Finnish Technology Industry Situation and Outlook, September 2014
Finnish Technology Industry, January 2016
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Transcript of Finnish Technology Industry, January 2016
Technology Industry /Finnish Economic Situation and Outlook
January 2016
2
• 50% of total Finnish exports.
• 75% of private-sector R&D investment.
• Over 280,000 employed directly in the sector, 700,000 employed in total, equalling about 30% of the entire Finnish labour force.
• The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries has over 1,600 member companies.
The Technology Industry – the Largest Export Sector in Finland
8.6.2015
3
Mechanical EngineeringAbloy, Cargotec, Finn-Power, Fiskars, Glaston, Kone, Konecranes, Metso, Meyer Turku, Normet, Oras, Patria, Pemamek, Ponsse, Stala, Valmet, Valtra, Wärtsilä…
Electronics and Electrotechnical IndustryABB, Ensto, Microsoft Mobile, Murata Electronics, Nokia, Planmeca, Polar Electro, Suunto, Vacon, Vaisala…
Information TechnologyAffecto, Basware, Bilot, CGI, Comptel, Digia, Efecte, Enfo, F-Secure, Fujitsu Finland, IBM, Innofactor, Knowit, Microsoft, Nixu, Tieto…
Metals IndustryBoliden, Componenta, Kuusakoski, Luvata, Outokumpu, Outotec, Ovako, Sacotec, SSAB …
Consulting EngineeringA-Insinöörit, Citec, Elomatic, Etteplan, FCG, Granlund, Neste Jacobs, Pöyry, Ramboll, Rejlers, SITO, SWECO, WSP...
The Finnish Technology Industry Is Comprised of Five Sub-Sectors
8.6.2015
4
The Finnish Technology Industry is Comprised of Five Sub-Sectors
Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry• Data communications equipment,electrical machinery, medical technology products• Turnover (2014): 15.3 billion euros• Personnel (2014): 42,100
Metals Industry• Steel products, non-ferrous metals, castings• Turnover (2014): 9.8 billion euros• Personnel (2014): 15,700
Mechanical Engineering• Machinery, metal products, vehicles• Turnover (2014): 26.8 billion euros• Personnel (2014): 122,300
Consulting Engineering• Expertise for construction industry and infrastructure• Turnover (2014): 5.3 billion euros• Personnel (2014): 46,200
Information Technology• IT services, applications and programming• Turnover (2014): 10.0 billion euros• Personnel (2014): 58,500
8.6.2015
8.6.20155
Turnover of the Technology Industry in Finland
Billion euros, at current prices
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Electronics and electrotechnical industryMechanical engineeringMetals industryConsulting engineeringInformation technology
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland
6 8.6.2015
Export of Technology Industry Goods from Finland by Area in 2014Total goods exports 26.2 billion euros*
North America2.6 billion €9.8%
Western Europe13.1 billion €50.1%
Middle and Central East0.5 billion € 2.1%
Asia4.1 billion €15.8%
Africa0.5 billion €1.8%
South and Middle America0.9 billion €3.3%
Central and Eastern Europe4.5 billion €17.1%
*) In addition to goods exports the sector exported services worth 10.9 billion euros.Source: National Board of Customs, Statistics Finland
7 8.6.2015
Turnover of the Industry and Technology Industry in Finland
Index 2005=100 Change: 1-10,2015 / 1-10,2014, %
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Technology Industry0 %Industry-5 %
Latest information: October, 20152005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland
8 8.6.2015
Turnover of the Technology Industry in Finland
Index 2005=100 Change: 1-10,2015 / 1-10,2014, %
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Electronics andElectrotechnical Industry-12 %
Mechanical Engineering3 %Metals Industry4 %
Consulting Engineering7 %
Information Technology11 %
Latest information: October, 20152005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland
8.6.20159
Value of New Orders in the Technology Industry* in Finland
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,000
Combined
Export
Domestic
Million euros, at current prices
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information July-August 2015
*) Excluding metals industry and game industry companies.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Change: III,2015 / III,2014 III,2015 / II,2015Export: -18 % -15 %Domestic: -30 % -27 %Combined: -21 % -18 %
01.05.202310
Value of New Orders in the Technology Industry* in Finland Without Ship Orders
80859095
100105110115120125130135140145150
Combined
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Four quarters’ moving sum, index 2005=100
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information July-September 2015
*) Excluding ship yards, metals industry and game industry companies.
8.6.201511
Value of Order Books in the Technology Industry* in Finland
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,000
Export
Domestic
Million euros, at current prices
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information 30.9.2015
*) Excluding metals industry and game industry companies.
Combined
Change: 30.9.2015 / 30.9.2014 30.9.2015 / 30.6.2015Export: +14 % +7 %Domestic: +6 % -3 %Combined: +11 % +4 %
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
12Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey, latest information October 2015.
“Have you experienced a notable increase or decrease in the number of requests for tenders in recent weeks in comparison to the situation three months ago?”. Balance figure = the number of companies receiving more requests - the number of companies receiving less requests.
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Balance figure
8.6.2015
Tender Requests* Received by Technology Industry Companies in Finland
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
8.6.201513
Value of New Orders in the Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry in Finland
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Combined
Export
Domestic
Million euros, at current prices
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Change: III,2015 / III,2014 III,2015 / II,2015Export: -38 % -9 %Domestic: -9 % -17 %Combined: -35 % -11 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information July-September 2015
8.6.201514
Value of Order Books in the Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry in Finland
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Export
Domestic
Combined
Million euros, at current prices
Change: 30.9.2015 / 30.9.2014 30.9.2015 / 30.6.2015Export: -19 % -5 %Domestic: -2 % -12 %Combined: -17 % -6 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information 30.9.2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
8.6.201515
Value on New Orders in the Mechanical Engineering in Finland
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500
Combined
Export
Domestic
Million euros, at current prices
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Change: III,2015 / III,2014 III,2015 / II,2015Export: +6 % -17 %Domestic: -51 % -44 %Combined: -11 % -23 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information July-August 2015
8.6.201516
Value of Order Books in the Mechanical Engineering in Finland
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,000
Series3 Export
Combined
Million euros, at current prices
Change: 30.9.2015 / 30.9.2014 30.9.2015 / 30.6.2015Export: +31 % +12 %Domestic: +4 % -9 %Combined: +24 % +7 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information 30.9.2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
8.6.201517
Value of New Orders in the Consulting Engineering in Finland
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
Combined
Export
Domestic
Million euros, at current prices
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Change: III,2015 / III,2014 III,2015 / II,2015Export: -35 % -53 %Domestic: +18 % -26 %Combined: +10 % -30 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information July-August 2015
8.6.201518
Value of Order Books in the Consulting Engineering in Finland
050
100150200250300350400450500550600650
Export
Domestic
Combined
Million euros, at current prices
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information 30.9.2015
Change: 30.9.2015 / 30.9.2014 30.9.2015 / 30.6.2015Export: -9 % -2 %Domestic: +26 % +3 %Combined: +19 % +2 %
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
8.6.201519
Value of New Orders in the Information Technology in Finland
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800 Million euros, at current prices
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Change: III,2015 / III,2014 III,2015 / II,2015Combined: -1 % -4 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information July-August 2015
*) Excl. game industry companies
8.6.201520
Value of Order Books in the Information Technology in Finland
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,800
Million euros, at current prices
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Change: 30.9.2015 / 30.9.2014 30.9.2015 / 30.6.2015Combined: +8 % +7 %
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, latest information 30.9.2015
*) Excl. game industry companies
30.7.201521
Personnel in the Technology Industry
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (30.9)
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
330,000
350,000
Personnel in Finland Personnel in subsidiaries abroad
Source: Statistics Finland, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey
Some 12,000 of personnel affected by temporary or part-time lay-offs 30.9.2015
7.5.201522
Technology Industry Personnel in Finland by Branch
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (30.9)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry Mechanical engineering industry Metals industryConsulting engineering Information technology
Source: Statistics Finland, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry Mechanical engineering industry Metals industryConsulting engineering Information technology
8.6.201523
Technology Industry Personnel in Subsidiaries Abroad by Branch
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey
24
Retirement of Technology Industry Personnel
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
Number of individuals retired Number of individuals retiring (estimation)
Source: Wage inquiry of the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries, Finnish Centre for Pensions, Statistics Finland
Individuals per year
Salaried employees
Blue collar employees
8.6.2015
25
Retirement of Technology Industry Blue Collar Employees
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Mechanical engineering Metals industry Electronics and electrotechnical industry
Source: Wage inquiry of the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries, Finnish Centre for Pensions, Statistics Finland
Individuals per year
8.6.2015
26
- Finland is in the grip of structural change. Development remains uneven between companies.
- Turnover in Finland in January-October 2015 remained at the same level as 2014. In 2014 turnover totalled EUR 67 billion. In the pre-crisis year 2008 it was EUR 86 billion.
- The monetary value of new orders reported between July-September 2015 was 21% lower than in the corresponding period in 2014, and 18% lower than in the preceding quarter.
- At the end of September, the value of order books was 11% higher year-on-year, and 4% higher the value reported at the end of June.
- Growth of orders was driven particularly by ship orders, which are produced over a period of several years.
- The turnover of technology industry companies in late 2015 is expected to remain at the same level as in the corresponding period last year.
- Since 2008, personnel numbers in Finland have shrunk by 43,000 employees, totalling 282,000 at the end of September 2015.
Situational Overview and Outlook in the Technology Industry
8.6.2015
27
Developing Countries Pose a Risk to the Recovery in
Europe
8.6.2015
13.8.201528
GDP is Growing in Western Europe and USA , Except in Finland
Source: Macrobond
Index 2005=100
92,5
95,0
97,5
100,0
102,5
105,0
107,5
110,0
112,5
115,0
117,5
120,0
Latest information: 2015 Q32005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SwedenEstoniaUSAGermanyUKFranceSpainFinland
01.05.202329
Growth is Lowering in ChinaRecession Continues in Russia and Brazil Share of global GDP in these countries is 23%, in China 16% (adjusted for PP)
Source: Macrobond
GDP change over previous year, %
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Latest information: 2015 Q42005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China (official)BrazilRussia
30
GDP Growth Has Continued in Eurozone in January 2016 Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI), 50 = no change from previous month
Latest information January 2016. Source: Markit
8.6.2015
31
Industrial Production Volume
Source: Macrobond 8.6.2015
Index 2008=100
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Latest information: December, 20152008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USAEU countriesJapanFinland
32
Industrial Production Volume in EU Countries
Source: Macrobond 8.6.2015
Index 2008=100
Inde
x
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Latest information: November, 20152008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PolandEstoniaBelgiumAustriaGermanySwedenItalyFinlandSpain
01.05.202333
Global Industrial Production Growth has Slowed Down
Source: Macrobond, The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Index 2008=100
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Latest information: November 20152008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Emerging countriesWorldDeveloped countries
01.05.202334
Industrial Production in China is Dropping Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in China50 = no change from previous month
Latest information December 2016. Source: Markit
35
Industrial Production in Russia is DroppingPurchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Russia50 = no change from previous month
Latest information December 2015. Source: Markit
8.6.2015
36
Industrial Production in Brazil is DroppingPurchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Russia50 = no change from previous month
Latest information December 2015. Source: Markit
8.6.2015
37
Industrial Production in India is DroppingPurchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Russia50 = no change from previous month
Latest information December 2015. Source: Markit
8.6.2015
01.05.202338
Industrial Production in USA is DroppingPurchase Managers’ Index (PMI) in manufacturing industry in Russia50 = no change from previous month
Lähde: Macrobond
323436384042444648505254565860
Latest information: December, 20152005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
01.05.202339
Growth of Residence Construction Has Finished in China Share of China in Asian GDP is 42% (adjusted for PP)
Source: Macrobond
Change over previous year, %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Latest information: November 20152005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
01.05.202340
Fixed Investments in Russia and Brazil are FallingShare of Russia in European GDP is 13% (adjusted for PP)Share of Brazil in Latin American GDP is 35% (adjusted for PP)
Source: Macrobond
Change over previous year, %
-20-16-12
-8-4048
121620242832
Latest information: 2015 Q32008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
RussiaBrazil
01.05.202341
Import to Emerging Countries Has LoweredImport volume development
Source: Macrobond, The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Index 2008=100
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Latest information: November 20152008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Emerging AsiaEmerging countriesWorldDeveloped countries
01.05.202342
Import to China Has Reduced from Other Countries
Source: Macrobond
US dollars, at current prices, 3 month moving sum, change over previous year, %
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Latest information: December 20152008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
North AmericaIndonesiaTaiwanSouth KoreaJapanEU countriesIndia
43
Exports from EU Countries to Russia is Falling
Source: Macrobond8.6.2015
Export value in each countries's own currency, 12 months sliding sum, index 2005 = 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Latest information: November 20152005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EstoniaUKBelgiumAustriaFranceGermanyItalyNetherlandsSwedenNorwayDenmarkFinland
44
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
e
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
Russia’s Share of Technology Industry Exports Will Decline Again to the Level of Approximately Five Per Cent
%
*) Soviet Union up to 1991. Source: Finnish Customs
8.6.2015
01.05.202345
Raw Material Prices are FallingSpot prices of hot-rolled coils
01/2005 01/2006 01/2007 01/2008 01/2009 01/2010 01/2011 01/2012 01/2013 01/2014 01/2015100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,400
USA Germany Russia China Brazil
US dollars / ton
Latest information December 2015Source: CRU
01.05.202346
Exchange Rates in Emerging Countries are Varying Euro exchange rate compared to other currencies
Source: Macrobond
Change over previous year, %
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Latest information: 22 January 2016
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov2014 2015
Russia roubleBrazil realTurky liraMalesia ringgitMexico pesoSouth Africa randIndonesia rupiaThailand bahtChina juanUS dollar
05/01/202347
Global Economy is Expected to Grow by 3.4 % in 2016GDP growth in 2016, %
Source: IMF (January 2016)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100-4-3-2-10123456789
North AmericaWestern Europe
Japan
China
India
Rest of Asia
Res
t of E
aste
rn
Euro
pe
Rus
sia
Bra
zil
Mex
ico
Res
t of L
atin
A
mer
ica
Mid
dle
East
and
Afr
ica
The width of the bar indicates the share of global GDP in 2014 (adjusted for purchasing power parity), %
Average growth: +3,4 %
05/01/202348 Source IMF (January 2016), Board of Customs
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100-4-3-2-10123456789
North America Western Europe Japan
China
India
Rest ofAsia
Res
t of E
aste
rn
Euro
pe
Rus
sia
Bra
zil
Mex
ico R
est o
f Lat
in A
mer
ica
Mid
dle
East
and
Afr
ica
The width of the bar indicates the export share of technology industry from Finland in 2014, %
Average growth: +2,3 %
Export Demand for Technology Industry in Finland Will Grow by 2.3% in 2016 GDP growth in 2016, %
49
Breakdown of World Industrial Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Asia
North America
Europe
Purchasing power parity adjusted shares. Source: Maddison (Historical Statistics), IMF and ETLA
%
8.6.2015
50
Industrial Production Development by Year
Source: Macrobond8.6.2015
Index 2005=100
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ChinaIndiaSouth-KoreaRussiaBrazilUSAJapanEuro zoneFinland
51
The Big Challenge for Finland after 2008
8.6.2015
52
Finnish Exports up to EUR 30 Billion Short of Annual Target Level
Source: Macronond, Statistics Finland / National Accounts8.6.2015
Export of goods and services by quarter, billion euros at current prices
Exports neededto avoid extrarunning intodebt in thepublic sector
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Latest information: 2015 Q32005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Exportsrealized
53
Finnish Exports Lagging Behind Competitors
Source: Macrobond, Eurostat 8.6.2015
Export of goods and services by quarter, billion euros, at current prices, index 2005=100
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PolandEstoniaChech RepublicGermanySpainBelgiumSwedenFinland
54
The Share of Industry in GDP in Finland 1900-2014
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Industry* Industry + service sectors in the technology industry
*) During 1900-1974 industry covers also mines, energy, water and refuse collection sectors. Source: Statistics Finland / National Accounts
8.6.2015
55 12.6.2015
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Industrial pro-duction ability (production with capacity in full use), left. Scale
Industrial pro-duction (2008=100), left scale
Capacity utiliza-tion rate, %, right scale-20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-21%
Source: Statistics Finland / National Accounts, Industrial volume index
Finland’s Industrial Production Will not Regain the Level of 2008 with the Present Production CapacityFinland’s production capasity has decreased by 20%
56
Growth of Public Debt and Tax Rate Out of ControlIncreased cost burden requires cuts to public sector
Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland 8.6.2015
Central and local government debt and public expenditures, billion euros, at nominal prices
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
39,5
40,0
40,5
41,0
41,5
42,0
42,5
43,0
43,5
44,0
44,5
45,0
45,5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total tax ratio, % of GDPCentral government debtPublic expendituresLocal government debt
Latest information: 2015 Q3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e2016e2017e859095
100105110115120125130135140145150155Corporate sector fixed investments, index 2005=100
SwedenThe NetherlandsUSAGermanySwitzerlandFinland
01.05.202357
Upswing of Investments Required in Finland
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook 2015
58
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Manufacturing industry Technology industry
Industrial Companies’ Investment Plans Indicate an Increase in Investments Both in 2015 and 2016Industrial fixed and R&D investments in Finland
Source: Statistics Finland, Confederation of Finnish Industries’ Investment Survey (January 2016)
Million euros, at current prices
8.6.2015
59
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201495
100105110115120125130135140145150155160
Manufacturing industry
Technology industry
National economy
Turning Point of Productivity* Development in FinlandAfter 2008 Finland has lost considerable volume production in electronics, forest and machinery industries**
Source: Statistics Finland / National Accounts
*) Productivity is measured as real value added per hours worked. When productivity grows (the curve rises) value added grows more than hours worked. Value added = turnover – purchasing of materials and servicesValue added = labour costs + rents + depreciations + profits
**) The structure of current industry does not enable the similar productivity development as during the years 2000-2008
8.6.2015
Index, 2000=100
60
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Compared to Belgium Compared to Germany Compared to SpainCompared to Italy Compared to the Netherlands Compared to AustriaCompared to Finland
*) In the ECB Harmonised Competitiveness Index, the average effective exchange rate of each country is calculated vis-à-vis 20 to 30 main trade partners, as well as the development of unit labour costs for the total economy.Latest information III/2015. Source: European Central Bank
Finland’s price and costcompetitivenessdeclines
2005,I =100
Finland’s price and costcompetitivenessimproves
Unit Labour Costs at the National Economy LevelUnit labour costs = labour costs / productivity, including the influence of effective exchange rates
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
8.6.2015
61
Support the renewal of the industry Taxes should support growth and investment in Finland Support decision making in companies related to compensation and
working time No new European nor national burdens on companies, which are
deteriorating the competitiveness
What should be done?
8.6.2015
62
Global Structural Change Set to Continue Apace– Industrial production and services will relocate to rapidly developing economic areas– Strong growth, large markets, cheap labour and increasing expertise will increase the
attractiveness of these regions.
Competition over Skills and Raw Materials Set to Increase– Due to an increase in retirement, the sector’s annual recruitment need in Finland will rise
considerably in the coming years.– The availability of reasonably-priced energy also threatens to become an investment
bottleneck in Finland
Combating Climate Change– A challenge as costs are set to grow faster than in competitor countries – An opportunity for new environmental and energy technologies
Long-Term Outlook and Challenges
8.6.2015
63
The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries
8.6.2015
64
The Federation’s Member Companies 2014
7106938%
2808914%
2599717%
5861731%
143991%
80 5%
46 3%
23 1%
Number of enteprises / 1 583 Number of personnel / 183 772
1–249 employees
250–499 employees
500–999 employees
1000– employees
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology industries8.6.2015
65
The Federation’s SME Member Companies 2014
506 35%
475 33%
258 18%
206 14%
Number of enterprises / 1 439 Number of personnel / 71 069
1–19 employees
20–49 employees
50–99 employees
100–249 employees
52617%
1504721%
1826327%
3249845%
Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology industries8.6.2015