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FIA - The Changing Needs of Private Sector

Current Uses and Future Enhancements

SAF National FIA User Group Meeting

New Orleans, LA

March 3, 2009

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Current Uses

Wood Basket Analysis – is the resource increasing, decreasing1) Set distance radii around a mill

2) Group of counties or an entire state

Supplement or Proxy Inventory Data. 1) FIA growth rates when CFI measurements are lacking

2) FIA Species or dbh distributions applied to gross inventory estimates3) FIA site index estimates

Input Data for the SRTS (Sub-Regional Timber Supply) model.

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Wood Basket Example

The Typical Situation:A new wood using facility is scheduled to open near one of our mills. The new facility will use X tons per year.

Question: How large of an impact will this new wood consumption have on our mill’s wood basket?

Strategy:Do we need to change our species mix or other procurement strategy to keep fiber costs stable.

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Wood Basket Example

Rayonier’s Jesup Mill

Location: Jesup, Georgia Products: Absorbent pulp and specialty pulp Wood consumption: 2.5 million green tons Wood species: Southern pine and hardwood Average Haul: 50 miles

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Wood Basket Example NCASI’s GForest - 75 mile radius for Jesup

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Wood Basket Example NCASI’s GForest - 75 mile radius for Jesup Volume of GS trees on timberland

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Wood Basket Example

NCASI’s GForest - 75 mile radius for Jesup Acres, Inventory, Growth, Removals

FIA cubic foot Inventory, Growth and Removals for 75 mile radius around Jesup, GA (Lat=31.645, Lon=81.855)

---------------------- Ownership ----------------------Type Nat. Forest Other Fed. State & Local Private Total

Timberland Acres Planted 0 5,000 63,000 2,828,000 2,896,000

Natural 0 305,000 152,000 3,269,000 3,726,000Total 0 310,000 215,000 6,097,000 6,622,000

Origin Partition Softwood Hardwood Total

Inventory Planted Merch Stem 2,937,820,771 52,247,046 2,990,067,817Natural Merch Stem 2,256,938,756 3,254,500,466 5,511,439,222Total 5,194,759,527 3,306,747,512 8,501,507,039

Growth Planted Merch Stem 366,675,232 5,062,212 371,737,444Natural Merch Stem 80,532,857 111,250,575 191,783,432Total 447,208,089 116,312,787 563,520,876

Removals Planted Merch Stem 261,532,211 16,865,384 278,397,595Natural Merch Stem 30,014,667 186,550,795 216,565,462Total 291,546,878 203,416,179 494,963,057

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Wood Basket Example

NCASI’s GForest - 75 mile radius for Jesup Inventory, Growth, and Removal Projection

Projected GS Volume (green tons) within 75 mile radius of Jesup, GAInventory is projected through 2015 using growth and removals + new additional harvest.

Year: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Timberland Acres 6,622,000 6,588,890 6,555,946 6,523,166 6,490,550 6,458,097 6,425,807% Loss to Other Uses 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%Tons per CuFt =0.035

Planted(Green Tons) Year: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Inventory 104,652,374 107,296,006 109,855,088 112,719,530 115,925,769 119,514,590 123,531,643

Growth 13,010,811 13,339,478 13,657,633 14,013,752 14,412,365 14,858,542 15,357,958

Current Removals 9,743,916 9,843,916 10,243,916 10,243,916 10,243,916 10,243,916 10,243,916

Harvest Reduction 0

New Harvest 100,000 400,000 0 0 0 0 0

Excess 3,166,895 3,095,562 3,413,717 3,769,837 4,168,449 4,614,626 5,114,043

Growth/Removal 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5Ratio

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Inventory Data Example

Site Index in the Adirondacks of New York.

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Inventory Data Example

Problem: Lack of site quality measures for newly acquired property in New York.

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Inventory Data Example FIA and GForest to the Rescue.

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Inventory Data Example Used the Cond table from FIADB. Calculate average site index weighted

by distance.

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The Sub-Regional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) Can provide price forecasts for many critical needs: Budgeting, acquisition analysis, harvest scheduling

Pine Pulpwood.5%/yr demand inc.

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Top 5 Needed Enhancements

1) Biomass

2) Biomass

3) Biomass

4) Carbon

5) SFI