First... Let’s look back to our Forecasts for 2004.
55
-
Upload
gavin-waters -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
1
Transcript of First... Let’s look back to our Forecasts for 2004.
First... Let’s look back to our Forecasts
for
2004
First... Let’s look back to our Forecasts
for
2004
Forecast 2004 (9/4/03)Forecast 2004 (9/4/03)
(% Change)
Local Spot + 7.0 to + 8.0Nat’l Spot +14.0to +15.0 Total Spot +10.0to +11.0Network + 7.0 to + 8.0Syndication + 5.0 to + 6.0Cable + 8.0 to + 9.0
First half +8.6% Political push just starting Reconfirm original forecast at +11.0%
Are We on Target for 2004?Are We on Target for 2004?
Political Olympics
Local BroadcastA 2-Year Business Cycle
Local BroadcastA 2-Year Business Cycle
Impact on Local Broadcast TV Ad
Spending
Impact on Local Broadcast TV Ad
Spending
1995
+3.5
1996
+8.6
1997
+3.3
1998
+6.5
1999
+1.5
2000
+11.3
2001
-16.8
2002
+11.9
2003
-2.4
2004*
+11.0
Over Last 12 Mos. Over Last 24 Mos.
Source: Universal McCann/TVB Station Time Sales Surveys
Local BroadcastA 2-year Business Cycle
Local BroadcastA 2-year Business Cycle
% Change Total Spot
* TVB Estimate.
142.7
114.9
127.6
141.2
131.2
100
120
140
160
'95-'96 ’97-’98 ’99-’00 ’01-’02 '03-'04
%
Index of the Growth of Spot TVIndex of the Growth of Spot TV
In 24 Month Cycles(’93-’94 = 100)
Now The Year AheadNow The Year Ahead
What Can We Expect?
Here’s What the Financial Broadcast
Analysts Are Saying About 2005
Here’s What the Financial Broadcast
Analysts Are Saying About 2005
16 Financial Firms Participated
16 Financial Firms Participated
Bear StearnsCIBC World MarketsDeutsche BankFulcrum Global PartnersGabelli & Co.Harris NesbittJPMorgan ChaseLegg Mason
Merrill LynchMorgan StanleyPrudential Equity GroupSanford C. Bernstein & Co.SG Cowen Securities Corp.Thomas Weisel PartnersVogel CapitalWachovia Securities
Local Spot + 1.8 + 2.0 Nat’l Spot - 2.9 - 3.0 Network + 2.1 + 3.0Syndication + 6.2 + 5.0Network Cable+ 10.6 + 10.3Spot Cable + 10.1 + 11.0
Summary of the 2005Financial Forecasts
Summary of the 2005Financial Forecasts
MeanMedian
(2005 % Change)
Wall Street Estimates 2005 – Local Spot
Wall Street Estimates 2005 – Local Spot
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Local Spot Ranges
Wall Street Estimates 2005 – Nat’l Spot
Wall Street Estimates 2005 – Nat’l Spot
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
National Spot Ranges
Local Spot + 1.8 + 4.6 Nat’l Spot - 2.9 + 8.3 Network + 2.1 + 4.5Syndication + 6.2 + 6.0Network Cable+ 10.6 + 9.8Spot Cable + 10.1 + 10.0
Summary of theFinancial Forecasts
Summary of theFinancial Forecasts
2005 2006(% Change)
Bear StearnsBear Stearns
Local Spot +3.0 Nat’l Spot - 7.5 to - 8.5 Network +5.0 to + 6.0 Syndication +5.0Network Cable +8.0 to +10.0Nat’l Spot Cable +12.0Local Cable +5.0
2005(% Change)
CIBC World MarketsCIBC World Markets
Local Spot + 3.0 + 5.0Nat’l Spot + 3.0 + 6.0Network + 4.0 + 4.0Syndication + 5.0 + 5.0Network Cable + 8.0 + 8.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 4.0 + 6.0Local Cable + 4.0 + 6.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank
Local Spot + 0.0 + 5.0Nat’l Spot - 3.0 + 9.0Network -1.0 +0.0Syndication + 10.0 + 8.0Network Cable+ 12.0 + 9.0Nat’l Spot Cable+13.0 + 10.0Local Cable + 15.0 + 13.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Fulcrum Global PartnersFulcrum Global Partners
Local Spot + 3.0 + 5.0Nat’l Spot - 10.0 + 7.0Network - 5.0 + 6.0Syndication + 2.0 + 5.0Network Cable+ 12.5 + 10.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 12.0 + 10.0Local Cable + 12.0 + 10.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Gabelli & CompanyGabelli & Company
Local Spot -0.5 +3.25Nat’l Spot +2.5 +4.25Network +1.25 +3.0Syndication +10.0 +7.0Network Cable +15.0 +10.0Nat’l Spot Cable+10.0 +6.0Local Cable +4.0 +4.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Harris NesbittHarris Nesbitt
Local Spot + 2.0 + 4.0Nat’l Spot - 13.0 + 13.0Network + 3.0 + 4.0Syndication + 6.0 + 4.0Network Cable+ 11.0 + 12.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 15.0 + 12.0Local Cable + 11.0 + 12.0
2005 2006(% Change)
JPMorgan ChaseJPMorgan Chase
Local Spot +3.0 +6.0 Nat’l Spot -6.0 +9.0 Network +4.5 +5.0 Syndication +3.5 +4.5 Network Cable +9.5 +10.0 Nat’l Spot Cable+11.7 +12.0 Local Cable N/A N/A
2005 2006(% Change)
Legg MasonLegg Mason
Local Spot + 4.0 +6.0 Nat’l Spot +0.0 +7.0Network +3.0 +7.0 Syndication +2.0 +5.0 Network Cable +8.0 +10.0 Nat’l Spot Cable +9.0 +11.0 Local Cable +6.0 +8.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Merrill LynchMerrill Lynch
Local Spot + 2.5 + 1.8Nat’l Spot - 5.2 + 9.1Network + 3.0 + 5.0Syndication + 12.0 + 12.0Network Cable + 15.0-18.0+ 15.0Nat’l Spot Cable N/A N/A Local Cable + 12.0 + 12.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley
Local Spot -0.6 +6.1 Nat’l Spot -0.6 +6.1 Network +2.0 +6.1 Syndication N/A N/A Network Cable +9.0 +7.2 Nat’l Spot Cable N/A N/ALocal Cable N/A N/A
2005 2006(% Change)
Prudential Equity GroupPrudential Equity Group
Local Spot + 5.0 + 5.0Nat’l Spot - 3.0 + 15.0Network + 6.0 + 4.0Syndication + 9.0 + 6.0Network Cable+ 12.0 + 10.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 10.0 + 9.0Local Cable + 10.0 + 9.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
Local Spot +2.0 +4.0 Nat’l Spot -1.0 +11.0 Network +5.2 +4.6 Syndication +6.0 +2.0 Network Cable +16.0 +13.0 Nat’l Spot Cable N/A N/A Local Cable +19.0 +17.0
2005 2006(% Change)
SG Cowen Securities Corp.SG Cowen Securities Corp.
Local Spot + 1.5 + 5.0Nat’l Spot - 3.0 + 15.0Network + 2.0 + 4.0Syndication + 4.0 + 5.0Network Cable + 6.5 + 7.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 10.0 + 10.0Local Cable + 15.0 + 12.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Thomas Weisel PartnersThomas Weisel Partners
Local Spot - 3.0 + 8.3Nat’l Spot + 2.4 + 3.4Network - 4.1 + 7.1Syndication + 3.0 + 5.0Network Cable+ 11.1 + 11.1Nat’l Spot Cable+ 10.0 + 10.0Local Cable + 10.0 + 10.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Vogel CapitalVogel Capital
Local Spot + 2.0 + 0.0Nat’l Spot + 2.0 + 3.0Network + 0.0 + 2.0Syndication + 3.0 + 3.0Network Cable + 6.0 + 4.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 5.0 + 3.0Local Cable + 7.0 + 3.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Wachovia SecuritiesWachovia Securities
Local Spot + 2.0 + 4.0Nat’l Spot - 3.0 + 6.0Network + 5.0 + 6.0Syndication + 12.0 + 12.0Network Cable + 8.0 + 10.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 10.0 + 12.0Local Cable + 11.0 + 14.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Now What the Other Experts are Predicting
for 2005 & 2006
Now What the Other Experts are Predicting
for 2005 & 2006
Universal McCannUniversal McCann
Local Spot +3.0 +5.0 Nat’l Spot +1.0 +7.0 Network +2.0 +7.0 Syndication +1.0 +3.0 Network Cable +6.0 +8.0 Nat’l Spot Cable +7.0 +10.0 Local Cable +7.0 +10.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Jack MyersJack Myers
Total Spot + 0.0 + 6.0Network + 2.0 + 2.8Syndication + 3.0 + 4.0Network Cable + 6.2 + 7.0Local/RegionalCable + 12.0 + 18.0
2005 2006(% Change)
Veronis Suhler StevensonVeronis Suhler Stevenson
Local Spot + 1.4 +5.9 Nat’l Spot +3.2 +6.9 Network +2.2 +7.2 Syndication +2.6 +5.8 Network Cable +9.5 +10.1 Nat’l Spot Cable N/A N/A Local Cable +10.6 +11.3
2005 2006(% Change)
Veronis Suhler StevensonVeronis Suhler Stevenson
Dimensioning The Spot Market
Spot TV as % of Total Broadcast TV
Spot TV as % of Total Broadcast TV
2004 26,062 17,076 2,538 45,67657.1%
2005 26,635 17,450 2,604 46,68957.0%
2006 28,325 18,708 2,755 49,78856.9%
2007 29,448 19,045 2,854 51,34757.4%
2008 31,610 20,721 3,088 55,41957.0%
Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson
Total Spot Network Total Spot % Broadcast Broadcast Syndicated Broadcast of Total
Spot TV as % of Total Local TV Spot TV as % of Total Local TV
2004 26,062 4,685 30,747 84.8%
2005 26,635 5,180 31,815 83.7%
2006 28,325 5,763 34,088 83.1%
2007 29,448 6,347 35,795 82.3%
2008 31,610 7,309 38,919 81.2%
Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson
Total Spot Local Total Spot Broadcast Broadcast Cable Local TV % of Local
TV Rep Surveyfor 2005-2006TV Rep Surveyfor 2005-2006
National Spot -2.7 +11.6
20052006
(% Change)
11 Participants
TV Rep SurveyTV Rep Survey
National Spot -2.7 -1.0
MeanMedian
(% Change)
11 Participants
2005 Rep Survey2005 Rep Survey
2005 Rep Survey2005 Rep Survey
Mean Median-2.7% -1.0%
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Key Categories to Watch - 2005Key Categories to Watch - 2005
Automotive Telecommunications Pharmaceutical Financial Services/Credit Cards Issue
Oil Prices Employment/Unemployment Interest Rates Consumer Confidence Home Construction & Sales The 2004 Election Broadcast-Cable Competition
Market Drivers 2005Market Drivers 2005
Satellite Grabs Subs Price Wars Cable Modems Challenged Phone Company Packaging Capital Spending/Depreciation
Cable TV Storm Clouds Gathering...
Cable TV Storm Clouds Gathering...
Network CPM Gap Local Cable Challenges: Inventory, Value Fragmentation Sarbanes-Oxley/Accountability A la carte... The Nightmare Scenario
Cable TV Storm Clouds Gathering...
Cable TV Storm Clouds Gathering...
The power of televisionGeo-TargetingAddressability by programBroad[cast] reachDominant ratingsSuperior cost-efficiencyAccountabilityElectronic processing
…Value for the Customer
Spot Broadcast DeliversSpot Broadcast Delivers
And Now TVB’s Forecast for 2005 & 2006
Local Spot + 2 to + 4Nat’l Spot - 4 to -2 Total Spot - 1 to + 1
Network + 2 to + 3Syndication + 5 to + 6Network Cable + 8 to + 9Local Cable + 7 to + 9
TVB Forecast 2005TVB Forecast 2005
(% Change)
(% Change)
TVB Forecast 2006TVB Forecast 2006
Local Spot + 4 to + 6Nat’l Spot +10 to +14 Total Spot + 7 to + 9
Network + 4 to + 5Syndication + 5 to + 6Network Cable + 9 to +10Local Cable + 6 to + 8
Base Business ComparisonBase Business Comparison
2003 + 0.9 - 2.42004 E. + 5.6 +11.02005 E. + 5.5 Flat
Base Total(Base + Political)
(% Change)
Let’s Revisit Two Slidesand Insert the
2005 - 2006 Forecasts
Let’s Revisit Two Slidesand Insert the
2005 - 2006 Forecasts
1997
+3.3
1998
+6.5
1999
+1.5
2000
+11.3
2001
-16.8
2002
+11.9
2003
-2.4
2004*
+11.0
2005* Flat
2006*
+8.0
Over Last 12 Mos. Over Last 24 Mos.
Total Spot TV Total Spot TV
% Change
* TVB Estimate. Source: Universal McCann/TVB Station Time Sales Surveys
* TVB Estimate.
142.7
156.7
131.2
141.2
127.6
114.9
100
120
140
160
'95-'96 ’97-’98 ’99-’00 ’01-’02 '03-'04 '05-'06
%
Index of the Growth of Spot TVIndex of the Growth of Spot TV
In 24 Month Cycles(‘93-’94 = 100)
Thank You for Joining Us Today.
Go to www.tvb.orgfor presentations.
Thank You for Joining Us Today.
Go to www.tvb.orgfor presentations.
