FINAL PROJECTCOMM 303-50BILL BRANTLEY

The Landscape of 2021 A.D.

The Future of Technology

INTRODUCTION TO COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES

By:

Svetlana Dimitrova Carissa Boice

Ricky PriceKristy WilkersonAshley WilliamsHolly Thomas

Asia Mesnae Taylor

WHAT WILL THE COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE LOOK LIKE IN 2021 A.D?

Communication technology has grown so much over the past 10 years and it will continue to grow. By 2021 A.D. there will be a lot more things that will be changed. Perhaps everyone will be online all the time, and will know what a computer is and how to use it. There will be no more boxed software, 3-D TV will become normal for everyone. There will be no more filing cabinets, because everything will be computerized. Tablets may become more popular than computers and laptops…

The communication landscape will become more portable and everything will be connected to the internet. The development of smart phones and tablets has allowed individuals to take their computers wherever they go. They provide numerous degrees of entertainment and social networking. If an individual wants to read a book, they can use their portable device. If they want to watch a YouTube video, they can use their portable device. If they want to update their Twitter, they can use their portable device. Wi-Fi and cellular internet have made accessing the entertainment more available. There are few places in the United States where an individual does not have access to the internet or cell phone service. By 2021 A.D. most media technologies will begin to look the same. They will all have the feel of the internet, no matter where we use them. They will be more interactive and just about every piece of technology will have a way to access the internet.

Schools will get rid of text books all together and perhaps E-books will be the only means of reading… these have become more and more popular. Instead of carrying a book for each class, students could carry a Nook or e-reader and have a whole library at their fingertips

Imagine a world of computers… a day made of glass…

The Umbrella Perspective“The use of an “umbrella” to illustrate these five factors is the

result of the manner in which they were drawn on a chalkboard during a lecture in 1988. The arrangement of the five attributes

resembled an umbrella and the name stuck” (Grant & Meadows)

In order to understand technology first you will need to understand the competing and complementary technologies

and the larger social environment and within these technology exists.

The umbrella perspective main focus is to describe the adaption of new technologies into society. The umbrella perspective will

also help us understand communication technology.

The following levels must be examined to understand a communication technology:

• Hardware-which is the communication technology itself• Software-is the messages or content of the communication technology

• Organizational Infrastructure-this is the involvement in the production/distribution

• Social System-the political, economic and media systems• Individual Users-consists of actual and potential

And then there are factors that need to be considered within the umbrella perspective:

• Enabling-makes an application of communication technology possible• Limiting-limits an application or creates a barrier

• Motivating-reasons or incentives for adopting (business and user needs)• Inhibiting-disincentives for adopting (business and user needs)

These factors can be identified in all of the above levels except for the hardware. Hardware can only be identified within the limiting and enabling factors and by itself hardware does not provide motivation. Motivation has to come from the

software or any of the other levels.

Rogers Diffusion of Innovation

Developed in in mid 1900's by Everett M.Rogers, the theory describes diffusion as the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system.

Four Elements of Influence

Rogers, a professor of rural sociology, published a book titled Diffusion of Innovations in 1962. The book included four main elements that influence the spread of a new idea.

   

2. Communication Channels 3. Time 4. Social System

1. The Innovation

Decision Innovation Process

Individuals progress through five stages as members of a social system. 1. Knowledge 2. Persuasion3. Decision (Can either Reject or Accept It)4. Implementation5. Confirmation By this, if the information is adopted, it spreads through various communication channels.

Moore's Innovation Adoption Rates The rate of adoption is defined as the relative speed with which members

of a social system adopt an innovation. The rates are determined by an individual's adopter category such as:

Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards

1st to adopt innovation, willing to take risks, youngest in age, have great financial lucidity. 2nd fastest to adopt, high degree of opinion leadership, high social status, advance education Adopt after varying degree of time. Adopt after avg. member of society, Very skeptical, Below average social status. Last to adopt. No opinion leadership, lowest financial and social status.

Rogers Five FactorsIntrinsic Characteristics of Innovation that Influence an Individual's Decision to Adopt

or Reject an Innovation

     FACTOR 1. Relative advantage 2. Compatibility 3. Complexity or Simplicity 4. Trialability 5. Observability

         DEFINITON • How improved an innovation is

over the previous generation• The level of compatibility that

an innovation has to be assimilated

• If its too difficult an indiv. will not likely adopt it

• How easily an innov. may be experimented with as it is being adopted.

• Extent that an innov. is visible to others.

Social Systems

During communication, the idea is rarely evaluated from a scientific standpoint; rather, subjective perceptions of the innovation influence diffusion. Finally, Social Systems determine four things: 1. Norms of Diffusion 2. Roles of Opinion Leaders and Change Agents 3. Types of Innovation Decisions 4. Innovation consequences

Critical Mass Theory • The Critical Mass theory is the stage of the diffusion process that an

interactive medium has to reach in order for the adoption to take off. Once it has reached the “tipping point” the product explodes. People get to know about it and hear the word of mouth and everyone wants to try it or get one.

• In the future, critical mass theory will become easier to adapt to, and once something new comes out people won’t have to wait -they will just go get it. In the future, the critical mass won’t take as long to reach the diffusion process, and more likely it will explode a lot faster than before.

• A good example of critical mass would be the IPAD. Now days it feels like everyone has one. It is kind of pointless and there really is no point in it or having one if you already have an IPhone and/or a computer. However once it reached the diffusion process everyone got one, but later on most people rarely even used it.

• In the future, critical mass theory will become more dominate and make new products more widespread, because of the way technology is growing.

Uses and Gratifications Theory• This theory focuses on what users want out of their technology. It states that

they will seek technologies that satisfy their needs. This theory deals with why people choose certain media technologies over others. The textbook Communication Technology Update and Fundamentals says that “people watch television for information, relaxation, to pass time, by habit, excitement, and for social utility (Rubin, 2002.)” This theory can also be used to compare different media technology based on why people use them.

• How does Uses and Gratifications Theory support this vision? • Uses and Gratifications Theory states that people use certain technologies

over others to fulfill their needs. Portable devices are able to fulfill nearly every need a person has in a communication technology. This is mostly due to the internet and the variety of content available online. Thus nearly every technology will have a way to connect to the internet in order to satisfy the ever growing desire of consumers to stay constantly connected to others.

Media System Dependency Theory

• The Media System Dependency Theory is a theory that tries to explain the role of media in a society. Television is a media that is dependent on. We use television to obtain information from around, watch television shows, and movies. In 2021, television technology will be so realistic that you won’t know its television. We will continue to depend on television to keep us informed on new technologies. Commercials will continue to advertise new technology as it becomes available. Another dependency would be cell phones. People depend on cell phones to obtain information whether it is phone call, text, internet or news.

Media System

•http://mavaric.com/what-we-do-for-you/social-media/•http://groups.drupal.org/node/23711

Social Learning Theory/Social Cognitive Theory

• People learn by watching others.• Behavior is imitated.• Reinforcement and punishment plays role.• Self-regulation is an important factor – learners believe

they can perform the behavior.• Useful framework for examining effects and

communication media.• Functional and dysfunctional behavior.• Adoption of new technologies.

• http://motivation-project.wikispaces.com/Socio-cognitive+Theories+of+Motivation

The Theory of the Long Tail • The Theory of the Long Tail is a theory that explains how our culture and society

shifts from mass markets to narrow interests. • People are now able to enjoy themselves based off their interests versus the

interest of programming which is conducted by the thought of what they think the people like instead of what the people actually want.

• Infinite Shelf space effect is a new distribution mechanism for P2P networks, digital

downloading, and streaming which have taken the place of retail and broadcast media.

• The long tail seems as if niches are fragments of mass media, which in turn will be

co-categorized long tails of the masses. • We have access to more media now that there are niches but we are paying less for

the privilege versus having “hits” where consumptions were not all that accessible or easy to find or free.

The red part is the hits (market domination).Millions of niches from virtual stock is the Long Tail = infinite choices.Technology has made the long tail theory effective because consumers are able to easily find niche products.The standard demand curve can apply to all industries.

• Long Tail is the driving force for expansion in media and multimedia so businesses have to catch up. = Yellow Curve = non-hits, or niches (new growth present & future)

• Vertical axis is sales and the horizontal axis is products.

The Principle of Relative Constancy The Principle of Relative Constancy theory is explained as a theory that

explains what happens to technologies as newer ones become available. A good example is a VCR. All movies were on VHS tapes and played in VCR’s. Over time, VHS’s turned into DVD’s and DVD’s into Blue Ray. Now we continue on to Netflix. I can’t imagine what else could become of videos. VHS’s have faded out, DVD’s not so much. I do believe the technologies such as E-books will fade textbooks out. There will not be a such thing as regular cell phones. All cell phones will be smart phones with Internet, text messaging, mobile television and satellite radio equipped. Eventually cell phones will combine all of our accessories together. We will no longer need portable DVD players, I-pods, or laptops.

Communication Technologies

The main three communication technologies are cell phones, Facebook, and computers. Cell phones are big part of

communication people have their email on their phones, you can text message or talk any time. Also on all the smart

phones you can surf the web or play games, etc it is basically a computer in your pocket, however there used to be no cell phones, but today we all act like we could not live without

them. Facebook has become a really big social networking website

that a lot of people communicate with through inviting people places, or finding old friends, or just to chat and see how someone is doing. Overall Facebook is neat, but it is

very over rated and some people spend way too much time on it.

Computers are also a big part of our everyday lives, people use them for work/email or for school or to communicate

with people that are far away.

The Future…

The Growing Technology• Cars are yet to change in the

future. There could be auto-adjust mirrors, seats and steering wheels based on who enters the car, memorize your seat and make your car the way you want to. Imagine a car with skin that fits your desire, that moves… a car that has motion! It switches automatically, a car that adapts to a specific user’s habits and behaviors. A car with it’s own attitude, thinking flexible, backing flexible…

Gina, the amazing visionary BMW

The Changing World…

References

• http://motivation-project.wikispaces.com/Socio-cognitive+Theories+of+Motivation

• http://www.technobuffalo.com/technobuffalo/opinion/the-future-of-technology/

• http://mavaric.com/what-we-do-for-you/social-media/

• http://groups.drupal.org/node/23711• http://motivation-project.wikispaces.com/Socio-co

gnitive+Theories+of+Motivation

COMM 303-50 Bill BrantleyFinal Project

• Svetlana Dimitrova • Carissa Boice• Ricky Price

• Kristy Wilkerson• Ashley Williams• Holly Thomas

• Asia Mesnae Taylor