Financial Analisys.xls

8/11/2019 Financial Analisys.xls

1/12

Financing Analisys

PLTM Pugeran Project 2 x 3,98 MWKendal

Developer

PT. Pembangkit Listrik Tirta Anugrah


2/12

COMPANY INFORMATION

.

.


3/12

Site Conditions

Project InformationProject name PugeranProject IDProject location

Sub-district PugeranCity KendalProvince Jawa Tengah

Latitude of project location NLongitude of project location ERain Intensity mm/year 4500River Basin Area km2 145

9.413671875

Site CharacteristicsGross head m 100Forbay Elevation m 657Normal tailwater Elevation m 557Maximum flood tailwater elevation m 562Residual flow m/sFirm flow m/s 9.0Channel Lenght m 2900

Penstock Diameter m 2Penstock Lenght m 320Road construction/Access Road m 1000Design Number of Turbine Turbine 2

Financial Assumptions

Water retribution Rp/KWhAverage Cost of Electricity (Rp/kWh) Rp 656.00Nominal Electricity Escalation Rate %/Year 0%Infation Rate % 6%Discount Rate % 12.5%Interest Rate % 11Debt Term Year 7Debt Ratio % 70Project life Year 15Depreciation Term Year 20Exchange Rate Rp/USD 8700Salvage Value 0.1Tax % 25Hydro plant capacity factor 55Land Acquisition m2 5000 9.4Land Acquisition Price Rp/m2(1000) 20

PLTM Pugeran Project

KendalJawa Tengah

2 x 3,98 MW

Project Location


4/12

System Characteristics

El. 657

1. Open Channel2. Forebay3. Penstock 4. Power House5. Turbine6. Tailrace

El. 557

Grid type -Design flow m/s 9.413671875Number of turbines turbine 2Turbine peak efficiency % 0.86Turbine efficiency at design flow % 0.83Maximum hydraulic losses % 6Generator efficiency % 95Transformer losses %Parasitic electricity losses %Annual downtime losses % 80

1

Level I

Level II

2

3

45

6

H Friction

H Pressure

Tank

Turbine


5/12

Small Hydro Turbine Characteristics

Turbine type Horizontal axis Francis turbine Horizontal axis, 2 jet, 1 runner Pelton impulse turbineNumber of turbines turbine 2 2Flow Rate Per Unit m3/s/Unit 4.706835938 4.706835938Energy Delivery per unit MW/Unit 3.9735 3.614Total Hydro plant capacity MW 7.947 7.228Rated head m 97.46 89.96Peak eff. (Francis) Or Peak eff. Q/jet (Pelton) m3/s 4.20 1.77Design flow m/s 9.413671875 9.413671875Turbine efficiency curve data source - Standard StandardHydro turbine manufacturer MW Voith Siemens Voith SiemensGenerator Rate for 2 Turbine MW 3.974 3.614Turbine manufacture/design coefficient - 4.5 4.5Efficiency adjustment % 0% 0.00Turbine peak efficiency % 93.21 26 0.91Turbine efficiency at design flow % 85.8% 0.86Speed rpm 750 187.50Calculated number of runner blades 13 2.53Calculated runner throat diameter (d) meter 0.84Calculated minimum shaft centerline elevation, m = 564.53Jet diameter (m) = 0.27Penstock Diameter meter 2 2.00Wall Tickness (mm) 19 19Pipe Material 2 2.00Penstock lenght meter 320 320.00Velocity in Penstock 2.996 3.00

Specific Roughness () 0.00000150 0.00Reynold number 5992929.646 5992929.65Darcy Friction Factor 0.018 0.02

Loss Coefficient, Zeta Value of Valve 0.13 0.13Total friction Loss (Hfriction) 2.545 2.55

Max Surge Pressure when turbine off/valve close at ToP = difference in pressure Bar 31.26 @ closing time 0 secSurge Pressure In Systems when Suddenly close Bar 41.00 @ closing time 0 secTime of pressure surge (critical time) in sec Sec 0.70 @ closing time 0 secValve Closing time to avoid water hammer sec 2.30 Max. pressure in System will be 10,3 Bar Min Pressure will be10,1 bar


6/12

Horizontal axis Francis turbine Horizontal axis , 2 jet , 1 runner Pelton impulse turbine Turbine Efficiency Curve Data Turbine Efficiency Curve Data

Flow Turbine Combined Flow Turbine Combinedefficiency running turbine efficiency running turbine

(%) # efficiency (%) # efficiency

0% 0.00 0.00 0% 0.00 0.005% 1.00 0.37 5% 1.00 0.86 10% 1.00 0.56 10% 1.00 0.86 15% 1.00 0.70 15% 1.00 0.86

Turbine Type Sugestion Horizontal axis Francis turbine 20% 1.00 0.75 20% 1.00 0.87 Comment 25% 1.00 0.79 25% 1.00 0.87

30% 1.00 0.82 30% 1.00 0.87 35% 1.00 0.84 35% 1.00 0.86 40% 1.00 0.86 40% 1.00 0.86 45% 1.00 0.87 45% 1.00 0.86 50% 1.00 0.88 50% 1.00 0.86

55% 2.00 0.88 55% 2.00 0.86 60% 2.00 0.88 60% 2.00 0.86

Total Hydro plant capacity MW 7.947 65% 2.00 0.89 65% 2.00 0.86 Energy Equipment Set Rp (1.000,-) 16,857,981 70% 2.00 0.89 70% 2.00 0.86 Hydro plant capacity kW 7946.61 75% 2.00 0.89 75% 2.00 0.86

MW 7.947 80% 2.00 0.88 80% 2.00 0.86 hydro plant firm capacity kW 85% 2.00 0.88 85% 2.00 0.86 Available flow adjustment factor - 0 90% 2.00 0.88 90% 2.00 0.86 Small hydro plant capacity factor % 55.00 95% 2.00 0.87 95% 2.00 0.86 Annual energy delivered MWh 37,762.30 100% 2.00 0.86 100% 2.00 0.86

Combination of capacity, head and flow issuitable for this type of turbine. otherwiseHorizontal axis, 2 jet, 1 runner impulse turbineCombination of capacity, head and flow NOTsuitable for this type of turbine.

0.00

0.50

1.00

0 %

1 5 %

3 0 %

4 5 %

6 0 %

7 5 %

9 0 %

Combined turbineefficiency

0.00

0.50

1.00

0 %

1 5 %

3 0 %

4 5 %

6 0 %

7 5 %

9 0 %

Combined turbineefficiency

0.000.100.200.30

0.400.500.600.700.800.901.00

Efficiency Comparison

Horizontal axis Francis turbine

Horizontal axis, 2 jet, 1 runner Pelton impulse turbine


7/12

Initial costs (credits) Unit Quantity Unit cost (Rp) Amount (Rp) Costs Companent Ratio

Rp1,000 Rp. 1000Feasibility study

Site investigation p-d 30 1,000 30,000 0.07% 3%Resource assessment project 1 10,000 10,000 0.02% 1%Environmental assessment p-d 30 1,200 36,000 0.08% 4%Preliminary design p-d 30 1,200 36,000 0.08% 4%Detailed cost estimate p-d 15 1,200 18,000 0.04% 2%GHG baseline study & MP project 1 1,200 1,200 0.00% 0%Report preparation p-d 1 25,000 25,000 0.06% 3%Project management M 12 60,000 720,000 1.67% 77%Travel & accommodation p-trip 60 1,000 60,000 0.14% 6%

Sub-total: 936,200

Development - 0.00%Contract negotiations p-d 1 50,000 50,000 0.12% 4%Permits & approvals p-d 1 15,000 15,000 0.03% 1%Site survey & land rights p-d 1 160,000 160,000 0.37% 14%GHG validation & registrati project 1 250,000 250,000 0.58% 22%

Project financing p-d 1 500,000 500,000 1.16% 44%Legal & accounting p-d 1 75,000 75,000 0.17% 7%Project management p-d 1 25,000 25,000 0.06% 2%Travel & accommodation p-trip 50 1,000 50,000 0.12% 4%

Sub-total: 1,125,000

Engineering - 0.00%Site & building design p-d 60 1,000 60,000 0.14% 7%Mechanical design p-d 60 1,000 60,000 0.14% 7%

Electrical design p-d 60 1,000 60,000 0.14% 7%Civil design p-d 60 1,000 60,000 0.14% 7%Tenders & contracting p-d 60 250 15,000 0.03% 2%Construction supervision p-d 360 1,750 630,000 1.46% 71%

Sub-total: 885,000 0.00%

Power system - 0.00%Hydro turbine kW 7.95 16,857,981 16,857,981 39.02% 94%Transmission line km 200 5,000 1,000,000 2.31% 6%

Substation project 1 - - 0.00% 0%Energy efficiency measures project 1 - - 0.00% 0%

Sub-total: 17,857,981 0.00%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Site investigationEnvironmental assessment

Detailed cost estimateReport preparation

Travel & accommodation

Feasibility study

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Contract negotiations

Site survey & land rights

Project financing

Project management

Development

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Site & building design

Civil design

Engineering

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Hydro turbine

Power system


8/12

Balance of system & miscellaneous - 0.00%Delivery equipment project 1 1,300,000 1,300,000 3.01% 6%Road construction km 1,000 3,000 3,000,000 Preparation equipment project 1 - - 0.00% 0%Storage equipment project 1 - - 0.00% 0%Distribution equipment project 1 - - 0.00% 0%Clearing m2 5,000.0 12 60,000 0.14% 0%Earth excavation m3 600.0 20 12,000 0.03% 0%Rock excavation m3 - - 0.00% 0%Concrete dam unit 1 900,000 900,000 2.08% 4%Earthfill dam m3 500 18 9,000 0.02% 0%Dewatering - 0.00% 0%Spillway unit 1 200,000 200,000 0.46% 1%Canal m' 2,900 1,500 4,350,000 10.07% 20%Intake m3 - - 0.00% 0%Tunnel m' - - 0.00% 0%Penstock kg 296,884.39 25 7,422,110 17.18% 35%Powerhouse civil m2 1,000 3,000 3,000,000 6.94% 14%Fishway m3 - - 0.00% 0%Building & yard constructio m2 200 3,000 600,000 1.39% 3%

Spare parts % 3.0% - - 0.00% 0%Transportation project 1 300,000 300,000 0.69% 1%Land Acquisition m2 5,000 20 100,000 0.23% 0%

Sub-total: 21,253,110 0.00%

Miscellaneous 0.00%Training & commissio p-d 5 30,000 150,000 0.35% 13%Contingencies % 2.3% 1,000,000 1,000,000 2.31% 87%

Sub-total: 1,150,000 93.06%

Total initial costs 43,207,291

os ummary

Feasibility study 3.0% 2.17% 936,200 Development 5.5% 2.60% 1,125,000 Engineering 2.3% 2.05% 885,000 Power system 19.8% 41.33% 17,857,981 Balance of system & mis 58.4% 49.19% 21,253,110 Miscellaneous 11.0% 2.66% 1,150,000

Total Inital Costs 43,207,291 Cost Per MW 5,437,196

2.17% 2.60% 2.05%

41.33% 49.19%

2.66%

Feasibility study Development Engineering Power system Balance of system& miscellaneous

Miscellaneous

Cost Summary

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Delivery equipmentRoad construction

Preparation equipmentStorage equipment

Distribution equipmentClearing

Earth excavationRock excavation

Concrete damEarthfill dam

DewateringSpillway

Canal

IntakeTunnel

PenstockPowerhouse civil

FishwayBuilding & yard construction

Spare partsTransportation

Balance of system & miscellaneous

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Training & commissioning

Miscellaneous


9/12

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

S i t e i n v e s t i g a t i o n

R e s o u r c e a s s e s s m e n t

E n v i r o n m e n t a

l a s s e s s m e n t

P r e l i m i n a r y d e s i g n

D e t a i

l e d c o s t e s t i m a t e

G H G

b a s e l i n e s t u

d y & M P

R e p o r t p r e p a r a t i o n

P r o j e c t m a n a g e m e n t

T r a v e l & a c c o m m o d a t i o n

C o n t r a c t n e g o t i a t i o n s

P e r m i t s & a p p r o v a

l s

S i t e s u r v e y &

l a n d r i g h t s

G H G v a

l i d a t i o n & r e g i s t r a t i o n

P r o j e c t

f i n a n c i n g

L e g a

l & a c c o u n t i n g

P r o j e c t m a n a g e m e n t

T r a v e l & a c c o m m o d a t i o n

S i t e &

b u i l d i n g d e s i g n

M e c

h a n i c a l d e s i g n

E l e c t r i c a l d e s i g n

C i v i l d e s i g n

T e n

d e r s & c o n t r a c t i n g

C o n s t r u c t i o n s u p e r v i s i o n

S u b

- t o t a

l :

H y d r o t u r b i n e

T r a n s m i s s i o n

l i n e

S u b s t a t i o n

E n e r g y e f

f i c i e n c y m e a s u r e s

D e l i v e r y e q u i p m e n t

R o a d c o n s t r u c t i o n

P r e p a r a t i o n e q u i p m e n t

S t o r a g e e q u i p m e n t

D i s t r i b u t i o n e q u i p m e n t

C l e a r i n g

E a r t

h e x c a v a t i o n

R o c k e x c a v a t i o n

C o n c r e t e

d a m

E a r t

h f i l l d a m

D e w a t e r i n g

S p i l l w a y

C a n a l

I n t a

k e

T u n n e l

P e n s t o c k

P o w e r

h o u s e c i v i

l

F i s h w a y

B u i l d i n g & y a r d c o n s t r u c t i o n

S p a r e

p a r t s

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n

L a n

d A c q u i s i t i o n

S u b

- t o t a

l :

T r a i n i n g & c o m m i s s i o n i n g

C o n t i n g e n c i e s

A x i s T i t

l e

Axis Title

Initial costs (credits)


10/12

Estimated Project Cash Flows

Average Cost of Electricity (Rp/kWh) Rp/Kwh 656.0 Initial costs Rp 43,207,291 RE delivered MWh 7.95 Debt interest rate % 11%

Debt term Year 7.0 Annual energy delivered MWh 37,762 Term Depreciation Year 20.0 Debt ratio % 0.7 Salvage Value 0.10

Rp 30,245,103 Tax % 25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Cash Out

Capital CostsFeasibility study 936,200 Development 1,125,000 Engineering 885,000 Power system 17,857,981 Balance of system & mi 21,153,110 Miscellaneous - 1,150,000

Total Capital Costs 41,957,291 1,150,000 - - - - - - - - Operating Costs

Water retribution - - - - - - - - Fuel Transportation 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625

Total Operating Costs - - 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 1,625 Plant Operating Costs

Wages & Benefits 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 Maintenance 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000

Total Plant Operating Cos - 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 1,260,000 Debt Service

Interest 4,752,802 4,073,830 3,394,859 2,715,887 2,036,915 1,357,943 678,972 Principal Repayment 6,172,470 6,172,470 6,172,470 6,172,470 6,172,470 6,172,470 6,172,470

Total Debt Service - 6,172,470 10,925,272 10,246,300 9,567,329 8,888,357 8,209,385 7,530,414 678,972 - Depreciation 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555 1,950,555

Total Cash Out 41,957,291 10,473,025 14,077,452 13,458,480 12,779,508 12,100,536 11,421,565 10,742,593 3,891,151 3,212,180

Cash InRevenueFirm Energy Revenue 17,340,449 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 2 Other RevenueTotal Revenue - 17,340,449 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 2

Total Cast In - 17,340,449 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 24,772,070 2

Net Before Tax Cash Flow (41,957,291) 6,867,425 10,694,619 11,313,590 11,992,562 12,671,534 13,350,505 14,029,477 20,880,919 21,559,891 2

Tax (Pajak Penghasilan ) - 1,716,856 2,673,655 2,828,398 2,998,141 3,167,883 3,337,626 3,507,369 5,220,230 5,389,973

Net After Tax Cash Flow (41,957,291) 5,150,568 8,020,964 8,485,193 8,994,422 9,503,650 10,012,879 10,522,108 15,660,689 16,169,918 1 (41,957,291) (36,806,722) (28,785,758) (20,300,566) (11,306,144) (1,802,494) 8,210,385 18,732,493 34,393,182 50,563,100 6

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.18 - - -


11/12

Internal Rate Return (IRR) = 18,03 Initial costs = Rp 43207300

Financial FeasibilityInitial costs (credits) 43,207,291 Hydraulic losses (Design) 2.55% 2% to 7%RE delivered MW 7.95 Generator efficiency % 95 93% to 97%Annual energy delivered MWh 37,762.30 Transformer losses % 1% to 2%Water retribution Rp/KWh 0.00 Parasitic electricity losses % 1% to 3%Average Cost of Electricity (Rp/kWh) Rp/KWh 656.00 Annual downtime losses % 40% to 90%Nominal Electricity Escalation Rate % 0.00 Hydro plant capacity factor % 55.00 2% to 7%Infation Rate % 6%Discount Rate % 12.5%Debt Term Year 7.00Payback Period Year 5.18Year To Positive Cash Flow Year to 6.00Initial Cost to Energy Delivery Ratio Rp/MW 5,437,196 Operating Cost Rp/kW 0.33 Exchange Rate Rp/1USD 8,700.00 Debt interest rate 11%Net Present Value (NPV) Rp (1.000,-) 54,001,910 Internal Rate Return (IRR) 18.02%MRR 41,957,291 B/C 2.29

(60,000,000)

(40,000,000)

(20,000,000)

-

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Project Cumulative Cash Flow

Estimated Project Cash Flows


12/12

Risk Analysis for IRR and ROI

Rate -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%Ratio 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%Annual energy delivered to IRR 7.74% 12.17% 18.02% 20.32% 24.12%Initial costs to IRR 24.14% 20.66% 18.02% 15.22% 13.02%Debt interest rate to IRR 18.87% 18.45% 18.02% 17.60% 17.18%

Annual energy delivered to IRR 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%Annual energy delivered -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR 7.74% 12.17% 18.02% 20.32% 24.12%

Initial costs to IRR 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%Initial costs -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR 24.14% 20.66% 18.02% 15.22% 13.02%

Debt interest rate to IRR 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%Debt interest rate -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR 18.87% 18.45% 18.02% 17.60% 17.18%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Risk Analysis for IRR and ROI

Annual energy delivered to IRR Initial costs to IRR Debt interest rate to IRR

Financial Analisys.xls

Documents

Transcript of Financial Analisys.xls