Five arrows for inclusive growth (aim presentation)1.3 (1) (1)
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Transcript of Five arrows for inclusive growth (aim presentation)1.3 (1) (1)
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FIVE ARROWS FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Calixto V. ChikiamcoPresident
Foundation for Economic FreedomMakati, Philippines
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Economic Growth has been robust for the past five years
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
4.4
2.9
3.6
5.0
6.7
4.8
5.2
6.6
4.2
1.1
7.6
3.7
6.87.2
6.1
GDP annual growth Source: World Bank
Average=6.3%
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Philippine GDP growth relative to other countries
2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
PhilippinesVietnamSingaporeMalaysiaChina
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But growth has not been inclusive
UNEMPLOYMENT and UNDEREMPLOYMENT RATESource: Philippine Statistics Authority
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q10
5
10
15
20
25
30
17.8%
6.4%
Underemployment rateUnemployment rate
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But growth has not been inclusive• Unemployment is still high
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But growth has not been inclusive• Poverty levels remain the same
2006 2009 2012 2014S1
26.5
26.3
25.2
25.8
POVERTY INCIDENCE (%)Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
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But growth has not been inclusiveDEGREE OF HUNGER IN HOUSEHOLDS, PH: Jul 1998-Jun 2015
Source: Social Weather Station
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Why?
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Growth has been consumption-driven, rather than investment-driven
GDP by Expenditure Shares at constant 2000 pricesSource: Philippine Statistics Authority
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Statistical Discrepancy
Net Exports
Capital Formation (FC + CI)
Government Final Consumption Expenditures
Household Final Consumption Expenditure
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Growth has been consumption-driven, rather than investment-driven
Gross Capital Formation (% of GDP)Source: World Bank
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
PhilippinesVietnamMalaysiaSingaporeThailand
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Agricultural growth and agricultural productivity remain low
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing, at constant 2000 prices and growth rate
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014630000
640000
650000
660000
670000
680000
690000
700000
710000
720000
730000
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0
-0.720000000000001
-0.16
2.592.82
1.09
1.59
In M
illio
n Pe
sos
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Agriculture value added per worker (con-stant 2005 US$)
Growth Rate
Agriculture value added per worker (constant 2005 US$)
Source: World Bank
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Share of Manufacturing has shrunk
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
25.70
20.52
Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)Source: World Bank
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Growth mainly in the services sector, but apart from BPO sector which benefit mainly the college-educated, productivity in the service sector is lower than that of industry
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Labor Productivity at constant 2000 pricesSource: Philippine Statistics Agency, Labor Force Survey
2010 2011 2012 20130
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
AHFFIndustryServices
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Therefore, to achieve inclusive growth, reduce poverty, generate jobs, and lower hunger, we have to:
make economic growth investment-driven, rather than consumption-driven
tackle the problem of low agricultural productivity
increase the share of manufacturing (to generate good jobs)
make our industries competitive
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How to achieve inclusive growth?
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Shinzo Abe’s
THREE MAGICAL ARROWS
Fiscal stimulusMonetary EasingStructural Reforms
Image source: The Economist
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Five Arrows for Inclusive Growth
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FIRST ARROW: Openness to foreign investment
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FIRST ARROW: Openness to foreign investment
Remove the Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership in the 1987 Constitution– Why?
• current restrictions in the Constitution protects monopolies in capital intensive strategic industries, such as ports, airports, telecoms, shipping, e.g. duopoly in telecom sector
• WB’s Bocchi: Monopolies in strategic industries crimp forward-linking and backward linking industries.
Liberalize as much as possible all other restrictions on foreign investment, including the foreign investment negative list, the retail trade law, the practice of professions, and even immigration rules.
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FIRST ARROW: Openness to foreign investment
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PhilippinesVietnamMalaysiaSingaporeThailand
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$)Source: World Bank
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Gross Savings and Gross Capital Formation (% of GDP)Source: World Bank
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
43
20
Gross savingsGross capital formation
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FIRST ARROW: Openness to foreign investment
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.4500.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
2013 FDI RR Index (Closed = 1; Open = 0)
2012
Inw
ard
FDI S
tock
s (%
of G
DP)
Mor
e FD
I
More Open
2013 FDI Restrictiveness IndexSources: OECD Statistics and IMF estimates
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SECOND ARROW: Modernize the labor code
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SECOND ARROW: Modernize the labor code
The existing labor code suffers from two major defects:
1. setting up high minimum wages unrelated to productivity
2. labor permanency after six months
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Minimum wages: job killer
• Paqueo,et al. (2014)– generally, Minimum wage is not always helpful to
the common man and the disadvantaged– Minimum wage reduces the demand for workers in
small firms.– Minimum wage decreases the chance of the
young, female, low educated and inexperienced workers being hired
– The rise in minimum wage results in lower household income (20 percent reduction based on our computation).
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Minimum wages: job killer
• Dr. John Nye: Minimum wages hampers industrialization or the movement of surplus labor in the countryside to industry.– Manufacturing share to GDP has shrunk from
26% in the 1980s to 21% in 2014.– Migrant labor going to low-paid, low-level service
jobs – e.g. gasoline boy, selling DVDs or banana cue, etc.
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Minimum wages – job killer
• Dr. Gerry Sicat: Labor rigidities dampen demand for labor and make country unattractive to labor-intensive industries.
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SECOND ARROW: Modernize the labor code
Result?- Industry cannot create jobs- Workers can’t learn; contractualization - Shift from agriculture to industry impeded
Who benefits?– the monopolists use high minimum wages to deter
competition– Relatively small proportion of labor force at expense
of unemployed
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SECOND ARROW: Modernize the labor code
SUGGESTED POLITICALLY FEASIBLE SOLUTIONSGerry Sicat’s proposed special economic zones where
LMW and labor security suspended in labor surplus areasLiberalize the apprenticeship law
Length of time for training Pay at 75% of LMWOpen to other industries
Pass HB 5468 or the JobStart Act by Rep. Nograles18-24 yrs. old high school graduates with less than one year
working experienceThree months technical skills training with allowance of P200Training graduates to be hired at a pay rate of 75% of LMW
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THIRD ARROW: Improve Agricultural
Productivity
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THIRD ARROW: Improve Agricultural Productivity
Why Low Agricultural productivity?1. Uncertainty of property rights due to CARP
• never-ending extension of CARP, collective CLOAs, non-bankability of CLOAs
2. CARP Prohibition of ownership beyond five has.• efficient farmers cannot buy out inefficient ones
3. NFA monopoly of rice importation; 70% of agriculture budget going to low-value commodity, rice.
4. Restrictions on the rural land market: agri patent law.
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Domestic and world price of rice (peso/kg), 1990-2010
Source: IRRILifted from PIDS Policy Notes No. 2011-11
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THIRD ARROW: Improve Agricultural Productivity
End CARP (to end uncertainty over property rights) and Amend CARP
Fabella: allow CARP beneficiaries to lease their land
Allow CARP beneficiaries to sell their usufruct rights to land
Repurpose DAR to do land consolidation
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Dismantle NFA monopoly on rice importation, tariffy rice imports, direct aid to rice farmers, rely on trade for food security, and focus R & D on high value-added crops.
THIRD ARROW: Improve Agricultural Productivity
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THIRD ARROW: Improve Agricultural Productivity
Amend the Agricultural Patent Law:
Remove restrictions on conveyance of agricultural patents
Five years restriction on saleRestriction by right to repurchase: non-
bankability of free patent agri lands (about 2 million titles)
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FOURTH ARROW: Competitive Exchange Rate
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FOURTH ARROW: Competitive Exchange Rate
NOT capital controls, NOT managed exchange rate BUT GOVERNMENT POLICY TO MAKE THE PESO COMPETITIVE.
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FOURTH ARROW: Competitive Exchange Rate
How? Coordinated government response (BSP+executive) Massive infrastructure spending to drive the demand for
capital imports and dollars and lower the cost of doing business in the Philippines.
Rice import liberalization to increase demand for dollars, lower food prices, and dampen wage adjustment rate pressures
BSP aggressive purchasing of dollars Fabella and Abola: Money creation through purchases of dollars not
inflationary due to liberalized trade regime. World is facing structural deflation. Fabella: BSP fighting the last war.
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FOURTH ARROW: Competitive Exchange Rate
Other structural reforms to reduce the cost of doing business in the Philippines:ChaCha to improve competition and lower prices
in strategic industries
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Benefits of a competitive exchange rate
• Increased purchasing power of OFWs – boost retail, real estate, and education sectors
• Make BPOs and other exports more competitive• Protect local industry; deter smuggling with high
import prices• Protect domestic high-value added sectors like
agriculture. • Shield domestic industry from AFTA while working
on issues like port congestion, poor infrastructure, etc.
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FIFTH ARROW: Institutional Reform
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FIFTH ARROW: Institutional Reform
Why?Weak state capacity is a big binding constraint
to growth.
Cases in pointGovernment under spending, DOTC failures in
airports, MRT, LTO etc., NTC allowing mergers in telecoms, creating duopolies (regulatory capture), ERC favouring the oligarchy.
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FIFTH ARROW: Institutional Reform
How? Strengthen the political party system
Law against turncoatism; public financing of political parties, public financing of electoral campaigns.
Solve the collective action problem of the political class. Strengthens political accountability.
(Parties behind development miracles – PAP in Singapore, UMNO in Malaysia, CCP in China, Koumintang in Taiwan, Golkar in Indonesia, LDP in Japan.
Dismantle private armies; reduce political dynasties Professionalize the bureaucracy (limit political appointments) Strengthen separation of powers
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Chinese formula for hypergrowth
1. Openness to foreign investment2. Flexible wage rates3. Property rights reform in agriculture4. Competitive exchange rate
+ for Philippines: 5. institutional reform
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Summary
FIVE ARROWS
Openness to foreign investment
Modernize the labor code
Improve agricultural productivity
Competitive exchange rate
Institutional Reform
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End of Presentation
Contact Details:Foundation for Economic Freedom, Inc. 105 Philippine Social Science Center (PSSC) Commonwealth Ave., Diliman, Quezon City 1101
Telefax: (632) 4532375 (Main Office) Tel No.: (632) 8939602 (Accounting)Website: www.fef.org.phEmail: [email protected] page: www.facebook.com/FoundationforEconomicFreedomTwitter: @RPeconfreedom