Sheet1Population Projection model (females)Table 1: Base population and Components of changeBase year population (2001)FertilityMortalityMigrationSurvival ratios or proportion surviving to next age groupAgeTotal births 2001ASFRsAgePopulationMigrantsAnnual net migration, females by age 2001Age Structure of Net Migration (proportions)0.01845Births0.981550.000260-459,3280-40.999740.9998710870.011890.000355-944,3895-90.999650.9998315640.017100.0005910-1427,90510-140.999410.9997128260.030900.0007615-1930,1895,4390.1801615-190.999240.9996273090.079920.0029520-2470,94722,6130.3187320-240.997050.99853119750.130940.0123725-2971,84128,0600.3905925-290.987630.99382200530.219270.024330-3459,60516,5090.2769830-340.975700.98785173450.189660.0383535-3939,4089,2350.2343435-390.961650.98083129050.141110.053740-4422,1371,2770.0576840-440.946300.9731549090.053680.094545-4912,4053710.0298745-490.905500.9527526790.029290.1528850-548,29550-540.847120.9235649020.053600.2278655-595,35855-590.772140.8860715430.016870.2390160-643,20760-640.760990.8805010820.011830.3193465-691,98565-690.680660.840337180.007850.339170-741,23770+0.660900.830455570.0060975+1,045Total459,281TFR7.441891,4541.00000Table 2 Projected BirthsTable 3 Projected SurvivorsAge20102015202020252030Age20062011201620212026e.g age group 0-4 in 2001 yields survivors aged 5-9 in 2006, while those aged 70+ yields survivors aged 75+ in 2006. The figures for 2006 are obtained by multiplying the 2001 population at each age by the corresponding survival ratio. And 2011 is 2006 population * survival ratioBirths: dependent on information in Table 5 so will contain zero cells until Table 5 is completed. To calculate projected births to women aged 15-19 in the five years to 2006: find the average number of women in the age group 15-19 during 2001-2006. Multiply by the average ASFR.5-959,313212,459227,026233,550277,74210-1444,37360,242213,335227,896234,41815-1927,27135,37750,549126,604202,07115-1927,88945,71461,574214,576229,12920-2485,66258,39572,72599,546233,99720-2430,16630,33748,14963,996216,88225-29149,438125,09391,777109,286142,05625-2970,73836,44936,62054,37970,18030-34102,476128,804111,75388,420100,68230-3470,95280,19346,32946,49764,03735-3965,939102,155123,888109,81390,55235-3958,15786,23895,25462,21262,37740-4410,25318,80127,37332,51729,18640-4437,89770,34097,344106,01474,24045-492,8035,6499,83714,03816,55945-4920,94846,33977,040102,594110,79950-5411,23322,75345,74473,54496,68355-597,02711,40721,16640,64264,19260-644,1378,48411,86619,40134,43965-692,4404,0587,3669,94015,67470-741,3512,2283,3305,5817,333Total births75+1,5082,5063,7455,2927,802443,843474,274487,903580,225815,104448,129719,747995,8861,266,1161,565,928Table 4 Net migration: Projected SurvivorsAge20152020202520302035Total80,00080,00080,00080,00080,000Decide the total net migration for each 5-year time, and type the figure at the top of ech column. E.g 250 000 every five years or 50 000 every year. Here net migration refers to that of persons aged five years and over at the end of th eperiod; migrant children born in the interval are treatd here as part of natural increase. Table 3 includes births both to the existing population and to migrant women. The total net migration is distributed across the age groups by multiplying the total net migration for the period by the proportion in each age group. Finally the estimated migrants in each age group are multiplied by the survival ratio of migrants to obtain the numbers surviving at the end of the interval.5-995195195195195110-141,3681,3681,3681,3681,36815-192,4712,4712,4712,4712,47120-246,3916,3916,3916,3916,39125-2910,46010,46010,46010,46010,46030-3417,43317,43317,43317,43317,43335-3914,98814,98814,98814,98814,98840-4411,07211,07211,07211,07211,07245-494,1794,1794,1794,1794,17950-542,2332,2332,2332,2332,23355-593,9603,9603,9603,9603,96060-641,1961,1961,1961,1961,19665-6983383383383383370-7452852852852852875+4054054054054050.0Table 5: Base population and Population ProjectionsAge2010201520202025203020350-459,328212,514227,085233,610277,814390,2765-944,38960,263213,410227,976234,500278,69310-1427,90545,74161,610214,703229,264235,78615-1930,18930,36048,18664,045217,047231,60020-2470,94736,55736,72854,54070,388223,27425-2971,84181,19746,90947,07964,83980,64030-3459,60588,38597,62663,76263,93081,47035-3939,40873,145101,226110,24277,20177,36540-4422,13748,96981,412108,416117,08785,31245-4912,40525,12750,51881,219106,773114,97850-548,29513,46524,98547,97775,77798,91655-595,35810,98715,36725,12644,60368,15260-643,2075,3339,68013,06220,59735,63565-691,9853,2744,8928,19910,77316,50770-741,2371,8792,7563,8576,1097,86175+1,0451,9132,9114,1505,6978,207(70+/)2,2823,7925,6678,00711,80516,067Total459,281739,1111,025,3001,307,9641,622,3982,034,672source: adapted from Don Rowland (2003) Demographic methods and concepts.Oxford: Oxford University Press

Derive the female population aged 0-4 in any year from the total births for that year from Table 2. Eg. In 2006=1395676. To get which are the female births (rather than total births), assume a sex ratio e.g 105and multiply the total births by the ratio (100/205) to get only the female births. Multiply this by the survival ratio for births.Obtain the projected population aged 5-9 in 2006 by adding together the corresponding cells in Table 2 and Table 4 and copy down formula.

Sheet2

Sheet3