FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

24
GRIFFIN| CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Discussion Materials June 2011 Jordan Gales - Andrew Kwon - Michael LeRose - Anthony Novio - Jerilee Smith

Transcript of FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Page 1: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

GRIFFIN| CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

Discussion Materials

J u n e 2 0 1 1

J o r d a n G a l e s - A n d r e w K w o n - M i c h a e l L e R o s e - A n t h o n y N o v i o - J e r i l e e S m i t h

Page 2: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Agenda

2

Portfolio Overview

Review of Key Issues

Portfolio Modifications

Fund Strategy

Investment Highlights

Page 3: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Fund StrategyTo generate long-term capital growth through long exposures in the international equity markets, with the focus to generate positive asymmetric returns (>10%) against the benchmark index and peer group

Price/Earnings: Under 25

Price to Earnings Growth: Low (<1)

Price to Cash: Under 6

Price to Book: Under 3

Return on Equity: Over +20%

Return on Investment: Over +15%

Gross Margin: High (>50%)

Net Profit Margin: High (>20%)

Investment StyleOpportunistic bottom-up approach incorporating both stock and sector views with

macroeconomic overlay

Market-capital agnostic allowing for higher flexibility in exposure to a broad range of

potential assets

Individual stocks must develop a near-term catalyst within a period of 6 to 12 months

Strict sell discipline once the target stock price has been reachedIn times of increased volatility and periods of market corrections, increase the cash level

of the portfolio significantlyTarget Exposure (3-5 Yr) Screening Criteria

65%

30%

5%

Foreign

Domestic

Cash

3

Page 4: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Mechanical stock screening and relative rank-orderingFilter that includes financial ratios, price, and other accounting measures of valueImproper finds (false positives) and overlooked opportunities (false negatives) are “double-traps”

Fund Strategy

Active Screening Method (preliminary)

No. Ticker Company Sector Industry CountryMkt Cap

$M P/ E Price

1 CHBT China-Biotics, Inc. Healthcare Drug Manufacturers - Other China 204.67 7.11 8.16$

2 CNET ChinaNet Online Holdings, Inc. Services Advertising Agencies China 38.46 2.92 2.05$

3 CPTS Conceptus, Inc. Healthcare Medical Instruments & Supplies USA 375.84 4.65 12.09$

4 CRUS Cirrus Logic Inc. Technology Semiconductor - Specialized USA 1070.02 5.61 15.81$

5 ENTR Entropic Communications, Inc. Technology Semiconductor - Broad Line USA 706.86 9.48 8.20$

6 GFRE Gulf Resources, Inc. Basic Materials Specialty Chemicals China 135.49 2.36 3.73$

7 HITK Hi Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc. Healthcare Drugs - Generic USA 320.42 9.3 25.49$

8 KLAC KLA-Tencor Corporation Technology Semiconductor Equipment & Materials USA 6833.53 10.46 40.68$

9 MDCO Medicines Co. Healthcare Drug Manufacturers - Other USA 910.74 7.58 16.90$

10 NANO Nanometrics Incorporated Technology Scientific & Technical Instruments USA 346.63 5.84 15.03$

11 NSR NeuStar, Inc. Technology Diversified Communication Services USA 1947.95 13.08 26.39$

12 PWRD Perfect World Co., Ltd. Technology Application Software China 1202.29 9.82 26.00$

13 RBCN Rubicon Technology, Inc. Technology Semiconductor - Specialized USA 507.34 11.18 22.29$

14 SB Safe Bulkers, Inc. Services Shipping Greece 550.03 4.41 7.80$

15 SKBI Skystar Bio Pharmaceutical Company Healthcare Drug Manufacturers - Major China 32.36 2.31 4.63$

16 TER Teradyne Inc. Technology Semiconductor Equipment & Materials USA 2885.45 8.84 15.47$

17 YONG Yongye International, Inc. Basic Materials Agricultural Chemicals China 190.57 3.64 3.91$

Methodology

4

Page 5: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Mechanical stock screening and relative rank-orderingFilter that includes financial ratios, price, and other accounting measures of valueImproper finds (false positives) and overlooked opportunities (false negatives) are “double-traps”

Fund Strategy

Eight-Factor Screen

Methodology

No. Ticker Company Sector CountryMkt Cap

$M P/ E PEG P/ B P/ Cash ROE ROI Gross M Profit M Price

1 CHBT China-Biotics, Inc. Healthcare China 204.67 7.11 0.36 1.02 1.55 25.93% 23.73% 66.99% 43.08% 8.37$

2 CNET ChinaNet Online Holdings, Inc.Services China 38.46 2.92 0.29 0.98 2.18 48.61% 49.66% 62.81% 40.06% 2.03$

3 CPTS Conceptus, Inc. Healthcare USA 375.84 4.65 0.21 2.47 4.98 76.52% 55.15% 80.83% 60.81% 12.08$

4 CRUS Cirrus Logic Inc. Technology USA 1070.02 5.61 0.28 2.44 5.44 61.95% 60.72% 54.66% 55.06% 15.81$

5 ENTR Entropic Communications, Inc.Technology USA 706.86 9.48 0.49 2.68 4.96 44.33% 43.72% 54.03% 30.62% 8.20$

6 GFRE Gulf Resources, Inc. Basic Materials China 135.49 2.36 0.12 0.64 1.54 32.41% 32.08% 51.38% 33.13% 3.68$

7 HITK Hi Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc.Healthcare USA 320.42 9.3 0.68 1.92 5.43 24.05% 23.90% 55.35% 20.07% 25.60$

8 KLAC KLA-Tencor CorporationTechnology USA 6833.53 10.46 0.66 2.56 3.71 27.09% 19.79% 60.21% 23.31% 40.77$

9 MDCO Medicines Co. Healthcare USA 910.74 7.58 0.76 2.36 3.43 37.36% 33.15% 69.60% 26.68% 16.92$

10 NANO Nanometrics IncorporatedTechnology USA 346.63 5.84 0.29 1.86 4.32 40.45% 36.10% 54.85% 28.41% 15.03$

11 NSR NeuStar, Inc. Technology USA 1947.95 13.08 0.7 2.95 5.97 25.50% 24.50% 77.17% 28.11% 26.40$

12 PWRD Perfect World Co., Ltd. Technology China 1202.29 9.82 0.78 2.4 4.39 30.31% 29.51% 82.00% 33.46% 25.98$

13 RBCN Rubicon Technology, Inc.Technology USA 507.34 11.18 0.42 2.39 5.76 29.86% 29.86% 58.74% 44.93% 22.36$

14 SB Safe Bulkers, Inc. Services Greece 550.03 4.41 0.88 2.1 5.48 64.24% 16.67% 84.88% 69.83% 7.80$

15 SKBI Skystar Bio Pharmaceutical CompanyHealthcare China 32.36 2.31 0.39 0.45 5.49 22.47% 21.60% 53.71% 29.63% 4.63$

16 TER Teradyne Inc. Technology USA 2885.45 8.84 0.57 2.35 3.37 40.43% 31.01% 53.88% 24.01% 15.52$

17 YONG Yongye International, Inc.Basic Materials China 190.57 3.64 0.24 0.87 4.55 28.40% 30.01% 55.70% 23.98% 3.90$

5

Page 6: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Mechanical stock screening and relative rank-orderingFilter that includes financial ratios, price, and other accounting measures of valueImproper finds (false positives) and overlooked opportunities (false negatives) are “double-traps”

Fund Strategy

Eight-Factor Screen

Methodology

No. Ticker Company Sector CountryMkt Cap

$M P/ E PEG P/ B P/ Cash ROE ROI Gross M Profit M Price

1 CHBT China-Biotics, Inc. Healthcare China 204.67 7.11 0.36 1.02 1.55 25.93% 23.73% 66.99% 43.08% 8.37$

2 CNET ChinaNet Online Holdings, Inc.Services China 38.46 2.92 0.29 0.98 2.18 48.61% 49.66% 62.81% 40.06% 2.03$

3 CPTS Conceptus, Inc. Healthcare USA 375.84 4.65 0.21 2.47 4.98 76.52% 55.15% 80.83% 60.81% 12.08$

4 CRUS Cirrus Logic Inc. Technology USA 1070.02 5.61 0.28 2.44 5.44 61.95% 60.72% 54.66% 55.06% 15.81$

5 ENTR Entropic Communications, Inc.Technology USA 706.86 9.48 0.49 2.68 4.96 44.33% 43.72% 54.03% 30.62% 8.20$

6 GFRE Gulf Resources, Inc. Basic Materials China 135.49 2.36 0.12 0.64 1.54 32.41% 32.08% 51.38% 33.13% 3.68$

7 HITK Hi Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc.Healthcare USA 320.42 9.3 0.68 1.92 5.43 24.05% 23.90% 55.35% 20.07% 25.60$

8 KLAC KLA-Tencor CorporationTechnology USA 6833.53 10.46 0.66 2.56 3.71 27.09% 19.79% 60.21% 23.31% 40.77$

9 MDCO Medicines Co. Healthcare USA 910.74 7.58 0.76 2.36 3.43 37.36% 33.15% 69.60% 26.68% 16.92$

10 NANO Nanometrics IncorporatedTechnology USA 346.63 5.84 0.29 1.86 4.32 40.45% 36.10% 54.85% 28.41% 15.03$

11 NSR NeuStar, Inc. Technology USA 1947.95 13.08 0.7 2.95 5.97 25.50% 24.50% 77.17% 28.11% 26.40$

12 PWRD Perfect World Co., Ltd. Technology China 1202.29 9.82 0.78 2.4 4.39 30.31% 29.51% 82.00% 33.46% 25.98$

13 RBCN Rubicon Technology, Inc.Technology USA 507.34 11.18 0.42 2.39 5.76 29.86% 29.86% 58.74% 44.93% 22.36$

14 SB Safe Bulkers, Inc. Services Greece 550.03 4.41 0.88 2.1 5.48 64.24% 16.67% 84.88% 69.83% 7.80$

15 SKBI Skystar Bio Pharmaceutical CompanyHealthcare China 32.36 2.31 0.39 0.45 5.49 22.47% 21.60% 53.71% 29.63% 4.63$

16 TER Teradyne Inc. Technology USA 2885.45 8.84 0.57 2.35 3.37 40.43% 31.01% 53.88% 24.01% 15.52$

17 YONG Yongye International, Inc.Basic Materials China 190.57 3.64 0.24 0.87 4.55 28.40% 30.01% 55.70% 23.98% 3.90$

6

Page 7: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Mechanical stock screening and relative rank-orderingFilter that includes financial ratios, price, and other accounting measures of valueImproper finds (false positives) and overlooked opportunities (false negatives) are “double-traps”

Fund Strategy

Eight-Factor Screen (top 2)

Methodology

No. Ticker Company Sector CountryMkt Cap

$M P/ E PEG P/ B P/ Cash ROE ROI Gross M Profit M Price

1 CHBT China-Biotics, Inc. Healthcare China 204.67 7.11 0.36 1.02 1.55 25.93% 23.73% 66.99% 43.08% 8.37$

2 CNET ChinaNet Online Holdings, Inc.Services China 38.46 2.92 0.29 0.98 2.18 48.61% 49.66% 62.81% 40.06% 2.03$

3 CPTS Conceptus, Inc. Healthcare USA 375.84 4.65 0.21 2.47 4.98 76.52% 55.15% 80.83% 60.81% 12.08$

4 CRUS Cirrus Logic Inc. Technology USA 1070.02 5.61 0.28 2.44 5.44 61.95% 60.72% 54.66% 55.06% 15.81$

5 ENTR Entropic Communications, Inc.Technology USA 706.86 9.48 0.49 2.68 4.96 44.33% 43.72% 54.03% 30.62% 8.20$

6 GFRE Gulf Resources, Inc. Basic Materials China 135.49 2.36 0.12 0.64 1.54 32.41% 32.08% 51.38% 33.13% 3.68$

7 HITK Hi Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc.Healthcare USA 320.42 9.3 0.68 1.92 5.43 24.05% 23.90% 55.35% 20.07% 25.60$

8 KLAC KLA-Tencor CorporationTechnology USA 6833.53 10.46 0.66 2.56 3.71 27.09% 19.79% 60.21% 23.31% 40.77$

9 MDCO Medicines Co. Healthcare USA 910.74 7.58 0.76 2.36 3.43 37.36% 33.15% 69.60% 26.68% 16.92$

10 NANO Nanometrics IncorporatedTechnology USA 346.63 5.84 0.29 1.86 4.32 40.45% 36.10% 54.85% 28.41% 15.03$

11 NSR NeuStar, Inc. Technology USA 1947.95 13.08 0.7 2.95 5.97 25.50% 24.50% 77.17% 28.11% 26.40$

12 PWRD Perfect World Co., Ltd. Technology China 1202.29 9.82 0.78 2.4 4.39 30.31% 29.51% 82.00% 33.46% 25.98$

13 RBCN Rubicon Technology, Inc.Technology USA 507.34 11.18 0.42 2.39 5.76 29.86% 29.86% 58.74% 44.93% 22.36$

14 SB Safe Bulkers, Inc. Services Greece 550.03 4.41 0.88 2.1 5.48 64.24% 16.67% 84.88% 69.83% 7.80$

15 SKBI Skystar Bio Pharmaceutical CompanyHealthcare China 32.36 2.31 0.39 0.45 5.49 22.47% 21.60% 53.71% 29.63% 4.63$

16 TER Teradyne Inc. Technology USA 2885.45 8.84 0.57 2.35 3.37 40.43% 31.01% 53.88% 24.01% 15.52$

17 YONG Yongye International, Inc.Basic Materials China 190.57 3.64 0.24 0.87 4.55 28.40% 30.01% 55.70% 23.98% 3.90$

7

Page 8: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Agenda

8

Portfolio Overview

Review of Key Issues

Fund Strategy

Portfolio Modifications

Investment Highlights

Page 9: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Portfolio Overview

9

Portfolio Construction

Regional Views: Specifiable characteristics and catalysts for key markets with stable or growing earnings as well as favorable geo-political conditions

Narrow Focus: Strong bottom-up orientation to equity selection resulting in a concentrated portfolio of no more than 20 positions

Stock Selection: Fundamental analysis, combining multiple valuation models, target prices, liquidity and views on the management quality

Stock Allocation: Conviction weighted portfolio combined with identifiable triggers

Market-Cap (Weight and Return)Sector Breakdown

(%)Sector Returns*

*non-weighted

Mega-cap: Over $100B

Large-cap: $10B-100B

Mid-cap: $1B-10B

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

27%30%

62%Weight

Return

Source: Finviz.com

Retail 26.8

Semi-conductors 13.8

Air Transport 13.0

Consumer Goods 10.6

Healthcare 6.4

Electronics 6.4

Cable 6.1

Railroads 5.7

Cash 5.0

Computer Services 2.3

Specialty Manufacturing 1.8

Rental and Leasing 1.2

Basic Materials 0.9

Retail 53.39%

Consumer Goods 21.90%

Healthcare 17.98%

Air Transport 12.28%

Railroads 8.39%

Electronics 6.40%

Specialty Manufacturing 4.66%

Computer Services 1.72%

Cable 1.22%

Basic Materials -1.07%

Semi-conductors -3.50%

Rental and Leasing -8.91%

Cash nil

Page 10: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Portfolio Overview

10

Fund Performance

Summary Overall Gains(1)

Source: Google Finance

Portfolio netted an overall gain 12.44% coupled with an extremely low standard deviation of 1.03%

Expected return of the portfolio is 0.66% using a 90day T-Bill for risk free rate and market return of 0.544%

Portfolio Beta=1.22 was relatively low considering our weightings in high beta stocks

The risk adjusted returns were close: Sharpe Ratio=12.04% and Treynor Measure=10.17%

Generated a high positive Alpha=11.78%; earned $162 in dividends

Beta Exposure

49%

24%

<0.40.5 to 11 to 1.8

Beta

A

llo

cati

on

2 to 2.6

12.44%

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

90 Day Treasury

0.03% Re= 0.03%+1.22(0.544-0.03)

E(r)portfolio=0.66%

Series1

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Fund*

We

ek

ly

Re

tu

rn

s

Page 11: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Portfolio Overview

Fund Performance

Profits and LossesCorrelationsInsignificant High

NegativeHigh Positive

Risk Characteristics

72% of our stock pairings had low correlations which implies strong portfolio diversification

Although 14 correlation pairings were greater than 0.40, only one of the top three pairings had considerable weights (7% IP and 6% CMCSA)

Realized strong diversification from UNP (6%) and DDS (16%) with a correlation=-0.35

No evidence of exaggerated return fluctuations or deviations from the S&P return and implies portfolio resiliency

Daily Return Volatility

11

SMTC -0.0 ALK

SOA -0.01 CMSA

WMT -0.01 RKT

WMT -0.02 SOA

IP -0.03 DDS

VSH -0.04 RKT

SOA -0.05 DHR

SMTC +0.0 ALK

UNP +0.01 SMTC

WMT +0.01 DDS

SOA +0.05 SMTC

RKT +0.05 GME

SOA +0.05 DDS

RKT +0.06 ARW

RCII -0.57 DHR

UNP -0.36 DDS

UNP -0.35 RCII

SOA -0.34 GME

SMTC -0.3 RCII

RCII -0.3 CMCSA

UP -0.29 RCII

RKT -0.29 ALK

AET -0.28 RCII

RKT -0.28 CMCSA

GME -0.25 ALK

RKT -0.24 IBM

WMT -0.22 RCII

SOA -0.22 RCII

IBM +.76 CMCSA

DHR +.60 CMCSA

IP +.59 CMCSA

VSH +.56 ARW

VSH +.55 SMTC

SMTC +.53 ARW

WMT +.53 CMCSA

AET +.50 DHR

AET +.49 SMTC

AET +.49 VSH

WMT +.48 VSH

AET +.48 WMT

WMT +.46 DHR

WMT +.45 ALK

Ticker Company Weight Return

DDS Dillard's Inc. 16% 31.5%GME GameStop Corp. 8% 18.6%

AET Aetna Inc. 6% 18.0%RKT Rock-Tenn Co. 3% 15.4%ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. 13% 12.3%SMTC Semtech Corp. 13% 8.7%UNP Union Pacific Corporation 6% 8.4%

IP International Paper Company 7% 6.6%DHR Danaher Corp. 2% 4.7%WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 3% 3.2%IBM International Business Machines Corp. 2% 1.7%CMCSA Comcast Corporation 6% 1.2%ARW Arrow Electronics, Inc. 6% -0.2%SOA Solutia Inc. 1% -1.1%RCII Rent-A-Center Inc. 1% -8.9%VSH Vishay Intertechnology Inc. 1% -12.2%

Cash 5%

-3%

0%

3%

Fund

S&P 500

Fund 2 month

Alpha % 11.8%

Beta 1.22

Sharpe Ratio 12.0%

Traynor Measure 10.2%

Std. Dev 1.03%

Page 12: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Portfolio Overview

12

Fund PerformanceAnalysis of Market Timing and Allocation

AbilityBogey Performance and Excess Return

Bogey Performance

Low yields due to low Fed Funds Rates has caused low returns for investors in the bond market

Pessimistic forecasts by other investors and global   turmoil has caused major downturns in the equity market

S&P rating on US DebtNatural and Man-made Disasters

Allocation

Our fund utilized a riskier 95-5 asset allocation structure instead of the ideal 60-30-10

Asset allocation did not determine our rate of return

The types of assets we were allowed to hold restricted our ability to explore asset allocation techniques

Selection

Majority of excess returns were a result of our stock selection techniques

Our eight-factor screening allowed us to hold stocks that generally outperformed the benchmark

Stock Selection

Asset Allocation

ComponentBenchmark

Weight Index Return (%)

Equity (S & P 500) 0.6 0.544%

Bonds (Vangaurd Short Term Bond Index) 0.3 0.020%

Cash (Money Market) 0.1 0.010%

Return of managed portfolio 12.440%

-Return of bogey portfolio 0.333%

Excess return of managed portfolio 12.107%

Market

Actual Market Weight

Benchmark Market Weight

Excess Weight

Index Return (%)

Performance Contribution

(%)

Equity 0.95 0.6 0.35 0.544% 0.190%

Fixed-income 0 0.3 -0.3 0.020% -0.006%

Cash 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.010% 0.004%

Contribution of asset allocation 0.188%

Market

Portfolio Performance

(%)

Index Performance

(%)

Excess Performance

(%)Portfolio Weight

Contribution (%)

Equity 12.44% 0.54% 11.90% 95.00% 11.30%

Fixed-income 0.00% 0.02% -0.02% 0.00% 0.00%

Contribution of selection within markets 11.30%

Page 13: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Agenda

Portfolio Overview

Review of Key Issues

Fund Strategy

13

Portfolio Modifications

Investment Highlights

Page 14: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Investment Highlights

14

Alaska Air Group

Press Releases

In Quarter 1 2011 the company posted an eye- popping 112% share-earnings gain, year over year.

In 2011, Quarter 1, they had an operating margin of 14.9% on sales of $965.2 million. Highest margin of all airlines.

Paid down nearly $200 million of debt over the last six months, improving its debt-to-equity ratio.

Risks

As fuel prices, the industries largest expense, continue to increase over time, the airline industry’s bottom line will be heavily effected.

Airlines will have to increase cost reductions like removing capacity on underperforming routes and price hedging.

Decision

With the highest operating margin in the industry we believe that as the airline continues to lower debt and increase efficiency, they will be able continue to be a valuable investment for our portfolio

Price Data

$54.00

$56.00

$58.00

$60.00

$62.00

$64.00

$66.00

$68.00

$70.00

$72.00

Weekly Interval

**logo banner**

Page 15: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Investment Highlights

15

Dillards, Inc.

Press Releases

Dillard’s boosts dividend after 15 years up 25% to 5cents/share; approves $250 mln share repurchase plan

DDS surged to a new high on topping Q1 expectations; earned $1.31 per share up

from $0.68 the year before- estimate was $0.91

In early May, Dillar’ds reported a 57% surge in profit reflecting improved margins, higher revenues, and 2% comparable store sales growth

Risks

Department Sector may continue to lag behind, but latest earnings show that consumer purchases are rebounding in 2011

Decision

Confident in their ability to maintain profit margin figures and retrench their consumer base, amidst heightened competition from Macy’s and JC Penney

Price Data

$35.00

$38.00

$41.00

$44.00

$47.00

$50.00

$53.00

$56.00

$59.00

Weekly Interval

Page 16: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Investment Highlights

16

Comcast Corporation

Press Releases

Major film studio Miramax signed a 700-title licensing deal with both Netflix and Hulu; Hulu is co-owned by Walt Disney, Comcast, and 20th Century Fox Parent

News Corp.

Comcast committed to purchasing the remaining stake in Universal Orlando from PE firm Blackstone Group for $1-1.5B; Universal generated $267 in operating revenue

Comcast hires former FCC Commissioner Meredith Baker for lobbying job just four months post approval for the $12.75B acquisition of NBC-Universal

Strengths

Recent acquisition of NBC-Universal gives Comcast a strong foothold to compete in the online media space

Decision

Although key decisions in the past year reflect an proactive strategy, competitive advantage still marginal

Price Data

$22.50

$23.00

$23.50

$24.00

$24.50

$25.00

$25.50

$26.00

$26.50

$27.00

Weekly Interval

Page 17: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Investment Highlights

17

Rock-Tenn Company

Press ReleasesAcquired Smurfit-Stone Container Corp,

making Rock-Tenn the no.2 North American producer of containerboard and coated recycled board.

Contributed a 15.4% return with a 3% weight in our portfolio

Reported Q2 2011 net income increase of 13% and increase in sales of 8.3%, also reduced debt by $48 million in the quarter

RisksManufacturing capacity may leave the

U.S. at a higher- than-expected rate, slowing volume growth and creating slack capacity.

Uncertainty regarding the effect of Rock-Tenn’s acquisition will have on operations.

Decision

With the companies purchase of Smurfit-Stone, we are confident that they will effectively integrate the acquisition and continue their industry leading practices.

Price Data

$60.00

$62.00

$64.00

$66.00

$68.00

$70.00

$72.00

$74.00

$76.00

$78.00

$80.00

Weekly Interval

Page 18: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Investment Highlights

18

Wal-mart Stores, Inc.

Press ReleasesSouth Africa approves Wal-Mart,

Massmart Merger with conditionsWalmart reports FY12 first quarter EPS

from continuing operations of $0.98, above guidance

Walmart announces acquisition of social media company Kosmix

Strengths

Entrance into high growth countries seen as a vote of confidence in South Africa’s economy and the continent’s potential

South Africa’s Massmart operates in more than a dozen African countries; Wal-Mart will now have access to more than 50 million African consumers

Decision

Despite low-weight in current allocation, movement into new continent poses high potential for increased revenue growth and untapped consumer base

Price Data

$50.00

$51.00

$52.00

$53.00

$54.00

$55.00

$56.00

$57.00

Weekly Interval

Page 19: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Agenda

Portfolio Overview

Fund Strategy

19

Portfolio Modifications

Investment Highlights

Review of Key Issues

Page 20: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Review of Key Issues

1. Investigate the company’s operating history

Original 4 stocks chosen for the portfolio were some of the highest rated by Value Line, but 2 out of 4

ended up eroding our returns

Be critical of using key sources weather it’s Value Line, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, or Financial

Times; there’s always a more complicated chain of events

2. Follow principles not rules

Rather than focusing merely on P/E ratios, betas and PE/G ratios, we started to look deeper into the

economic conditions of each industry and the economy as a whole

Resist choosing stocks based on popularity, investigate smaller-cap stocks that reap higher returns

while staying out of the public eye

3. IPOs, buyout rumors, and global news have drastic effects on stock prices

Price boom in LinkedIn’s IPO, attempts at Apple buying out T-Mobile, stock splits in Caterpillar, and even global disasters

Market is extremely quick to react to this type of news causing spikes in prices, but the market tended to be slower when correcting exaggerated price shifts due to news

4. Diversify on a global scale

The US has many pending negative issues that we believe will soon affect the market. U.S. government’s debt ceiling, the ending of the QE2, the slow-down growth in emerging-markets, and the debt issues in Europe are all adding to market risk and volatility

By investing in other countries whose economies are not correlated with the US, we could more effectively diversify our portfolio.

20

Page 21: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Agenda

Portfolio Overview

Review of Key Issues

Fund Strategy

21

Portfolio Modifications

Investment Highlights

Page 22: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Portfolio Modifications

Criteria Match

Portfolio was relatively conservative relative to our high degree of risk toleranceStricter procedures needed for closing out of underperforming stocks (e.g. mega-cap

underperformance)Unjustly weighted to domestic stocks, foreign stocks will represent 65% of our portfolio in coming 5yrs

Critique

Source: Finviz.com

22

No.Ticker Company Sector Country Mkt Cap $M P/ E PEG P/ B P/ Cash ROE ROI Gross M Profit M Beta Price

1 AET Aetna Inc. Healthcare USA 16401.99 9.91 0.87 1.6 11.36 17.79% 5.26% 1.30 43.62$

2 ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. Services USA 2438.95 7.83 1.31 2.1 2.34 31.14% 8.76% 28.16% 8.07% 0.51 67.59$

3 ARW Arrow Electronics, Inc. Services USA 4916.11 9.52 0.62 1.4 9.43 16.51% 10.89% 13.19% 2.68% 1.60 43.10$

4 CMCSA Comcast Corporation Services USA 67467.62 18.48 1.35 1.5 35.58 8.30% 3.31% 52.08% 9.37% 1.02 24.52$

5 DDS Dillard's Inc. Services USA 2989.51 15.67 2.85 1.5 20.3 9.99% 5.83% 35.46% 3.31% 2.56 55.50$

6 DHR Danaher Corp. Conglomerates USA 35361.2 18.95 1.24 2.7 22.19 14.43% 10.43% 51.22% 14.22% 0.87 54.10$

7 GME GameStop Corp. Services USA 3901.88 10.08 0.82 1.3 9.86 14.55% 12.34% 26.75% 4.26% 1.09 27.88$

8 IBM International Business Machines Corp.Technology USA 203469.49 14.09 1.32 9.0 15.36 67.53% 21.11% 46.15% 14.85% 0.73 168.32$

9 IP International Paper Co. Consumer Goods USA 13164.69 11.9 2.6 1.8 6.42 16.73% 4.79% 27.63% 3.87% 2.18 30.42$

10 RCII Rent-A-Center Inc. Services USA 1983.04 12.42 1.38 1.4 13.68 12.19% 7.58% 72.17% 5.97% 0.80 31.44$

11 RKT Rock-Tenn Co. Consumer Goods USA 2876.93 12.97 1.73 2.6 241.76 22.22% 9.89% 23.16% 7.31% 1.09 74.18$

12 SMTC Semtech Corp. Technology USA 1762.4 24.12 2.01 3.3 7.62 15.53% 14.41% 59.03% 15.97% 1.08 27.21$

13 SOA Solutia Inc. Basic Materials USA 2829.56 13.3 2.66 3.3 16.36 30.43% 6.97% 30.93% 10.54% 10.43 23.85$

14 UNP Union Pacific CorporationServices USA 49827.02 17.45 1.12 2.8 39.93 16.47% 7.22% 72.18% 16.60% 1.11 102.72$

15 VSH Vishay Intertechnology Inc.Technology USA 2502.36 7.2 0.6 1.6 2.48 24.63% 16.12% 30.76% 14.04% 0.31 15.44$

16 WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Services USA 190976.22 12.74 1.31 2.9 20.32 23.63% 14.14% 24.69% 3.78% 2.09 54.58$

Page 23: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

Portfolio Modifications

Criteria Match

Source: Finviz.com

23

Portfolio was relatively conservative relative to our high degree of risk toleranceStricter procedures needed for closing out of underperforming stocks (e.g. mega-cap

underperformance)Unjustly weighted to domestic stocks, foreign stocks will represent 65% of our portfolio in coming 5yrs

Critique

No.Ticker Company Sector Country Mkt Cap $M P/ E PEG P/ B P/ Cash ROE ROI Gross M Profit M Beta Price

1 AET Aetna Inc. Healthcare USA 16401.99 9.91 0.87 1.6 11.36 17.79% 5.26% 1.30 43.62$

2 ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. Services USA 2438.95 7.83 1.31 2.1 2.34 31.14% 8.76% 28.16% 8.07% 0.51 67.59$

3 ARW Arrow Electronics, Inc. Services USA 4916.11 9.52 0.62 1.4 9.43 16.51% 10.89% 13.19% 2.68% 1.60 43.10$

4 CMCSA Comcast Corporation Services USA 67467.62 18.48 1.35 1.5 35.58 8.30% 3.31% 52.08% 9.37% 1.02 24.52$

5 DDS Dillard's Inc. Services USA 2989.51 15.67 2.85 1.5 20.3 9.99% 5.83% 35.46% 3.31% 2.56 55.50$

6 DHR Danaher Corp. Conglomerates USA 35361.2 18.95 1.24 2.7 22.19 14.43% 10.43% 51.22% 14.22% 0.87 54.10$

7 GME GameStop Corp. Services USA 3901.88 10.08 0.82 1.3 9.86 14.55% 12.34% 26.75% 4.26% 1.09 27.88$

8 IBM International Business Machines Corp.Technology USA 203469.49 14.09 1.32 9.0 15.36 67.53% 21.11% 46.15% 14.85% 0.73 168.32$

9 IP International Paper Co. Consumer Goods USA 13164.69 11.9 2.6 1.8 6.42 16.73% 4.79% 27.63% 3.87% 2.18 30.42$

10 RCII Rent-A-Center Inc. Services USA 1983.04 12.42 1.38 1.4 13.68 12.19% 7.58% 72.17% 5.97% 0.80 31.44$

11 RKT Rock-Tenn Co. Consumer Goods USA 2876.93 12.97 1.73 2.6 241.76 22.22% 9.89% 23.16% 7.31% 1.09 74.18$

12 SMTC Semtech Corp. Technology USA 1762.4 24.12 2.01 3.3 7.62 15.53% 14.41% 59.03% 15.97% 1.08 27.21$

13 SOA Solutia Inc. Basic Materials USA 2829.56 13.3 2.66 3.3 16.36 30.43% 6.97% 30.93% 10.54% 10.43 23.85$

14 UNP Union Pacific CorporationServices USA 49827.02 17.45 1.12 2.8 39.93 16.47% 7.22% 72.18% 16.60% 1.11 102.72$

15 VSH Vishay Intertechnology Inc.Technology USA 2502.36 7.2 0.6 1.6 2.48 24.63% 16.12% 30.76% 14.04% 0.31 15.44$

16 WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Services USA 190976.22 12.74 1.31 2.9 20.32 23.63% 14.14% 24.69% 3.78% 2.09 54.58$

Page 24: FIN330 - Portfolio Management - Dr. Joseph Vu

J o r d a n G a l e s - A n d r e w K w o n - M i c h a e l L e R o s e - A n t h o n y N o v i o - J e r i l e e S m i t h