Flood Risk in relation to Climate Change and Adaptation in the Netherlands

• Leonie Bolwidt•Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management•Rijkswaterstaat•Centre for Water Management

Toronto May 2008

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 2

Climate change scenarios, 2050

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 3

Sea level Rise (2100)

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 4

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 5

Consequences Sea level rise

• The sea level continues to rise, also after 2100!

• Increase in coastal erosion

• Increase salt intrusion• Maintain coastal defence• Discharging river water to the sea becomes increasingly difficult

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 6

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

jan feb mrt apr mei jun jul aug sep okt nov dec

afv

oe

r R

ijn (

m3

/s)

+1 +2

G G+

W W+

Rhine discharge at Lobith (2050)

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 7

Extreme discharges on the Rhine

Currently 16.000 m3/s

2100G - G+ about 18.000 m3/sW - W+ 19.000-20.000 m3/sLimitation of the discharge capacity, due to flooding in Germany

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 8

Subsidence in 2050

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 9

Land use in 2050

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 10

Increase in flood risk

from sea from the large rivers Increasing upward seepage Increase in economic value of (low parts) of the Netherlands

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 11

The National Adaptation Strategy (ARK)

Combined forces of 4 Ministries (Departments)Association of Provincial Authorities Association of Netherlands Municipalities Association of Water BoardsNon governmental organisationsPrivate sector- branch org. and “champions”Individual Provinces, cities, water boards etc.

Goal: Impuls to climate proofing the Netherlands

Focus here on floods/high water

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 12

The ARK ProgrammeLooking back: the milestonesTriggered by Senate March ’05

Start and political backing: conference with Prime Minister Nov. ’05

ARK Programmedoc. approved by Council of Ministers March ’06

Consultation first draft strategy at three government levels Oct. ’06

Draft strategy (incl. first outline agenda) March ’07

Consultation Stakeholders – over 50 regular meetings Apr.-Jn ’07

Final strategy in Council of Ministers Nov. ’07

Strategy in Parliament and Senate Nov. ’07

Second national congress Nov. ’07

• end of the strategy phase

• start of the agenda phase

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 13

The ARK process…Positioning the strategy

Pisano

Talenti

Giotto

Cathedral of Florence 1296-1887(bell tower)

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 14

Giotto

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 15

Pisano

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 16

Talenti

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 17

Goal: • Robustness Wide dikes

• Flexibility Easy to reboot electr.generators

• Adaptability Rapid proced., reserved space

The National Adaptation Strategy Analysis and leading principles - 1

Situation:• Probable trends Rise of sea level and

temperat.

• Extreme events Storms, high river dischargesCombinations of events

• Fundamental uncertainty Validity of statistics

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 18

The National Adaptation Strategy Analysis and leading principles - 2

Risk management - Absolute safety does not exist- Prevention + reduce effects- Adjust risk & cost-benefit analysis for long term

investmentsNatural systems- Use natural functions of soil, water and air,- Restore natural systems en buffering functions- Create win-win situations for large scale spatial

structures (nature, water safety, tourism, landscape, economic activities)

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 19

The National Adaptation StrategyGeneral actions

Start a public campaign for raising awareness Promote leading principles & stimulate research programs

Adjust procedures for decision making large scale developm. Assess projects in progress Review existing instruments (financial, legal)

Develop new instruments (revolving funds, stim. progr.) Small scale interventions (“climate buffers”) and “icons”

Monitor & evaluate the “transitions”

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 20

1. Open debate

Not: ‘for and by governments’ or a technocratic problem

The National Adaptation StrategyChoices made in the process...

2. Ongoing, planned, future investments, plans, policies

Not: just new investments and programmes

5. Mainstream in 10 years

Not: blueprint or series of projects for the coming 50 years

4. Adaptation mainly by ‘combining work with work’

Not (yet): megaprojects just for adaptation

3. Innovation parallel to practice

Not: sequential; first research, than policyframes, laws, implementation

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 21

The National Adaptation StrategyMainlines and theme-specific

actions KNMI-scenario’s: no major shift in investmentplans in West Nl.

We will take up the challenge NOW on ALL major effects:

1. Safety: spatial reservat. (long term) and speed up investments (short term)

Damage: more storagecapac.; experim. design, urban floodmngt; compart.

3. Quality of life/public health: green/blue veins in towns, subsid. restructr.

4. Nature: National Ecological Network: connect, transparent coat, EU-rules

2. Economy: reliable networks transport, electr.,water; key econ. areas access

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 22

Examples (innovative) solutions?Super dike in Japan

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 23

Examples (innovative) solutions?Climate robust spatial planning laws England

Levensduur bouwwerk

(jaar)

Zeespiegelstijging

10 0.1025 0.2050 0.40

100 0.85200 1.70

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 24

Examples (innovative) solutions?Freeways: high (compartments)

or deep (landscape)

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 25

Examples (innovative) solutions? Amphibian living

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 26

Examples (innovative) solutions?

Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 27

Last comments..

We must start with anticipating on the coming changes instead of reacting after disasters!Examples from other countries of anticipating to climate change?Interested in the reports? Leave your email address with me!

Thank you for your attention!

Leonie.Bolwidt@rws.nl