Fiscal Policies, Revenues and Expenditure

8/19/2019 Fiscal Policies, Revenues and Expenditure

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S. Batool Fatima

Mujtaba Siddiqui

Isra Imtiaz

Shariq Jawed

Muhammad Ahmed


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ContentsINTRODUCTION........................................................................................................... 3

DEFINING FISCAL POLICY:........................................................................................3

Types of sca po!cy:............................................................................................... 3O"#ECTI$ES OF FISCAL POLICY................................................................................ 3

COLLECTION OF RE$ENUES:....................................................................................%

E&PENDITURE..........................................................................................................%

'()*s t! p+esent........................................................................................................,

Ente+!n- /s0a++af1s E+a.........................................................................................(

O2e+2!e of /s0a++af1s F!sca Po!cy...................................................................(

Re2en/es........................................................................................................... '*

I4pact on In5/st+y.............................................................................................'6

F!sca Pe+fo+4ance 5/+!n- 6**)............................................................................'3

F"R Ta7 Coect!on an5 Ref/n5s 5/+!n- 6**)8*(...................................................'%

F!sca Pe+fo+4ance 6**(.......................................................................................'%

FISCAL PERFORANCE 6*'*................................................................................. ',

FISCAL PERFORANCE 6*''................................................................................. '9

Pa!stan Ta7 Re2en/e 6*'6;'3..............................................................................'(

Pa!stan Ta7 Re2en/e 6*'3;'%..............................................................................6*

Pa!stan Ta7 Re2en/e 6*'%;',..............................................................................6*

Ta7 E2as!on............................................................................................................66

E7pen5!t/+es: 6**);p+esent.................................................................................. 63


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INTRODUCTIONF!sca po!cy !s a 2e+y !4po+tant co4ponent of o2e+a econo4!c f+a4eo+ of

co/nt+y. !n!st+y of nance 4aes sca po!c!es an5 !4pe4ent !t !n o+5e+ to

stae+ent secto+s of t0e

co/nt+y.

DEFINING FISCAL POLICY: Acco+5!n- to Sa4/eson? t0e A4e+!can econo4!st?

@F!sca Po!cy !s conce+ne5 !t0 a t0ose a++an-e4ents 0!c0 a+e a5opte5 5eBat!on.

In s0o+t sca po!cy +efe+s to coect!on of +eso/+ces !nc/5!n- fo+e!-n a!5s

an5 spen5 !t fo+ t0e p/e+ent secto+s !e e5/cat!on? 0eat0? !nf+ast+/ct/+e?

5efense? etc.


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6 P+o5/c!n- e4poy4ent oppo+t/n!t!es an5 s/ppo+t of poo+ secto+

3 Econo4!c -+ot0 poss!


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ast!n- !4pact. Once t0e 4oney !s spent? !t !s -one an5 t0e e>ect on t0e

econo4y !s s!4py a s0o+t;te+4 one.

'()*s t! p+esent

During the period from1988 to 1999, the country experienced four changes in civilian

governments. Until 1993, when the country had the first PPP government 1988 to 199!" and thefirst P#$ government 199!%1993", government expenditures remained high, at a&out 1! percent

of the 'DP. (evenues also fell slightly &ut fiscal policy continued to &e expansionary. )ince

1993, we o&serve a declining trend in government expenditures as well as in revenues. *he

&udget deficit had started to shrin+ even &efore the present military government too+ over. *hisdecline in government &udget deficit perhaps also reflects the macroeconomic adustments that

the country undertoo+ under the -# restructuring program. iscal policy &ecame relatively lessexpansionary during this period. *he decline in government expenditures &ecame sharper afterthe present military government too+ office of the chief executive of the country. )ince then,

revenues also declined at a faster rate &ut the decline in revenues was not as sharp as it was in

expenditures so that the &udget deficit as a percentage of 'DP declined sharply from a&out / percent in 1999 to a&out 3 percent in 0!!. iscal policy has clearly &ecome less expansionary.

2n the &asis of the trends that we o&served a&ove, it appears that deli&erate attempts to control

fiscal deficit in Pa+istan started only from 1993 when expenditures were cut. Until 1999, fiscaldeficit remained a&ove percent of the 'DP, &ut declined more rapidly over the six years of

present government. *his reflects the governments resolve to reduce fiscal deficit to 4ero &y the

year 0!!/ and maintain a surplus thereafter. iscal policy is expected to remain less

expansionary in the near future.-n the 199!s the growth rate tum&led largely &ecause of decline in capital inflows and a

num&er of other factors5 including persistent lapses in implementation of structural reforms and

sta&ili4ation measures. *hus in terms of economic growth, the period came to &e +nown as the6lost decade.

*he worsening law and order situation during the 199!s affected not only the security of

life, property and honor of individuals, &ut it also created difficulties in entering into contracts


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and their enforcement. -n the wa+e of internal insta&ility and udicial lacunas, investors, &oth

domestic and foreign, could not exploit investment opportunities in the country. (ampant

corruption and worsening standards of governance of almost all national institutions amounted toa prohi&itive cost of doing &usiness in the country.

Pa+istans credi&ility was also on the decline externally in general, &ut particularlyamong the -nternational inancial -nstitutions and also domestically with the general pu&lic.

7greements signed &y successive governments with the -# and the orld an+ were &reachedmore often than implemented. *ough decisions to end su&sidies, to remove price distortions,

mo&ili4e domestic resources, widen the tax &ase, eliminate discretionary controls, were avoided

with the result that the cumulative impact of these deferred decisions eroded the productive &ase

of the economy and created a large credi&ility gap vis%:%vis the -nternational inancial-nstitutions/.

ithdrawals from foreign currency deposits of resident Pa+istanis were suspended in #ay, 1998.

*his antagoni4ed an important class of investors

-n fact despite a high rate of economic growth, the 198!s was a period of missed opportunities,and the legacy the economic managers of this period left for those who followed was not anenvia&le one. irst was the rising fiscal deficit, the result of a very large increase in government

expenditure including defense", which left a crushing de&t &urden on the economy. )econd, if

the needed economic reforms to achieve macro &alance and competitiveness had &een initiatedwhen the economy was in a relatively strong position it would have lessened the &urden on the

economy and the people of underta+ing these reforms when the economy was in a relatively

much wea+er position.

;uxtaposed to a difficult and trying economic environment, the 199!s saw a slowing

down of economic growth &ecause of shoc+s &eyond the control of economic managers. *here

had &een large fluctuations and a decline in cotton production which was persistently hit &y pestattac+s, continuing slowing down of remittance inflows, &ad weather conditions which directly

affected agricultural production and economic sanctions after Pa+istans nuclear explosion in

#ay 1998. re


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*he tax revenue has surpassed the target for the third year in a row &ut nominal 'DP is

increasing at a faster pace than tax collections therefore the tax%to%'DP ratio remained almost

stagnant.

*he resource mo&ili4ation had &een much short of our re and =!> per annum on average.

FISCAL INDICATORS: REVENUES

?aria&les@Aears 19/!s 198!s 199!s 0!!!s

Percent of 'DP

*ax 11.= 13.0 13.! 10. Bon%*ax 0.3 3.5 =.0 =.!


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(evenues 13./ 15.8 1/.0 15.=

'rants !.5 !./ !.3 !.9

Total Revenues

+Grants

1=.3 1/.5 1/.5 1/.=

Sources CD _ ROM IFS [2006], and Economic survey of a!is"an various issues

Trends in Expenditure

*he 'overnment is moving ahead on its agenda to improve expenditure management and fiscal

transparency. *he total expenditure remains more or less sta&le in a narrow &and of 1/ to 18.8

percent of 'DP during the last seven years. )u&stantial decline in interest payments from as high

as /. percent of 'DP in 1998%99 to 0./ percent of 'DP in 0!!5%!/, has provided fiscal space to

re%orient. Cxpenditure in favor of development expenditure. (esultantly the share of current

expenditure in total expenditure declined from 89 percent of total expenditure in 1998%99 to /0

percent in 0!!5%!/. -n addition, the share of development expenditure more than dou&led from

11 percent to 08 percent in the same period. *he development expenditure &ore the &runt ofstructural adustment of the 199!s as it declined from as high as /. percent of 'DP in 1991%90

to 0. percent of 'DP &y 1999%0!!!. During the last seven years the development expenditure

improved from 0.0 percent of 'DP in 0!!!%!1 to =.9 percent of 'DP in 0!!5%!/. )econd largest

component of the current expenditure, namely, defense spending remained stagnant at around 3.1

percent to 3.3 percent of 'DP during the last seven years. *his shows strong focus of the

government on removing infrastructural &ottlenec+s and &uilding physical assets. *he

'overnment is achieving the goal of fiscal sta&ili4ation without compromising spending on the

social sector. Bon%defense%noninterest expenditure has improved from /.8 percent of 'DP in

1999%0!!! to 11.9 percent of 'DP in 0!!5%!/.

2ne thing was common &etween these two decades that development expenditure was the victim

of all sorts of fiscal consolidation and expenditure rationali4ation. *he current expenditure

increased su&stantially in the 198!s &ut could not +eep pace &ecause of slowdown in the growth


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and stagnation of revenues in the 199!s. Defense expenditure in terms of percent of 'DP was

rising in the 198!s &ut since then declined throughout the 199!s &ut sta&ili4ed during the last

seven years. *he nondefense non%interest expenditure was persistently declining since the 198!s

&ecause of rising defense spending and interest payments. *he com&ined impact of two

committed expenditure items defense and interest payments" went as high as 9 percent of total

expenditure and 55 percent of current expenditure in 1998%99. *his has declined to ust 30 percent and =3 percent, respectively in0!!5%!/ which indicate a paradigm shift in allocation of

expenditure among priority sectors as a result of growing fiscal space.

Trends in Real Expenditure

*he nominal monetary value of expenditure is a direct charge on &udget &ut the composition of

expenditure in real terms after adusting for inflation" provides real food for thought. 7n

analysis of real growth patterns in expenditure reveals some interesting facts. *otal real

expenditure grew at a &ris+ pace of /./ percent per annum, on average, in the 198!s owing to

sharp acceleration of 1!. percent in real current expenditure. Development expenditure grew &y

modest 0./ percent on average in real terms &ut interest payments grew &y 18.1 percent,

reflecting tremendous pace of accumulation of pu&lic de&t.

-nterestingly, real defense spending followed the higher growth path and grew &y 8.9 percent on

average. )uch a level of fiscal indiscipline in the past forced Pa+istan to undergo a painful period

of structural adustment in the 199!s.

Ente+!n- /s0a++af1s E+aA so/n5 sca pos!t!on !s an essent!a p+e;+eH/!s!te fo+ ac0!e2!n- 4ac+oecono4!c

sta

sca 4ana-e4ent can 4o

+eso/+ce aocat!on an5 0ep 4eet 5e2eop4ent -oas. A a7 sca po!cy on t0e

ot0e+ 0an5? can ea5 to 0!-0e+ !nBat!on? 0!-0e+ !nte+est +ates an5 c+o5!n- o/t of

p+!2ate !n2est4ent? a of 0!c0 0a4pe+ -+ot0 an5 po2e+ty +e5/ct!on. T0e

!4po+tance of a so/n5 sca po!cy t0e+efo+e? cannot


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po!cy +efo+4s

+e2en/e s!5e an5 pa+ty to t0e +at!ona!=at!on of e7pen5!t/+e pa+t!c/a+y !n t0e

s0!ft!n- of e7pen5!t/+e f+o4 c/++ent to 5e2eop4ent an5 ea2!n- t0e tota

e7pen5!t/+e to +e4a!n sta-nant at a+o/n5 ') pe+cent of GDP. Go!n- fo+a+5? a

f/+t0e+ +e5/ct!on !n sca 5ec!t 4/st co4e f+o4 !4p+o2e4ent !n +e2en/e. T0e

!4p+o2e4ent !n ta7 e>o+t s0o/5 not


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Re2en/es

TAX AND TARIFF REFORMS

A5eH/ate e2e of +e2en/e -ene+at!on !s a 4/st fo+ t0e p/-oo5s. In Pa!stan1s econo4!c 0!sto+y /nt! fa!+y +ecenty? t0e 4!s4atc0

+efo+4s an5 o+e5 on sca t+anspa+ency? a!4e5 at +e5/c!n- ta7 +ates? +e5/c!n- t0e cost of 5o!n-


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!nt+o5/c!n- /n!fo+4!ty of GST +ate? an5 cont!n/o/s +e5/ct!on an5 +at!ona!=at!on of

!4po+t ta+!> +ates. As a +es/t of t0e !5e;+an-!n- ta7 an5 ta+!> +efo+4s as e as

+efo+4s !n t0e ta7 a54!n!st+at!on ta7 coect!on


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a/to4at!on of


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• UREA an5 DAP p+!ces ept o : T0e -o2e+n4ent s/

5/+!n- sca yea+ 6**)8*( +es/t!n- !n 4o5est GDP -+ot0 of 6.* pe+cent 0!c0 !s

+eat!2ey sat!sfacto+y? 0en ooe5 at !n t0e conte7t of t0e p+e2aent -o


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F"R Ta7 Coect!on an5 Ref/n5s 5/+!n- 6**)8*(F!sca yea+ 6**)8*( as a c0aen-!n- yea+ fo+ t0e econo4y as a 0oe as 4ost of

t0e 4ac+oecono4!c ta+-ets 7e5 fo+ sca yea+ 6**)8*( e+e 4!sse5. S!nce

+e2en/e +ea!=at!on !s !ne5 !t0 t0e 4ac+oecono4!c f+a4eo+ of t0e co/nt+y? t0e

a52e+se !4pact on t0e econo4y 5!st/+

'',9

ta+-et. It !s cea+ f+o4 Ta

a

6?*9).6


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+e-!ste+e5 a -+ot0 of 66.3 pe+cent? a55!n- Rs. '?%96.)

6**(8'*. Non8ta7 +e2en/e e70!

o+5e+ s!t/at!on? F"R 0as 4ana-e5 to coect a s/4 of a+o/n5 Rs. '?369.%

0!c0 as '%.3 pe+cent 0!-0e+ t0an t0e coect!on of p+e2!o/s yea+ at0o/-0 66.%

pe+cent 0!-0e+ +ef/n5s e+e pa!5

C$T +ate f+o4 6 pe+cent to % pe+cent.

• GST on s/-a+ as +e5/ce5 f+o4 ' pe+cent to ) pe+cent f+o4 A/-/st? 6**(?

0!c0 ne-at!2ey a>ecte5 +e2en/e +ea!=at!on

• Re5/ct!on of GST +ate on teeco44/n!cat!on f+o4 6' pe+cent to '(., pe+cent

ne-at!2ey a>ecte5 +e2en/e +ea!=at!on

p+o


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issues ad sigi#!atl" low de$elo%met e&%editure etc. Moe2e+? t0e

coect!on as '9.%J 0!-0e+ t0an t0e coect!on of Rs. '?369.%

yea+. T0e o2e++!5!n- e7!stence of ene+-y c+!ses? 0!-0e+ !nte+est +ate an5 sec/+!ty

!ss/es 0a2e

o2e+ t0e coect!on of co++espon5!n- pe+!o5 ast yea+. Moe2e+? t0e 5ec!ne !n C$T

coect!on

A s!-n!cant !nc+ease 0as

p+o4/-ate5 t0+o/-0 t0ese O+5!nances. Foo!n- a4en54ents 0a2e e7pen5!t/+e? t0e o2e+a sca 5ec!t !s e7pecte5 to +e4a!n at J !n 6*'*;''

a-a!nst .3J +eco+5e5 ast yea+. T0!s !nc+ease5 sca 5ec!t o/5 e7e+t

a55!t!ona p+ess/+e on


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A s!-n!cant pos!t!2e 4ase5

( was assigned a revenue target of (s.1,90 &illion for 0!11%10, which was higher &y (s.=!0 &illion or 05 percent over the actual collection of (s.1,! &illion of 0!1!%11. Despite slow

growth in the large manufacturing sector and less tax reali4ation from maor sectors li+e cement,

&everages and services, ( managed to collect (s.1,881 &illion 95. percent of the assigned

target" showing a healthy growth of 01.= percent over the actual collection of 0!1!%11. *his

growth has increased the ( tax to 'DP ratio from 8.5 percent in 0!1!%11 to 9.1 percent in

0!11%10ig%3". Eowever, (s.1,881 &illion does not include (s.0 &illion collected &y )indh


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(evenue oard )(" on account of 'eneral )ales *ax on services. *o ma+e 0!11%10

compara&le with 0!1!%11, )indh collection need to &e added which ma+es total collection to

(s.1,9!5 &illion showing a growth of 03 percent.

(efunds &y the ( during 0!11%10 were (s.1=5 &illion, 3/.3 percent higher than the 0!1!%11.

*he 'overnment is ta+ing measures to enhance revenues &y &roadening the tax%&ase, simplifying

the tax structure, moving towards two taxes regime, effective monitoring and ris+ &ased audit.

7 glimpse at the tax%wise collection and targets *a&le%0" shows that customs duty has achieved

the allocated target during 0!11%10. Eowever, direct taxes and sales tax collection have

marginally missed the target. ederal Cxcise missed the target as well as witnessed a negative

growth of 11 percent owing toF

7&olition of )pecial Cxcise Duty )CD" &oth at import and domestic stages

G (eduction of CD rates of &everages from 10 percent to 5 percent

G (eduction of CD rates on cement from (s./!! per #etric ton to (s.!! per #etric ton.


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T0e s0a+e of 5!+ect ta7es !n tota fe5e+a ta7 +ece!pts 0as !nc+ease5 f+o4 a+o/n5

36 pe+cent !n 6***;*' to 3( pe+cent !n 6*'';'6 o!n- to !4p+o2e5 ta7 e>o+ts

an5 e>ect!2e !4pe4entat!on of ta7 po!cy an5 a54!n!st+at!2e +efo+4s.

T0e -+ot0 patte+n of 2a+!o/s co4ponents of MT 0as e+ent !.e.

5!2!5en5 %.9 pe+cent? 6*'';'6 o2e+ t0e coect!on of Rs.33

yea+ !n5!cat!n- a -+ot0 of 6) pe+cent. 'his is %artiall" due to the ta& base

broadeig e3orts o) the go$ermet b" remo$ig major sales ta&

e&em%tios ad zero ratig.

Pet+oe/4 0as


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co44o5!t!es of saes ta7 !4po+t 0a2e cont+!Rs.'39

e7pan5 t0e saes ta7 net. In o+5e+ to +e5/ce t0e s4/--!n- of -oo5s? t0e saes ta7

+ate on ce+ta!n co44o5!t!es as +e5/ce5 f+o4 ' pe+cent to , pe+cent.

F/+t0e+4o+e? to a2o!5 4/t!p!c!ty a saes ta7 +ates e+e set at a /n!fo+4 +ate of '

pe+cent. Fe5e+a e7c!se 5/ty on const+/ct!on as +e5/ce5 f+o4 Rs.,** pe+ 4et+!c

tonne to Rs.%** pe+ 4et+!c tonne !t0 t0e a!4 to s/ppo+t t0e const+/ct!on act!2!t!es

0oe2e+? !t a--+a2ate5 t0e fa5!n-

cate-o+!es !t0 t0e 4ao+ t+a5!n- pa+tne+s s/c0 as Un!te5 States an5 E/+opean

Un!on to !4p+o2e t0e ec!ency of t0e c/sto4 5/ty coect!ons. It aso foc/se5 on f/

!4pos!t!on of t0e pet+oe/4 e2y to en0ance t0e tota +e2en/e.

D/+!n- 6*'6;'3? F"R 4ana-e5 to coect Rs.'?(3

coect!on a-a!nst t0e ta+-et of Rs.6?3)'

co/nt+y1s ta7 coect!on. It !s !4pe+at!2e to cons!5e+ t0e ta7 +e2en/e coect!on

a-a!nst t0e ta+-ets set 0!c0 0!-0!-0ts t0e -+o!n- nee5 fo+ e>ect!2e ta7 coect!on

4ac0!ne+y.


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Most of 2a+!a

,. T0e -o2e+n4ent +e5/ce5 t0e saes ta7 +ate f+o4 Rs.9 to Rs.% pe+ /n!t of

eect+!c!ty fo+ stee 4ete+s an5 +e;+o!n- /n!ts an5 on ce+ta!n !te4s to ' pe+cent

f+o4 as 0!-0 as 66 pe+cent. It aso +e5/ce5 FED +ate on s/-a+ f+o4 ) pe+cent to *.,

pe+cent on H/ant!ty. T0!s 0a5 st+on- !4p!cat!ons on t0e -o2e+n4ent1s ta7 coect!on

potent!a.

. T0e ac of enfo+ce4ent of t0e e5 sta> co/pe5 !t0 a ac of a/5!t an5 ot0e+

4ana-e4ent !ss/es aso e5 to a +e5/ce5 ta7 coect!on.

Pa!stan Ta7 Re2en/e 6*'3;'%F"R coecte5 Rs.6?6

T0!s +ep+esente5 an ac0!e2e4ent of a+o/n5 (6 pe+cent of t0e ta+-et co4pa+e5 !t0ony )' pe+cent ast yea+. F"R ta7 coect!on -+e


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Pa!stan Ta7 Re2en/e 6*'%;',!t0!n ta7 +e2en/es? F"R ta7es e+e Rs 6?,)).6

ten yea+s F!-/+e ,.3. T0e -o2e+n4ent 0as en2!sa-e5 t0!s +at!o to !nc+ease to ''.3

pe+cent !n FY')


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0!-0 -+ot0 +ate of 3.' pe+cent !n FY', 4o+e t0an 5o/


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t0e!+ act!2!t!es. Ta7 e2as!on !s a s!-n!cant 5ete+4!nant of /n5e+-+o/n5

econo4y a+-ey 5/e to t0e oop0oes !n ta7 po!cy. Fa+4!n- co44/n!ty

e7e4pte5 f+o4 ta7at!on !s pa+t of t0e /n5e+-+o/n5 econo4y. E2en

!n5/st+!a!sts an5 t+a5e+s a+e non to 0a2e s0on t0e!+ !nco4e as t0e!+

fa+4!n- !nco4e an5 0a2e


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In 6*'* t0e foo!n- c0an-e !n +efo+4s

occ/++e5 !.e. E7pen5!t/+e +efo+4s

s0o/5

eH/!ty !s ess 5/+a

t0e 6*8yea+ pe+!o5 co/5

6**) poo+ an5 6**(86*'* conso!5at!on.

T0e a+-e !nc+ease !n 5e2eop4ent spen5!n- as 5/e to: ! 3) pe+cent !nc+ease !n

5e2eop4ent spen5!n- of t0e p+o2!nces +eBect!n-

s0o+ta-e of nances.

D/+!n- 6*'';'6? -o2e+n4ent too 2a+!o/s 4eas/+es to


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+eso/+ce en2eope

t0e tota e7pen5!t/+es !nc+ease5

4a!ny on acco/nt of se+2!c!n- of

5o4est!c 5eIn 6*'%? 0oe2e+ afte+ s0o!n- s/--!s0 -+ot0 ast yea+? 5e2eop4ent

e7pen5!t/+es +eco2e+e5 st+on-y? post!n- a %.6 pe+cent -+ot0 !n FY'% a-a!nst? .6

pe+cent a yea+ ea+!e+. T0e (.6 pe+cent -+ot0 !n tota e7pen5!t/+es !n FY'% as


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cons!5e+a

pe+cent co4pa+e5 to a 4ea-e+ .6 pe+cent +!se !n FY'3. T0!s -+ot0 !n 5e2eop4ent

spen5!n- as e7pecte5 as t0e Eect!on Co44!ss!on 0a5 p/t a f+ee=e on

5e2eop4ent e7penses s/s fo+ co44e+c!a an5 !n5/st+!a /se+s e+e

+e2!se5 /pa+5s t0+o/-0 t0e !4pos!t!on of s/+c0a+-es. Defense spen5!n- asosoe5 5on !n FY', !t0 a -+ot0 of '6.* pe+cent? co4pa+e5 !t0 ',.3 pe+cent

-+ot0 !tnesse5 ast yea+. M!sto+!cay? 5efense e7pen5!t/+es a+e t0e secon5

a+-est !te4 !n t0e fe5e+a c/++ent o/tays? 0!c0 +e4a!ne5

-+ot0 !n pens!on aso 5ec!ne5 s!-n!canty f+o4 %.% pe+cent !n FY'% to 6.) pe+cent

!n FY',. De2eop4ent e7pen5!t/+es net en5!n- to PSEs'' fe


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-o2e+n4ents? e+e '%.' pe+cent 0!-0e+ t0an t0e p+e2!o/s yea+? t0ey +e4a!ne5 s0o+t

of t0e!+ +espect!2e ta+-ets

Fiscal Policies, Revenues and Expenditure

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Transcript of Fiscal Policies, Revenues and Expenditure