Fermi Questions

20
Fermi Questions How to Know What You Know

description

Presentation slides for Ignite Salt Lake 2011 on Fermi Questions. It's kind of fluffy without the talk behind it, but there it is.

Transcript of Fermi Questions

Page 1: Fermi Questions

Fermi Questions

How to Know What You Know

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And Do Something About It

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why?

understand and contribute

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why?

deal with a gazilion bits of daily information

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who?Enrico Fermi

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what?

• Piano tuners in Chicago? 125• Jelly beans in a liter jar? 240• Extraterrestrial civilizations in the

galaxy? 2.31 

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not really

but kind of

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useful before you

put a gazillion hours into a project

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how?

specific question

simple questions

add it up

check for sanity

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how?

specific questions

simple questions

add it up

check for sanity

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how?

specific questions

simple questions

add it up

check for sanity

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how?

specific questions

simple questions

add it up

check for sanity

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A Good Sanity Check

Monte Carlo Methods

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Run it a Gazillion Times

Then Add It Up

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Think in Ranges

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Doesn't Have to Be Mathy

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Poll of 5

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Go Wild

• How long until a cure for cancer?• How many people have Maple

Syrup Urine Disease?• How many people might buy my

product?

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Go Wild

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Support and Attributions

Practice and Sharehttp://openmobi.us

• Slide 5: Enrico Fermi by Argonne National Laboratory CC BY-NC-SA 3.0

• Slide 9: Focus by ihtatho CC BY-NC 3.0• Slide 11: question marks by Gillian Maniscalco 

CC BY-SA 3.0• Slide 16: Albert Einstein by Thomas Thomas CC BY-NC 3.0• Slide 17: Mosaic by Leo Reynolds CC BY-NC-SA 3.0