Fifth Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ... · Fifth Assessment Report...
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Michael OppenheimerPrinceton University
AtPace University
20 November 2014
Fifth Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change:When Will Global Warming Become
Dangerous?
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Can policy makers think ahead?
CourtesySydneyHarris
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IPCC WGI AR4
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Grew by 43% in Industrial Era
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Problem: human-made carbon dioxide in the atmosphere behaves like water in a
bathtub with a stuffed drain
Emissions
Amount = Concentration X Volume
“Sinks”
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Fossil fuels emissions largely responsible
IPCC WGI AR5
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Global Mean Temperature, Sea Level Rising
IPCC WGI AR5
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How do we know this warming is human-made?
IPCC WGI AR5
Nature 453, 291(2008)
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Many Impacts Now Attributable to Climate Change IPCC WGI AR5
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July 3 2014 - Central Arctic Credit: MO
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Projected Warming
and Sea Level
Rise
IPCC WGI AR5
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Geographic Picture of WarmingLow High
IPCC WGI AR5
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When Considering Dangerous Impacts:Adaptation (reducing vulnerability and
exposure) is Critical but Usually Suboptimal
13
Vulnerability:
The predisposition of a person or group to be adversely affected
Exposure:
Being in the wrong place at the wrong time
RISK
IPCC WGI AR5
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A Key Risk:Heat Index
(From “Risky Business”)
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US Extreme Heat Risk(from “Risky Business”)
Category III+ Wet-bulb Temperature
Most of summer Cat III,1 month Cat IV
1 week+ Cat III,1 day+ Cat IV
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Crop Yield Declines Outpace Increases
All emission scenarios and adaptation levels relative to late 20th C
IPCC WGI AR5
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Coastal Flooding:In warmer world, East Coast US,
current hundred-year storm recurs ~annually
IPCC WGI AR5
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Example: Hurricane SandySandy-like flood (11 ft.) returns more often due to higher sea
level (here 3ft) and stronger hurricanes
Return perioddecreases
(Lin et al 2012)
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Bundling the risks, rationale for 20C (or lower) danger point is clear
IPCC WGI AR5, Stocker
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Implied Emissions Reductions
IPCC WGI AR5
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(to have a 2/3 chance)!
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Risk in NOT Acting AggressivelyIPCC WGI AR5
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Where Reductions Fall, by Sector
IPCC WGI AR5
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Hoboken subway station 2012 - - - and 1992
A Reminder That We Forget