Financial update - Alfa Laval · 2016-10-25 · 0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6 2 2,4 2,8 3,2 3,6 0 100 200 300...
Transcript of Financial update - Alfa Laval · 2016-10-25 · 0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6 2 2,4 2,8 3,2 3,6 0 100 200 300...
Financial update
Thomas Thuresson
CFO
Alfa Laval Group
www.alfalaval.com
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2005 2007
R&D spend
SEK million
2009 2011
Percent of sales
R&D as percent of sales
2013 2015
Development of R&D spend
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Capital expenditure
2003 2005 2007
Cap ex Depr acc to plan (excl step-up)
2009 2011
Percent of sales
2013 2015 2017
SEK million Percent of sales
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Guidance - A summary
R & D-spend in relation to total revenues, 2.0 – 2.5
(>= 2.5) %
Taxes in the P&L, 28 % of PBT
Capital expenditure in relation to total revenues,
<= 2.0 %, + projects 2016 - 2017
Dividend pay-out ratio, 40 – 50 % of adjusted EPS*
*) Excluding net effect of step-up amortisation
www.alfalaval.com © Alfa Laval
Gross profit margin
30
35
40
45In percent of sales
35.2 35.3
36.7
Q315
37.0
Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q312
www.alfalaval.com © Alfa Laval Slide 7
Gross profit margin - Q3 2015 vs Q2 2015
Q2 2015:
Mix/price
Load/volume
FX
Structure
36.3
35.2
=
- -
- -
=
Q3 2015:
www.alfalaval.com © Alfa Laval Slide 8
Foreign exchange - Estimated impact on adjusted EBITA from FX fluctuations
SEK million
Translation effect
Transaction effect
Revaluation in w/c
Total
*) Transaction based on EUR/USD 1.07 and EUR/SEK 9.30
Translation based on closing rates as per October 31, -15
FY 16*
20
475
80
575
FY 15
290
300
-80
510
Q3 15
45
95
-100
40
9M 15
260
210
-100
370
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Sales revenue
Cost structure of products - Insight to assess possible effect of volume variations
COGS
Gross profit, appr 36 %
Other overhead, > 15 %
Indirect personnel, appr 7 %
Direct personnel, appr 8 %
Direct materials, other
variable & subcontract,
< 70 %
Contribution 50 %
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Step-up values up to 2019 - Closing balance and amortization according to plan, SEK million
Closing balance Amortization
LBO-related Acquisitions Amortization acc to plan
2019 2018
www.alfalaval.com
Order backlog development
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3 000
6 000
9 000
12 000
15 000
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21 000
24 000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
% of LTM-sales
Order backlog % of LTM (last twelve months) sales
SEK millions
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Order backlog as per Sept 30 - For delivery after December 31, MSEK at prevailing rates
Other Segments
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4,576
4,730
9,306
4,099
4,959
9,058
2,327
4,338
6,665
Marine & Diesel
2008 2006 2007
1,733
1,820
3,553
2005
7,705
3,655
4,050
2010
5,751
2,155
3,596 5,572
3,219
8,791
2012 2009 2011
8,650
3,508
5,142
2013
5,336
3,063
8,399
2014
5,297
9,732
15,029
5,162
8,940
14,103
2015
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Order backlog as per Sept 30 - SEK million at prevailing rates
For delivery next year
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12000
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20000
24000
7,324
6,567
13,192
8,766
15,873
6,256
15,314
8,330
For delivery later than next year
2009 2008 2007
For next year,
SEK 13,4 (13.4) Bn,
”like-for-like”
SEK - 1.1 Bn!
For delivery during the rest of current year
5,487
11,689
5,480
5,937
2010 2012
6,705
8,387
15,496
6,418
8,050
15,068
2011
15,071
7,993
6,672
2013 2014
7,371
13,364
22,400
2015
22,117
13,359
8,014
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Sales - 2014 and 2015
BnSEK
LTM Q315 39.7
Change order backlog Q4, y-o-y + 0.6
Fx. Translation - / + 0.x
Acquisitions + 0.0
Demand, in-for-out Q415 - 0.x
Full year 2015 appr 39.4*
*) SME.Direkt, concensus estimate as per November 12, 2015
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BnSEK
Full year 2015 appr 39.4*
Change in order backlog y-o-y -
Fx. Translation + 0.1
Acquisitions during 2015 + 0.0
Subtotal: 39.5
Price + / - ?
Demand + / - ?
Further acquisitions + ?
Full year 2016: ?
Sales - 2015 and 2016
*) SME.Direkt, concensus estimate as per November 12, 2015
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Cash generation - Over the last decade +
2002 2004 2006
Free cash-flow’
SEK million
2008 2010
Percent of sales
Free cash-flow*, % of sales
2012 2014
*) Free cash-flow defined as; cash-flow before acquisitions, divestments and dividends
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