Gaming to StudyFlexing The X2 Standard

SWRCB Workshop on FlexingAugust 31, 2005

Outline of Presentation

• Why game?• Who participated in various games?• What was gamed?• How was gaming conducted?• Goals• Results

Why Game?• Responds to SWRCB request.• Test hypothesis that outflow flexibility can

allow for improved overall operational patterns, considering costs and benefits:– Species linked to average X2 position– Upstream flow fluctuations– Upstream carryover storage– Supplies for Projects and environment

• Gain insight into possible sideboards.

X2 vs . S te ady S tate De lta Outflow

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S te ady S tate De lta Outflo w, c fs

X2,

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den

Gat

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X2 vs . S te ady S tate De lta Outflow

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Port Chicago

Chipps Island

Confluence

ParticipationStakeholder (Game 1)• NOAA Fisheries• USFWS• DFG• DWR• USBR• EPA• SWC• MWD

• WWD• SLDMWA• Bay Institute• American River Water

Forum• SWRCB RepExport Contractor (Games 2

& 3)• SWP Export Contractors• CVP Export Contractors

What was Gamed?• Game 1(April 28, 2005).• Game 2 & 3 (April 29, 2005)• Episodes when compliance with X2 caused

large upstream releases from storage:– February 2003– April 2004

X2 Patterns: 2003 and 2004Delta X2 Position

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X2 P

ositi

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X2-Game X2-Base X2-Hist Roe Is Chipps Is Confluence

Roe Island Triggered

Roe Island Triggered

American R. Patterns 2003 & 2004American River Flow below Nimbus

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Flow

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Req'd Base Game

Roe Island Triggered

Roe Island Triggered

Process of Gaming• Spreadsheet model• Start from historic operations• Try a different operation• Track changes in flow and parameters related

to flow– X2– Species correlated to X2– Storage– Upstream flow patterns– Exports

Game 1 Description• February 2003 and April 2004• Primary goal: eliminate upward spike in

American River flows• Secondary goals:

– Game 1.1 Protect/enhance average X2 --Rerelease water for outflow ASAP

– Game 1.2 Enhance Folsom storage. Generate flow/export benefits in summer and fall.

Game 1.1 American R FlowsAmerican River Flow below Nimbus

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Req'd Base Game

Game 1.2 American R. FlowsAmerican River Flow below Nimbus

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Req'd Base Game

Game 1.1 ResultsFeb 2003 Apr 2004

Req’d/Historical/ Final X2 Days

25/26/26 18/23/21

Potential Exports (TAF) 0 0

Change in Folsom storage (TAF)

+27 Feb.-27 Feb–Mar

+51 Apr-51 May – Jun

Upstream benefits No flow spike-0.07 km (downstream)

No flow spikeChange in Feb – Jun X2 -0.08 km

(downstream)

Game 1.1Changes in Indices linked to X2

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2003 2004

Perc

ent

Longfin smeltAmerican shadPacific herringCrangon

Game 1.2 ResultsFeb 2003 Apr 2004

Req’d/Historical/ Final X2 Days

25/26/26 18/23/21

Potential Exports (TAF) 0 22

Change in Folsom storage (TAF)

+27 Feb.-27 Feb–Mar

+51 Apr-29 Aug – Nov-22 Post Nov

Upstream benefits No flow spike-0.07 km (downstream)

No flow spike. Boost fall releases

Change in Feb – Jun X2 +.06 km (upstream)

Game 1.2Changes in Indices linked to X2

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2003 2004

Perc

ent

Longfin smeltAmerican shadPacific herringCrangon

Game 2 Description• April 2004 only• Goals

– Eliminate upward spike in American SacrmentoRivers.

– Game 2.1 Protect/enhance average X2 --Rerelease water for outflow ASAP

– Game 2.2 Enhance upstream storage. Generate flow/export benefits in summer and fall.

Game 2.1 Keswick ReleasesSacramento River Flow below Keswick

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Game 2.2 Keswick ReleasesSacramento River Flow below Keswick

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Flo

w (c

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Req'd Base Game

Game 2.1 ResultsApr 2004

Req’d/Historical/ Final X2 Days

18/23/17

Potential Exports (TAF) 0

Change in upstream storage (TAF)

+172 April-172 May – June

Upstream benefits No flow spikesChange in Feb – Jun X2 -0.18 km (downstream)

Game 2.1Changes in Indices linked to X2

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Perc

ent

Longfin smeltAmerican shadPacific herringCrangon

Game 2.2 ResultsApr 2004

Req’d/Historical/ Final X2 Days

18/23/17

Potential Exports (TAF) 166

Change in upstream storage (TAF)

+172 April-172 Aug – Dec

Upstream benefits No flow spikes. Boost Fall flows upstream

Change in Feb– Jun X2 0.28 km (upstream)

Game 2.2Changes in Indices linked to X2

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2003

Perc

ent

Longfin smeltAmerican shadPacific herringCrangon

Game 3 Description• April 2004 only• Goals

– Eliminate upward spike in American, Sacramento and Feather Rivers.

– Game 3.1 Protect/enhance average X2 --Rerelease water for outflow ASAP.

– Game 3.3 Keep average X2 constant. Enhance upstream storage. Generate flow/export benefits in summer and fall.

Game 3.1 Feather FlowsFeather River Flow below Thermalito

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Game 3.3 Feather FlowsFeather River Flow below Thermalito

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Game 3.1 ResultsApr 2004

Req’d/Historical/ Final X2 Days

18/23/4

Potential Exports (TAF) 0

Change in upstream storage (TAF)

+322 April-172 April – June

Upstream benefits No flow spikesChange in Feb – Jun X2 -0.25 km (downstream)

Game 3.1Changes in Indices linked to X2

-3-2-10123

2003Perc

ent

Longfin smeltAmerican shadPacific herringCrangon

Game 3.3 ResultsApr 2004

Req’d/Historical/ Final X2 Days

18/23/4

Potential Exports (TAF) Approximately 90

Change in upstream storage (TAF)

+322 April-211 May – June111 July - Dec

Upstream benefits No flow spikes. Boost fall releases upstream

Change in Feb – Jun X2 -0.0 km

Game 3.3Changes in Indices linked to X2

-3-2-10123

2003Perc

ent

Longfin smeltAmerican shadPacific herringCrangon

Overcompliance

• Game 1 X2 std met despite “flex”• Game 2 X2 std nearly met despite 172 TAF

reduction in releases.• Conclusion. Lots of excess releases to

comply with X2.• Compared to simple compliance, impacts to

X2 indices are exaggerated.

Discussion

• A variety of flexes possible with various effects. – Reduce harmful upstream fluctuations– Move average X2 slightly upstream or

downstream.– Generate upstream storage for flow

enhancement, Project supply, EWA supply, etc.

End of Presentation

X2 Correlation Periods vsTypical Flex Period

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Months

Flounder

Caridean Shrimp

Longfin

Crangon Shrimp

American Shad

Typical Flex

Change in Population Index per km change in Average X2 over the Entire

Period

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1

Percent

Flounder

Caridean Shrimp

Longfin

Crangon Shrimp

American Shad

4 months3 months

6 months

3 months

4 months

lo ng fin s me lt

y = -0.0547x + 7.2093R2 = 0.7642

y = -0.0418x + 5.6301R2 = 0.5299

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pos t-c lam

The change in Average X2 is the width of this line.

ame ric an s had

LOGA = -0.0228X2 + 4.6031R2 = 0.5794

LOGA = -0.0059X2 + 3.744R2 = 0.0349

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