Figure 1.1 Area of responsibility of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center

Figure 3.1 Monthly mean streamline at 850 hPa (lines with arrows) and areas of less than 230 w/m2 of OLR (shaded) in September 2011. The tracks of the seven named TCs formed in September are superimposed onto the figure.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

number

month

Monthly formation of TCs

2011

Average (1981-2010)

Figure 3.2 Monthly formations of TCs in 2011 compared to the 30-year average (1981-2010)

Figure 3.3 Tracks of the 21 named TCs in 2011. TC tracks for the period of TS or higher are shown.

Figure 3.4 Genesis points of the 21 TCs generated in 2011 (dots) and frequency distribution of genesis points for 1951 - 2010 (lines)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Error (km)

120-hour

96-hour

72-hour

48-hour

24-hour

Figure 4.1 Annual means of position errors of 24-, 48-, 72-, 96- and 120-hour operational track forecasts

Figure 4.2.1 Histogram of position errors for 24-hour operational track forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

450- 500

400- 450

350- 400

300- 350

250- 300

200- 250

150- 200

100- 150

50- 100

0- 50

Error (km)

Number of Cases

Figure 4.2.2 Histogram of position errors for 48-hour operational track forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

950-1000

850- 900

750- 800

650- 700

550- 600

450- 500

350- 400

250- 300

150- 200

50- 100

Error (km)

Number of Cases

Figure 4.2.3 Histogram of position errors for 72-hour operational track forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50

1150-1200

1050-1100

950-1000

850- 900

750- 800

650- 700

550- 600

450- 500

350- 400

250- 300

150- 200

50- 100

Error (km)

Number of Cases

Figure 4.2.4 Histogram of position errors for 96-hour operational track forecasts in 2011

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1500-1550

1400-1450

1300-1350

1200-1250

1100-1150

1000-1050

900- 950

800- 850

700- 750

600- 650

500- 550

400- 450

300- 350

200- 250

100- 150

0- 50

Error (km)

Number of Cases

Figure 4.2.5 Histogram of position errors for 120-hour operational track forecasts in 2011

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1500-1550

1400-1450

1300-1350

1200-1250

1100-1150

1000-1050

900- 950

800- 850

700- 750

600- 650

500- 550

400- 450

300- 350

200- 250

100- 150

0- 50

Error (km)

Number of Cases

Figure 4.2.6 Histogram of position errors for 24-, 48-, 72-, 96-, 120-hour operational track forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

1150-1200

1100-1150

1050-1100

1000-1050

950-1000

900- 950

850- 900

800- 850

750- 800

700- 750

650- 700

600- 650

550- 600

500- 550

450- 500

400- 450

350- 400

300- 350

250- 300

200- 250

150- 200

100- 150

50- 100

0- 50

Number of Cases

Errors (km)

er24er48er72er96er120

Figure 4.3.1 Histogram of central pressure errors for 24-hour forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

42.5 - 47.5

37.5 - 42.5

32.5 - 37.5

27.5 - 32.5

22.5 - 27.5

17.5 - 22.5

12.5 - 17.5

7.5 - 12.5

2.5 - 7.5

-2.5 - 2.5

-7.5 - -2.5

-12.5 - -7.5

-17.5 - -12.5

-22.5 - -17.5

-27.5 - -22.5

-32.5 - -27.5

-37.5 - -32.5

-42.5 - -37.5

-47.5 - -42.5

Number of Cases

Error (hPa)

Figure 4.3.2 Histogram of central pressure errors for 48-hour forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

52.5 - 57.547.5 - 52.542.5 - 47.537.5 - 42.532.5 - 37.527.5 - 32.522.5 - 27.517.5 - 22.512.5 - 17.5

7.5 - 12.52.5 - 7.5

-2.5 - 2.5-7.5 - -2.5

-12.5 - -7.5-17.5 - -12.5-22.5 - -17.5-27.5 - -22.5-32.5 - -27.5-37.5 - -32.5-42.5 - -37.5-47.5 - -42.5-52.5 - -47.5-57.5 - -52.5-62.5 - -57.5

Number of Cases

Error (hPa)

Figure 4.3.3 Histogram of central pressure errors for 72-hour forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50

57.5 - 62.552.5 - 57.547.5 - 52.542.5 - 47.537.5 - 42.532.5 - 37.527.5 - 32.522.5 - 27.517.5 - 22.512.5 - 17.5

7.5 - 12.52.5 - 7.5

-2.5 - 2.5-7.5 - -2.5

-12.5 - -7.5-17.5 - -12.5-22.5 - -17.5-27.5 - -22.5-32.5 - -27.5-37.5 - -32.5-42.5 - -37.5-47.5 - -42.5-52.5 - -47.5-57.5 - -52.5-62.5 - -57.5-67.5 - -62.5

Number of Cases

Error (hPa)

Figure 4.3.4 Histogram of central pressure errors for 24-, 48-, 72-hour forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

52.5 - 57.5

47.5 - 52.5

42.5 - 47.5

37.5 - 42.5

32.5 - 37.5

27.5 - 32.5

22.5 - 27.5

17.5 - 22.5

12.5 - 17.5

7.5 - 12.5

2.5 - 7.5

-2.5 - 2.5

-7.5 - -2.5

-12.5 - -7.5

-17.5 - -12.5

-22.5 - -17.5

-27.5 - -22.5

-32.5 - -27.5

-37.5 - -32.5

-42.5 - -37.5

-47.5 - -42.5

-52.5 - -47.5

-57.5 - -52.5

-62.5 - -57.5

-67.5 - -62.5

Number of Cases

Errors (hPa)

er24er48er72

Figure 4.3.5 Histogram of maximum wind speed errors for 24-hour forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

18.75 - 21.2516.25 - 18.7513.75 - 16.2511.25 - 13.758.75 - 11.25

6.25 - 8.753.75 - 6.251.25 - 3.75

-1.25 - 1.25-3.75 - -1.25-6.25 - -3.75-8.75 - -6.25

-11.25 - -8.75-13.75 - -11.25-16.25 - -13.75-18.75 - -16.25-21.25 - -18.75

Number of Cases

Error (m/s)

Figure 4.3.6 Histogram of maximum wind speed errors for 48-hour forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

23.75 - 26.2521.25 - 23.7518.75 - 21.2516.25 - 18.7513.75 - 16.2511.25 - 13.75

8.75 - 11.256.25 - 8.753.75 - 6.251.25 - 3.75

-1.25 - 1.25-3.75 - -1.25-6.25 - -3.75-8.75 - -6.25

-11.25 - -8.75-13.75 - -11.25-16.25 - -13.75-18.75 - -16.25-21.25 - -18.75-23.75 - -21.25-26.25 - -23.75

Number of Cases

Error (m/s)

Figure 4.3.7 Histogram of maximum wind speed errors for 72-hour forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

23.75 - 26.2521.25 - 23.7518.75 - 21.2516.25 - 18.7513.75 - 16.2511.25 - 13.75

8.75 - 11.256.25 - 8.753.75 - 6.251.25 - 3.75

-1.25 - 1.25-3.75 - -1.25-6.25 - -3.75-8.75 - -6.25

-11.25 - -8.75-13.75 - -11.25-16.25 - -13.75-18.75 - -16.25-21.25 - -18.75-23.75 - -21.25-26.25 - -23.75

Number of Cases

Error (m/s)

Figure 4.3.8 Histogram of maximum wind speed errors for 24-, 48-, 72-hour forecasts in 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

23.75 - 26.25

21.25 - 23.75

18.75 - 21.25

16.25 - 18.75

13.75 - 16.25

11.25 - 13.75

8.75 - 11.25

6.25 - 8.75

3.75 - 6.25

1.25 - 3.75

-1.25 - 1.25

-3.75 - -1.25

-6.25 - -3.75

-8.75 - -6.25

-11.25 - -8.75

-13.75 - -11.25

-16.25 - -13.75

-18.75 - -16.25

-21.25 - -18.75

-23.75 - -21.25

-26.25 - -23.75

Number of Cases

Errors (m/s)

er24er48er72

Figure 4.4 GSM annual mean position errors from 1997 to 2011

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Error (km)

78-hour

54-hour

30-hour

Figure 4.5.1 Error distribution of GSM position predictions of the tropical cycolones in 2011

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

0 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 150

150 - 200

200 - 250

250 - 300

300 - 350

350 - 400

400 - 450

450 - 500

500 - 550

550 - 600

600 - 650

650 - 700

700 - 750

750 - 800

800 - 850

850 - 900

900 - 950

950 -1000

1000 -

Number of Cases

Error (km)

30-hour GSM Predictionsfor Center Position

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 150

150 - 200

200 - 250

250 - 300

300 - 350

350 - 400

400 - 450

450 - 500

500 - 550

550 - 600

600 - 650

650 - 700

700 - 750

750 - 800

800 - 850

850 - 900

900 - 950

950 -1000

1000 -

Number of Cases

Error (km)

54-hour GSM Predictions for Center Position

0 10 20 30 40 50

0 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 150

150 - 200

200 - 250

250 - 300

300 - 350

350 - 400

400 - 450

450 - 500

500 - 550

550 - 600

600 - 650

650 - 700

700 - 750

750 - 800

800 - 850

850 - 900

900 - 950

950 -1000

1000 -

Number of Cases

Error (km)

78-hour GSM Predictions for Center Position

Figure 4.5.2 Error distribution of GSM 30-hour intensity predictions of the tropical cyclones in 2011

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

+5

+10

+15

+20

+25

+30

+35

+40

Number of Cases

Error (hPa)

30-hour GSM Predictions for Central Pressure

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

-17.5

-15.0

-12.5

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0

+2.5

+5.0

+7.5

+10.0

+12.5

+15.0

+17.5

Number of Cases

Error (m/s)

30-hour GSM Predictionsfor Maximum Sustained Wind

Figure 4.5.3 Error distribution of GSM 54-hour intensity predictions of the tropical cyclones in 2011

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

+5

+10

+15

+20

+25

+30

+35

+40

Number of Cases

Error (hPa)

54-hour GSM Predictions for Central Pressure

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

-17.5

-15.0

-12.5

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0

+2.5

+5.0

+7.5

+10.0

+12.5

+15.0

+17.5

Number of Cases

Error (m/s)

54-hour GSM Predictionsfor Maximum Sustained Wind

Figure 4.5.4 Error distribution of GSM 78-hour intensity predictions of the tropical cyclones in 2011

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

+5

+10

+15

+20

+25

+30

+35

+40

Number of Cases

Error (hPa)

78-hour GSM Predictions for Central Pressure

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

-17.5

-15.0

-12.5

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0

+2.5

+5.0

+7.5

+10.0

+12.5

+15.0

+17.5

Number of Cases

Error (m/s)

78-hour GSM Predictionsfor Maximum Sustained Wind