Examining trends of Indian Onion Exports during the period of 2003-04 to 2013-14

• Submitted by : Payal Shah , 10BLS02068

• Dissertation Guide : Dr Prashanta Panda

Introduction

Onion Market in India : • Second largest producer and third largest exporter.• Maximum foreign exchange earner among all the

food commodities exported.• Various grades of Onions : White , Yellow and Red.• Major importing countries : Southeast Asian

countries , West Asia and Europe.• Major Onion producing countries : China , Pakistan

, U.S.A , Egypt , Iran ,Turkey , Afghanistan.

Objectives and Research method

• To understand the changing nature of Onion exports from 2003-04 to 2013-14 and examine the reasons for such volatility.

• For the trend analysis, secondary data from NHRDF and Fed Reserve Bank has been used and examined using graphs.

Literature Review

• Report by CCI – Major findings : Market Structure of Onions, Access to information among farmers

• Report by CRIDA – Impact of excess rains on crop yield and prices and recommendations.

• Case study of Onions ( Economic and Political weekly) – Stresses on improving storage condition for maintaining prices.

Quantity Exports and PUV ( April-07 to March-09)

Apr/07

May/0

7

Jun/07

Jul/07

Aug/07

Sep/0

7

Oct/07

Nov/07

Dec/07

Jan/0

8

Feb/0

8

Mar/08

Apr/08

May/0

8

Jun/08

Jul/08

Aug/08

Sep/0

8

Oct/08

Nov/08

Dec/08

Jan/0

9

Feb/0

9

Mar/09

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Quantity Exports (MT)

PUV

Timeline

Qua

ntity

Exp

orts

PUV

MEP=$US 445

MEP =$US 565

Drought condition in Pak, fall in output More demand of Indian Onions

Source : NHRDF

Quantity Exports and Exchange Rate ( April-07 to March-09)

Apr/07

May/0

7

Jun/07

Jul/07

Aug/07

Sep/0

7

Oct/07

Nov/07

Dec/07

Jan/0

8

Feb/0

8

Mar/08

Apr/08

May/0

8

Jun/08

Jul/08

Aug/08

Sep/0

8

Oct/08

Nov/08

Dec/08

Jan/0

9

Feb/0

9

Mar/09

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

Quantity Exports (MT)

Exchange Rate

Timeline

Qua

ntity

Exp

orts

Exch

ange

rate

Source : NHRDF and Fed Reserve Bank

Quantity Exports and PUV ( April-09 to March-11 )

Apr/09

May/0

9

Jun/09

Jul/09

Aug/09

Sep/0

9

Oct/09

Nov/09

Dec/09

Jan/1

0

Feb/1

0

Mar/10

Apr/10

May/1

0

Jun/10

Jul/10

Aug/10

Sep/1

0

Oct/10

Nov/10

Dec/10

Jan/1

1

Feb/1

1

Mar/11

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Exports (MT) (09-11)

PUV

Timeline

Qua

ntity

Exp

orts

PUV

MEP $US 445-450

MEP $US 500 (till Feb 2010)

High Exp price as compared to China and Pak ( $US 220 in India And $US 170 in Pak , China Re-entry of Pakistan and Iran,

Exports fall in-spite fall in exp

Fall in Kharif outputdue to unfavourable climate in South India

Imposition of ban

Source : NHRDF

Quantity Exports and Exchange Rate ( April-09 to March-11 )

Apr/09

May/0

9

Jun/09

Jul/09

Aug/09

Sep/0

9

Oct/09

Nov/09

Dec/09

Jan/1

0

Feb/1

0

Mar/10

Apr/10

May/1

0

Jun/10

Jul/10

Aug/10

Sep/1

0

Oct/10

Nov/10

Dec/10

Jan/1

1

Feb/1

1

Mar/11

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

41.00

42.00

43.00

44.00

45.00

46.00

47.00

48.00

49.00

50.00

51.00

Exports (MT) (09-11)

Exchange Rate

Qua

ntity

Exp

orts

(MT)

Timeline

Exch

ange

Rat

e

Source : Federal Reserve Bank

Quantity Exports and PUV ( April-11 to March-13 )

Apr/11

May/1

1

Jun/11

Jul/11

Aug/11

Sep/1

1

Oct/11

Nov/11

Dec/11

Jan/1

2

Feb/1

2

Mar/12

Apr/12

May/1

2

Jun/12

Jul/12

Aug/12

Sep/1

2

Oct/12

Nov/12

Dec/12

Jan/1

3

Feb/1

3

Mar/13

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Exports (MT) PUV

Timeline

Qua

ntity

Exp

orts

PUV

MEP reduced to $US 150 (Jan 2012)

Deficient Kharif OutputIn Nov-Dec 2012– rise in exp restriction

High retail prices (20-25 per Kg) And MEP $US 475

Bumper Rabi crop-more stable prices and removal of MEP

Source : NHRDF

Quantity Exports and Exchange Rate ( April-11 to March-13 )

Apr/11

May/1

1

Jun/11

Jul/11

Aug/11

Sep/1

1

Oct/11

Nov/11

Dec/11

Jan/1

2

Feb/1

2

Mar/12

Apr/12

May/1

2

Jun/12

Jul/12

Aug/12

Sep/1

2

Oct/12

Nov/12

Dec/12

Jan/1

3

Feb/1

3

Mar/13

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Exports (MT)Exchange Rate

Timeline

Qua

ntity

exp

orts

Exch

ange

Rat

e ( I

NR

per $

US)

Source : Federal Reserve Bank

Quantity Exports and PUV ( April-13 to January-14 )

Apr/13 May/13 Jun/13 Jul/13 Aug/13 Sep/13 Oct/13 Nov/13 Dec/13 Jan/140

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Exports (Metric Tonne)

PUV

Timeline

Qua

ntity

Exp

orts

PUV

December : MEP reduced To $US 150

Fall in exportsJuly onwards-because of insufficient Kharif crop

MEP: $US 650-900-1150

Source : NHRDF

Quantity Exports and Exchange Rate ( April-13 to January-14 )

Apr/13 May/13 Jun/13 Jul/13 Aug/13 Sep/13 Oct/13 Nov/13 Dec/13 Jan/140

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

Exports (Metric Tonne)

Exchange Rate

Qua

ntity

Exp

orts

(MT)

Timeline

Exch

ange

Rat

e (IN

R pe

r US$

)

Source : Federal Reserve Bank

Conclusion

Main Factors affection Onion Exports :• Insufficient output due to unfavorable

weather and hence the domestic prices.• MEP ( Minimum Export Prices ) and other

restriction.• Output of major competitors and their prices

also.