First Quarter 2015 BMO EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS · Portfolio Strategy Report First uarter 2015 3...

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BMO ETF Portfolio Strategy Report ZLU.U/S&P 500 Composite Ratio Mar -2013 Apr-2013 May-2013 Jun -2013 Jul -2013 Aug-2013 Sep-2013 Oct-2013 Nov-2013 Dec-2013 Jan-2014 Feb-2014 Mar -2014 Apr-2014 May-2014 Jun -2014 Jul -2014 Aug-2014 Sep-2014 Oct-2014 Nov-2014 Dec-2014 BMO US Low Volatilty ETF -U.S. Dollar (ZLU.U) / S&P 500 Composite 0.016 0.017 0.018 0.019 0.020 0.021 Low Volatility Stocks in the U.S. gaining momentum vs. S&P 500 Composite - 0.4 - 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 U.S. Equities Canadian Equities Global Bonds Gold Commodities U.S. High Yield Bonds Emerging Market International Equities Correlation to Global Equities 2014 Since 2008 Recession Last 10 Years In this report: Recent Developments ............... 1 Things to Keep an Eye on .......... 2 Changes to the Portfolio Strategy..................... 3 Stats and Portfolio Holdings ................................... 4 Portfolio Characteristics........... 5 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly............................. 6 All prices or returns as of market close on January 9, 2015, unless otherwise indicated. Alfred Lee, CFA, CMT, DMS Vice President, BMO ETFs Portfolio Manager & Investment Strategist BMO Asset Management Inc. [email protected] In this report, we highlight our strategic and tactical portfolio positioning strategies for the first quarter using various BMO Exchange Traded Funds. Our key strategy changes are outlined throughout the report and in our quarterly outlook on page six. Whether the U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) will finally raise its overnight lending rate in 2015 will be one of the major focal points later in the year. In the wake of an encouraging U.S. jobs report and its unemployment recently falling to 5.7%, there is a growing possibility that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy at some point. Barring a major global economic slowdown, we anticipate a rate hike in the second half of the year. However, with no signs of inflation, we expect the Fed rate to remain low with the rate an eighth or quarter point higher at year’s end. Although we expect the U.S. central bank to become more hawkish, economic data out of Europe and Asia has shown signs of waning momentum. For example, the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for both the Euro-zone and Asia have been trending lower. In addition, slowing inflation has become a concern in both areas. This may prompt the central banks to intervene, likely benefiting the defensive oriented assets and dividend paying stocks of the area. Economic growth will likely increasingly diverge, with the U.S. shouldering global growth, but the rate of overall global economic expansion may slow. The varying monetary policies of different regions, however, should create asset allocation opportunities. In addition to diverging interest rates, falling crude prices may create a further divide between various economies. If the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continues to refrain from cutting production, depressed oil prices could be an ongoing headwind for oil exporting countries, especially for higher cost producers such as Canada. We expect this imbalance to be corrected at some point in 2015, particularly with some OPEC members already calling to cut production. Uncertain energy prices and diverging yields between various sovereign bonds should be catalysts that lead to growing opportunities for asset and sector allocation strategies. Due to these two factors, we expect correlations between different asset classes to continue to decline, as we saw in 2014 (Chart A). Consequently, alpha generation through top down strategies should become more rewarding as the year progresses. With slower economic growth in certain areas, lower energy prices and slower velocity of money, deflationary pressures may arise in some economies. In addition to asset and sector allocation, a well-constructed portfolio should consider exposure to specific market factors (such as low volatility or dividends) and currency exposure (hedged or unhedged) depending of the respective region. Higher beta stocks, which have fared well in the U.S. over the last 30-months, seem to be losing momentum. Similar to other regions, lower beta stocks seem to be gaining relative strength over the broad S&P 500 Composite Index (Chart B). Should the U.S. Federal Reserve take a more hawkish tone, we expect a further tailwind behind lower beta stocks in the U.S. A Diverging Landscape Chart A: Lower Intra-Market Correlations Chart B: U.S. Low Beta Stocks beginning to Outperform S&P 500 Composite Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg BMO EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS First Quarter 2015

Transcript of First Quarter 2015 BMO EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS · Portfolio Strategy Report First uarter 2015 3...

Page 1: First Quarter 2015 BMO EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS · Portfolio Strategy Report First uarter 2015 3 Changes to Portfolio Strategy Asset Allocation: • As mentioned in our last report,

BMO ETF Portfolio Strategy Report

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In this report:

Recent Developments ...............1

Things to Keep an Eye on ..........2

Changes to the Portfolio Strategy .....................3

Stats and Portfolio Holdings ...................................4

Portfolio Characteristics ...........5

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly .............................6

All prices or returns as of market close on January 9, 2015, unless otherwise indicated.

Alfred Lee, CFA, CMT, DMS Vice President, BMO ETFsPortfolio Manager & Investment StrategistBMO Asset Management [email protected]

In this report, we highlight our strategic and tactical portfolio positioning strategies for the first quarter using various BMO Exchange Traded Funds. Our key strategy changes are outlined throughout the report and in our quarterly outlook on page six.

• Whether the U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) will finally raise its overnight lending rate in 2015 will be one of the major focal points later in the year.InthewakeofanencouragingU.S.jobsreportanditsunemploymentrecentlyfallingto5.7%,thereisagrowingpossibilitythattheFedwilltightenitsmonetarypolicyatsomepoint.Barringamajorglobaleconomicslowdown,weanticipatearatehikeinthesecondhalfoftheyear.However,withnosignsofinflation,weexpecttheFedratetoremainlowwiththerateaneighthorquarterpointhigheratyear’send.

• Although we expect the U.S. central bank to become more hawkish, economic data out of Europe and Asia has shown signs of waning momentum. Forexample,thePurchasing Manager’s Index (PMI)forboththeEuro-zoneandAsiahavebeentrendinglower.Inaddition,slowinginflationhasbecomeaconcerninbothareas.Thismaypromptthecentralbankstointervene,likelybenefitingthedefensiveorientedassetsanddividendpayingstocksofthearea.Economicgrowthwilllikelyincreasinglydiverge,withtheU.S.shoulderingglobalgrowth,buttherateofoverallglobaleconomicexpansionmayslow.Thevaryingmonetarypoliciesofdifferentregions,however,shouldcreateassetallocationopportunities.

• In addition to diverging interest rates, falling crude prices may create a further divide between various economies.IftheOrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)continuestorefrainfromcuttingproduction,depressedoilpricescouldbeanongoingheadwindforoilexportingcountries,especiallyforhighercostproducerssuchasCanada.Weexpectthisimbalancetobecorrectedatsomepointin2015,particularlywithsomeOPECmembersalreadycallingtocutproduction.

• Uncertain energy prices and diverging yields between various sovereign bonds should be catalysts that lead to growing opportunities for asset and sector allocation strategies.Duetothesetwofactors,weexpectcorrelationsbetweendifferentassetclassestocontinuetodecline,aswesawin2014(ChartA).Consequently,alphagenerationthroughtopdownstrategiesshouldbecomemorerewardingastheyearprogresses.

• With slower economic growth in certain areas, lower energy prices and slower velocity of money, deflationary pressures may arise in some economies.Inadditiontoassetandsectorallocation,awell-constructedportfolioshouldconsiderexposuretospecificmarketfactors(suchaslowvolatilityordividends)andcurrencyexposure(hedgedorunhedged)dependingoftherespectiveregion.Higherbetastocks,whichhavefaredwellintheU.S.overthelast30-months,seemtobelosingmomentum.Similartootherregions,lowerbetastocksseemtobegainingrelativestrengthoverthebroadS&P 500 Composite Index (ChartB).ShouldtheU.S.FederalReservetakeamorehawkishtone,weexpectafurthertailwindbehindlowerbetastocksintheU.S.

A Diverging Landscape

Chart A: Lower Intra-Market Correlations Chart B: U.S. Low Beta Stocks beginning to Outperform S&P 500 Composite

Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg

BMO EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDSF i r s t Quar ter 2015

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Portfolio Strategy Report – First Quarter 2015 2

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Things to Keep an Eye on...

Oneadvantageoflowerenergypricesisthatitactsasafiscalstimulus,allowingconsumerstohavemoredisposableincome.Europeanequities,towhichwehaveincreasedourallocationinthelastyearshouldbenefit.Whenlookingatrecenttrendsofyear-over-year(y/y)Euro-zonespendinggrowthinrelationtoenergyprices,anegativecorrelationisexhibited.Thissuggeststhatasenergypricesdecline,Europeanconsumerstendtohavemoredisposableincometospendonnecessitiesandgoods.

Recommendation:Severalquartersago,weaddedtheBMO MSCI Europe High Quality Hedged to CAD Index ETF (ZEQ)toourportfoliostrategy.Itscombined47.5%inboththeconsumerdiscretionaryandconsumerstaplesectorsshouldfarewellshouldoilpricesremaindepressed.Atthesametime,itcouldmakealong-termholdingforaportfolioregardlessoftheoutcomeincrudeprices,astheETFscreensforhigherqualitycompaniesusingmetricssuchashighreturnonequity(ROE)andstableyear-over-yearearnings.AsthemonetarypolicyoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)willlikelyremainaccommodative,thecurrencyhedgewillmitigateanypotentialweaknessoftheunderlyingcurrencyoftheEuropeanstocks.

Sincemid-Juneof2014,oil(BrentCrude)priceshavefallen56.4%toUS$50.11/barrel.Whilethishasbeenadetractorfromtheequitymarketsofcommodityexportingcountries,thepositiveisthatthishasbeensupplysidedriven,ratherthanbeingaresultoffallingdemand.Momentumindicatorshavesuggestedcrudepriceshavebeenoversoldforweeks.ShouldOPECdecidetocurbsupply,oilpricescanquicklyrallytomore“normalized”levels.Thegreaterquestion,however,ishowlongOPECiswillingandabletosustainloweroilprices.

Recommendation:Sustainedloweroilpriceswouldcontinuetobenefitourportfoliostrategy,aswehavebeenunderweighttheenergysector.Shouldoilpricesrebound,ourstrategywouldlikelysurrendersomeoutperformance.Ratherthanutilizingcoreexposurestoobtainenergyexposure,werecommendinvestorsinsteadconsidertacticalpositionsofenergyETFs,suchastheBMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Oil & Gas Index ETF (ZEO).Bydoingso,thepositioncouldbeefficientlyremovedfromtheportfoliomix,whetherornotabounce-backinoilpricestranspires.

Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg

Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg

Lastquarter,wedecreasedourexposuretoU.S.highyieldbondsbyreducingourpositionintheBMO High Yield U.S. Corporate Bond Hedged to CAD Index ETF (ZHY)by3.0%.Thisdecisionwaspartiallymadebasedontheexpectationofwiderhighyieldcreditspreads,asweanticipatedaslowdowninthefourthquarter,whichdidmaterialize.The3.0%allocation,weusedtoincreaseourpositioninthemid-termU.S.investmentgradebonds,usingtheBMO Mid-Term US IG Corporate Bond Index ETF (ZIC).Overthefourthquarter,ZICoutperformedZHYby6.3%onatotalreturnbasis.Partoftheoutperformancehowever,didcomefromtheU.S.dollarexposureofZIC.

Recommendation:Goingforward,wedoexpectahigherand/orsteeperU.S.treasurycurvetobeaslightheadwindforU.S.highyieldbonds.HigherratesintheU.S.couldleadinvestorstode-riskabondportfolioashighercouponscouldbederivedfromhigherqualitybonds.Wedocontinuetoseeinvestmentgradebondstobeasweetspot,shouldtheU.S.FederalReservetightenmonetarypolicy.However,therecentwideningoftheHighYieldspreadsasindicatedbytheHighYieldCDXspread,presentssomepotentialtotightenahead.ToreduceU.S.durationriskhowever,theBMO Floating Rate High Yield ETF (ZFH)canbeused.

Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg

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Portfolio Strategy Report – First Quarter 2015 3

Changes to Portfolio StrategyAsset Allocation:

• Asmentionedinourlastreport,weexpectedacorrectionintheequityandcreditmarketsinthefinalquarterof2014.Ourportfoliostrategyaddedsomesignificantoutperformancerelativetoourbenchmarkoverthequarterasaresultofsomeoftherecentchangeswemade.InadditiontoourongoingoverweighttotheU.S.andourunderweighttoenergy,ourdecisiontoreduceexposuretoU.S.highyieldbondslastquarter,hasbeenapositivefordownsideprotection.

• WeexpectamorehawkishenvironmentintheU.S.,whereasmonetaryconditionswilllikelyremainstatusquoormorerelaxedinotherareas.Agrowingdivideininterestrateswouldnotonlyhaveramificationsonthebondmarkets,butalsowouldaffectotherassetclassesgiventheinter-marketrelationships.

• Overall,weremaincontentwithourassetallocationmix,aswearestillmorebullishonequitiesandcredit.However,wearemakingadjustmentswithintheassetclassestobetterpositionourportfolioforbothshortandlonger-termopportunities.

Fixed Income:

• Interestratefutureshaveimpliedagreaterpossibilityofaratechange(bothhigherandlower)fromtheBankofCanada(BoC)bytheendof2015.WiththeBoCgovernor,preferringalowerCanadiandollar,weseearatehikethisyeartobeunlikely.Unlessweexperiencesustainedloweroilprices,whichwilleventuallyimpactCanada’sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP),wedon’texpectalowerovernightrateinCanadaeither.Astheyearprogresses,wewouldlooktopossiblytakedurationriskinCanadianbonds,whiletakinglessdurationriskwithourU.S.fixedincomeexposure.

• Forthemeantime,weareleavingourallocationtoinvestmentgradefixedincomeunchanged.WewouldkeepaneyeonthetrendofthespreadbetweenCanadianandU.S.10-yearbondyield.ShouldaFederalReserveratehikebecomemoreimminent,wewouldlooktoreduceU.S.durationexposure,whileincreasingourexposuretothemid-part(“thebelly”)oftheyieldcurveinCanada.

Equities:

• Asmentionedpreviously,weenvisionagreaterdivergenceinmonetarypolicygoingforward.Weexpectthistoleadtoagreaterdivergenceinregionalassetperformance.EconomicdataoutsideoftheU.S.hasshownsignsofweakness,whichwilllikelypreventcentralbanksinEuropeandAsiafromtighteningmonetarypolicy.Thisshouldcontinuetoplacebuyingpressureonyieldintheseareas.Asaresult,weareinitiatinga6.0%positionintheBMO International Dividend ETF (ZDI).

• ThelackofsectordiversificationhasbeenbeneficialfortheCanadianequitymarketoverthelastdecade,withitsthreemainsectorsperformingwell.However,withgreateruncertaintyinenergyandopportunitiesarisinginotherglobalequitymarkets,wearelookingtoincreaseourglobaldiversification.AlthoughwearestillpositiveonCanadiandividends,wearereducingourpositionintheBMO Canadian Dividend ETF (ZDV)by4.0%topartiallyfundournewallocationinZDI.

• HigherbetaequitystrategieshaveperformedwellintheU.S.sincemid-2012,buthaverecentlybeguntolosemomentum.Ontheotherhand,lowerbetaU.S.equitystrategies,havebeengainingstrengthrelativetotheS&P 500 Composite Index.Inaddition,withequitymarketvolatility,asindicatedbytheCBOE/S&P Implied Volatility Index (VIX) rising,weareeliminatingour5.0%positionintheBMO S&P 500 Index ETF (ZSP),infavouroftheBMO U.S. Low Volatility ETF (ZLU).

• Webelieveoilpricescanfallfurtherfromcurrentlevels.However,themajorityofthedropinBrentpriceshaslikelyalreadyoccurred.Although,itisdifficulttodeterminehowlongoilpricescouldremaindepressed,itshouldalsobenotedthatthecurrentpriceofcrudeistradingatanotablediscounttoits10-yearaverage.Aspreviouslymentioned,atacticalpositionintheBMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Oil & Gas Index ETF (ZEO)canbeusedtogainexposuretolargecapenergyrelatedcompanies.ThecompaniesintheETFareCanadian,whichtendtobehighercostproducersandhaveahigherbetatooil,potentiallyoutperformingifandwhenoilpricesbouncebacktohigherlevels.Moreover,therecentdeclineintheCanadianenergysectorhasmadeyieldsmoreattractivewiththecurrentportfolioyieldofZEOat4.0%.

Non-Traditional:

• Althoughwearecurrentlyleavingthedurationriskoftheinvestmentgradeportionofourportfoliostrategyunchanged,wearereducingthedurationriskofourhighyieldexposure.Withthehighyieldcreditspreadtrendingwiderinthelasthalfyear,webelievestrongerU.S.economicdatawilleventuallyleadthistrendtoreverse.TomaintainourexposuretoU.S.highyieldbonds,whileeliminatingourdurationexposure,weareswitchingour3.5%positionintheBMO High Yield U.S. Corporate Bond Hedged to C$ Index ETF (ZHY)fortheBMO Floating Rate High Yield ETF (ZFH).

Sell/Trim Ticker (%) Buy/Add Ticker (%)

BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Industrials Index ETF ZIN 5.0% BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Oil & Gas Index ETF ZEO 3.0%

BMO Canadian Dividend ETF ZDV 4.0% BMO International Dividend ETF ZDI 6.0%

BMO S&P 500 Index ETF ZSP 5.0% BMO U.S. Low Volatility U.S. Equity ETF ZLU 5.0%

BMO High Yield U.S. Corporate Bond Hedged to C$ Index ETF ZHY 3.5% BMO Floating Rate High Yield ETF ZFH 3.5%

Total 17.5% Total 17.5%

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Portfolio Strategy Report – First Quarter 2015 4

Ticker ETF Name Position Price MER Weight (%)

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Volatility Contribution

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Yield/Vol

Fixed Income

ZDB BMO DISCOUNT BOND INDEX ETF Debt Core $15.78 0.20% 14.0% 3.7 4.9% 2.5% 0.69

ZIC BMO MID-TERM U.S. IG CORPORATE BOND INDEX ETF Debt Tactical $17.12 0.25% 10.0% 8.5 8.2% 3.4% 0.39

ZCS BMO SHORT CORPORATE BOND INDEX ETF Debt Tactical $14.78 0.12% 9.0% 2.4 2.1% 2.0% 0.83

ZST BMO ULTRA SHORT-TERM BOND INDEX ETF Debt Tactical $56.26 0.15% 3.0% 2.0 0.6% 2.0% 1.01

Total Fixed Income 36.0% 15.8%

Equities

ZLB BMO LOW VOLATILITY CANADIAN EQUITY ETF Equity Core $25.35 0.35% 8.5% 10.7 8.8% 2.9% 0.27

ZDV BMO CANADIAN DIVIDEND ETF Equity Core $17.01 0.35% 5.0% 15.8 7.6% 4.6% 0.29

ZLU BMO LOW VOLATILITY U.S. EQUITY ETF Equity Core $24.04 0.10% 5.0% 12.7 6.1% 2.0% 0.16

ZDY BMO U.S. DIVIDEND ETF Equity Core $21.78 0.30% 11.0% 13.1 13.8% 3.8% 0.29

ZDI BMO INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND ETF Equity Core $19.35 0.40% 6.0% 15.4 8.9% 4.2% 0.27

ZEQ BMO MSCI EUROPE HIGH QUALITY HEDGED TO CAD ETF Equity Tactical $16.31 0.40% 7.0% 16.1 10.8% 3.3% 0.21

ZWB BMO COVERED CALL BANKS ETF Equity Tactical $16.38 0.65% 3.0% 13.3 3.8% 6.0% 0.45

ZEO BMO S&P/TSX EQUAL WEIGHT OIL & GAS INDEX ETF Equity Tactical $12.26 0.55% 3.0% 33.6 9.7% 2.3% 0.07

ZWA BMO COVERED CALL DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE HEDGED TO C$ ETF Equity Tactical $19.87 0.65% 3.0% 12.2 3.5% 6.2% 0.51

ZUB BMO Equal Weight U.S. Banks Hedged to C$ ETF Equity Tactical $20.02 0.35% 4.0% 19.1 7.4% 1.6% 0.08Total Equity 55.5% 80.5%

Non-Traditional/Hybrids

ZFH BMO FLOATING RATE HIGH YIELD ETF Equity Tactical $14.91 0.40% 3.5% 7.1 2.4% 5.0% 0.71

ZPR BMO S&P/TSX LADDERED PREFERRED INDEX ETF Debt Tactical $13.93 0.45% 5.0% 2.6 1.2% 4.8% 1.86

Total Alternatives 8.5% 3.6%

Total Cash 0.0% 1.2 0.0% 1.0%

Portfolio 0.31% 100.0% 10.4 100.0% 3.3% 0.90

Ticker Top Holdings Weight

ZDB BMO DISCOUNT BOND INDEX ETF 14.0%

ZDY BMO U.S. DIVIDEND ETF 11.0%

ZIC BMO MID-TERM U.S. IG CORPORATE BOND INDEX ETF 10.0%

ZCS BMO SHORT CORPORATE BOND INDEX ETF 9.0%

ZLB BMO LOW VOLATILITY CANADIAN EQUITY ETF 8.5%

ZEQ BMO MSCI EUROPE HIGH QUALITY HEDGED TO CAD ETF 7.0%

ZDI BMO INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND ETF 6.0%

ZDV BMO CANADIAN DIVIDEND ETF 5.0%

ZLU BMO LOW VOLATILITY U.S. EQUITY ETF 5.0%

ZPR BMO S&P/TSX LADDERED PREFERRED INDEX ETF 5.0%

ZUB BMO EQUAL WEIGHT U.S. BANKS HEDGED TO C$ ETF 4.0%

ZFH BMO FLOATING RATE HIGH YIELD ETF 3.5%

ZST BMO ULTRA SHORT-TERM BOND INDEX ETF 3.0%

ZWB BMO COVERED CALL BANKS ETF 3.0%

ZEO BMO S&P/TSX EQUAL WEIGHT OIL & GAS INDEX ETF 3.0%

ZWA BMO COVERED CALL DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVER-AGE HEDGED TO C$ ETF

3.0%

Core 49.5%

Tactical 50.5%

Cash

Alternatives

Equities

Fixed Income

Stats and Portfolio Holdings

Investment Objective and Strategy: The strategy involves tactically allocating to multiple asset-classes and geographical areas to achieve long-term capital appreciation and total return by investing primarily in exchange traded funds (ETFs).

Non-Traditional (11.5%)

Equities (55.5%)

Fixed Income (33.0%)

*Yieldcalculationsforbondsisbasedonyieldtomaturity,whichincludescouponpaymentsandanycapitalgainorlossthattheinvestorwillrealizebyholdingthebondstomaturityandforequitiesitisbasedonthemostrecentannualizedincomereceiveddividedbythemarketvalueoftheinvestments.

**Cashisbasedoffthe3-quarterCanadianDealerOfferedRate(CDOR).

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Portfolio Strategy Report – First Quarter 2015 5

Portfolio Characteristics

Financials 23.2%

Health Care 7.5%

Industrials 7.2%

Information Technology 4.9%

Materials 4.7%

Telecommunication Services 4.8%

Utilities 10.3%

Consumer Discretionary 10.3%

Consumer Staples 13.0%

Energy 14.1%

Canada 50.5%

United States 36.5%

Europe 11.9%

Asia 1.1%

Federal 13.6%

Provincial 11.7%

Investment Grade Corporate 71.3%

Non-Investment Grade Corporate 3.5%

Weighted Average Term 6.05

Weighted Average Duration 4.74

Weighted Average Coupon 3.4%

Weighted Average Current Yield 3.3%

Weighted Average Yield to Maturity 2.6%

Equity Sector Breakdown

Regional Breakdown (Overall Portfolio)

Fixed Income Breakdown

Utilities

Telecommunication Services

Materials

Information Technology

Industrials

Health Care

Financials

Energy

Consumer Staples

Consumer Discretionary

Cash

Emerging Markets

United States

Canada

WeightedAverageCurrentYield:Themarketvalueweightedaveragecoupondividedbytheweightedaveragemarketpriceofbonds.

WeightedAverageYieldtoMaturity:Themarketvalueweightedaverageyieldtomaturityincludesthecouponpaymentsandanycapitalgainorlossthattheinvestorwillrealizebyholdingthebondstomaturity.

WeightedAverageDuration:Themarketvalueweightedaveragedurationofunderlyingbondsdividedbytheweightedaveragemarketpriceoftheunderlyingbonds.Durationisameasureofthesensitivityofthepriceofafixedincomeinvestmenttoachangeininterestrates.

*Regional Breakdown includes equities, fixed income and alternative sleeves.

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Portfolio Strategy Report – First Quarter 2015 6

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Conclusion: Weexpectadivergingeconomiclandscapetomaterializeasthevaryingpaceofrecoverybetweenmajorregionswillbecomeincreasinglyprevalent.Themonetarypolicyofkeycentralbankswillbecomeunevenasaresult,leadingtogreateropportunitiesinassetallocation.Theseconditionswillbebeneficialformulti-assetstrategiesandportfoliosutilizingtargetedstylesandfactorexposures.Ourongoingconcernremainstheexcessleverageinthefinancialmarkets.TheNYSEMarginDebtIndex,whichweoftenquoteinthisreport,hasnowtrendedbelowits12-monthaverage.Shoulditsignificantlybreakbelowthisaverage,adeleveragingprocesscouldoccur,wherecurrentmarginlevelsexceedpre-2008levels.Consequently,ourequityexposure,particularlyintheU.S.hasnowbecomemoredefensivelypositioned.

Global-Macro/Geo-Political Fundamental Technical

Good

• U.S.initialjoblessclaimcontinuestotrendlower.Itscurrentlevelsarelowsnotseensincepre-recession.

• TheU.S.unemploymentratealsocontinuestotickdownfromitshighof9.93%in2009toitscurrent 5.7%.

• TheUniversityofMichiganConsumerSentimentIndexhasgainedto93.6,apost-recessionhigh.

• LeadingEconomicIndicator(LEI)acombinationof10economicdatapoints,showstheEuroareagaining momentum.

• ThenewhighsoftheS&P500CompositeIndex havebeenmetwithhigherearningspershare(EPS).

• The12.9xcurrentprice-to-earnings(P/E)oftheS&P500EnergyIndexis28.7%discounttothebroad S&P500CompositeIndex.

• MoreaccommodativemonetarypolicyfromthecentralbanksofAsiaPacificcouldbesupportiveforthedividendpayingcompaniesoftheregion.

• LowerenergypricescouldbetherequiredcatalysttoEuropeanequitieswhichhaveagoodrepresentationtoconsumerrelatesectors.

• Wecontinuetoexpectcorrelationsbetweenandwithinassetclassestodriftlower.Thisisapositiveformulti-assetstrategies.

• Onarelativebasis,goldhassurgedversusoilprices.

Bad

• IndustrialProductioninareasoutsideoftheU.S.areshowingweakness.ChinaandsomemajorEuropeaneconomiesareloweryearoveryeargrowthandBrazilandRussiawerenegative.

• TheslumpincrudepriceswillputpressureontheGDPofoilexportingcountries,whichmaytrickleintootherareasoftheglobaleconomy.

• Eurozoney/yCPI(allitems)hasgonenegative.

• ChinaExporttrade(y/y)havestabilizedbutremainwellbelowpre-recessionlows.

• Valuationsondefensiveorientedsectorssuchasutilities and telecoms continue to trade richer.

• TheCBOE/S&PImpliedVolatilityIndex(VIX) has spikedabove20(itslong-termaverage)threetimes in the last quarter.

• ThemorespeculativeCSI300ShanghaiShenzhenIndex has surged relative to the Shanghai CompositeIndex.Thispotentiallyindicatesahighdegreeofspeculativeinvesting.

Ugly

• WecontinuetobeconcernedabouthighhouseholddebtlevelsinCanada.Loweroilpricescouldnegativelyimpactotherpartsoftheeconomy,puttingpressureonconsumers.

• IndustrialproductioninJapan(y/y)registereda-3.8% in its last reading.

• TheRussianequitymarkethasacurrentP/Eof4.4x.Althoughinexpensive,loweroilpricescouldplacefurtherheadwindsonitsmarket.

• TheMargin Debt Indexlooksdangerouslyclosetocrossingbelowits12-monthaverage.Asignificantbreachbelowwouldtriggeramajordeleveraging event.

• TheS&P/TSXCompositeIndex has registered lowerhighsandlowerlows.

• CommodityrelatedcurrenciessuchastheCanadiandollar,NorwegianKronaandtheAustralian dollar have flat-lined relative to the U.S.dollar.Loweroilpricescouldcauseinterestratestodiverge,puttingfurtherdownwardpressureoverthelong-term.

Page 7: First Quarter 2015 BMO EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS · Portfolio Strategy Report First uarter 2015 3 Changes to Portfolio Strategy Asset Allocation: • As mentioned in our last report,

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Portfolio Strategy Report – First Quarter 2015 7