Finding Common Ground – Disaster Resiliency, Preparedness and Talking to our Neighbors…

My background Round the room 30 second intro: Name, Why here How Prepared Are You? Resources and Book list included in PPT handoutWhat class is and is not – you won’t necessarily leave ‘prepared’

Starting the conversation from a place of knowledge…

Types of Disasters and their effects on our Infrastructure (Transportation, Structures,

Communications, Water, Fuel, etc).

Objectives for classEncourage creation of depth of knowledge

Step out of typical disciplines - study ‘how people learn’ neuroscience and other areas of research and study

Find more common ground. Reduce protective conversations. Increase: listening; pragmatism; realism; your ability to find shared interests.

Represent well. Question (internally) even that which you believe in wholeheartedly. Become a crusader for scientific, evidence based information.

Disasters and Oregon• Peak Oil (Food Security and the rest)• Climate Change• Water Scarcity • 9.1 Subduction Zone Earthquake• Tsunami• Pandemic Influenza• Volcano • Winter Storms - Severe Weather • Wildfire• Terrorism

Subduction Zone EQ

Earthquake• Winning the Powerball Lottery

– 1 in 80,089,128

• Being hit by lightning – 1 in 2,800,000

• A Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake – in the next year – 1 in 500– In the next 50 years - 1 in 5

• An earthquake occurring in the Pacific Northwest in the next few days– 100%

20 Minute Walkable / Bikeable Community…

Earthquake Effects • Communications• Transportation• Water/Waste Water• Medical• Food• Utilities

• Duration – 2 ½ yrs

2009 US Infrastructure Grades - ASCE

• Aviation D• Bridges C• Dams D• Drinking Water D-• Energy D+• Hazardous Waste D• Inland Waterways D-• Levees D-

• Parks & Recreation C-• Rail C-• Roads D-• School D• Solid Waste C+• Transit D• Wastewater D-

http://www.asce.org/reportcard/

Tsunami

• After EQ or without warning• Head to high ground - think about your route

as soon as you find yourself at a coast (abandon car, 100 vertical feet up)

• Water goes out - you go up• Follow the animals• Difficulty with inundation mapping (sea floor

map needed).

Pandemic Influenza• Seasonal Flu - deaths per year (actual number

higher), prevention (social distancing, hygiene and vaccine).

• Contagion• 1918 - number of deaths = 20 million to 100

million worldwide. Problem with names• Medicine of the day• ‘Bird’ Flu - H5N1• H1N1• Duration/Cycle

Water Scarcity

• The most precious resource in the world• What do we do with this most precious

resource in the United States?

”Civilized people ought to know how to dispose of [the] sewage in some other

way than putting it into the drinking water.”Teddy Roosevelt

Environmental scientists in California have calculated that sewage discharged near 28 Southern California beaches has contributed to up to 1.5 million excess gastrointestinal illnesses, costing as much as $51 million in health care. We can do better.

Water Scarcity Map

A catastrophic water shortage could prove an even bigger threat to mankind this century than soaring food

prices and the relentless exhaustion of energy reserves, according to a panel of global experts at the Goldman

Sachs "Top Five Risks" conference.

• Disputes over cross-border water basins have already prompted Egypt to threaten military action against any country that draws water off the Nile without agreement.

• Lord Stern, the World Bank's former chief economist, said governments had been slow to accept the awful truth that usable water is running out. Fresh rainfall is not enough to refill the underground water tables. "Water is not a renewable resource. People have been mining it without restraint because it has not been priced properly,”

• How to properly price? Externalities of industry, enough to support infrastructure even with conservation

• Rival

Water-Related Emergencies and Outbreaks Fast Facts

* The largest waterborne disease outbreak in United States history occurred in 1993 in Milwaukee, WI when over 400,000 people became ill with diarrhea when the parasite Cryptosporidium was found in the city's drinking water supply (3).

* Legionnaire’s Disease got its name in 1976 from American Legion members who attended a convention in Philadelphia and were the first to suffer from an outbreak of this disease (4).

* Treating water with chlorine tablets, iodine tablets, or liquid bleach will not kill all parasites that can contaminate water; boiling or appropriate filtration is required (6).

THE WORLD’S SILENT EPIDEMIC

More than one billion people lack access to a safe supply of drinking water.

Water-related diseases cause 80% of all of the sickness of the world and are the leading cause of death in the world,

responsible for 14,000 deaths each day. WaterPartners International

Water• Currently, only 91 contaminants are regulated by the Safe Drinking

Water Act, though more than 60,000 chemicals are used within the United States.

• Today, a significant water line bursts on average every two minutes somewhere in the country, according to a New York Times analysis of EPA data.

• State and federal studies indicate that thousands of water and sewer systems may be too old to function properly.

• For decades, these systems — some built around the time of the Civil War others the same year the light bulb was invented — have been ignored by politicians and residents accustomed to paying almost nothing for water delivery and sewage removal. And so each year, hundreds of thousands of ruptures damage streets and homes and cause dangerous pollutants to seep into drinking water supplies.

Learn more about your drinking water!

EPA strongly encourages people to learn more about their drinking water, and to support local efforts to protect and

upgrade the supply of safe drinking water.

• Your water bill or telephone book's government listings are a good starting point.

• Your local water supplier can give you a list of the chemicals they test for in your water, as well as how your water is treated.

• Your state Department of Health/Environment is also a valuable source of information.

• For help in locating these agencies or for information on drinking water in general, call: EPA's Safe Drinking Water Hotline: (800) 426-4791.

• For additional information on the uses and releases of chemicals in your state, contact the: Community Right-to-Know Hotline: (800) 424-9346

Peak Oil

• Duration• No silver bullet• Cascading effects – food, roads, cars…• Technology timing - Bridging the gap• Descent plan• Transition towns

Preserve & Increase Local Food Production and

Capability

Long Term Supply Leveling Off, Demand Outstrips Production

When Will Oil Production Peak?

Ease of Production: Past and Present

Energy Returned on Energy Invested, I.e. Net Energy

U.S. Energy MixThe problem with oil supply alternatives

Oil Shale / Oil Sands

• CO2 Emissions• Land destruction• Water Pollution• Oil Shale energy low

Coal - why not?

• Coal - why not?– Water – Air

– National Priority: Cut CO2 Pollution at least 80% by 2050 (source) National Resource Defense Council - get slide

– Is this realistic - can we do it- the need for a bridge resource of energy…what is it?

Nuclear

Hydrogen

BioFuels

Renewables: Wind & Solar

Consume Less Stuff

Reinvigorate Rail

Transit Alternatives

Conservation, Transportation & Land Use Policies

Pedestrian/Bicycle Friendly Developments

20 minute Communities

Climate Change

• Dinosaurs farting or people driving…• Science – CPR • Mosquitoes and other cooties• Climate ‘weirding’ - hot=hotter, cold=colder,

stormy=stormier - but not always…• Migrations, Greenland• Gardeners…

Volcanoes

• Mt Rainer, Mt Tabor, Mt Hood, Yellowstone…

• Ash• Lahars• Planes, trains and automobiles• Respiratory• Roofs

Winter Weather/Severe Storms - Wildfire

• Rural vs Urban (MN vs Portland)• Self Reliance• 911 and the rain storm• Sheltering and Feeding

Wildfire

• Risks• Mitigation• Prevention• Evacuation• Long Term Recovery - land use,

How to Prepare• Limitation of 72 hour ‘kits’ - what are they

really good for?• How long should you be prepared? How do

you do that?• Inter-dependant vs Independent• Romantic-ization vs Realism• Acceptance of all efforts as valid and

concurrent – support vs attack

What Can You Do?

• Reach out to your neighbors – learn how to make friends• Continue your training – Build Skills - trade skills, food

skills, advocacy skills• Develop internal sources of strength – read some of the

books listed on this presentation – become resilient• Get civically active - participate in local politics - fix it• Spread the word - know your facts, be open to additional

information & focus on your interests and strengths and encourage others to do the same.

"Adversity introduces you to yourself,"

John McDonnell, former CEO McDonnell Douglas

Princeton University basketball coach, Pete Carril, "Adversity doesn't build character, it reveals it."

Challenges, difficulties, setbacks, adversities…

They are all familiar sights on the leadership landscape. One of the things they cause us to do is come face-to-face with ourselves. They

are a rather harsh way of reminding us of what is truly important to us, what we really value,

and what we want our life to be about.

Food/Water Book List

• Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity (The Worldwatch Environmental Alert Series) by Sandra Postel (Paperback - Jun 1997)

• Cadillac Desert: The American West and Its Disappearing Water, Revised Edition by Marc Reisner (Paperback - Jan 1, 1993)

• Outgrowing The Earth by Lester R. Brown (Paperback - Jan 2005)

Food Book List• The Post-Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook:

Recipes for Changing Times by Albert Bates (Paperback - Oct 1, 2006)

• Whole Foods Companion: A Guide For Adventurous Cooks, Curious Shoppers, and lovers of natural foods by Dianne Onstad (Paperback - Mar 30, 2004)

• The Sustainable Kitchen: Passionate Cooking Inspired by Farms, Forests and Oceans by Stu Stein, Judith H. Dern, and Mary Hinds (Paperback - May 1, 2004)

• Emergency Food Storage & Survival Handbook: Everything You Need to Know to Keep Your Family Safe in a Crisis by Peggy Layton (Paperback - Oct 22, 2002)

Gardening Book List

• Four-Season Harvest: Organic Vegetables from Your Home Garden All Year Long by Eliot Coleman, Barbara Damrosch, and Kathy Bray (Paperback - Oct 1, 1999)

• Gaia's Garden, Second Edition: A Guide To Home-Scale Permaculture by Toby Hemenway (Paperback - May 19, 2009)

• Gardening When It Counts: Growing Food in Hard Times (Mother Earth News Wiser Living Series) by Steve Solomon (Paperback - April 1, 2006)

Emergency Management Book List

• Disciplines, Disasters and Emergency Management: The Convergence and Divergence of Concepts, Issues and Trends from the Research Literature by David A. Mcentire (2007)

• Disaster Policy and Politics: Emergency Management and Homeland Security by Richard Sylves (2008)

• Holistic Disaster Recovery: Ideas for Building Local Sustainability After a Natural Disaster (2003)

Emergency Management Book List

• The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, & Other Converging Catastrophes of the 21st Century, James Howard Kunstler (2006)

• The Survivor Personality, Al Siebert, PhD (1994)• The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes

and Why, Amanda Ripley• The Gift of Fear by Gavin de Becker (1999)• Emotional Intelligence: Why It Can Matter More Than

IQ by Daniel Goleman (2006)

Leadership Book List

• The Leadership Challenge, 4th Edition by James M. Kouzes and Barry Z. Posner (2008)

• How to Win Friends & Influence People by Dale Carnegie (1998)

• Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In by Roger Fisher, William L. Ury, and Bruce Patton (1991)

• Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts by Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson (2007)

ResourcesAlice Busch, sfd72fmo@hotmail.com503-668-2728 direct ; 503-237-4152 pager; 971-563-3051 cellhttp://www.oregongeology.com/sub/default.htmhttp://www.eatthesuburbs.org/edap-primer/http://www.firewise.org/http://www.worldwatch.org/http://www.transitionus.org/ Interesting video of James Woolsey, former CIA Directorhttp://fora.tv/2008/09/01/

Climate_Change_and_Energy_Security#James_Woolsey_The_Reality_of_Moving_Away_From_Oil