Federalism - CREBAcreba.ph/pdf/Federalism-ProfOlivar.pdf · Philippines has been left behind...
Transcript of Federalism - CREBAcreba.ph/pdf/Federalism-ProfOlivar.pdf · Philippines has been left behind...
Federalism T U N A Y N A P A G B A B A G O
2 5 t h C R E B A A n n u a l N a t i o n a l C o n v e n t i o n
B a g u i o C i t y , 1 4 O c t o b e r 2 0 1 6
Presentation Outline
1. How are we doing? 2. Where should we go? 3. How do we get there? 4. Implications for PH real estate sector
Left behind
Country
Rank (1= poorest, 185 = richest)
Singapore 183
Brunei 182
Malaysia 141
Thailand 106
Indonesia 83
Philippines 63
Vietnam 60
Laos 58
Myanmar 55
Cambodia 43
Other Asian countries have progressed steadily, while the Philippines has been left behind by one after another of its neighbors. •2015 Rankings on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per Capita. Posted by Global Finance
In the whole of Asia, the Philippines is unique for being the only country to fail to halve poverty in 25 years, from 1990 to 2015.
Source: UNESCAP, 2015. From Atty Rita Linda Jimeno, Member, 2005 Consultative Commission
Unsettled times
UNSETTLED POLITICAL SITUATION:
• Insurgency • Moro Rebellion • Social Unrest (due to injustice, poverty, corruption, political
warlords and dynasties, and failed agrarian reform)
HukBaLaHap/HMB CPP/NPA Political Warlords Failed Agrarian Reform
Real GRDP/Capita (in millions PhP) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average
Region
2009-2014
NCR 162.32 171.44 173.06 181.75 195.07 203.13 181.13
Luzon 45.16 47.24 47.49 48.82 50.60 52.51 48.64
Visayas 37.33 39.53 40.76 41.68 43.35 44.75 41.23
Mindanao 33.79 34.91 35.52 37.67 39.35 41.51 37.12
Average 69.65 73.28 74.21 77.48 82.09 85.48
High 162.32 171.44 173.06 181.75 195.07 203.13
Low 33.79 34.91 35.52 37.67 39.35 41.51
Source: PSA, ChartPoints and Bloomberg
Real GRDP/capita (in millions PhP)
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NCR Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Presentation Outline
1. How are we doing? 2. Where should we go? 3. How do we get there? 4. Implications for PH real estate sector
One proposed change: from Unitary to Federal
Malacañan decides how much to give to local
governments.
In Federalism, states can make decisions with little
interference from national government.
What is Federalism?
A form of government where sovereignty is constitutionally shared between a central authority and states or regions National government focuses on national interests such as foreign relations, national security, and monetary policy
Autonomous regions or states will be responsible for delivery of public goods and social services and local economic development.
1) EMPOWERMENT : It will empower our citizens
to become more involved in government decisions at the local level. They will be more willing to pay taxes to finance government programs and services that they can directly create and oversee.
AdvAdvantages of “the federal idea”
2) BETTER DECISION-
MAKING : It will improve the ability
of local government executives to quickly make decisions that respond to their unique circumstances. Over time, we will bring up a better class of leadership.
AdvAdvantages of “the federal idea”
3) GREATER
ACCOUNTABILITY: It will bring government
officials closer to their constituencies, strengthening oversight. Over time, platform and performance will replace personality-based politics.
AdvAdvantages of “the federal idea”
4) HEALTHY
COMPETITION: States or regions will have
to compete with each other to attract domestic and foreign trade, investment and credit. Over time, good performers and policies will prevail over bad ones.
AdvAdvantages of “the federal idea”
6) DIVERSITY AMID UNITY: The federal idea ensures a just and enduring framework for peace among the various ethnic, religious, and cultural communities. The legitimate interests of Moros and other indigenous peoples will be addressed and protected.
AdvAdvantages of “the federal idea”
6) DECONGEST METRO MANILA: Manila will become decongested as the different regions catch up in economic growth and employment opportunities. This catching-up will also propel us for the first time towards genuine self-sustaining growth as a country.
AdvAdvantages of “the federal idea”
Presentation Outline
1. How are we doing? 2. Where should we go? 3. How do we get there? 4. Implications for PH real estate sector
Advantages of the Federal System of Government
In a federal system of government, states (or
regions) will have the power to exercise taxation and
keep the revenues for themselves, remitting only
their respective contributions to the national government.
CENTRAL
LGU
Rebalancing gov’t responsibilities
• Primary service responsibilities (National)
– What services can only be provided by the National
Government? (e.g. Defense)
• Secondary service responsibilities (Shared)
– What services does the National Government have a
significant interest in but are best delivered by a lower
unit of government? (e.g. Education, Health)
• Tertiary service responsibilities (Local)
– What services are of primary concern to local
communities? (e.g. Policing, Agriculture, Fire Protection)
DAI/Facilitating Public Investment (FPI) Project
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Redefining taxation and fiscal transfers
• Primary National Government Services <= Federal Tax
• Secondary National Government Services <= Conditional Grants
• Tertiary National Government Services <= Block Grants
• Limited Scope Special Infrastructure Transfers
• Transfers to Improve Fiscal Management DAI/Facilitating Public Investment (FPI) Project
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Sharing taxation powers Tax/Level Federal States Counties
Natural Resource Taxation (Profits) Policy X Administration/Collection X
Customs Duties Policy X Administration/Collection X
Corporate Income Taxation Policy X Administration/Collection X
Personal Income Taxation Policy X Administration/Collection S S
Value Added Taxation Policy X Administration/Collection X
Sales Taxation Policy X Administration/Collection S S
Excise Taxation Policy X Administration/Collection S S
Natural Resources (Royalties, Fees, X Charges, Severance Taxes) Policy S S Administration/Collection
Presumptive Taxation Policy S S Administration/Collection S S
Property Taxation Policy S S Administration/Collection X
Index X = Sole responsibility S = Shared Responsibility
DAI/Facilitating Public Investment (FPI) Project
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Presentation Outline
1. How are we doing? 2. Where should we go? 3. How do we get there? 4. Implications for PH real estate sector
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Issues
•Continuing restrictions on land ownership by
foreigners (not just in PH but also in other ASEAN
countries like Indonesia and Myanmar). These may
limit full positive impact from freer cross-border
investment flows post-ASEAN integration.
Legal and
political
•BSP concern that industry is dominated by
conglomerates controlled by less than a dozen
families, most of whom have aggressively borrowed.
Industry
structure •Low-income housing deficit projected by SHDA to hit
5.8 MM by 2030.
•Possible oversupply at the high-end of residential
market. BSP supposed to release new “housing price
index” in 2015 to monitor overheating.
•Poor physical infrastructure hampers proper matching
of property supply and demand.
Supply-
demand
imbalances
Sources: Wall Street Journal; Lamudi; MyProperty.ph
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Outlook
•PH will lead ASEAN in real estate market growth.
•“There is no truth to the rumor that there will be a
real estate bubble!” – Eduardo Ong, Chair, Board of
Real Estate Service
Philippines
•MM dislodged Madrid to join JLL Top 30 list in 2014.
•From 28th largest city GDP in the world in 2010, MM
will rise to 25th place in 2020 and 18th place in 2030.
•MM far more geared to IT than its regional peers.
Ranked 10th in Tech-Rich Cities global index for
1Q’15, above San Diego, Osaka, Munich, and Beijing.
•MM real estate market has one of the highest
absorption rates in Asia, and is still one of the most
affordable in the world.
Metro Manila
Sources: CBRE 2015 APAC Real Estate Markets Outlook; PWC/ULI Asia Pacific Report 2015; JLL Global 300 Index report , 2014
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Opportunities (2015)
• Puregold and Vista Land will invest Php 3.5 BN
and PhP 15 BN respectively to expand into
retail over the next 5 years.
• Megaworld has doubled to 20 the number of
township projects in its national portfolio
Investment
niches
• New “business hubs” like the PhP 1.5 BN
development in Palayan City, Nueva Ecija.
• Developers expanding into Cavite, Batangas,
Laguna, and other provincial cities as Metro
Manila becomes saturated.
Provincial cities
• Prospective new office demand from ASEAN
companies expanding into PH
• ASEAN brands entering PH retail market, eg
H&M’s first mall in 2014.
ASEAN
integration
Sources: Wall Street Journal; Lamudi; MyProperty.ph
Regionalization of real estate sector (1)
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• One international airport per state?
• More seaports on long PH coastline
• Improvement in access infrastructure, eg “last
mile connectivity” from tourist access point to
tourist destination
Infrastructure buildout
• New provincial hubs will drive the creation of
interstate value chains, whether in agricultural
processing, manufacturing, or services sector
• Growth of suburbs
Business expansion
and demographic
shifts
• Will a new constitution allow states to permit
majority land ownership by foreigners?
• FDI policies could then become a competitive
tool of states
Lift foreign investment
restrictions
Regionalization of real estate sector (2)
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• No more one-size-fits-all national land use code
that is hostile to real estate and commercial
development
• Land use policies become still another
competitive tool of states
Land use policies
and administration
• Strong and autonomous states can provide
credit support to mortgage instruments during
rollout of primary and secondary markets
• The Bangsa Moro state can serve as conduit for
other states into the billion-dollar regional
Islamic finance market
Mortgage finance
market
• More creative policy responses will come from
state- and lower-level housing development
agencies, eg exemption for low-income housing
bonds from state and municipal taxes
Low-cost housing
backlog