Final Foreign Policy Conclusion
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Transcript of Final Foreign Policy Conclusion
8/4/2019 Final Foreign Policy Conclusion
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INTRODUCTION
The simplest definition of foreign policy is that, it is the attempt by a state to maximize its
national interest in the external or international environment. However, this definition suggests
some complexities. The definition assumes a commonly agreed definition of national interest.
National interest, as a concept is derived from a realist perspective which means decisions that
states make to preserve and improve power. It is therefore not true to assume that the definition
of national interest as being commonly agreed.
Secondly, Foreign Policy is an ends and means, a problem of achieving certain national goals
with limited means available. The attempt to attain these goals is largely outside one’s control.
These attempts are made with other states that are seeking the same goals for themselves
sometimes at the expense of the competing state.
One would need to include some measure of cooperation, or at least alliance building or working
together. Of the two basic goals of the state, that is, security and prosperity, security is always
presented as a zero sum game. Prosperity requires states to cooperate with each other.
One may then summarize and state that the foreign policy of a state are the strategies employed
by the state to safeguard its national interests and to achieve its goals in international arena.
Basically a Nation first considers and decides upon various policy options, methods and tactics
based on influenced wants and needs from its domestic environment
Foreign policy analysis
Foreign policy analysis involves the study of how a state makes foreign policy. It also involves
the study of both international and domestic politics. A state may implement foreign policy
through diplomacy, war, trade, intergovernmental organizations and economic sanctions.
Foreign Policy Analysis is the study of the process, effects, causes, or outputs of foreign policy
decision making. Foreign Policy Analysis explains why specific states do specific things at
specific times. Foreign policy analysis is the study of the conduct and practice of relations
between different actors, primarily states, in the international system. Diplomacy, intelligence,
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trade negotiations and cultural exchanges all form part of the substance of Foreign policy
analysis.
At the heart of the field is an investigation into decision making, the individual decision makers,
processes and conditions that affect foreign policy and the outcomes of these decisions. By virtue
of this approach, Foreign policy analysis is necessarily concerned with the boundaries between
the external environment outside of the nation state and the internal or domestic environment,
with its variety of sub-national sources of influence.
The group’s focus is to examine how the state level of analysis affects a country’s formulation
and implementation of its foreign policy. As such, it necessary to give an in-depth definition of
the terms ‘nation’, ‘state’ and ‘nation-state’.
DEFINITION OF NATION STATE
NATION
Nation is a term that is used to describe a group of people who may or may not live in the same
state or country.
Definitions of nation rely on objective or subjective criteria or on some combination of the two.
On the objective criteria of definition of nationality rely on the commonality of a certain trait
among members of a group e.g. characteristics such as shared language, religion, ethnicity
(C9ommon Descent) and culture.
STATE
According to Daniel A Sapp- A state is a geographically bounded entity governed by a central
authority that has the ability to make laws, rules and decisions and to enforce those laws, rules
and decisions within its boundaries.
A state is also a legal entity recognised under international law as the fundamental decision
making unit of the international legal system.
States determine their own policies and establish their own forms of government.
A nation is a grouping of people who view themselves as being linked to one another in some
manner.
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Nationalism refers to the feeling of attachment to one another that members of a nation have and
to the sense of pride that a nation has in itself.
It is a geographically bounded legal entity under a single government the population of which
psychologically considers itself in some way shape or form related
The term nation-state is more recent of the other two ‘nations’ & ‘state’ and it reflect growing
convergence in recent years between the two older terms.
NATION-STATE
Nations and states may seem identical but they are not.
States govern people in a territory with boundaries. They have laws, taxes, officials, currencies,
postal services and (usually) armies.
They wage war, negotiate treaties, put people in prison and regulate life in thousands of ways.
They claim sovereignty within their territory e.g. the Karen claim to be a nation trapped within
the state of Burma/Myanmar.
The Sioux are a nation within the boundaries of the United States-each of these nations has its
own special territory rights, laws and culture but not statehood.
That Arab nation embraces more than a dozen states while the nation of the Kurds takes in large
areas of four states
Some people assume that states are fixed and permanently established across most of the globe
whereas states are in flux(change)
State boundaries are often changed-by war, negotiation, arbitration or even by the sale of
territory for money e.g. Russia sold Alaska to the USA
Nation-state provides identity where identities have been weak.
LEVELS OF ANALYSIS
This is one of the ways of examining state behavior. It can also be said to be a perspective on
international relations based on a similar state of actors and processes that suggests possible
explanations to why a state acts in a particular way .Scholars see several levels of analysis
through which state behavior can be examined.
System level analysis examines state behavior by looking at the international system. It is the
most comprehensive of the levels available, encompassing the totality of interactions which take
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place within the system and its environment. In this level of analysis, the international system is
the cause and state behavior is the effect. Characteristics of the international system cause states
to behave the way they do. Change in the international system will cause change in state
behavior. The key variable in the international system is the power of a state within the system.
Some states are powerful; others are weak. So for example, the cold war had two powerful
states. Therefore the central cause of all state behavior in the cold war was the fact that the US
and USSR were the two powerful states in a bipolar system. Today, there is unipolar system –
one superpower (or hyper power) -- and that defines the behavior of all other states in the system.
(See neo-realism below). So this level of analysis might explain the US intervention in Iraq as a
matter of the US, the one and only powerful state, flexing its muscles to police the world against
states that threaten it. The US wants to preserve its dominance and therefore crushes all
challengers.
Organizational level analysis examines the way in which organizations within a state function
to influence foreign policy behavior. States don’t make decisions. Organizations bargain with
each other to create a foreign policy that is a compromise between competing organizations.
This level of analysis for example, might look at the Iraq war and try to explain it by examining
the interests of the US military, the department of defense, the state department, and central
intelligence agency. How did these organizations create US foreign policy would be the key
question at this level of analysis?
Individual level analysis focuses on people. People make decisions within nation states and
therefore people make foreign policy. Scholars might look at the roles of different leaders. This
level of analysis might explain World War II by examining the role of Hitler. It might look at
the end of the cold war by studying Gorbachev. It might suggest that the economic reforms in
China are a result of the transition from Mao Zedong’s leadership to Deng Xiaoping’s rule. This
level of analysis also includes cognitive theories --theories that explain foreign policy by looking
at the way leaders perceive the world. Larson’s book is an example of this. This is a focus on
perception, misperception, and communication. Individual level analysis might ask questions
such as these: Are there aspects of George W. Bush’s character and belief systems that have
defined the US response to the 9/11 attacks? Would Al Gore or John Kerry have behaved any
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differently in a similar situation? How do Bush and his senior decision makers perceive the
world and their role in it?
Kenneth Waltz's Theory of International Politics, is the most prominent effort to develop a
Rigorous and prudent model of "modern" or “structural" realism, has tended to define the terms
of a vigorous debate during the past two decades. It follows and builds upon another enormously
influential book in which Waltz developed the Rousseau an position that a theory of war must
include the system level (what he called the "third image") and not just first (theories of human
nature) or second (state attributes) images. Why war? Because there is nothing in the system to
prevent it.
State level analysis examines the foreign policy behavior of states in terms of state
characteristics. For example, some scholars say that all democracies behave a certain way; they
don’t fight with other democracies. Some scholars might look at the different behaviors of weak
or strong states; states that live in rough neighborhoods (Germany or France) vs. states that live
in more benign surroundings (the US). Some scholars might say that the foreign policy behavior
of every state is a cultural characteristic, defined by the historical legacy of the state, the
religious or social traditions, or the economic and geographic nature of the state itself (see
constructivism below). State level of analysis might explain the US intervention in Iraq as a
function of the missionary quality of US foreign policy. The US has always had an idealist
streak in its foreign policy (some disagree with this) and sees “bad guys” out there in the
international system. The US is compelled by the nature of its political system and its belief that
someday all states will be like the US. It has a drive to remake the world in its own image. The
job of US foreign policy is not done until all states are democratic and all nations have free
market economies.
The most important actors within the global system continue to be the central governments of
sovereign states.Each central government has relationships with other central governments and
other international actors. These relationships are summarized as that country's foreign policy.
The dominant model of the global system continues to hold the view that the world is composed
of a system of sovereign states. The sum total and the product of all foreign policies would result
in what we call the global system.
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Determinants of States’ Foreign Policies
The foreign policy of a given state depends on its power, its objectives, and its leadership.
Power is an elusive concept but widely used in political science. Power may be defined as the
ability to persuade others to do things that they would not do ordinarily unless pressured to do so.
Within domestic politics, power is usually based on numbers, wealth, and organizational skills.
A small group that is well organized may exercise considerable influence even without large
sums of money. In international politics, power depends on both geopolitical factors and
idiosyncratic factors.
Objectives of Foreign Policy: The objectives of states vary greatly but all states seek to
preserve themselves, maintain their independence and security and pursue their national
interests.
Leadership: Leaders and the elites who support them help to shape the foreign policy of
countries. In making decisions, leaders must take account of two categories of determinants that
impact on their foreign policies.
Influences of Foreign policy.
Global or External Influences
Geopolitics. The geopolitical location of a state is one of the external determinants on its
foreign policy. It matters where on the globe a country is located. It matters whether the country
has natural frontiers: that is whether it is protected by oceans, high mountains, or deserts. It
matters who one's neighbors are and whether a given country is territorially large, populous,
affluent, and well-governed.
Relative Position within the Global system.
Internal or Domestic Influences
Internal or Domestic Determinants on States' Foreign Policies focus attention "on variations
in states' attributes, such as military capabilities, level of economic development, and types of
government.
Military Capabilities. This include the size of military, Equipment, Training, Leadership and
Nuclear or non-nuclear capabilities.
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Economic Capabilities. It includes Traditional, Transitional, and Modern
Societies. Industrialization. Stages of Industrialization: Wood, Coal, Oil, Nuclear, Renewable
Resources. Gross national product, Per Capita GNP, GINI Index, Lorenz Curve of Inequality.
Type of Economy: Free Market Economics, Centrally Planned Economies, Socially Steered
Market Economies (Soziale Markwirtschaft)
Type of Government. Constitutional democracies (presidential systems and parliamentary
systems). Autocratic Systems (authoritarian and totalitarian). Military Dictatorships. Political
Party Systems. Traditional monarchies (Saudi Arabia). Modern theocracies (Iran).
State Power is the power that the government machineries have and it influences the state’s
foreign policy while National Power is the power the other actors in a State have which also
influences Foreign Policy.
Bases of National Power depend on many variables, such as: Location of the state--coastal or
landlocked, Size--large or small territory, Population--large or small, Natural Resources--oil, iron
ore, forests, etc. Technology-developed or under-developed
Type of Government--dictatorship or democracy Type of Economy--market or centrally planned,
Size and Equipment of Military--nuclear or conventional, Belief systems of Country
Idiosyncratic Factors
Leadership, Morale of Military, Degree of Popular Support, Nature of Friends and Allies and
Enemies
To try and figure out why states behave the way they do, then we need to look at theories which
are useful tools that can help us conceptualize the concepts and explain the reasons behind this behaviour.
State Level of Analysis: Theories of Foreign Policy Analysis
i) Realism and Foreign Policy Analysis:
Political realists view the state an appropriate unit of analysis and are seen as pursuing
foreign policy to advance national interest.
According to this view, a state’s capacity or power is central to shaping its foreign policy
strategies.
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The state’s capability enables it to achieve its goals even when they clash with those of
other states.
Goldstein, for instance, observes that a state’s capability to influence another is based on
its possessions.
These include a country’s size, level of income, armed forces and population.
Rothgeb observes that despite a state’s possession of power, this does not in itself always
guarantee that it will prevail in conflicts.
This is based on the fact that power, if taken out of context, only provides generalunderstanding of typical outcomes.
The relative power among states can indeed rise or decline depending on the state’s
ability to use it in order to achieve desired goals. Power is indeed not absolute and must
be analyzed in relation to others.
The realist focus on states as a unit of focus leaves no room for the role of the individuals.
Indeed, states are seen as unitary and individuals are only perceived to work towards
attaining state goals. For realists, the only element that shows prominent impact onforeign policy apart from state capability is the nature of leadership
ii) Liberal Theory:
Liberal warrants one’s attention because it speaks to issues that realism disregard like:
o The impact of domestic politics on state behavior
o The implications of economic interdependence and,
o The role of global norms and institutions in promoting international cooperation
Liberalism emphasize ethical principle over military capabilities
Politics at the global level is more a struggle for consensus and mutual gain rather than
struggle for power and prestige
Liberalism stresses:o The need to substitute attitudes that stress the unity of humankind for those that
stressed parochial national loyalties to independent sovereign states
o The importance of individuals – their essential dignity and fundamental equality
throughout the course of history and the need to place the protection and
promotion of human rights and freedom ahead of national interest and stateautonomy; and
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o The use of power of ideas through education to arouse world public opinion
against warfare
o Liberals also posit that leaders socialized within democratic cultures share a
common outlook. For instance, Woodrow Wilson proclaimed that “democratic
government will make wars less likely”, while later on Franklin Roosevelt later
agreed that, asserting “the continued maintenance and improvement of democracyconstitute the most important guarantee of international peace.”
o Liberals also emphasized on free trade; that commerce can reduce conflict - ideas
of Immanuel Kant, Charles Montesquieu, Adam Smith, David Hume etc;commercial intercourse creates a material incentive to resolve disputes – that wars
reduces profit by interrupting vital economic exchanges.
o In summary:
Core Concern: institutionalized peace; how self serving actors learn to see benefits to coordinating behavior through rules and organizations in order
to achieve collective gains
Key Actors: States, International Institutions, Global Corporations
Central Concepts: Collective Security, International regimes, ComplexInterdependence, Transnational Relations
Approach to Peace: Institutional Reforms through democratization, open
markets, and international law and organization
Global Outlook: Cooperative view of human nature and belief in progress
iii) Groupthink:
Irving L. Janis, “Groupthink Among Policy Makers”, in Nevitt Sanford and
Craig Comstock (eds.), Sanctions for Evil, (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass,1971), pp. 71 – 89
Group think refers to “a mode of thinking that people engage in when they aredeeply involved in a cohesive in-group, when concurrence – seeking becomes so
dominant that it tends to override critical thinking”.
It also refers to a decline in mental efficiency and in the ability to test reality and
to make moral judgments.
Loyalty becomes the highest form of morality for the members. Loyalty requiresthe group members to avoid raising critical issues, to avoid calling a halt to soft-
headed thinking and to avoid questioning weak arguments, even when the
individual member begins to have doubts and to wonder whether they are indeed behaving in a soft-headed manner.
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Most of the main symptoms of group think arise because the members of
decision-making groups avoid being too harsh in their judgments of their leader’sor colleagues ideas. They adopt a soft line of criticism, even in their own thinking.
At their meetings, all important issue with no bickering or conflict to spoil thecozy atmosphere.
According to Janis, group cohesion will only lead to groupthink if one of thefollowing two antecedent conditions is present:
• Structural faults in the organization: insulation of the group, lack of tradition
of impartial leadership, lack of norms requiring methodological procedures,homogeneity of members' social background and ideology.
• Provocative situational context: high stress from external threats, recent
failures, excessive difficulties on the decision-making task, moral dilemmas.
- Social psychologist Clark McCauley's three conditions under which groupthink occurs:
• Directive leadership.
• Homogeneity of members' social background and ideology.
• Isolation of the group from outside sources of information and analysis.There are generally eight symptoms of groupthink which will be outlined below:
1) A shared illusion of invulnerability, which leads to an extraordinary
degree of over-optimism and risk taking
2) Manifestations of directly pressure on individuals who express
disagreement with or doubt about the majority view, making it clear that
their dissent is contrary to the expected behavior of loyal group members
3) Fear of disapproval for deviating from the group consensus, which leads
each member to avoid voicing his doubts when most of the others seem to
agree on a proposed course of action
4) A shared illusion of unanimity within the group concerning all the main judgments expressed by members who speak in favor of the majority view
(partly resulting from the preceding symptom, which contributes to the
false assumption that any individual who remains silent during any part of the discussion is full accord with what others are saying);
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5) Stereotyped views of the enemy leaders as evil, often accompanied by the
assumption that they are too weak or too stupid to deal effectively with
whatever risky attempts are made to outdo them;
6) An unquestioned belief in the inherent morality of the in-group, whichinclines the members to ignore the ethical and moral consequences of their
decisions;
7) The emergence of self-appointed minds guards within the group –
members who take it upon themselves to protect the leader and fellow
members from adverse information that may prevent them from being ableto continue their shared sense of complacency about effectiveness and
morality of past decisions; and
8) Shared efforts to construct rationalizations in order to be able to ignorewarnings and other forms of negative feedback, which, if taken seriously,
would lead the members to reconsider the assumptions they continue to
take for granted each time they recommit themselves to their past policy
decisions.- Groupthink, resulting from the symptoms listed above, results in defective decision
making. That is, consensus-driven decisions are the result of the following practices of
group-thinking.
1. Incomplete survey of alternatives
2. Incomplete survey of objectives
3. Failure to examine risks of preferred choice4. Failure to reevaluate previously rejected alternatives
5. Poor information search6. Selection bias in collecting information
7. Failure to work out contingency plans.
- According to Irving Janis, decision making groups are not necessarily destined to
groupthink. He devised seven ways of preventing groupthink (209-15):
1. Leaders should assign each member the role of “critical evaluator”. Thisallows each member to freely air objections and doubts.
2. Higher-ups should not express an opinion when assigning a task to agroup.
3. The organization should set up several independent groups, working onthe same problem.
4. All effective alternatives should be examined.
5. Each member should discuss the group's ideas with trusted people outsideof the group.
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6. The group should invite outside experts into meetings. Group members
should be allowed to discuss with and question the outside experts.7. At least one group member should be assigned the role of Devil'sadvocate. This should be a different person for each meeting.
Example: The Bay of Pigs Fiasco
Background:
The Bay of Pigs Invasion was an unsuccessful attempt by United States-backed Cuban exiles tooverthrow the government of the Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. Increasing friction between the
U.S. government and Castro's leftist regime led President Dwight D. Eisenhower to break off
diplomatic relations with Cuba in January 1961. Even before that, however, the CentralIntelligence Agency had been training anti-revolutionary Cuban exiles for a possible invasion of
the island. The invasion plan was approved by Eisenhower's successor, John F. Kennedy.
On April 17, 1961 about 1300 exiles, armed with U.S. weapons, landed at the Bahía de Cochinos
(Bay of Pigs) on the southern coast of Cuba.
Hoping to find support from the local population, they intended to cross the island to Havana. Itwas evident from the first hours of fighting, however, that the exiles were likely to lose.
President Kennedy had the option of using the U.S. Air Force against the Cubans but decided
against it. Consequently, the invasion was stopped by Castro's army. By the time the fightingended on April 19, 90 exiles had been killed and the rest had been taken as prisoners.
The failure of the invasion seriously embarrassed the young Kennedy administration. Some
critics blamed Kennedy for not giving it adequate support and others for allowing it to take placeat all. The captured exiles were later ransomed by private groups in the U.S.
Additionally, the invasion made Castro wary of the U.S. He was convinced that the Americanswould try to take over the island again. From the Bay of Pigs on, Castro had an increased fear of
a U.S. incursion on Cuban soil.
Groupthink analysis:
Groupthink appeared in the run-up to the Bay of Pigs invasion in the following manners:
1) The president was so charismatic that his staff wanted to follow him and do what hewanted. Staff members did not feel free to express opinions perceived contrary to whatKennedy wanted. Of course they weren't always sure exactly what he wanted so this at
times turned into supporting guesses about what he wanted.
2) Outside experts were excluded, ostensibly to protect secrecy (which was alreadycompromised). No independent viewpoints sought or allowed. The CIA had intelligence
that contradicted the beliefs on which the decisions were based, but that information
never made it to the decision-makers.
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3) Limited purviews: Schlesinger, for example, felt that as an academic he would be
presumptuous to bring up his concerns.
4) Illusion of invulnerability. The feeling was, “We are smart and we are automaticallymoral. Therefore we will succeed."
5) Illusion of unanimity. "Let's all support the president!" Staff members regarded it as
important to be unanimous, to the point that they suppressed their thoughts to achievethat unanimity.
6) Self-appointed mind-guards. For example, Robert Kennedy told Schlesinger that
everyone should get behind the president.
All that together added up to an apparently unanimous decision to carry out an action that failed
miserably. And contrary to the working assumption, there was no way to blame it on renegade
Cuban exiles; the whole world knew that the U.S. was behind the invasion.
It is impossible to know what would have happened had the administration sought and paid
attention to other information or analysis, but it is highly probable that decision-makers would
have seen the potential problems and called off the invasion.
The Bay of Pigs provided a painful lesson, but thankfully Kennedy and his staff members
learned that lesson well. When the Cuban missile crisis arose, they took deliberate action to
avoid groupthink. Among the ways they did this were:
2. Kennedy deliberately absented himself from many meetings in order to avoid exertingundue influence over discussions.
3. Committee members themselves resisted pressure for unanimity and freely expressed
their disagreements. Rules of protocol were suspended to allow frank and free-wheeling
discussion.4. Group member roles were defined to include being skeptical "generalists," charged with
examining the problem as a whole. Purviews were not limited.
5. Subgroups examined the issues and were later cross-examined by other groups.6. No opinion was regarded as gospel, either a group or an individual opinion. Nor was any
opinion automatically dismissed.
7. Decision makers deliberately sought and considered all pertinent information, eveninformation that went contrary to their preferred course of action.
8. The entire attitude was one of vigilant appraisal rather than groupthink.
The decision was still difficult and the outcome uncertain. In fact, Kennedy said that the people
whose ideas were rejected were the lucky ones because they would be able to say, "I told youso." Thankfully that was not the case; the action taken (a blockade) solved the problem.
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iv) Rational Actor Model:
National Actor: Under the rational actor model, Allison observes that nation is treated as
the primary actor and it examines a set of goals, evaluates them according to their utilityand then picks the one that has the highest pay-off.
This model asserts that policy making is the outcome of a series of games betweenstrategic actors.
Action is chosen in response to the strategic problem which faces the nation. Threats and
opportunities arising in the “international strategic market place” move the nation to act.Static Selection: The sum of activity of representatives of the government relevant to a
strategic problem constitutes what the nation has chosen as its “solution”. Thus the action
is conceived as a steady – state choice among alternative outcomes (rather than, for example, a large number of partial choices in a dynamic stream).
Action as Rational Choice: Action results from national choice among alternatives of a
means calculated to achieve strategic objectives.
(A) National security and national interests are the principal categories inwhich strategic goals are conceived. Nations seek security and a range of
further objectives
(B) Various courses of action relevant to a strategic problem provide thespectrum of alternatives
(C) Endorsement of each alternative course of action will produce a series of
consequences. The relevant consequences constitute advantages anddisadvantages in terms of strategic goals and objectives.
(D) Rational choice is value-maximizing. The rational agent selects the
alternative whose consequences rank the highest in terms of goals andobjectives.
Example of RAM: The Cuban Missile Crisis
Kennedy tried many times to overtly get rid of Castro and/or its government, but failed. Due to
these threats from America, Castro called upon its larger ally, Khrushchev, to help him defend
his small island from Kennedy. Khrushchev responded by sending a “180 SA-2 missiles to Cuba
and a battery of Soviet coastal defense cruise missiles, along with trainers, and the deployment of
a regiment of regular Soviet troops.” This government, alliance, and now a military buildup wasin direct conflict with the goals of Kennedy. With Kennedy’s goals being challenged he had to
respond.
In response to the Soviet missiles in Cuba so close to America, Kennedy had a couple of options.
The first of which is just to do nothing.
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American, up till then, had always been under the target of Soviet missiles. In addition, America
did not want to escalate to nuclear war. America did not want to make an action that would set
off a chain reaction of events that would lead to such a catastrophe.
A second option was to put diplomatic pressures on the Soviets. This option would entail giving
Khrushchev an ultimatum or bringing up the issue to the United Nations or the Organization of
American States to see if those organizations would get involved with getting rid of the missiles.
A third option was to secretly approach Castro to defect against the Soviets. This would make
sure that Castro understood that it was either “split or fall” to the United States. A fourth option
was an invasion of Cuba. This was considered a last resort, but it would make sure that Cubacould not or would not be occupied by Soviets or their missiles.
A fifth option was to conduct an air strike on the missile sites. This option would take out all
defense sites as well as the missiles and the capabilities for the Soviets to launch those missiles.
A sixth and last option was a naval blockade of the coast of Cuba. This option would not allow
any ships to pass, especially Soviet ships, through a blockade, thereby stopping the flow of
supplies for more Soviet troops or missiles into Cuba. Kennedy had many options at his disposal
but to determine which one to choose, RAM must look at the consequences.
v)Bureaucratic Politics (Government Politics Model)
Views the state as a plurality of actorsPolicy outcomes are not based on the single, national interests of the state
Policy results from either compromise, competition or coalitions among government
officialsThese government officials have different perspectives of the same issue
Policy advisors and officials within the executive branch will bargain, log-roll and politicamong each other Many times, the president will choose the policy option that is favored by the coalition
that includes a member that is influential with the President
The proposals put forth by various groups, or coalitions, within the executive branch are based on the interests of the respective bureaucracies that individual or group represents
“Where one sits is where one stands” on a particular issue or conflict
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For example: if a given conflict might require a military campaign, then perhaps key
officials within the Pentagon or Joint Chief of Staff would support military deployment
and the use of force; meanwhile officials within a State Department would favor and callfor a diplomatic settlement
This would cause an internal battle with the government
The president usually decides what policy to go with on the strength of coalition buildingand, thus, favorable balance of power from each actor – in other words, which coalition
of bureaucratic actors will make a more persuasive argument with the President?; Or,
which group of actors is more influential with the President?Conflicts can involve a multiple number of actors; political battles can consist of cabinet
level secretaries, under secretaries, White House senior policy advisors or entire
bureaucratic offices.
Example of Bureaucratic Politics Model:
A Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962
Started with the discovery of Soviet missiles in Cuba in October, 1962Led to the formation of the Executive Commission (ExComm) which presented JFK with
a number of optionsa) Defense Secretary Robert McNamara advocated a “do nothing” approach
From McNamara’s point of view, “a missile is just a missile …. It makes
no difference whether you are killed by a missile from the Soviet Union or
Cuba”
McNamara looked at the situation from the view point of a military
tactician who saw no tactical or logistical difference in the ballisticmissiles’ point of origin
b) National Security Council (NSC) assistant McGeorge Bundy favored a more
diplomatic settlement to the crisis
Bundy proposed making a request to the UN and the Organization of American States for an inspection team to go to Cuba and verify the
presence of the offensive missiles
Bundy also proposed a meeting with the Soviet Leader Khrushchev to
negotiate the removal of the missiles from Cuba, making Cuba neutral,U.S. withdrawal from Guantanamo and U.S. removal of Jupiter Missiles
from Turkey; in other words, Bundy proposed a diplomatic compromise
between the US and USSR
Because Bundy was one of the main supporters and organizers of the
failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, Bundy perhaps saw problems and
risks of a military force and thus, called for diplomacyc) The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) called for a military solution to the conflict
The JCS had a long prepared contingency plans for an offensive strike
against Cuba – this was seen as the moment of truth by the JCS
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Thus, the JCS called for an air-strike to finally “cleanse” the WesternHemisphere of Communism
They argued that the Soviets had inserted the missiles in a daring
challenge to the US, which must be met
Secretary of State, Dean Rusk, also supported the air-strike, as a need to
respond to the US with force By now, the “do-nothing” and diplomatic proposals had been thrown out;
JFK decided that something affirmative had to be done to counter Sovietactions
d) With that, McNamara and Assistant Secretary of Defense (Roswell Gilpatric)
called for a naval blockade
A naval blockade was seen as the best combination of doing something to
respond to USSR; yet, this response could be seen as a defensive response
and, thus, not seen as aggressive or “hard-line”
Just as importantly, it would be McNamara and Gilpatric’s Pentagon that
would have primary responsibility for carrying out the blockade
It was McNamara that was seen as JFK’s closest advisor (second to RFK)in foreign/defense affairs
Also, RFK came out for the blockade
Therefore, the “blockade coalition” of McNamara, RFK and TheodoreSorensen (the President’s Special Counsel) held more influence and sway
with JFK than “air-strike coalition” of the JCF, Rusk and Dean Acheson
(NCS Head)
Because JFK did not have much personal compatibility with latter coalition, the President was more in favor of the recommendations of his
preferred coalition – whom he trusted more
As a result, JFK opted for the naval blockade!
vi)The Organization Process Model
The state is a collection of loosely allied organization ( a plurality of actors)These organizations, which the government consists of, are divided each with a primary
responsibility
The state acts in accordance with the routines that these organizations enact.Each organization attends to a special set of problems and acts on these problems
The organizations will act in somewhat independence of other organizations
Therefore, the decision making of the state comes from the independent behavior of amultiple number of organizations
Thus, policy and state behavior is determined prior to an event occurring
Examples of the Organizational Process Model:
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A Military Mobilization of Any State
A state’s decision to enter a war is really an organizational one
At the bottom, there are soldiers in platoons>These platoons are in companies>these
companies are in armies>these armies are acting in response to orders given to them bylieutenants and captains>these orders coincide with the fixed routines and standard
procedures of the military
B World War I
When Austria – Hungary marched into Serbia, Russian forces began to mobilize todefend Serbia
Czar Nicholas at first ordered partial mobilization of the military – just to show Austriathat Russia was willing to defend the Serbs
However, Russian military leadership informed the Czar that partial mobilization would
make full mobilization almost impossible; thus, the military urged the Czar to order full
mobilization (Russian mobilization capabilities were slower than any other major power involved)
Germany viewing the Russian full mobilization, responded with its full mobilization
This gave Russia the impression that Germany was initiating aggression; thus Russia
committed to defending SerbiaAustria – Hungary, seeing both the German and Russian mobilization, and fearing
Germany might back out on its alliance pact with Austria, ignored communications from
Berlin and marched into SerbiaTherefore, it was not German power ambition or interests that created WWI; rather, it
was the fixed routine of the countries’ military doctrines and capabilities that created the
“domino” effect toward war. Germany, actually did not want war. All states were drawninto the war by way of military organizational routines.
V) Perception and Misperception by Robert Jarvis
- Jervis challenges the rational-choice view of international relations by arguing that
misperception can undermine the real-world accuracy of game theoretic models.
Hypotheses
- "Decision-makers tend to fit incoming information into their existing theories and
images."- There are two ways to make mistakes: One is to not change your views in the face of
conflicting information, the other is to be too willing to do so. Both scholars anddecision-makers are more likely to do the first (not to change their views).
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- It's easier to integrate contradicting information into your image if it comes bit-by-bit
than if it comes all at once. So deliver it all at once, as a fully-formed competing theory
that must be reckoned with.- Misperception is easiest to correct if an actor is mis-categorized (but the category exists
in your head) (e.g. Britain was aware of the category of expansionist states, but it didn't
think Hitler belonged in it); it is hardest to correct if your mind completely lacks a certaincategory (e.g. China in the 19th century didn't know what to make of the West)- If the sender (of a message) has something different on his mind (the "evoked set") than
the receiver does, misunderstanding is likely.- The more time I spend drawing up a plan, the more clear it is to me. So I will assume it is
equally clear to you, making misperception on your part even more likely.- An action may convey an unintended message if the action itself doesn't turn out as
planned.
Hypotheses about Perception
- Decision-makers tend to see other states as more hostile than they are.- We tend to assume that the behavior of others is more centralized and coordinated than it
is (related to hypothesis. 7).- Similarly, we tend to take the foreign ministry's position as representative of the
government as a whole.- When states do something w like, we give ourselves too much credit for getting them to
do so; when states do something we don't like, we attribute it mostly to internal
(domestic) forces.- When I don't try to conceal my intentions, I assume that you accurately perceive them.
- "Suggests that if it is hard for an actor to believe that the other can see him as a menace, it
is often even harder for him to see that issues important to him are not important to
others.- We tend to forget that a single bit of evidence might support more than one view,
including opposing views. See also Allison on this point.
Example of Perception and Misperception – Iran and US Perception of Each Other
Since the fall of Mohammed Reza Shah in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has remained
politically isolated from the United States and the West. After eight years of brutal war with Iraq,
Iran has embarked on a major effort to rebuild its devastated military. A major element of itsmilitary reconstruction has been the acquisition of advanced weapons systems with strategic
applications, such as long-range bombers, submarines, advanced underwater mines, and ballistic
missiles. Iran is also suspected of pursuing the development and acquisition of weapons of massdestruction. Given Iran's latent hostility towards the United States and its past willingness to
engage in terrorism, these activities are a most serious concern.
One of the most significant such dilemmas is the US presence in Iraq and Afghanistan. Saddam
Hussein's Iraq was the gravest threat to Iran's security, followed by the Taliban government and
its brand of Sunni extremism. The United States removed both threats. Iran should, therefore,
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feel that its security position has improved significantly. This in turn should reduce Iran's
perceived interest in acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities.
However, many Iranians see the same reality from an entirely different viewpoint. Instead of
Saddam Hussein's regime, Iran now confronts on its western and eastern borders the most
powerful military in the history of the world and a radical ideological government in Washington bent on overturning governments like Iran's. The American presence surrounding Iran has not
improved security but rather has put a dagger to Iran's front and back. If ever a country needs
nuclear weapons to deter a stronger adversary, it is Iran.
But perhaps the crucial dilemma for Iranian and American officials concerns the question of
regime change. Iranian citizens essentially have voted for regime change several times and have
not obtained it. The unelected Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamene'I, as well as the judiciaryand security apparatus he controls, have prevented the elected president and parliament from
directing the state. Unfortunately, these unelected men determine whether Iran will seek nuclear
weapons, conduct terrorism, or recognize Israel's right to exist. Few inside or out of Iran believe
the US can or should remove this regime. Thus, if vital international problems need to beresolved now, there is little choice but to deal with the people who have power in Iran.
CHINESE CASE STUDY
China's Foreign Policy has changed dramatically since the establishment of the People's
Republic of China in 1949, transforming China’s position from being a Soviet ally challenging
the West, to an independent radical revolutionary state, and then reform-minded country eager to
join the international community? As communism collapsed elsewhere after the end of the Cold
War China is becoming an emerging global power practicing “socialism with Chinese
characteristics”.
China’s traditional culturalism, as envisaged by leading Chinese writers like Liang Qichao, Sun
Yatsen and Feng Youlan, and analyzed by American scholars such as Joseph Levenson and John
K. Fairbank, dominated the Chinese approach to foreign relations for over 2,000 years before the
twentieth century. This culturalism articulated a clear distinction of a Chinese ‘Us’ vis-a`-vis the
non- Chinese ‘Others’. As the twentieth century Chinese philosopher Feng Youlan observed,
‘what the Chinese were always concerned about was the continuation and integrity of the
Chinese culture and civilization from the early Qin dynasty onwards; Chinese had clearly made a
distinction between the “China”, or “Huaxia”, with the “Barbarians (Yidi)”’. Feng argued that
‘such a distinction was made according to a cultural criteria rather than racial differences’.1
1 Feng Youlan, Zhongguo zhexue jianshi, A Concise History of Chinese Philosophy,(Beijing: Beijing daxue chubanshe, 1985), pp. 211–222.
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James Harrison also pointed out that ‘the traditional Chinese self-image has generally been
defined as “culturalism”, based on the historical heritage and acceptance of shared values, not as
nationalism, based on the modern concept of the nation-state’.2 From a culturalist point of view,
the primary identity of the Chinese was the general acceptance of traditional Chinese culture,
namely, the Confucianism that dominated the minds of the Chinese for almost 2,000 years. It is
the acceptance, or not, of this culture that separated the Chinese and the others, or the
‘barbarians’. Furthermore, culturalism did not regard the boundary between the Chinese and
barbarians as static or fixed. Once the ‘barbarians’ adopted Chinese culture, they became
Chinese, and vice versa.3
The "sleeping dragon" has wakened up and is becoming a major political and economic force in
regional and world affairs. Chinese diplomacy is signing investment agreements, building roads,
forming strategic partnerships and gaining membership in regional and international
organizations. Developing Countries are the favorite target for Beijing policy, seen both as
extremely important sources of energy and raw materials, and as supporters to its multilateral
approach to international affairs. China's foreign policy towards the "Third World" shifted,
beginning from the early `80s, from being political-ideological to pragmatic-economic aimed.
Developing countries represent for China many opportunities: sources of oil and raw materials,
new markets for its products and possible allies in the United Nations and in the Taiwan's issue.4
CONCLUSION
2 James Harrison, Modern Chinese Nationalism (Hunter College of the City of New York:
Research Institute onModern Asia, 1969), p. 2.3 Liang Qichao, Liang Qichao zhexue sixiang lunwen ji, Collection of Articles by LiangQichao of His Philosophical Thoughts, (Beijing: Beijing daxue chubanshe, 1984), p. 7.
4 Joshua Eisenman, Eric Heginbotham, Derek Mitchell, China and the Developing
World: Beijing's Strategy for the Twenty-First Century. (M.E. Sharpe, 2007)
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Foreign policy is about obtaining an overall perspective of those activities in which the state is
engaged internationally. Foreign policy behaviour of every state is defined by the historical
legacy of the state, the religious or social traditions or the economic and geographical nature of
the state itself. It is also a means through which the state’s national interest is pursued and
acquired and it therefore must take into cognizance of the objectives the state seeks to pursue and
the means it must have at its disposal to realise the goals.
The national interest encompasses the core values such as the sustenance of state sovereignty and
the guarantee of its territorial integrity at and the assurance of its economic interests. Perceptions
create the overall context in which foreign policy decisions are made.
State level of analysis sees the state as the central actor in the global order. It also acknowledges
that states are complex organizations whose internal dynamics influence their international
actions. The exact nature of that process changes according to a number of variables, including
the type of political system, the type of situation, the type of issue and the internal factors
involved. Another set of internal factors centers on the policy making impact of various foreign
policy making actors. These include political leaders, bureaucratic organizations, legislatures,
political parties and opposition, interest groups and the public. Each of these influences foreign
policy but their influence varies according to the type of government, the situation and the policy
issue.
A nation is said to be secure to the extent to which it is not in danger of sacrificing its
core values. To ensure its security, the state develops national security policy. Such a
policy presupposes dangers external and internal to the state. It is also possible for the
pursuit of security to be driven by the state’s desire and ambition to retain or create
wealth and development for its citizens. Security can be acquired by the state on its
own if it is endowed with enough resources or through alliance with others.
However, regardless of what type of policy adopted by the state, its pursuit is influenced by
several factors such as the availability of resources, the level of technological advancement,
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population size and density, and ethnic and racial cohesion are critical. Also important are
environmental elements such as the geographical location, terrain, climate and natural resources.
Equally important is the world system and the space it gives to a given state and the nature and
type of the political structures in existence.
Usually, heads of government are the most powerful foreign policy making actors with the
bureaucratic organizations coming a close second. The leadership element is also very crucial.
(Does a leader for example perceive constraints as obstacles or opportunities?) This element
must be present at all levels to think through relevant institutions at regional, state and local
level. It is the very essence of leadership is the enhancement and the assurance of the state’s
survival However, it is also important to not that foreign policy is not formulated by a single
decision-making process. The national interest is determined by the decision-makers and is
arrived at after an aggregation of divergent views through a consensus-building process.
Weaknesses
States operate in a complex and interdependent international system and as such they cannot
claim to have absolute independence in the formulation of their policy.
For one to really understand Foreign Policy, one has to look also at the related concepts of
sovereignty, autonomy, interdependence and integration.
Although states remain the dominant actors in the international system, their role is somewhat
weakened by globalization. This means that much of government’s authority has shifted to
supranational authorities.
While state responsibilities have increased, its control over internal outcomes have been
weakened as well
Finally, although our focus was on the state level of analysis, it appears that when it comes to the
formulation of foreign policy, all the three levels of analysis are interrelated.
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