FIRST STAGE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROCESS – CAUCUSES AND PRIMARIES

• Types of primaries:• Closed • Semi-closed• Open• Blanket (invalidated by Supreme Court)• Nonpartisan blanket primaries (state and local level)• “INVISIBLE PRIMARY”

PROS and CONS of PRIMARY CENTERED PROCESS

Gives power to the people•But so few people votes in primaries and are not

representative of the general population or even their own parties•Other criticisms of the nomination process: starts

early, lasts too long•Some argue for ONE SINGLE NATIONAL PRIMARY

Funding of elections

• Federal Election Campaign Act (1974):• 1. Placed limits on contributions to pres & Cong’l campaigns – to

candidates, PACs, parties • 2. Required disclosure of contributions*Individual limit of $1000 – up to $2600 – per election*Interest group contributions to PACs limited to $5000• 3. Limited “independent expenditures” – spending not coordinated

with, or given directly to, a candidate (overturned by Supreme Court)• 4. Loophole on contribution limits – “Soft Money” (later overturned by

Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act 2002)

• Created Federal Election Commission – 6 member bipartisan commission to administer and enforce CF laws• PRIMARIES – matching funds (for individual contributions – to

encourage small donations) - voluntary• GENERAL ELECTION - Full public financing in general election if agree

not to raise private contributions and agree to a spending limit (voluntary – many presidential candidates say NO THANKS)

Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act 2002• Bans soft money• Said issue ads (done through independent expenditures) can’t be broadcast

right before an election (this part would be overturned by Supreme Court ruling Citizens United)

Supreme Court rulings on Campaign Finance• 1. Buckley v. Valeo 1976 –*Ruled against mandatory spending limits*Upheld voluntary limits for Pres. Campaigns*Upheld contribution limits* Ruled against limits on independent expenditures• WHY ARE SPENDING LIMITS UNCONSTITUTIONAL BUT CONTRIBUTION

LIMITS NOT???

Citizens United Ruling 2010

• First Amendment prohibits gov’t from restricting independent expenditures by corporations (including non profit ones) and unions AT ANY TIME, including just prior to an election.• Can require disclosure but can’t limit free speech. First amendment

issue…

Main “loopholes” today to get around contribution limits in campaigns* Independent expenditure groups (Supreme Court has generally

supported these because aren’t made directly to a candidate so not “corrupting” in same way as a direct contribution)

- 527 groups: independent groups not subject to contribution restrictions, so long as don’t explicitly endorse – Swift Boat Vets,

Moveon.org –donations reported to FEC but amount = unlimited- 501s: independent groups that can also get unlimited donations, don’t even have to report donations to FEC so long as spend < 50 percent of their funds on political activities- Super PACS: can accept unlimited donations, can endorse ,so long as “just express their views” and don’t give their money to a candidate – in 2012 super PACs arose to support all pres. candidates

Electoral College

•Each state’s votes in the electoral college equal the number of its Reps in the U.S. House plus Senators in the U.S. Senate•Versus National Vote

•How people vote in presidential elections – most based on party ID• Prospective voting – look ahead based on each

candidate’s promises•Retrospective voting – vote based on past performance

of incumbent administration• Policy voting versus focusing on personal characteristics

(honesty, competence, “regular guy”)•Gender gap: women vote more D than men

2012 election – why did Obama win (Hayward)?

•Microtargeting – zero in on likely voters for your side, and hit them with particular messages designed to get them out to vote•Expansion of coalition to bring in low turnout voters, especially young and Hispanic voters, especially in battleground states

**The Presidency – once elected – constitutional powers**•Appointment, •make treaties, •veto, •commander-in-chief of army and navy, •pardon, •state of the union, •take care clause

Main constitutional check on the president – impeachment •Other powers of the president – not in Constitution –• Executive orders• Support Staff –• Executive Office of the President which includes the

Office of Management and Budget, chief of staff, press secretary

When do presidents succeed?

• Electoral context – margin of victory/mandate•What Congress looks like – is there divided government, but

further, what is the size of President’s party in both House and Senate • Honeymoon period – six months after election• Need to bargain and persuade (Neustadt)• Importance of going public (Kernell)• Presidential style/personality/character• Success on domestic versus foreign policy