Fire From the Sky: Remote Sensing in Wildfire...
Transcript of Fire From the Sky: Remote Sensing in Wildfire...
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Fire From the Sky: Remote Sensing in Wildfire Management
Leda Kobziar, School of Forest Resources and Conservation University of Florida Graduate Student Researchers: David Godwin, Sparkle Malone, Johanna Freeman
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www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1003669107
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NOAA’s Hazard Mapping System combines RS data from satellite sources to detect fire/ smoke plumes: Including Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)
Issues: scale of detection, atmospheric interference, timing of satellite pass bys
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fire behavior
Weather: varies across space and time, inherently unpredictable at the scale of fire behavior
Fuels: varies with space & time, predictable
Topography: varies with space, predictable
Can be manipulated!
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To reduce horizontal or vertical continuity of fuelbeds
To reduce oxygen supply to fuels To reduce fuel height To decrease fuel loads
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BEFORE AFTER
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Thinning from below (small diamter, fire intolerant trees) and burning piles during the winter. Common in western US
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UF Statistics staff burning pine flatwoods at the Austin Cary Memorial Forest
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Western US: over 12 M acres in highest category of need Avg. cost ~$450/ acre
Southern Region: Largely focused on prescribed burning
▪ Approx. $25/acre Region-wide, over 8 million acres
burned/year ▪ ~$200 M
Florida: 2 million acres burned annually Suppression effect- 12 cents per dollar
invested Prevention via fuels treatments- ~$3.76/
dollar invested (Lankoande et al. 2006)
A Wiser Smokey
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Weather: varies across space and time, inherently unpredictable at the scale of fire behavior
Fuels: varies with space & time, predictable and can be managed
Topography: varies with space, predictable
Do fuels reduction work? Check the severity of subsequent fires
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High spatial resolution Low spectral resolution High temporal resolution Low spatial inference High cost (personnel, time)
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Med. Spatial & temporal resolution Low spectral resolution (unless MS or lidar is used) Med. To high cost Quality issues (overlap, cloud cover, georectifying can be a challenge), HUD
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Low cost High spectral, lower spatial
and temporal resolutions Expands the scale of inference Spatial Temporal
Active fires: Fire perimeter, risk to communities & roads, smoke direction and intensity, fire severity
Past fires: Landscape scale effectiveness of fuels treatments over time Dependent variables: area
burned, fire severity
ETM+ bands 7, 5, and 3.
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• 30-80 year fire return interval • Late spring / early summer fires
associated w/ drought, high winds, low RH, high temperature
• High-intensity, large scale, stand-replacing crown fires
• Auto-successional (fire climax) ecosystem
• Pinus clausa (sand pine) is serotinous
Fire Regime Without fire, sand pine scrub will likely succeed to xeric oak/hickory scrub.
Godwin and Kobziar, 2011
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2006 Prescribed
Fire 2009 Wildfire
5,900 ha.
Wilderness
3800 ha.
Burned
Godwin and Kobziar, 2011
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Issues: Need to conducted ground sampling to “train” RS evaluations of breakpoints between burn severity levels Timing of images must coincide with consistent veg. phenology phase Specific to ecosystem (“function of place”)
Landsat-5 TM •Four Scenes Used (2 pre-fire vs. 2 post-fire) •30 m resolution •Image classification: supervised worked best
Index used to determine fire severity • Normalized Burn Ratio (Key and Benson 2006)
• NBR = Band 4 – Band 7 / Band 4 + Band 7 • Band 4 = Near Infrared (veg. decreases following fire) • Band 7 = Mid Infrared (soil increases following fire) • dNBR = NBR pre fire – NBR post fire
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(Lentile et. al, 2006)
Function of Place
BU
RN
SE
VE
RIT
Y
LOW
MODERATE
HIGH
CA MT AK
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Is this simply a stand-replacing system, or is there spatial variability in fire effects? How does fire severity relate to pre-burn conditions (stand
age, density, topography, etc.)? How does an initial fire affect subsequent fires? What are the consequences for the conservation of
the sand pine ecosystem?
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Landsat 5 supervised classification •~ 68% overall accuracy / ground truthing • High spatial variability (Godwin and Kobziar 2011)
Results: Accuracy of dNBR Severity Δ NBR Threshold Unburned -100- 57 Low 58 - 382 Moderate 383 - 596 High > 597
“Vaporized pre-cooked” sapling stand (mod. severity 2006, high 2009)
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76% burned 45% burned
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-26x -139x
-247x -314x
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Stand Age, Fire Frequency
Fire
Sev
erit
y
Senescent, freq. low Sapling, freq. high
Low
High Sand pine scrub High BA
Sand pine scrub Low BA
Oak Palmetto Scrub
Sand pine scrub Low BA
Oak Hammock
Oak Palmetto Scrub
Oak Palmetto Scrub
Sand pine scrub High BA
Oak Hammock
Freeman and Kobziar, 2011
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Severity mapping can target sampling strategies for tracking ecological responses across landscapes; these can then be projected to make spatially explicit predictions Only 18% of burned wilderness area is likely to return to sand pine
scrub We now know where these areas are, so they can be managed
appropriately Prescribed burning helps reduce wildfire area burned (-31%),
but effectiveness depends on fire severity (low severity 36% prob. of being unburned vs. high severity 67% unburned)
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• Osceola National Forest (FL): Pine
flatwoods forest, FRI 3-5 yrs., 30,000 of 230,000 acres prescribed burned annually
• Each fire assessed for severity using dNBR,
plus time since last fire, fire frequency, veg. type, soil type, and drought index
• Logistic regression modeling analysis based on a decade (217 fires) of RS imagery to determine historical fuel treatment effects (1998-2009)
• How do compounded prescribed burn fuel treatments influence fire severity?
Malone, S., Kobziar, L. N., Staudhammer, C. L., Abd-Elrahman, A. 2011. Using 217 individual fire severity analyses to model subsequent fire severity in southern pine forests. Remote Sensing 3: 2005-2028.
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Severity level ( αi) of the first fire Time interval between the first
and second fire (βj ) Type of fire (γk ) PDSI for the year before and the
year of each fire event (τ1-4)
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• - Fire Frequency X1ij • + Time since last fire X2ij • Interaction
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• Given an ignition, this enables managers to make informed choices about allocation of suppression efforts • Firefighter safety • Suppression effectiveness • Encourages consideration of
let-burn options where severity is unlikely to be high
• Prior to ignition, targeted fuels treatments can be enacted
• Their effectiveness can then be traced over time using RS
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Fire Science Lab Members: David Godwin, Jesse Kreye, Adam Watts, Brenda Thomas, Mike Camp, Eric Carvalho, Dawn McKinstry, Leland Taylor, Johanna Freeman, Kathryn King, Alex Kattan, Jared Beauchamp, Steve Miller, Nichole Strickler, Terri Mashour
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Lankoande, M., and J. Yoder, 2006. “An Econometric Model of Wildfire Suppression Productivity.” Working Paper, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University (2006): 40 pp.
Key CH, Benson NC, 2006. Landscape Assessment: Ground measure of severity, the Composite Burn Index; and Remote sensing of severity, the Normalized Burn Ratio. In ‘FIREMON: Fire Effects Monitoring andInventory System’. (Eds DC Lutes, RE Keane, JF Caratti, CH Key, NC Benson, S Sutherland, LJ Gangi) USDAForest Service, Rocky Mountain
Research Station, GeneralTechnical ReportRMRS-GTR-164-CD: LA1-51. (Ogden, UT) Godwin, D.R., Kobziar, L.N., 2011. Comparison of burn severities of consecutive large-scale
fires in Florida sand pine scrub using satellite imagery analysis. Fire Ecology 7, 99-113
Malone, S., Kobziar, L. N., Staudhammer, C. L., Abd-Elrahman, A., 2011. Using 217 individual fire severity analyses to model subsequent fire severity in southern pine forests. Remote Sensing 3: 2005-2028.
Freeman, J., Kobziar, L. N. 2011. Tracking postfire successional trajectories in a plant community prone to high-intensity fire. Ecological Applications 21: 61-74.