Fertecon Sulphuric Acid Report

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  • 2013 FERTECON Limited Page 1 of 9 www.fertecon.com

    15 November 2013

    New sale to Brazil

    Negotiations in Chile close to conclusion Pasar smelter in Philippines damaged by cyclone Brazilian imports down in October and year to date

    FERTECON PRICE SERVICE PRICE INDICATIONS

    15 November 8 November Notes

    NW Europe /cfr 50-85 50-85 Q4 contracts Brazil $/cfr 45-50 45-58 Low end full cargo Chile $/cfr Mejillones (spot) 60-65 60-65 Some local sales US Gulf $/cfr (spot) 40-45 40-45 No new business Tunisia $/cfr nm nm Med $/cfr 10-25 10-25 Low end Morocco Turkey $/cfr 25-35 25-35 LIQUID SULPHUR NW Europe cpt 147-167 147-167 Q4 2013 contracts Delivered Benelux (refinery) 108-125 108-125 Q4 2013 contracts Tampa/Deliv.Cent.Fla (LT) 75 75 Q4 2013 contracts

    SULPHUR /SULPHURIC ACID PRICES

    NEW FERTECON PHONE NUMBER: +44 20 755 19790

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    11J F M A M J J A S O M D 12J F M A M J J A S O N D 13J F M A M J J A S O N

    Acid NW Europe /cfr

    Acid Brazil $/t cfrSulphur NW Europe cpt

    FERTECON 15 November 2013

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    ANALYSIS

    The acid market remains subdued with little spot buying interest, but also little export sales pressure.

    Supply is increasing in Europe with the recommissioning of the Atlantic copper smelter and this may start to influence the market in the next few months.

    In Asia the Pasar smelter was damaged in the cyclone, but this is counterbalanced by the closure of Philphos. However, the closure does leave a potential shortfall for Petrokimia Gresik in Indonesia which will now have to look for an alternative source.

    MARKETS

    MOROCCO: OCP is reported to have been bidding for acid supply below $10 cfr

    INDIA: IFFCO is believed to be in discussions with Mitsubishi for next year supply.

    Interacid will deliver 12,000 t sulphuric acid on the Iris to CIL, basis discharge 6,500 t at Vizag and 5,500 t at Kakinada eta 20 November.

    Interacid will deliver around 9,400 t sulphuric acid on the Chemstrand to CIL at Viazg in end November.

    Sterlite delivered around 7,000 t sulphuric acid on ARK Pioneer to CIL at Vizag around 26 October. This vessel has also delivered 6,69 5t to IFFCO Kandla/Kandla on 7 November

    Known acid shipments are as follows:

    Supplier Receiver Loadport/Disport Vessel 000 t Date Price Sterlite IFFCO Tuticorin/Paradeep Gem of Dahej 9.4 01-Jan

    Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Global Peace 19.5 03-Jan Sterlite IFFCO Tuticorin/ Paradeep MT Kasugta 15.2 06-Jan Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Bow Baha 20 07-Jan Quantum IFFCO S Korea/Paradeep Wawa San 19 14-Jan $57 Mitsubishi IFFCO Japan/Paradeep Fairchem Stallion 20 15-Jan $57 Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Global Peace 20 20-Jan

    Korean Zinc PPL S Korea/Paradeep AS Olivia 18.9 20-Jan $61 Mitsubishi IFFCO Japan/Paradeep Southern Hawk 13.5 29-Jan $62 Sterlite IFFCO Tuticorin/Paradeep Bunga Laurel 18 30-Jan $52 Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Caribbean Orchid 19 31-Jan

    Total January 192.5

    Korea Zinc IFFCO S Korea/Paradeep Sichem Peace 19 10-Feb $57 Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Mid Fighter 20 10-Feb Ard $60 Sterlite IFFCO Tuticorin/Paradeep Success Maralina 15 12-Feb $50 Glencore IFFCO Ppines/Paradeep Fairchem Eagle 18 14-Feb $45.75 Trammo IFFCO Japan/Paradeep Belsize Park 20 18-Feb $55 Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Caribbean Orchid 18-19 10-12 Feb Ard $50 Sterlite IFFCO Tuticorin/Paradeep Greenwich Park 10.8 08-Feb $46 Sterlite ? Tuticorin/Turkey Liquid Fortune 11 12-Feb Below $0 Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Caribbean Orchid 20 20-Feb

    ? IFFCO China/Paradeep Fairchem Eagle 22 20-Feb

    Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Caribbean Orchid 11.5 24-Feb Ard $57 Sterlite ? Tuticorin/ Turkey Greenwich Park 19 25-Feb Below $0

    Total February 204.5-205.5

    Mitsubishi PPL Japan/Paradeep Southern Giraffe 12 01-Mar Ard $66

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    Interacid IFFCO ?/Paradeep Bunga Lucerne 20 15-Mar $65 Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Shiva Chennai 20 mid Mar Ard 57cfr Sterlite IFFCO Tuticorin/Paradeep Mid Fighter 10 17-Mar

    Sterlite IFFCO Tuticorin/Paradeep Bunga Lavender 18 18-Mar Ard $38 Interacid IFFCO Japan/Paradeep Bunga Kantan Satu 18.5 25-Mar $60s cfr Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Lincoln Park 19 31-Mar Ard $58 Sterlite ? Tuticorin/Turkey Kasugta 19 31-Mar

    Total March 136.5

    Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Global Peace 19.5 08-Apr $58-59 cfr Mitsubishi IFFCO Japan/Paradep Fairchem Sabre 18.5 30-Apr Ard $61 cfr

    Total April 38

    Korean Zinc IFFCO S Korea/Paradeep Siva Singapura 18 11-May

    Trammo IFFCO ?/Paradeep Wawasan Ruby 18 Mid-May

    Korean Zinc IFFCO S Korea /Paradeep MTM Houston 18 Late May

    Total May 130

    Interacid IFFCO ?/Paradeep Lawrence Galaxy 20 05-Jun $65 Mitsubishi IFFCO ?/Paradeep Southern Bull 13 10-15 June $61 Trammo IFFCO ?/Paradeep GT Star 19 15-Jun $48.50 Trammo IFFCO ?/Paradeep Bochan Ghent 20 30-Jun $400

    Total June 72

    Quantum CIL Japan/Kakinada Chemroute Brilliant 5 02-Jul Quantum CIL Japan/Vizag Chemroute Brilliant 10.5 04-Jul Quantum IFFCO Japan/Paradeep Chemroute Brilliant 8.7 07-Jul $57

    Korea Zinc IFFCO S.Korea/Paradeep Chem Peace 18 12-Jul $55 Mitsubishi IFFCO Japan/Paradeep AF Omeria 20 14-Jul $51 Sterlite CIL Tuticorin/Kakinada Sea Charming 5 14-Jul

    Hindalco IFFCO Dahej/Paradeep Success Maralina 19 17-Jul $51.50 Mitsubishi IFFCO S.Korea/Paradeep AS Omnia 19 18-Jul c.$60 Sterlite CIL Tuticorin/Buj Buj Sea Charming 10.8 20-Jul

    Quantum CIL Japan/Kakinada Bunga Laurel 18 23-Jul $40 Interacid CIL Japan/Kakinada Colden Chie 5.3 25-Jul Interacid CIL Japan/Vizag Colden Chie 6.3 26-Jul Interacid IFFCO ?/Paradeep Sichem Contester 18.8 31-Jul

    Total July 164.4

    Trammo CIL Kakinada Rose Diamond 8 22-Aug $32 Trammo CIL Vizag Rose Diamond 10

    $32 Interacid CIL

    11

    Hindalco IFFCO Paradeep Southern Koala 19.8 22-Aug $50

    Total August 48.8

    Sterlite CIL Kakinada Farichem Kiso 10 06-Sep

    Sterlite PPL Paradeep Farichem Kiso 8 10-Sep

    Hindalco FACT Kochi High Bury Park 14.7 09-Sep Hindalco IFFCO Paradeep Harbour Clear 10.5 12-Sep

    Interacid CIL Kakinada Stellar lilac 11 12-Sep

    Sterlite CIL Vizag JL Rotterdam 10 18-Sep $28 Sterlite CIL Kakinada JL Rotterdam 3 22-Sep $28 Korean Zinc PPL Paradeep Global Peace 19 15-Sep $45 Hindalco IFFCO Dahej Laurel Galaxy 19 17-Sep $34

    Total Sept 105.2

    Trammo IFFCO Paradeep MT Hegren 19 02-Oct $mid 40s

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    Mitsubishi IFFCO Paradeep West Port 19 25-Oct $55-56 Sterlite Paradeep Princess Park 19

    INDONESIA: Petrokimia Gresiks had been is expected to buy further Philippines acid but damage to the Pasar smelter will mean it will have to look elsewhere. Petrokimia Gresik is in the market for sulphur December loading, arrival in January. It is reported to be bidding for $107 cfr against seller offers at $122 cfr.

    TAIWAN: Imports of acid in September were 7,000 t, almost all from Japan. This brought the total for the first three quarters of 2013 to 133,600 t, 8% higher than the same period of 2012. Japan supplied 141,700 t. Average customs values were $51.93/t year to date. Source; GTIS

    CANADA: Imports of sulphuric acid in January-September 2013 were 66,400 t, 15% higher than the same period of 2012, almost all from the US. Source Statistics Canada/GTIS

    UNITED STATES: Imports of sulphuric acid in September were 267,100 t, 16% higher than in September 2012. Imports January-September were 2,279,300 t, 7.6% higher than the same period of 2012.

    Average customs values were $67.27 in January-September and $67.62 in September.

    UNITED STATES: SULPHURIC ACID IMPORTS (tonnes)

    January-September September

    2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 World 1,973,059 2,118,122 2,279,319 172,288 229,895 267,092 Canada 1,312,200 1,488,610 1,567,535 141,460 151,340 183,377 Mexico 325,636 338,565 442,601 30,008 30,893 44,941 Germany 93,101 78,137 78,504 426 11,647 12,656 Sweden 1 33,227 57,217 1 17,884 18,866 Spain 54,718 36,087 41,654 4 17,818 7,022 Poland 77,702 93,999 27,195 0 0 0 Switzerland 15,076 29,094 25,604 2 0 1 Belgium 26 32 19,528 13 4 0 Chile 0 0 10,018 0 0 0 Norway 0 0 7,880 0 0 0 Taiwan 1,151 671 547 279 54 98 Japan 55 18,550 60 10 23 3 Bulgaria 18,897 1 0 0 0 0 Australia 17,826 0 0 0 0 0 Korea South 56,025 0 0 0 0 0 Others 645 1,149 976 85 232 128 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census/GTIS

    BRAZIL: Mosaic is thought to have bought a cargo from Glencore as a result of its recent inquiry. Price is rumoured to be in the low-mid $40s cfr.

    Yara and Timac are not expected back for acid until early 2014. Timac is thought to have taken a tonnage off the recent shipment to Mosaic.

    Imports of acid in October were 48,400 t, almost 7% lower than in October 2012. Imports in the first 10 months of 2013 were 393,500 t, almost 15% down on the same period of 2012. Spain was the main source, accounting for just under one third of supply.

    Average customs values were $28.40/t for January-October and $22.79/t in October.

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    BRAZIL: SULPHURIC ACID IMPORTS (tonnes)

    January-October October

    2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 World 555,482 462,232 393,544 101,885 51,913 48,389 Spain 54,580 136,893 120,642 10,300 25,823 4,000 Germany 54,332 147,605 83,861 15,562 10,502 18,832 Sweden 0 38,287 43,941 0 0 18,943 Chile 27,667 0 32,596 0 0 0 Bulgaria 57,908 0 31,197 0 0 6,613 Korea South 125,933 0 20,403 27,348 0 0 Japan 71,998 18,919 19,486 18,000 0 0 Finland 0 0 18,410 0 0 0 Poland 77,179 47,180 17,001 30,674 5,613 0 Belgium 6,304 29,829 4 0 0 0 China 19,012 5 2 0 0 0 Argentina 4,001 0 0 0 0 0 Australia 18,876 10,022 0 0 0 0 India 37,674 13,000 0 0 0 0 Italy 4 20,479 0 0 9,975 0 Others 13 11 15 1 0 1 Source: SECEX Foreign Trade Secretariat/GTIS

    According to the latest statistics from Brazils National Fertilizer Distributors Association (ANDA), MAP production was 116,176 t in October, 1% higher than September but 4% lower than October 2012. This brought January-October 2013 output to 1.07 million t, 4% lower than the 1.11 million t produced in the same period of 2012.

    TSP output was 81,562 t in October, 28% higher than September 2013 but down 4% on October 2012. This brought January-October production to 766,380 t, 2% lower than in the first 10 months of 2012.

    SSP production was 430,515 t in October, 3% higher than September 2013 but down 11% on October 2012. This brought y-t-d output to 4.28 million t SSP, less than 1% higher than January-October 2012.

    According to ANDA data, sulphuric acid production in Brazil in January-October was 3,363,400 t, 1.3% lower than in te same period of 2012.

    CHILE: Contract negotiations for 2014 continue and there are now signs of a settlement being close. There may be an agreement next week. Buyers are targeting $65-70 cfr. Producers are understood to be targeting minimum netbacks of $0 fob, with freight put at around $80.

    SUPPLIERS

    SPAIN: The Atlantic Copper smelter is finally restarting after an extended maintenance.

    PHILIPPINES: The Pasar smelter was damaged in last weeks supercyclone Haiyan (known as Yolanda in the Philippines) . Pasar said the plant sustained serious structural damage and will be down for at least 4-6 weeks. However, it is possible that it the damage could take longer to repair. The smelter had been closed as a precautionary measure ahead of the typhoon.

    The Philphos fertilizer plant, which is normally the main offtaker of Pasar acid, which was already down due to earthquake damage, has suffered another setback as it was in the direct path of the typhoon which caused structural damage to its manufacturing plant. The plant is now on total shutdown. Further, power, communication and utilities in its Isabel, Leyte, location are all down. Conservatively, it is expected that normal operation will resume within 90 days.

    SOUTH KOREA: Exports of sulphuric acid in October were 243,700 t, 18% higher than October 2012. Exports January-October were 2,333,600 t, 2.3% higher than the same period of 2012. Exports to China, the largest market, were up 22% but exports to Chile were down almost 31%

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    Average customs values in October were $27.05/t, but only $7.73 to China. Average customs values in January-October were $22.19 ($10.34 to China).

    SOUTH KOREA: SULPHURIC ACID EXPORTS (tonnes)

    January-October October

    2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 World 2,215,753 2,280,740 2,333,621 287,322 206,756 243,746 China 681,787 649,477 793,339 64,631 50,195 93,847 Chile 618,775 592,763 409,659 72,065 31,734 47,530 Indonesia 120,989 142,721 213,838 32,138 27,020 16,001 Thailand 140,163 153,919 198,247 57 22,539 8,622 Australia 78,750 189,984 194,169 15,850 32,298 16,499 India 49,603 119,154 163,308 30,700 0 0 Malaysia 117,448 65,332 81,373 10,000 0 16,303 Philippines 50,497 9,653 80,071 29,031 168 44,317 Mexico 64,798 57,472 67,209 25,302 0 0 Vietnam 53,306 70,922 45,536 7,300 8,000 11 Namibia 39,997 152,302 45,288 0 26,250 0 Brazil 118,471 0 20,405 0 0 0 New Zealand 55,052 30,111 15,407 0 8,060 0 Singapore 5,254 3,922 4,882 209 172 543 United States 20,005 0 0 0 0 0 Papua New Guinea 0 21,000 0 0 0 0 New Caledonia 0 20,999 0 0 0 0 Others 860 973 888 39 320 39 Source: Korea Customs and Trade Development Institution/GTIS

    TAIWAN: Exports of sulphuric acid in the first nine months of 2013 were 30,200, t, 40% higher than in the same period of 2012. Thailand was the main market with 18,300 and China with 6,800 t. Average customs values to Thailand were $25.72/t. (Source: GTIS)

    AUSTRALIA: The Mount Isa acid plant will be down from 14 November to 23 November. Tanks are full as the IPL Phosphate Hill fertilizer plant is down for maintenance so the opportunity is being taken to undertake maintenance on the acid plant. A spokesman for the smelter said that residents may notice a more visible plume coming from our copper stack. The spokesman said, We are working proactively on evaluating our smelting operations, as well as monitoring weather patterns during this period, to ensure there is minimal environmental impact on the community. "If unfavourable weather patterns are predicted by our Air Quality Control (AQC) centre, we will reduce our operations, as per standard practice, until conditions improve."

    CANADA: Exports of sulphuric acid in September were 183,700, t, over 21% higher than in September 2012. Virtually all the exports were to the US. Exports in January-September were 1,571,900 t, 2.3% higher than he same period of 2012. All but a small amount went to the US. Average customs values were $75.63/t in January-September and $72.95/t in September. (Source: Statistics Canada/GTIS)

    UNITED STATES: Exports of sulphuric acid in September were 14,800 t, 11.5% lower than September 2012. Canada was the largest market with 10,000 t. Exports in January-September totalled 127,800 t. Main markets were Canada 82,500 t, Trinidad & Tobago 9,800 t, Israel 6,600 t, Mexico 6,600 t, Kazakhstan 3,400 t, China 3,100 t and Curacao 3,100 t. Source US Department of Commerce/GTIS

    PERU: Exports of sulphuric acid in September were112,200 t, double the level of September 2012. All the exports were to Chile. Exports in the first nine months f 2013 were 907,100 t, 15.5% higher than the same period of 2012. Of the total, 899,000 t went to Chile, 5000 t to Ecuador and 3,00 t to Bolivia.

    Average customs values were $73.78/t in January-September and $71.01 in September. Source: Peru Customs/GTIS.

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    TURNAROUNDS JULY TO DECEMBER 2013:

    July

    KGHM Polska Miedz in Poland had scheduled a three-month maintenance programme at its Glogow copper smelter to begin mid-July. This has now been completed.

    September

    Grupo Mexico will take down its La Caridad facilities in Mexico for 55 days from September.

    Atlantic Copper has taken down its Huelva facility in Spain during September/October. Capacity is estimated to be reduced by at least 150,000 t during this period. The plant is now restarting.

    Aurubis took down its Hamburg facility in Germany for 45 days during September/October. Estimates indicate output will be down by at least 150,000 t sulphuric acid due to the outage. The plant was taken down on 2 September and was brought back into production in mid October.

    October

    Sumitomo took down its Toyo smelter for 30 days beginning at the end of October.

    November

    PPC will take its Saganoseki smelter down for 45 days planned turnaround at the beginning of November.

    COMPANY NEWS

    CANADA: Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund has announced results for the three months and nine months ended 30 September 2013. The third quarter financial statements and MD&A are available on Chemtrade's website at www.chemtradelogistics.com and on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

    Distributable cash after maintenance capital expenditures for the third quarter was $23.7 million, or $0.57 per unit (2012: $24.3 million, or $0.58 per unit), generated from revenue of $206.9 million (2012: $240.9 million). Adjusted cash flows from operating activities for the period were $32.0 million (2012: $29.9 million). The primary reason for the decrease in revenues was lower revenues in the International segment. EBITDA for the third quarter was $37.5 million compared with $35.8 million in the third quarter of 2012. Net earnings were $20.4 million compared with $10.6 million in the same period in 2012. The increase in net earnings is primarily due to fair value adjustments on the convertible unsecured subordinated debentures and an income tax recovery.

    For the nine months ended September 30, 2013, distributable cash after maintenance capital expenditures was $72.1 million (2012: $72.5 million), or $1.73 per unit (2012: $1.74 per unit) generated from revenue of $634.5 million (2012: $696.3 million). EBITDA was $108.8 million (2012: $106.8 million). Adjusted cash flow from operating activities was $91.9 million (2012: $87.6 million), and net earnings for the first nine months of 2013 were $34.7 million (2012: $23.3 million).

    Mark Davis, President and Chief Executive Officer of Chemtrade, said, "In the third quarter, our North American businesses generated earnings that were similar to the same period in 2012. Revenue was lower than last year, due to a combination of lower volumes of sulphur and of sulphuric acid and lower prices, particularly for sulphur. This weakness was partially offset by higher prices of other products in our SPPC group. Despite lower revenue, our risk-sharing business model and diversity of our portfolio enabled us to maintain consistent results for our North American operations. Although North American acid prices are moderately lower than last year, our customers' demand for product supports our belief that economic activity in North America remains firm."

    SPPC generated revenue of $151.5 million and EBITDA of $41.2 million compared with $158.1 million and $41.5 million, respectively, in 2012. The main reasons for the decrease in revenue were lower volumes of sulphur and sulphuric acid and lower prices of sulphur. This was partially offset by higher prices for certain other products within the segment relative to 2012. Despite the decrease in revenue, EBITDA was steady with last year.

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    Pulp Chemicals reported third quarter revenue of $12.0 million compared with $13.4 million in 2012 and EBITDA of $2.7 million compared with $3.0 million last year. This was due to lower sales volumes of sodium chlorate.

    International reported revenue of $43.4 million for the third quarter, compared with $69.3 million in 2012. This reduction in revenue reflected lower prices and volumes of sulphur and sulphuric acid caused by the generally weak conditions in international markets. EBITDA for the quarter was $1.9 million, compared with $3.0 million last year.

    Excluding unrealized foreign exchange gains and losses, Corporate costs during the third quarter of 2013 were $8.3 million, which was $3.4 million lower than the third quarter of 2012. LTIP expenses for the third quarter were $2.9 million lower than the third quarter of 2012.

    Mr. Davis said, "Our plants operated well during the quarter and we continue to make the investments necessary for the long-term reliability of our operations. We remain confident in our ability to meet our objectives of providing both yield and growth to our unitholders."

    Distributions declared in the third quarter totalled $0.30 per unit, comprised of monthly distributions of $0.10 per unit.

    Chemtrade confirms that it is in discussions with American Securities LLC regarding a potential acquisition of General Chemical Corp. While discussions are ongoing, no assurance can be given that a transaction will be completed or if completed, as to the terms or conditions which might apply to any such transaction.

    Mr. Davis said, "Chemtrade has a history of growing by acquisition. We have successfully acquired and integrated a number of businesses, but have backed away from many others. In evaluating transactions, we consider accretion to our unitholders, sustainability of earnings and the maintenance of our balance sheet strength."

    Noranda Income had a solid third quarter. Earnings before income taxes were $13.9 million (Q3 2012 - $8.7 million). Zinc metal production was 61,331 ts (Q3 2012 - 60,615 t). Zinc metal sales were 66,420 t (Q3 2012 - 60,953 t). Sulphuric acid netback remained strong at US$73/t (Q3 2012 - $79/t)

    PER AGRICULTURE

    CROP FUTURES: Crop prices, with the exception of wheat, have increased strongly since last week. The November USDA WASDE report had lower than expected corn production and stocks and this has firmed the market. The WASDE also indicated lower than expected soybean stocks and this has helped firm prices. Wheat stocks were forecast much higher than expected and this influenced forward prices, resulting in a sharp fall.

    CME CROP PRICES cents/bushel

    Product Price Nov/Dec 2013 Weekly Change

    Price March 2014

    Price Sept 2014

    Price Nov 2012

    Corn 429.6 +10.8 440.2 461.4 725.6 Wheat 675.0 -29.6 655.4 669.6 848.6 Soybean 1,263.0 +56.6 1,292,2 1,210.6 1,432.6 Rough Rice 1,575.0 +49.5 1,576.0 1,464.0 1,438.0 Prices are Wednesdays closing rates for the forward months indicated. The 2012 price in the final column is the forward price reported one year ago

    WORLD/US: The US corn crop will be a record-setter - 30% bigger than last year's drought-shortened harvest - that results in the largest ending stocks since 2006. In its first crop forecast in two months, the USDA estimated the crop at 13.989 billion bushels (355.3 million tonnes), marginally lower than traders expected. USDA's estimate for corn ending stocks was well below market expectations, though, as bumper exports and animal feed use whittle down the record supply.

    The USDA in October cancelled its monthly crop report, the first time it failed to issue a monthly forecast since 1866, after the 17-day government shutdown halted work on the collection of field data.

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    The US soybean crop would be the third-largest on record at 3.258 bn bushels, 1% larger than the analysts expected, USDA said. It estimated ending stocks of 170 million bushels, close to the 172 million t expected by analysts. In global terms, with a crop of 88.66 million t, the US is once again the world's largest soybean grower, edging out Brazil's 88.0 million t - a record for that South American country.

    US wheat ending stocks were forecast for 565 million bu (15.4million t), well above expectations of 516million t bushels. Higher flour extraction rates reduced demand for food wheat.

    The USDA raised its forecast of the corn crop by 1% from its previous report as higher yields offset smaller harvested area. Corn was forecast to yield an average 160.4 bushels an acre, nearly 2.5 bushels more than traders expected. "Higher yields are forecast this month across the Plains, Corn Belt, and South," it said.

    "Total corn use is raised 275 million bu, offsetting much of the supply increase," said USDA. It boosted its estimate of exports by 175 million bu and feed use by 100 million bu.

    For soybeans, the USDA raised its crop estimate by 3% from its previous estimate and 7% above the 2012 crop. World oilseed production was also forecast at a record high for 2013/14.

    The gargantuan crops have already pulled down futures prices. Chicago corn futures last week traded at the lowest point in more than three years, but the USDA suggested that the sell-off could go further.

    It forecast the lowest farm-gate price for corn in five years, an average of US$4.50 per bushel. US corn and soybean prices set record highs during last year's drought.

    Friday's forecast was based on November 1 conditions, a point when 59% of corn and 77% of soybeans were harvested. Corn and soybeans are the two most widely grown US crops.

    Abundant crops will help hold down food prices, which are forecast to rise by 2% this year and by 3% in 2014, close to the 20-year average of a gain of 2.8% annually.

    USDA sharply increased its corn ending stocks forecast for China this month, reflecting an 8 million t crop in projected "food, seed and industrial" usage." That increase in stocks fed through to global corn carryout as well, which rose almost 13 million t. (Source: www.agra-net.com)

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