Financial Markets Piero Overmars, SEVP Global Head of Financial Markets BU 11 December, 2003.
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Transcript of Financial Markets Piero Overmars, SEVP Global Head of Financial Markets BU 11 December, 2003.
Financial MarketsPiero Overmars, SEVPGlobal Head of Financial Markets BU
11 December, 2003
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Agenda for today
Financial Markets
(Piero Overmars)
Credit Markets
(Niall Cameron)
Rates Markets
(Graham Bird)
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When we formed Financial Markets in ‘02 we aimed to achieve four goals:
Change origination behaviour
Enhance our offer
Provide better integrated capital raising, capital management and risk advisory service to our clients
More selectively deploy capital to profitable Priority and Key clients
Optimise portfolio through capital market instruments
Leverage our distribution capabilities
Build on our penetration in Europe and Asia Narrow our focus on top 250 investors
Improve our efficiency
Centralise infrastructure to benefit from economies of scale
Hub & spoke front office model
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We are differentiating our offer and using our capital more effectively . . .
Provide better integrated capital raising, capital management and risk advisory service to our clients
Financial Markets Advisory (FMA) Whole business securitisation US Asset securitisation and CMBS European CMBS US Domestic and Sterling DCM New, improved, client-facing FX
platform Commodity and Hybrid Derivatives
Enhance our offerMore selectively deploy capital to Priority and Key clients, and optimise portfolio through the cycle
Change origination behaviour
Portfolio approach to manage credit risk through the cycle
Rigorous implementation of hurdle rate for accepting loans into the portfolio
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
J F M A M J J A S OAll transactions Hurdle rate
Newly originated transactions: credit RAROC
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We are more important to our best clients and have a leaner operation
Build on our penetration in Europe and Asia and narrow our focus on top 250 investors
Leverage our distribution
Compared to YTD ‘02 client revenues from: Europe and Asia increased 19% and
21% respectively Interest and FX derivatives up 16% and
85% respectively e-clients up 53%, e-transactions up
80%; now 15% of total transactions are e- trades, up 40%
Centralise infrastructure to benefit from economies of scale and ‘Hub & spoke’ front office model
Improve our efficiency
Centralised Back Offices for
– Interest Rate and FX Derivatives
– Money Markets Improved front office operating model:
– Asset Securitisation
– Structured Trade Finance
– Credit Portfolio Management
– Funding and Liquidity Management
– Rates market making
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Financial Market clients are serviced by four production channels . . .
Research
Credit PortolioManagement
Portolio Strategy
Portfolio Execution
Portfolio ManagementGroup (PMG)
Primary Markets
Secondary Markets
Securitisation
Project Finance
Loan Markets
Structured Capital
Credit Markets
Market Making
StructuredProducts
Banking Books
Rates Markets
Spot FX
FX Options
Foreign Exchange
Financial Markets
Focus of discussion today
Financial Markets Advisory (FMA)
Distribution
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As at end September 2003
Western Europe56%
CEMA6%
Asia12%
LatAm6%
USA16%
Australia4%
. . . resulting in a diversified and client-driven earnings base for FM
YTD September 2003
% Revenue composition
YTD September 2003
% Revenue breakdown by region
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2002
Nine Months YTD
% change
Revs (EURm)
Prov (EURm)
– RWAs (EURb)
– Staff
2,207
575
69
3,142
(5)
(56)
(28)
(1)
2003
2,087
253
50
3,123
2003 has seen improved net profit contribution with stable revenues
FM’s core business has annual
revenues of over EUR 2.8 bn (flat
year-on-year)
Net Profit has increased in ‘03 due
to lower costs and provisions
Revenues per unit of RWA
increased by > 30% since ‘02
Slight reduction in headcount
masks a large upgrading exercise
and also resourcing for new
initiatives
Financial Markets (FM)
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2003 results show q-o-q increase in earnings
Geopolitical events and SARS affected
client flows in Q1 and trading results
were disappointing
Client revenues recovered but
MM/Repo results slowed down in H1
Large ticket client deals and good
trading sheltered Q3 revenues from
seasonal effects and the full-extent of
US Treasury and MBS market turmoil
Positive trends of YTD 03 expected to
continue in Q4
Revenues (EUR mln)
Financial Markets
2003 quarterly revenues
653
709724
600
650
700
750
800
Q1 Q2 Q3
2003
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Our loan portfolio has been shrunk and improved in credit quality
Loan portfolio remains strongly Investment Grade
Annualised provisioning as % of WCS RWAs declined from 87 bps in 2002 to 57 bps in September 2003 YTD
Portfolio size Loan Book (RWA) reduced by 47% in 2 years and made efficient
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
RWA
Dec-0
1
RWA
Mar
-02
RWA
Jun-
02
RWA
Sep-0
2
RWA
Dec-0
2
RWA
Mar
-03
RWA
Jun-
03
RWA
Sep-0
3
RWA (€ mln)
80% 80% 81%
20.1% 20.3% 18.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sep. 02 Dec. 02 Sep. 03
UCR 1, 2, 3 UCR >=4
Loan portfolio RWA trend
Loan portfolio asset quality
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26%
61%
13%
32%
10%
58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Top 5 6 to 10 11 to 20
AA Rank
% o
f L
ea
gu
e T
ab
les 3Q 2002
3Q 2003
Competitively, we have bolstered our position in our chosen markets in ‘03
1. Based on discussions with MOW. Sources: Greenwich, IFR, Euromoney, Project Finance Magazine, Risk Magazine, Dealogic - Loanware, Marakon analysis
2003Nov.
2002full
year All International Bonds 11 11
All Euro-denominated bonds 4 6
All Euro-denominated ABS/MBS 1 1
Global Syndicated Loans: MLA 7 8
Western Europe LBOMandated Arranger 6 17
All Euro Government Bonds 5 6
Emerging Markets SyndicatedLoans 6 7
FX 6 9
League Table sample size:
105 (3Q 2002)
101 (3Q 2003)
Material increase in Top 5 rankings
since FM was created
Overall league tables Selected positions
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Most Improved Debt House
Euromoney, Awards for Excellence, July 2003
Best Bank - Fixed Income
Treasury Management International Award 2003, November 2003
Project Finance Restructuring Deal of the Year
For PT Paiton Energy - Project Finance magazine, September 2003
Most Improved Bank at Overall Debt Capital Raising in Asia
Euroweek, Asian Capital Markets Poll, February 2003
Currency Derivatives House of the Year Award Risk Magazine, January 2003
Voted #1 for FX by corporates
Voted #3 by institutions
FX Week, End-user surveys, November 2003
# 1 in Euro interest swaps with Corporates
# 2 in Euro interest swaps with Financial Institutions
Risk Magazine, End-user surveys, June 2003
“Our annual survey is based on the opinions of the
world’s top 4,000 multinational
corporations and is supported by 24 national treasury associations. In a highly competitive market, this new award shows that
ABN AMRO is getting things right.”
Our clients and peers have recognised our gains - 2003 Awards
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Outlook for 2004
Industry outlook
Market share consolidation across
many product areas to Top 5, possibly
Top 10, players
We expect main areas of growth will
continue to be in the structured finance
domain
Depth and number of top tier client
relationship crucial to success
Business outlook
We are optimistic about the business
growth in the medium term:
– US GDP growth will continue, but at
a reduced rate from Q3; European
markets slowly growing and
increasing trade
– Interest rates to rise in US and UK
but remain stable in Eurozone in
2004
– Private financing increasingly
replacing Governmental expenditure
– Corporate bond issuance expected
to shrink by 25-30%
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Financial Market Plans for 2004
1) Enhancing our mature, volume-driven businesses:
Protect Profitable Platforms
- Foreign Exchange
- Money Markets/Repos
- Vanilla Interest Rate Derivatives
- Asset Securitisation
Selectively upgrade strategic relationship products
- Fixed Income (Primary & Secondary)
- Government Bond Trading
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Enhancing our mature businesses
2) Building out material new growth ‘spikes’:
Expand into high growth product categories and/or high potential client segments/geographies, through selective investments Opportunities in Derivatives
– high value-added, tailored products
– distribute to our numerous and deep relationships
Structured Credit businesses
– European Infrastructure Capital
– European High Yield
Expand Participation in Retail Segment
– service ABN AMRO’s extensive middle-market financial institutions and
private client customer base
– differentiated product offering
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Summary
Aims set out for 2003 have been achieved
Improved the economics of the business
Improved and improving competitive position
Optimistic outlook for business and industry in 2004
Will be investing to grow current profitable positions and to create
future franchises