FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and...

47
FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS REPORT October 2008

Transcript of FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and...

Page 1: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWSYNTHESIS REPORT

October 2008

Page 2: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

BACKGROUND&

METHODOLOGY

2

Page 3: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

BACKGROUNDG ’Government’s objectives

Progress measured against government objectivesg g g jTransforming apartheid’s legacy: − Constitution; RDP objectives

Grow the economy central main intervention

Second Decade objectives - 2004 Manifesto & MTSF

Grow the economy – central, main interventionInvolve marginalised in economic activityGrants reliance diminishes as economic interventions succeedImproved performance of state, anti-crime campaign & international relations in the maincampaign & international relations in the main to promote growth and social inclusion

3

Page 4: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

METHODOLOGYIndicators

Development IndicatorsFocus on Impact not Output

Economic growth & Transformation

Employment

Focus on Impact not Output− More on output in Theme

Background ReportsOutput sometimes proxy for Poverty & Inequality

Household & Community assets

H lthI t t

− Output sometimes proxy for Impact

Health

Education

Social cohesion

Impact assessment uses Development Indicators, supplemented as Social cohesion

Safety & Security

International relationsPublic perception is a

needed by others

Good governancePublic perception is a complementary measure

4

Page 5: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

THEMESTHEMES

5

Page 6: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

GOVERNANCE& G GDemocracy & Good Governance

Transparency & openness: Well-functioning demo-Constitution, PAIA, B.PeleFight against corruption making some impact

cratic system – legitimacy of elections unchallenged

Participation/access Platforms making some impactParticipation/access Platforms Sectoral forums Ward councilsWorking Groups Izimbizo

For clean governmentNational Anti-Corruption SummitNational Anti Corruption Forum

Independent institutions ti d

CDWs Thusong Centres National Anti-Corruption Forum Prevention & Combating of Corrupt Activities Act

N ti l A ti C ti H tlisupporting democracy National Anti-Corruption Hotline

X Increased protests outside institutions over recent yearsPSC d t t ill i d t t tiX PSC says departments ill-equipped to act on corruption; and give little feedback on hotline referrals

6

Page 7: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

GOVERNANCEfMacro-organisation of the state

New structures and Cl tFOSADMINMECsNew structures and

systems for better coordination Cabinet

Clusters FOSADPCC

Makgotla IGR Act

Elements of medium term planning and oversight;

i h k d l

g

MTSF PGDSNSDP

MTEF

B t d i di ti d h ll

with work towards long-term planning

GWM&ESMTEF

POA

X But advances in coordination exposed new challenges− Committee and Cluster coordination weaknesses− Unfinished business of “Organisation & Capacity”g p y− Provincial and Local Government review initiated

7

Page 8: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

GOVERNANCEC f

Public Service

Capacity and performance

Integrated; near demographic targets bar disabilityPFMA improves financial management

X Skills shortages exacerbated by economic growthX Skills shortages exacerbated by economic growthX G&A 2007 capacity assessment found problems

Local governmentLocal government1990s reforms produced mixed results; Project Consolidate helped to an extent

X Service delivery lags financial injectionX Staff vacancies – esp. small and rural authorities X Governance compliance issues: 25% unqualifiedX Governance, compliance issues: 25% unqualified

audit opinions in 2006/07; “self-supervision”8

Page 9: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

SOCIAL

Income poverty declined –

Income poverty alleviation

D li i i tesp. African, then ColouredGrants main driver - 90% of 2005 income of Deciles 1 2;

Declining income povertyHousehold below: 1995 2005- R322 per person 53% 48%- R174 per person 31% 23%2005 income of Deciles 1,2;

+50% in Decile 5X Uptake slowing, but new Expanding social security

Beneficiaries: 1999 2007

- R174 per person 31% 23%

p gcategories to cover

X Income inequality grown

Beneficiaries: 1999 2007- All grants 2.5 m 12m+- CSG 34k 7.8m

EPWP already created 1 million work opportunities (2008)Significant potential in ECD and HCBC

X But implementation in some sectors slow

9

Page 10: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

SOCIALHuman capital poverty alleviation

Big expansion in access Expanding access to services95% now within 5km of health facilityPHC visits up (67m in 1997

1996 2007Electricity: lighting 58% 80%Electricity: cooking 47% 67%Water: RDP std 62% 88%PHC visits up (67m in 1997

to101m in 2007)ART expansion

Water: RDP std. 62% 88%Water: in dwelling 61% 70%Sanitation: RDP 50% 71%Sanitation: bucket 576k 113k

Aff d bilit li it f l t i it t li hti f

pTertiary educ. enrolment up

Sanitation: bucket 576k 113k5 yr olds in School 23% 81%6 yr olds in School 49% 91%

X Affordability limits use of electricity to lighting for manyX Poor quality of education output X TB, HIV remain major concerns along with emergent

diseases posing new challenges

10

Page 11: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

SOCIAL

Housing

Asset poverty reduction

Subsidised housing to 10m. citizens since 1994, transferring R48,5 billion of assets Formal dwellings: 64 4% in 1996; 70 5% in 2007Formal dwellings: 64,4% in 1996; 70,5% in 2007

X Expansion barely keeping pace with rising need & quality impacted upon by inflation

Land 1,4 m. benefit from land restitution; most claims settled but slowing with complex remaining claimssettled but slowing with complex remaining claims

X 2,3m. hectares distributed through land reform is way below the pace needed for 30% by 2015y p y

X Weak post-settlement support limits impact; undermines national farming productive capacity 11

Page 12: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

ECONOMICGGrowth and employment

Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment14 years of growth− 2003 starts faster growth

with new jobs outpacing

Growth 94-03 04-07-GDP 3% 5%-Per capita GDP 1% 4%

Unemployment 2003 2007

Stabilising interventions create climate for microeconomic

with new jobs outpacing labour market growth

Unemployment 2003 2007-% Ec. Act. Pop. 31% 23%

reform policy orientation and sustainable growthSupport programmes across spectrum of small business

X Unemployment burden still on low-skilled; youth, women

X Insufficient take up of small enterprise sector 12

Page 13: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

ECONOMICMacro economy

Macroeconomic management a major post-1994 achievement

Fiscal and monetary policy reduced debt; enabled more social spending; got inflation on target till recently

GFCF, just 16% for much of period, lifted to 21% by 2007 with growth and govt.’s infrastructure programme

on track for 25% before target of 2014- on track for 25% before target of 2014.

X BoP and inflation deteriorate, worsened by global trendstrends

X Salience of foreign portfolio investment a vulnerability

X Trade & monetary policies exchange & interest ratesX Trade & monetary policies, exchange & interest rates not always mutually supportive

13

Page 14: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

ECONOMICEconomic structure, trade and human resources

Microeconomic growth opportunities/constraints and ti titi ti t t f t 2000anti-competitive practices get stronger focus post-2000.

SOE regulation begins to address potential to contribute to growth and development

X Growth spurt highlights infrastructure bottlenecks

Early trade policy reforms and more recent negotiations aid industrial restructuring and market access

X 13.7% export growth 2001-06 below 23.4% import growth- much slower than successful developing countriesp g

JIPSA focus boosts efforts to enhance economy’s HR through skills development; BB-BEE, innovation, R&D

X Hardly addressed the massive shortages across society

14

Page 15: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

Justice, Crime Prevention and SecurityfReducing crime and enhancing safety

Overall crime rate peaked Crime/100,000 94 02 08pin 2002 then declined

Less incidents in most categories

Overall 5202 5765 4255Murder 67 47 39Aggr. Robbery 218 279 247categories

X Violent robbery incidents upFirearms, alcohol, drugs up due to police activity

Rape 115 115 76Firearms etc 213 207 358

due to police activity

Specialised teams impact on organised crime

Specialised sexual offences courts improve conviction rateson organised crime

X In response criminals shift operations

X Pace of decline in serious

rates

By 2007: 44% less licensed firearms; 25% less reportedX Pace of decline in serious

crimes below targetfirearms; 25% less reported lost or stolen, 500k destroyed

15

Page 16: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

Justice, Crime Prevention and SecuritySSecurity

A number of security challenges have been addressed

Political interventions reduced levels of political violence from the 1990s levels.

X Use of violence for socio-political objectives increasingly pervasive especially among youth since 2006 and recently towards foreign nationals2006 and recently towards foreign nationals

X The efficacy of border control coordinating structures hampered by weakness in migration policy Terrorist threats arising from domestic issues and dynamics elsewhere have been contained

16

Page 17: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

Justice, Crime Prevention and Securityf f C STransformation of Criminal Justice System

Much done to transform cluster departments and increased budgets have strengthened them

x Coordination weakness hampering impact

Judiciary at higher levels has answered to its role in a constitutional democracy

x Capacity and orientation issues inhibit access to justicex Capacity and orientation issues inhibit access to justice & administration of the system remains unresolved

Confidence in CJS institutions qualitatively better than theConfidence in CJS institutions qualitatively better than the past

x Community and civil society participation in crime fighting less than anticipated or needed (ISS 2007 survey)

17

Page 18: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

International Relations, Peace and SecurityC fConsolidating the African Agenda

SA success in advancing African agenda internationally and in its strategic relations

Nepad reference point for engagement with African d l t ti t d i t ti lldevelopment, on continent and internationally

X AU incorporation of Nepad delayed; insufficient SADC capacity to implement Nepad; North slow on commitmentsp y p p

Contribution to peace, and t fli t t t

X Questioning of SA creden-ti l Af i h ipost-conflict reconstruct-

ion, involving many depts.

X Regional environment not

tials as African championX Medium-term impact of

2008 violenceX Regional environment not sufficiently improved X SA business conduct?

Page 19: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

International Relations, Peace and SecurityParticipation in the global arena

Pursued commitment to Effectively to pursue foreign multilateralism and democratisation of international bodies

policy objectives, government continued to build its diplomatic presenceinternational bodies.

Membership of UNSC reflecting recognition of SA

2002 2004 2007Missions 92 105 121

build its diplomatic presence

reflecting recognition of SA status; brings opportunity to promote values

Diplomats trained 44 256

Economic diplomacy focusX Weakness communicating

SA UNSC positions in a difficult environment

Economic diplomacy focus post-2004 to ensure foreign relations promote growth difficult environment and development

19

Page 20: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

International Relations, Peace and SecurityS &South & North

Building South-South cooperation acquires new significance as countries like China, India and Brazil come to assume increasingly powerful global rolesg y p g

Building of strategic partnerships with South countries

SA participation in forums such as G8, OECD and so on helps advance the African Agenda and SA development

X Major difficulties in bedding down negotiations on issues with profound implications for SA and developing countries such as WTO Doha Round and EPAscountries such as WTO Doha Round and EPAs

20

Page 21: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

VULNERABLE GROUPSPoverty and violence

PovertyFemale-headed households get bigger than average share of social wage (HSRC study)CSG rapidly expanded and well targetedp y p gServices (esp. electricity and water) reduce domestic labour

X Affordability of electricity for heating/cooking reduces impactImmunisation, nutrition programmes improving child healthFree primary maternal health care benefits womenHIV i t i llX HIV impact especially severe on young women

ViolenceX Violence against women & children still a serious challengeX Violence against women & children still a serious challenge

Government and civil society working, mobilising together21

Page 22: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

VULNERABLE GROUPSInstitutions and employment

Legislation like Employment Equity Act; PromotionLegislation like Employment Equity Act; Promotion of Equality and Prevention of Unfair Discrimination Act, Children’s Act is addressing needs.Fo r programmes in Presidenc to foc s on needsFour programmes in Presidency to focus on needs and promote mainstreaming

By 2007, 43% of Cabinet were womenWomen hold 30% senior positions in public service

X Local govt. administration and private sector laggingg p gg g

Public sector on target for genderX Public sector below target for disabilityg yX Disproportionate unemployment of youth and women

22

Page 23: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

TRANSVERSAL POST-2004 INITIATIVESIntegration, policy review and conceptual change

Government response to experience of implementing 2004 d t i l d d j i l tti i iti ti

Integrative interventions−AsgiSA and JIPSA

mandate included major mainly cross-cutting initiatives

g−Comprehensive anti-poverty strategy−Integrated anti-crime strategy and revamp of the CJS

Economic diplomacy−Economic diplomacy−MTSF manifesto alignment; planning more aligned

Review of critical policy areas−NIPF & IPAP−Comprehensive social insurance system−Comprehensive approach to social cohesionComprehensive approach to social cohesion

Crystallisation of concepts of governance−Developmental state 23

Page 24: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

FINDINGSFINDINGS

24

Page 25: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

IMPACT OF THE STATEGGovernance

Building of institutional Problem of coordination structures & systems− Electoral system & innova-

tive participation platforms

mainly not shortage of finance or people (except in local govt) but one oftive participation platforms

− Coordinating mechanisms− Civil service transformation

in local govt) but one of skills, systems and institutionsT d f l l t t− Governance framework

(openness, corruption, financial oversight)

Trend of local protests indicates shortcomings in actual practice in

− M&E

Service delivery improve-

pparticipation platformsNeed to raise effectiveness and profile of fight againsty p

ment having some impact and profile of fight against corruption

25

Page 26: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

IMPACT OF THE STATESSocial

Substantial broadening of access to social services Well-targeted programmes to reduce poverty with regard to income, social capital and assetsRecognition of need for qualitatively different level ofRecognition of need for qualitatively different level of coordination and integration (e.g. anti-poverty strategy)

Persisting poverty and inequality reduce impact of accessMost social services need attention to quality and management of delivery: health education & housingmanagement of delivery: health, education & housingInstitutional issues for performance (clarification of functions of spheres; interdepartmental coordination)Slowdown in access to services as marginal cost rises

26

Page 27: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

IMPACT OF THE STATEEconomic

Successful policy Confluence of negative indicators evolution in changing environmentSustained macro-

shows need for faster removal of constraints to growth

Integration and coordination inSustained macro-economic stability and climate for faster

th j b ti

Integration and coordination in economic policy (fiscal, monetary & industrial)

growth, job creation and economic reformExtension and

Impact of polices limited by insufficient social partnership

Extension and consolidation of small enterprise support

Economic inclusion needs more attention – ‘massify’ successful initiatives; interrogate Secondinitiatives; interrogate Second Economy intervention model?

27

Page 28: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

IMPACT OF THE STATEC SJustice, Crime Prevention and Security

Cl t li d i iti h i i tCluster polices and priorities are having impact.Appropriate to challenges identified in first 10 years

Key challenges more difficult than anticipated:− violent and organised crime

i t t d t t i i d ti th l t− integrated strategising and action across the cluster− mobilisation of civil society and communities − operation of CJSpLegitimacy and credibility of some CJS institutions tested by public discourse & actions against senior officersCrime impacts on other areas of social endeavour – rule of law & vigilantism; economy; public morale; cohesion

28

Page 29: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

IMPACT OF THE STATESInternational Relations, Peace and Security

Advances towards most Implementing NEPAD and foreign policy objectives continued in past 5 years Significant contribution to

p gimproving the regional climate still key challenges with minimal progressSignificant contribution to

promotion of African peace and development

with minimal progressBetter alignment of political and economic diplomacy

Fruitful responses to evolution of global relations (e g China)

and stronger public diplomacyManaging narrow selfrelations (e.g. China)

Status of SA in international arena

Managing narrow self-interest and power of lobbies (e.g. Zimbabwe & EPA )EPAs)

29

Page 30: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

IMPACT OF THE STATEVulnerable groups

Democratic government has been instrumental in improving the lives of women; children; people with disabilities and youth, in many dimensionsLegislation and machinery puts government on track toLegislation and machinery puts government on track to

Constitutional obligations regarding vulnerable groups

Impact of state in reducing vulnerabilities reduced by persistent inequalitiesTh hi h b ht f lThe programme machinery has brought successful collaboration with civil society and others – but there remain challenges regarding: resources; mainstreaming; and coordination of targeted group programmes

30

Page 31: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

PUBLIC PERCEPTIONSC f f f

i t l ith

Context of public rating of government performance

Public perceptions reflect the impact of the state if we allow forinterplay with national mood & economic

Approval of govt. performance

outlook1994 1999 2004 2008

Mood – Direction of the country

Consumer Confidence Index

31

What counts are ratings of govt. averaged over cycles or short-term changes beyond cyclical variation

Page 32: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

PUBLIC PERCEPTIONSf f

Average for past 5 years 1999 2004 2008

Public approval of national government performance

Economic issues;Jobs 28 21 31Crime 35 35 42Cost of living 32 49

Economic issues; governance and crime have stayed Cost of living 32 49

Right appointments 51 44 50Inflation 38 40 52Transparency 55 48 53

crime have stayed in the bottom 10 in public rating. Transparency 55 48 53

Corruption 46 45 54Narrowing income gap 53 53 56

public rating. But most improvedpost-2004

Managing economy 49 47 62post 2004

Recently ratings on economic issues (managing the i fl ti t f li i ) d d li deconomy; inflation; cost of living) and governance declined

beyond merely cyclical movement32

Page 33: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

PUBLIC PERCEPTIONSf fPublic approval of national government performance

Social services – where the state had most direct impact th li f th h d hi h

Average for past 5 years 1999 2004 2008

on the lives of the poor – have scored high. And most increased post-2004 Average for past 5 years 1999 2004 2008HIV/AIDS 61 60 63Houses 49 59 63Police and community 60 61 64Police and community 60 61 64Land access 62 67Health services 68 64 67

The past year has seen quite big

Political Violence 57 64 68Education 63 64 71Basic services 75 73

drops for:•Land Access•Basic ServicesGender equality 72 75 78

Welfare grants 69 72 82

•Basic Services •Political Violence

33

Page 34: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

TEN YEAR REVIEW TRENDSf fMajor trends of the first decade

There has been some modification in the trends

Household unbundling has continued, apparently more

The economically active population continued to

slowly, but is likely to continue, and may be faster

grow, slower than the first decade and more in line with growth in the population

The persistence of two economies has not greatly changed; and shifts in the

with growth in the population as a whole

Internal migration to eco-changed; and shifts in the economy’s sector com-position continued mainly

Internal migration to eco-nomic centres goes on; and increased cross-border

i ti dd t thtowards non-tradable services

migration adds to the complex of social issues

34

Page 35: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

NEW DYNAMICSG

Some global trends identified in 2004 remain valid

Global context

− Uncertainty; contrary trends encouraging/inhibiting multilateralism and democratisation of the institutions of global governance; terrorisminstitutions of global governance; terrorism

Some developments with little salience in our 2004 approach will have more weight in the period ahead

− Development of India and China− Longer term shifts in the economic weight of

Af i d t Af i t iAfrica; and amongst African countries− Occasional volatility of global markets− Trends in energy food and commodity pricesTrends in energy, food and commodity prices

35

Page 36: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

NEW DYNAMICSMacro trends in the economy

Five years of faster growth exposed structural weaknesses. Most were identified for AsgiSA attention but much more has to be done to eliminate them to expand growth capacity

Structural unemployment – Jobs grew this period faster than the labour force. But SA participation is low. The shift from tradables to non-tradables is bad for low-skilled.from tradables to non tradables is bad for low skilled.Infrastructure planning – applies both to construction and maintenance, as reflected in electricity generation and distribution, water reticulation, and roads.

Private sector response – to local opportunities e.g. l d & iddl t t th d i f t temployed & middle strata growth and infrastructure

supplies; as well as in global non-traditional markets 36

Page 37: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

NEW DYNAMICSMacro-social trends

Despite declining poverty levels and 5% growth, inequalitynot reduced in recent years between racial groups (with growth); but to an extent reduced among Africans.

Distribution of the benefits of growth is affected also by existing patterns of wealth and social capital – and in particular determinants of access to the labour marketparticular determinants of access to the labour marketWith most benefit from income growth going to the upper and lowest segments, the (lower) middle stratum has benefitted least in percentage terms

The global trend towards greater inequality highlights the h ll f d t di th d f bi ichallenges of understanding the causes and of combining

accelerated growth with increasing equality 37

Page 38: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

NEW DYNAMICSMacro-social trends

Whilst some indicators show past divisions diminishing, others show social cohesion more stressed than a few years ago.

Surveys (HSRC; IJR) suggest a recent decline in public trust in public institutions over recent years beyond merely cyclical trendscyclical trendsMigration – internal and cross-border – & changes in household structure, vulnerabilities of youth and poverty are fostering human settlements with weak cohesion

Weakness in society’s value system plays a role. Persisting inequality feeds tension between acquisitive individualism and social solidarity

38

Page 39: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

NEW DYNAMICSG fGovernance and macro-organisation of the state

While the need for better state performance was acted on in many ways, major trends requiring strategic attention have manifested themselves

L iti T d i di d l l f i dLegitimacy - Trends in discourse and levels of crime erode legitimacy

Weak presence where cohesion is weak opens way for p p yundemocratic networks to capture formal institutions

Party political dynamics expose brittleness in the nascent democratic statenascent democratic state

National leadership – Working with other sectors in a state led partnership has happened less than needed forstate-led partnership has happened less than needed for impact of policies and programmes

39

Page 40: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

NEW DYNAMICSG fGovernance and macro-organisation of the state

The critical thrust has been towards integration in policy development and implementation, both in the initial building of coordinating structures and in the post-2004 initiatives

V l t di ti b d tVoluntary coordination based on consensus amongst peers has proved inadequate for the extent of coordination required to address challengesq g

Required are changes not only in programme and cluster, but in government’s central machinery, examining g y, gadvisability & practicality of fewer nodes of coordination, oversight and accountability

40

Separation of powers needs revisiting in context of cooperative governance amongst the arms of the state

Page 41: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

STRATEGIC POSTURESTRATEGIC POSTURE

41

Page 42: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

STRATEGIC POSTURE GOING FORWARDC i i l iCore issues: main conclusion

Midway in the Second Decade of Freedom, Midway in the Second Decade of Freedom, What broad t t i the foundation of the First Decade and new

initiatives have enabled SA to notch up to a faster trajectory of growth and development.

the foundation of the First Decade and new initiatives have enabled SA to notch up to a faster trajectory of growth and development.

strategic framework would enable faster trajectory of growth and development.faster trajectory of growth and development.

But it is not yet enough. The challenges proved more deep-seated than recognisedBut it is not yet enough. The challenges proved more deep-seated than recognised

government to overcome persistent or proved more deep-seated than recognised.

Success brought new challenges. The state had to learn new ways of doing things as it i l t d b t it d i i d fl ibl

proved more deep-seated than recognised. Success brought new challenges. The state had to learn new ways of doing things as it i l t d b t it d i i d fl ibl

persistent or new challenges and move to ( d t i ) implemented, but was it decisive and flexible

enough? implemented, but was it decisive and flexible enough?

(and sustain) a higher trajectory of

42

In the midst of this, the global environment has become less favourable than expected.In the midst of this, the global environment has become less favourable than expected.

growth and development?

Page 43: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

STRATEGIC POSTURE GOING FORWARDC i i l iCore issues: main conclusion

SA could continue on this path, barely denting structural ills such as i t t i l t th & kill d

SA could continue on this path, barely denting structural ills such as i t t i l t th & kill deconomic structure, massive unemployment among youth & unskilled,

inequality, poor quality in some social services & trends in violent crime. With this, society will plod on with occasional social instability

economic structure, massive unemployment among youth & unskilled, inequality, poor quality in some social services & trends in violent crime. With this, society will plod on with occasional social instability

QUESTIONIs there a possibility for a big push based on broad national

consensus propelling the totality of national endeavours towards

QUESTIONIs there a possibility for a big push based on broad national

consensus propelling the totality of national endeavours towards better social impact?better social impact?

ANSWER Depends on agency of various social actors.

ANSWER Depends on agency of various social actors. epe ds o age cy o a ous soc a acto s

Success will require a decisive state with higher levels of legitimacy, and a more cohesive society,

together prepared to pursue a common vision and make the

epe ds o age cy o a ous soc a acto sSuccess will require a decisive state with higher levels of legitimacy,

and a more cohesive society, together prepared to pursue a common vision and make the

43

g p p pnecessary adaptations and choices between priorities

when the need arises

g p p pnecessary adaptations and choices between priorities

when the need arises

Page 44: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

STRATEGIC POSTURE GOING FORWARDfElements of strategy

Speeding up growth and transforming the economy−Reshaping productive capacity to meet need for sustained−Reshaping productive capacity to meet need for sustained

accelerated and inclusive, job-creating growth−Building an economy that can take advantage of global trends

Fighting against povertyFighting against poverty −Comprehensive and integrated approach−Focused on employment and economic opportunities to promote

independence from social grantsindependence from social grants−Combining ‘pro-poor growth’ with ‘pro-growth poverty reduction’

Building social cohesionReducing inequality−Reducing inequality

−Enhancing social capital of the poor (incl. education and health)−Consolidating the legitimacy of the state (better delivery and

promoting public recognition of the authority of the state)promoting public recognition of the authority of the state)−Reducing crime and corruption including by revamping the CJS−Building a new value system

44

Page 45: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

STRATEGIC POSTURE GOING FORWARDfElements of strategy

Pursuing the values of international co-operationPursuing the values of international co-operation−Fulfilling responsibility to promote a better Africa and better world −Capacity to pursue national interest

Building a developmental stateBuilding a developmental state−Leaning towards the poor−Embedded in - but autonomous of - social forces; balancing public

participation and decisivenessparticipation and decisiveness−A strategic outlook that promotes development and enhances

legitimacy−Organisational and technical capacity to plan and implement withOrganisational and technical capacity to plan and implement, with

strengthened M&E capacity, and insisting on the highest possible standards of public service

−Able to discern when established practice must give way to boldAble to discern when established practice must give way to bold action, and to lead the nation on that path

45

Page 46: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

CONCLUSIONPublic debate and sector reviews

Towards a Fifteen Year Review seeks to asses i th tt i t f dprogress since the attainment of democracy

It is intended to contribute to the long-term planning which feeds into the direction of national developmentwhich feeds into the direction of national developmentAs such, its as much about shortcomings and challenges as it is about progress

It is in the main a review of the impact of public policy on South Africans’ quality of life

Social partners and citizens are encouraged: to give their own views on these critical matters to assess the impact of their own activities on social

46

to assess the impact of their own activities on social dynamics within our nation and beyond.

Page 47: FIFTEEN YEAR REVIEWFIFTEEN YEAR REVIEW SYNTHESIS …...9Early 1990s recession then Growth and employment 14 years of growth −2003 starts faster growth with new jobs outpacing Growth

ENDEND

47