Fisheries Ecosystem Models: Technical Details and Prospects for Partnerships Howard Townsend, Ph.D....
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Transcript of Fisheries Ecosystem Models: Technical Details and Prospects for Partnerships Howard Townsend, Ph.D....
Fisheries Ecosystem
Models: Technical
Details and Prospects for Partnerships
Howard Townsend, Ph.D.
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office (NMFS)
- Cooperative Oxford Lab
(NOS/NCCOS)January 15, 2008
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
"It was the Law of the Sea, they said. Civilization ends at the waterline. Beyond that, we all enter the food chain, and not always right at the top."
-Dr. Hunter S. Thompson
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Presentation Outline
• Introduction– Chesapeake Bay Fisheries Ecosystem Model– NOAA/NMFS Ecosystem Modeling and International
Efforts: • NEMoW• UN Reports
• Technical Details (Major Models/Model Types/Software)– Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)– Atlantis– Gadget
• Opportunities for Partnerships– NEMoW Members– Plans for future NEMoW
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
CB Fisheries Ecosystem Model
• Developed in cooperation between NOAA CBO/Oxford, CRC, UBC with support from many bay researchers using Ecopath with Ecosim software (code base)
• A companion to the CB Fisheries Ecosystem Plan• Technical report (230 p) completed/in review • Chesapeake Bay tidal waters• 45 functional groups • Replicates ecosystem history 1950 – present
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Inputs and Links to EwE
Input
Monitoring
Stock assessment
Literature
CBREEM
Mediation
Forcing
Habitat and water quality (e.g., SAV, DO)
Management
scenarios
Ecopath
Ecosim
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Chesapeake Bay Regional Estuarine Ecology Model (CBREEM)
• Purpose– Generate historical patterns in primary productivity for
EwE
• Introduction & Methods – Two layer, simple hydrographic model (monthly time steps
for 50+ years)– Use wind, rainfall, gage inflow, and relative loading
as inputs– Solve for equilibrium velocity fields on Richardson grids
and make chemical mass-balanced calculations (Wright et al. 1986, Hunter and Hearn 1991)
• Results– Chla (used as nutrient loading forcing function for
EwE)
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Forcing Data (Input) for CBREEM
• Wind– Thomas Point, Maryland (TPLM2, 1985-2002, NOAA
National Buoy Data Center) and trigonometric functions (1950-1985)
• Rainfall – Monthly average from ten stations (1950-1997, NOAA
National Climate Data Center) and a reference index in Washington D.C. (1998-2002)
• Gage inflow– Nine gauged rivers (USGS)
• Relative loading (Nitrogen)– 1984 to 2003 from monitoring (average: 0.9126 mg/l)– Susquehanna river (1945-1984) from Dr. Hagy– Other eight rivers (1945-1984) – monthly average from
1984 to 2003
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Model Interface
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Nu
trie
nt
loa
din
g (
re
lati
ve
)
Chla
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Summary
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109
Months (1985-1994)
Bio
ma
ss
(to
n/k
m^
2)
Input
Monitoring
Stock assessment
Literature
CBREEMMediation
Forcing
Habitat and water quality (e.g., SAV, DO) Managemen
t
scenarios
Ecopath
Ecosim
Habitat mediation for blue crab YOY via SAV Physical forcing through DO for striped bass
Menhaden B changes under different SB Fs
DO data (1985-2006)
Long-term forcing function Sij4
6
8
10
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109
Months (1985-1994)
Bio
ma
ss
(to
n/k
m^
2)
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
0 2 4 6 8
DO
fc (
DO
)
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
CBFEM Plans
Applications• Support development of ecosystem-based fisheries management plan• Tool for exploring ecosystem impacts of fisheries management
decisions in developing EBFM• Provide guidance in identifying research, monitoring and assessment
needs
Development• Review of current model data (basic input, drivers, and validation)
guided by EMTAP under the purview of FSC• Improve data and ensure we have adequately mined data (Maddy)• Link FEM with Water Quality and other physico-chemical models
(Hongguang)• Explore other ecological, climatological, etc. impacts on the
Chesapeake fisheries ecosystem
The ultimate goal is to use CBFEM (and other ecosystem management models) in a process similar to single species stock assessment models. The CBFEM will be developed, reviewed, applied and updated on a regular cycle with oversight from a technical committee.
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
NOAA/NMFS and International Ecosystem Modeling Efforts
Fisheries Ecosystem Modeling is new and needs regulatory/management foundations
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
NOAA Ecosystem Modeling Team
Funding NEMoW– National Ecosystem Modeling
Workshop– Approved and Sponsored by
NMFS Science Advisory Board Meeting
– 1st meeting August 2007 to exchange ideas on approaches and develop best practices for fisheries ecosystem/multi-species models
– A national workshop to standardize methodologies and approaches when using ecosystem, bio-physical and multispecies models
– Responsive to a wide range of calls for EAM/EAF/IEA/etc.
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Why NEMOW?
• There have been only limited and ad hoc efforts to provide a standardized approach for Eco/MS models:– software packages– recommendations for use– parameterization protocols– validation protocols– data requirements
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Stock/Single Species
EcosystemMulti-species Aggregate Biomass
SS models, forget ecosystem issues
Messy Picture Here
Gadids
FlatfishPelagics
Gradient of Possibilities
Multiple SS assessments in
“harmony”
SS assessments with explicit M2 or habitat or climate
considerations
Multi-species assessments
Aggregate Biomass Models
Whole System Models, forget
pop dy
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
What – NEMoW Products
• Workshop Report – Howard Townsend, Jason Link, Kenric Osgood, Todd
Gedamke, George Watters, Jeff Polovina, Phil Levin, Ned Cyr, and Kerim Aydin. 2008 (Submitted). Report on NOAA National Ecosystem Modeling Workshop. NOAA/NMFS Technical Memorandum)
• Evaluation of Models• Recommendations for National EM
Standards/Guidelines of use & review• Recommendations for Standardized
Approaches
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
International Efforts
• United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization– Report on Classes/Categories and
uses of Ecosystem Models for Fisheries (out Aug 2007) Reference: Plagányi 2007. Models for an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries. FAO Fisheries Technical paper 477 →
– Report of Modelling Ecosystem Interactions for Informing an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries: Best Practices in Ecosystem Modeling, Tivoli, July 3-6, 2007 (out soon)
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Conclusions from External Efforts
• Ecosystem Models and Management Advice– Conceptual/understanding: of the structure, functioning and
interactions of the ecosystem, or sub-system, under consideration. May not be used explicitly in decision-making or scientific advice but forms the underlying context for any detailed management planning and decision-making
– Strategic decisions: linked to policy goals and are generally long-range, broadly-based and inherently adaptable
– Tactical decisions: aimed at the short-term (e.g. next 3-5 years), linked to an operational objective and in the form of a rigid set of instructions e.g. tactical decision to change quota
• Model typesI. Whole ecosystem models: models that attempt to take into
account all trophic levels in the ecosystemII. Minimum Realistic Models (MRM): limited number of species
most likely to have important interactions with a target species of interest
III. Dynamic System Models (Biophysical): represent both bottom-up (physical) and top-down (biological) forces interacting in an ecosystem
IV. Extensions of single-species assessment models (ESAM): expand on current single-species assessment models taking only a few additional inter-specific interactions into account
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Conclusions from NMFS & International Efforts
Belie f in m od e l
Insi
gh
ts g
ain
ed
“Pure skeptic” “Believer”
“Realist”
Pyrrho 360-270 BCE
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Technical Details (Major Models/Model Types/Software)
EwE, Atlantis, and Gadget
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
EwE: An Overview
Data Model Research Application
Biol.: B, P/B, Q/B, diet.
Fleet catches
Manual
Ecoranger
Automatic
Pedigree
M.Carlo
Vulnerability, mediation, …
Mass-balance (Ecopath)
Time-dynamic(Ecosim)
Spatial-dynamic(Ecospace)
Nutrient-O2
seagrass, …
Habitat preference,
dispersal, migration etc.
Spatial cost of fishing
Prim.prod.(SeaWIFS)
Runoff, nutri-ents, depth, …
Persistent pollutants
Tracer-dynamic
(Ecotrace)
Who eats whom?Network analysis
Biol. & fishing time series
Fisheries vs.environment
Protectedarea dynamics. Spatial effort
allocation
Environmental time series
Policy exploration
Economics,social info.
Fisheriesmanagement
Functionalresponse, etc.
Ocean zoning
Academic (ecol. theory)
MPA size(Ecoseed)
Legend:
Facultative input
Optional input
Seaso-nality
Sensitivityanalysis
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
EwE - Simpler Overview
• ECOPATH– Began with Polovina 1984, updated by Christensen and Pauly
(early 1990s) - statistics added until current (year 2000) version. But basic equations are unchanged (and well-examined) for over 10 years.
• ECOSIM (and ECOSPACE) – Recent work to make a food web dynamic, theory and practice
new (some is un-reviewed with ad-hoc corrections).– Designed for quick running and exploring policy scenarios
• Strengths– Unified format is strength– Recent re-programming (Visual Basic 6→ .NET) October 2007
• Allows easier access to code and • Facilitates 2-way model coupling (interoperability)• Enhanced visualization
– Developers are creating basic database-driven models of all LMEs
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Practical Application of EwE: Ecosystem Trophic Modeling
• Ecopath is used to organize data (esp. historical) on trophic interactions and population sizes. Has routines for entry of key data on the biology and exploitation of ecosystem groups, and for creating a mass-balance “snapshot” of an ecosystem.
• Ecosim builds dynamic predictions by combining the data with foraging arena theory. Provides dynamic simulation of effect changes in fishing or environmental regimes may have on fisheries catches (volume and value) and the abundance of various groups in the ecosystem.
• Ecospace for addressing spatial policy questions, esp. marine protected areas.
• Ecotrace for exploring ecosystem effects of persistent pollutants
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
What are the strengths of EwE model approach?• Ecosim is freely available, large user community• Improved understanding of data systems (multiple
agency, multiple scale data assimilation)• Functional response parameterization is very
flexible, much more advanced than many published forms
• Simulates a wide variety of fishing scenarios, including spatial management in Ecospace
• Simulates changes in production regimes• Ability to represent age structure for many groups• Biomass dynamics of whole ecosystem considered,
see both direct effects and side effects of scenarios• Broad user-group
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Ecosystem models can improve our understanding of interactions between species, climate, fishing, and habitat.
The Atlantis ecosystem model (Fulton et al. 2004) is a strategic tool used to:
1. synthesize this information; 2. simulate possible ecosystem responses;3. identify key processes that govern ecosystem condition
Atlantis is programmed in C++ and is freely available (and become increasingly well-documented)
Atlantis (code base)
Science, Service, & Stewardship
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
ab
cd
efg
3-dimensional structure of model
abcdefg0 m50
100150
550
1200
2400
200
Daily oceanographic fluxes(water, heat, salt)
into and out of each box arecontrolled by a ROMSoceanographic modelBiogeochemistry
Hydrographicsubmodel
Communitysubmodel
Habitat
Fisheriessubmodel
Climate and oceanography
Managementsubmodel
Assessment and policy decisions
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Uses for Atlantis: Management Strategy Evaluation
Ecology and
Fishing Simulator(Atlantis)
Monitoring and Indicators
Assessments and Parameter Estimation
Implementation
Observations
1 year cycle
Observations
1 year cycle1 yr
cycle
Assessments and Parameter Estimation
Management policies: quotas,
effort limits, MPAs
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Pros• Flexible options for predation, reproduction, growth, gape limitation
• MSE (monitoring, assessments, indicators, economics, management)
• Nutrient handling, and interfaces with ROMS oceanography output (and other hydrodynamics model output)
•Migrations out of region
Cons•Build time (6-12 months)
•Run time (hours- days)
•Lacks balancing routines
•Cumbersome parameterization
Atlantis – Pros & Cons
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
GADGET
• Forward simulation model• Create a virtual population within the model• Follow the fish through their lives
– Fishing, mortality, growth, maturation, etc.
• Process driven– E.g. percentage becoming mature, not percentage mature
at age
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GADGET - Software
• Written in C++• Can be run under UNIX/Linux and PC (using cygwin)• Source code has to be downloaded, and then compiled on
local computer• Code has been used for many years – well tested• Documentation and examples available on-line• Graphics not included in package – only numerical output• Further development of code not decided at the moment –
main programmers have got new jobs
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Gadget - Strengths
• Flexible tool• May integrate a wide variety of information on different
resolution (biological/spatial/temporal)• Model and data independent• Well documented• Suitable for modelling systems with a few main
species/interactions (e.g. boreal ecosystems)• Age data not needed• Gaps in data/knowledge may be identified – no hidden
assumptions
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Opportunities for Parterships
NEMoW Steering Committee,Current Software Developers
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Potential Partners in NEMoW (NMFS)
• NEMoW Steering Committee (NMFS)– Jason Link Northeast FSC– Howard Townsend NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office– Kerim Aydin Alaska FSC– Ned Cyr Office of Science &
Technology– Kenric Osgood Office of Science &
Technology– Todd Gedamke Southeast FSC– Jeff Polovina Pacific Islands FSC– Phil Levin Northwest FSC– George Watters Southwest FSC
• NEMoW Web Site– http://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/st7/nemow.htm
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NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Potential Partners for Software Development
• Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) – Villy Christensen, University of British Columbia Fisheries
Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia
• Atlantis– Beth Fulton, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation, Hobart, Tasmania
• GADGET - Globally applicable Area Disaggregated General Ecosystem Toolbox, www.hafro.is/gadget– Bjarte Bogstad, Institute of Marine Research, Bergen,
Norway