Female education, female income and the next child in West Germany and Great Britain
description
Transcript of Female education, female income and the next child in West Germany and Great Britain
Female education, female income and the next child
in West Germany and Great Britain
Michaela Kreyenfeld and Cordula Zabel
”The growth in the
earning power of women
…is the major cause of
….the large decline in
fertility. "
Gary S. Becker 1993
A Treatise on the Family, Cambridge
”One of the most consistent
findings …is a negative
relationship between
women’s education and
fertility."
Charles Hirschman 1994
Annual Review of Sociology
Education and Fertility
Education and Fertility
Empirical Research on Macro Level• Evidence that negative macro level correlation between female
employment and fertility has weakened (Ahn and Mira 2002).
Empirical Evidence on Micro Level• Consistent evidence that highly educated women have higher
second and third birth risks:
Germany: Huinink (1995)
Sweden: Berinde (1999) or Hoem (1996)
Norway: Kravdal (1992), (2001)
Austria: Hoem et al. (2001)
Hungary: Olah (2003)
France: Köppen (2004)
UK: Smallwood (2004)
Denmark: Harhoff et al. (2007)
1. Theoretical Considerations
Is the high fertility of highly educated women a
statistical artefact?
2. Britain and West Germany
2.1 Two contrasting welfare states
2.2 General fertility development
3. Empirical Results
3.1 Data, variables, method
3.2 Event history models on higher order birth risks
Structure
Is the high fertility of highly educated
women a statistical artefact?
Theoretical Considerations
Empirical Evidence
• There is consistent evidence that highly educated
women have higher second and third birth risks:
Huinink (1995), Berinde (1999), Hoem (1996), Kravdal (1992,
2001), Hoem et al. (2001), Olah 2003, Smallwood (2004), Köppen
(2004), Harhoff et al. (2007)
• All these studies have in common that they relied on
an event history framework.
Theoretical Considerations
# 1: Time-Squeeze Hypothesis
• Highly educated women have higher birth risks, because they space their children close together.
• Reasons for the close spacing are:
- an age-related „time-squeeze“
- „work-accelerated childbearing“ (Ni Brochain)
The birth rates are higher for highly educated women. However, the final progression to the next child is the same as for other women.
Theoretical Considerations
# 2: Work-Characteristics Hypothesis
• Highly educated often work in jobs that offer better possibilities to combine work and family life.
• They are often employed in the public sector, which is more conducive to the compatibility of work and family life than the private sector.
The birth rates are higher for highly educated women, because of an omission of work-characteristics in the models.
Theoretical Considerations
# 3: Partner Hypothesis
• Assortative mating is common in many countries.
• Highly educated women more often have highly educated partners who have the earning potential to afford a larger family.
The birth rates are higher for highly educated women, because of an omission of partner characteristics.
Theoretical Considerations
# 4: Selection Hypothesis
• Women at risk of second birth have already given birth to a first child.
• Highly educated women who choose to have one child are a selective group of people who are
- particularly family orientated
- particularly good at arranging day care
Highly educated women are a select group of people with special (unobserved) characteristics. These (unobserved) characteristics explain their high second and third birth rates.
Theoretical Considerations
Hypotheses
1. Time-squeeze: Highly educated women need to accelerate the transition to the second/third child.
2. Work Characteristics: Highly educated women more often have secure jobs in the public sector.
3. Partner Effect: Highly educated women more often have highly educated partners who have the earning potential to afford a larger family.
4. Selectivity: Highly educated women at risk of second or third birth are a select group of people.
….or a “true” income effect?
Great Britain and West Germany
Welfare States and Fertility Development
Liberal-Market Regime
Conservative- FamilialisticRegime
Inco
mpa
tibili
tyChi
ld c
are
mar
ket
Total Period Fertility Rate Total Cohort Fertility Rate
Source: Council of Europe 2005, Statistisches Bundesamt 2007
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
1.6
1.4
West Germany
Great Britain
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1930 1940 1950 1960
West Germany
Great Britain
1.9
1.5
Fertility Development
Family Size Distribution by Birth Cohort
Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations
West Germany Great Britain
15% 18%
25% 22%
41% 37%
13%15%
6% 8%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1940-49 1950-59
10% 14%
12%14%
46%42%
24% 20%
8% 10%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1940-49 1950-59
4+ children
3 children
2 children
1 child
Childless
Fertility Development
Transition to First Birth by Age of Woman (Life Table Estimates)West Germany Great Britain
0%
50%
100%
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Cohort 1960-69
Cohort 1950-59
Cohort 1940-49
0%
50%
100%
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Cohort 1940-49
Cohort 1950-59
Cohort 1960-69
25 30 25 27
Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations
Fertility Development
0%
50%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Age of second child
Transition to Second and Third Birth (Cohorts 1950-1969)
2nd Birth 3rd Birth
0%
50%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Age of second child
West Germany
Great Britain
West Germany
Great Britain
Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations
Age of first child
Fertility Development
Empirical Results
Data• German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2005)
• British Household Panel Survey (1991-2004)
Method• Piecewise-constant event history model
Dependent Variable• Second pregnancy (duration in months since last birth)
• Third pregnancy (duration in months since last birth)
Data, Method and Variables
Independent Variables
• Age of previous child Age 0-1, 1-2, 2-3 etc.
• Age at first birth Age 16-20, 20-25 etc.
• Calendar period 1984-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000 etc.
• Marital Status Married, cohabiting, single, divorced/widowed
• Ethnicity/Nationality Foreigner/German (SOEP), Foreign born/native (BHPS)
• Sex of previous children Girl(s), boy(s), mixed
• Employment status Full-time, Part-time employed, not employed
•
Data, Method and Variables
Independent Variables
• Education No degree (no vocational or university degree)
Vocational degree
University degree
• Partner Education No degree (no vocational or university degree)
Vocational degree
University degree
• Sector Public sector
Private sector
• Income Gross labor market income, deflated and categorized
Data, Method and Variables
Sample Size
BHPS SOEP
Second Births
Respondents 903 2,763
Events (second births) 455 1,195
Third Births
Respondents 1,131 3,609
Events (third births) 205 488
Data, Method and Variables
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+
Age of previous child
Age of Previous Child (Absolute Risks in 1,000)
2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks
West Germany
Great Britain
West Germany
Great Britain
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+
Age of previous child
Results
Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.
Age at First Birth (Relative Risks)
2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks
West Germany
Great Britain
0
1
2
3
16-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-45
Age at first birth
West Germany
Great Britain
0
1
2
3
16-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-45
Age at first birth
Results
Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age at first birth, education, age of previous child
Sex Composition of Previous Children (Relative Risks)
2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks
0
1
2
all girls all boys mixed
Sex of previous child
West Germany
Great Britain
Great Britain
West Germany
0
1
2
girl boy
Sex of previous child
Results
0
1
2
married cohabiting single separated
Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age at first birth, education, age of previous child
Marital Status (Relative Risks)
2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks
West Germany
Great Britain
0
1
2
married cohabiting single separated
West Germany
Great Britain
Results
Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.
Female Education (Relative Risks)
West Germany Great Britain
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.98 1.29**
Vocational 1 1
University 1.42*** 1.58***
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.88 0.85
Vocational 1 1
University 1.52*** 1.48
Time Squeeze?
Results
0
1
2
3
4
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+
Age of previous child
Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, sex of previous children.
Second Birth Risks: Is there a Time-Squeeze?
West Germany Great Britain
No degree
University
Vocational
No degree
University
Vocational
0
1
2
3
4
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+
Age of previous child
Results
Third Birth Risks: Is there a Time-Squeeze?
West Germany Great Britain
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+
Age of previous child
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-6 6-8 8+
Age of previous child
UniversityVocationalNo degree
Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, sex of previous children.
UniversityVocationalNo degree
Results
Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.
Female Education (Relative Risks)
West Germany Great Britain
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.98 1.29**
Vocational 1 1
University 1.42*** 1.58***
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.88 0.85
Vocational 1 1
University 1.52*** 1.48
Work Conditions?
Results
Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.
Female Education (Relative Risks)
West Germany Great Britain
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.87 0.76*
Vocational 1 1
University 1.49*** 1.79**
Employment Status
Full-time 0.72** 0.42***
Part-time 0.91 0.55***
Not employed 1 1
Sector
Public 1.29* 0.73
Private 1 1
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.95 1.26*
Vocational 1 1
University 1.47*** 1.70***
Employment Status
Full-time 0.68* 0.45*
Part-time 1.15 0.70
Not employed 1 1
Sector
Public 1.14 0.97
Private 1 1
Results
Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.
Female Education (Relative Risks)
West Germany Great Britain
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.98 1.29**
Vocational 1 1
University 1.42*** 1.58***
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.88 0.85
Vocational 1 1
University 1.52*** 1.48
Partner Effect?
Results
Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.
Female Education (Relative Risks)
West Germany Great Britain
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.80 1. 28*
Vocational 1 1
University 1.30* 1.21
Male Education
No degree 0.98 1.21
Vocational 1 1
University 1.36*** 1.98***
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.87 0.83
Vocational 1 1
University 1.42** 1.67**
Male Education
No degree 1.04 1.10
Vocational 1 1
University 1.16 0.68
Results
Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children.
Female Education (Relative Risks)
West Germany Great Britain
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.98 1.29**
Vocational 1 1
University 1.42*** 1.58***
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.88 0.85
Vocational 1 1
University 1.52*** 1.48
Selectivity?
Results
Female Education (Relative Risks)
West Germany
2nd birth 3rd birth
Female Education
No degree 0.97 1.26**
Vocational 1 1
University 1.38** 1.53***
Place lived at age 15
Small town 1 1
Medium town 0.82** 0.84
Big city 0.88 0.69**
Father religious?
Protestant 1 1
Catholic 0.89 1.33
Not religious 0.62 0.97
Other 1.01 1.62
Results
Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age of previous child, sex of previous children.
Female Income and the Next Child
0
1
Notemployed
Part-time lowearnings
mediumearnings
highearnings
West Germany
Great Britain
2nd birth risks 3rd birth risks
0
1
Notemployed
Part-time lowearnings
mediumearnings
highearnings
Great Britain
Results
West Germany
• Strong effect of partner‘s education on higher order birth risks.
Great Britain
• Elevated second and third birth risks for university educated women can partially be explained by “time squeeze”
• Work conditions matter (public/private sector)
• Very high female income matters for higher order birth risks.
Conclusion
Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung
www.demogr.mpg.de