Fire Danger Rating in the European Forest Fire Information ... · EFFIS - The European Forest Fire...
Transcript of Fire Danger Rating in the European Forest Fire Information ... · EFFIS - The European Forest Fire...
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada - July 14 – 16, 2008 1
Fire Danger Rating in the European Forest Fire Danger Rating in the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS)Fire Information System (EFFIS)
of the European Commissionof the European Commission
Andrea Camia
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada - July 14 – 16, 2008 2
OutlineOutline
• What is JRC• What is EFFIS• Fire Danger Rating in Europe and in EFFIS• Fire conditions and fire seasons in EU• The adoption of FWI and on going work• Weather data and forecasts• Operational fire danger rating in the EFFIS system • New products and further improvements
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada - July 14 – 16, 2008 3
The mission of the JRC is to provide customer-driven scientific and technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring of EU policies.
As a service of the European Commission, the JRC functions as a reference centre of science and technology for the Union.
Close to the policy-making process, it serves the common interest of the Member States, while being independent of special interests, whether private or national.
JRCJRC’’s Missions Mission
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EFFIS EFFIS -- The European Forest Fire Information SystemThe European Forest Fire Information System
• EC initiative started in 1998– Legal framework– Support by Member States
• A network of EC services (DG ENV, DG JRC) and Member States fire agencies
• Scientific and technical infrastructure providing EU level information to support forest fire protection
• A web based platform with different modules (effis.jrc.it)
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Fire danger information exchange during 1998Fire danger information exchange during 1998
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• In EU there is a relative young tradition in FDR and many different approaches
• The fire danger rating module of EFFIS has been established as unified platform for implementing at the EU scale selected national indices
• The main motivation was having a common system to support preparedness and cooperation among EU countries
• Today the Canadian FWI has been adopted (research and development still on going)
Fire danger rating in Europe and EFFISFire danger rating in Europe and EFFIS
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FIRE FREQUENCYAverage number of fires per year
0
1 - 5
6 - 10
11 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 500
501 - 1,000
1,001 - 4,860
NO FIRE DATA
FIRE DENSITY# Fires / Year / 10 sqkm of Wild land
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03 - 0.05
0.06 - 0.08
0.09 - 0.12
0.13 - 0.18
0.19 - 0.26
0.27 - 0.60
0.61 - 24.98
NO FIRE DATA
About 65,000 wildfires per year in EU
Fire conditions and fire seasons in EUFire conditions and fire seasons in EU
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BURNED AREAAverage bured area per y ear (Ha)
0
1 - 10
11 - 50
51 - 100
101 - 250
251 - 500
501 - 1,000
1,001 - 2,500
2,501 - 5,000
5,001 - 15 ,479
NO F IRE DATA
WILDLAND FRACTION BURNEDTotal burned area / Year / W ild land area
0%
0.01% - 0.00%
0.01%
0.02% - 0.01%
0.02% - 0.03%
0.04% - 0.09%
0.10% - 0.19%
0.20% - 0.44%
0.45% - 1.06%
1.07% - 6.39%
NO F IRE DATA
About 500,000 hectares burned per year in EU
Fire conditions and fire seasons in EUFire conditions and fire seasons in EU
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FIRE F REQUENCY
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NO V
DEC
Fire conditions and fire seasons in EUFire conditions and fire seasons in EU
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BURNED AREA
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NO V
DEC
Fire conditions and fire seasons in EUFire conditions and fire seasons in EU
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Regionalization of EuropeForest Ecosystem s Regions
Polar
Boreal
Moderate Temperate
Warm Temperate
Arid M oderate
Mediterranean
Orobiom
Transition B oreal / Polar
Transition B oreal / Moderate Temperate
Transition Arid Moderate / Moderate Temperate
Transition Moderate Temperate / Arid Moderate
Transition Moderate Temperate / Boreal
Transition Moderate Temperate / Mediter ranean
Transition Moderate Temperate / Warm Temperate
Transition Warm Temperate / Boreal
Transition Warm Temperate / Mediterranean
Transition Warm Temperate / Moderate Temperate
Transition Mediterranean / Moderate Temperate
Transition Mediterranean / Warm Tem perate
Fire conditions and fire seasons in EUFire conditions and fire seasons in EU
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EUMed Countries (PT, ES, FR, IT, GR) Fire frequency & Seasonal Severity Rating 1980 - 2005
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Num
berr
of f
ires
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
SS
R
Number of fires SSR
Number of fires in EUMed per fire size classes (ha)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
>=500>=100 ; <500>=50 ; <100>=10 ; <50>=5 ; <10>=1 ; <5<1
Fire conditions and fire seasons in EUFire conditions and fire seasons in EU
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EUMed Countries (PT, ES, FR, IT, GR) Burned area & Seasonal Severity Rating 1980 - 2005
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Bur
ned
area
(ha)
012345678910
SSR
Burned area SSR
Number of largeforest fires per year in EUMed
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Num
ber o
f fire
s
>=50 ; <100>=100 ; <500>=500
Fire s ize (ha)
Fire conditions and fire seasons in EUFire conditions and fire seasons in EU
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Burned area vs Monthly Severity Rating in EUMed(June to October 1985-2005)
y = 2199.1e0.4099x
R2 = 0.7551
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
MSR
Mon
thly
bur
ned
area
(ha)
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Maximum FW I difference in 2003(Adapted FWI - C anad ian FW I)
-7 .1 - -4 .7
-4 .6 - -3 .5
-3 .4 - -2 .5
-2 .4 - -1 .6
-1 .5 - -0 .9
-0 .8 - -0 .3
-0 .2 - 0 .0
Do we adapt DMC and DC for changing latitude?Do we adapt DMC and DC for changing latitude?
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Months of 2003 w ith m axim um FWI d ifference
AP R
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SE P
OCT
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FWI calibration (on going)FWI calibration (on going)
Number of large fires (>500 ha) and FWI values
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
<5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-40 40-50 >50FWI ranges
NUm
ber o
f lar
ge fi
res
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
<10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 >50
>20,00010,000-20,0005,000-10,0001,000-5,000500-1,000
Burned area (ha)
FWIclass
SizeClass
Burned area in large fires (>500 ha) by FWI ranges
Looking for the extreme fire danger thresholds
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FWI quantile36.7 - 60.0
60.1 - 70.0
70.1 - 80.0
80.1 - 90.0
90.1 - 92.0
92.1 - 95.0
95.1 - 97.0
97.1 - 98.0
98.1 - 99.0
99.1 - 100.0
FWI = 30
FWI = 40 FWI = 50
Percentiles of long term (1958-2006) of
FWI series
FWI calibration (on going)FWI calibration (on going)
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Forest fires
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800BUI
ISI
Grassland fires
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800BUI
ISI
Shrubland fires
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800BUI
ISI
ISI and BUI values in large fires (> 500 ha) ISI and BUI values in large fires (> 500 ha)
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Weather Stations network (MARS)Weather Stations network (MARS)
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Fire Danger ForecastFire Danger Forecast
From MeteoFranceSpatial resolution 0.5˚ (~ 50 km)Forecast up to 3 days
From DeutscherWetterdienstMedium resolution map
Spatial resolution 0.36˚ (~ 35 km)Forecast up to 7 days
High resolution mapSpatial resolution 0.0625˚ (~ 7 km)Forecast up to 3 days
ECMWF ensemble forecast under consideration
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Two new products introduced in 2008:
- FWI daily anomalies- FWI absolute ranking
Both based on long term (50 years) computation of daily FWI values (ERA40 dataset)
New productsNew products
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Every day the FWI value in a given pixel is also assessed as the distance from the long term average FWI value for that pixel & time of the year
The standardized distance (z score) is named anomaly
0
5
10
15
20
25
0101 0131 0301 0331 0430 0530 0629 0729 0828 0927 1027 1126 1226Day
DSR
AV_DSR -0.675TDEV_DSR +0.675TDEV_DSR DSR2003
AV_DSR W11 -0.675TDEV_DSR +0.675TDEV_DSR
FWI anomaliesFWI anomalies
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Edmonton, Alberta, Canada - July 14 – 16, 2008 26
FWI absolute rankingFWI absolute ranking
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Climate change impact on fire dangerClimate change impact on fire danger
• Average and extreme fire weather trend analysis with FWI computed for last 50 years in EU (from ECMWF ERA40 dataset)
• Outlook of future trends under given climate change scenarios