Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook

Matt HourihanAugust 7, 2013for the AAEA, C-FARE and the USDA Economist Group

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Trends in R&D by Agencyin billions of constant FY 2013 dollars

ARRA Funding

All Other

USDA

NSF

NASA

DOE

NIH

DOD

Source: AAAS Report: Research & Development series.FY 2013 and FY 2014 figures are latest estimates.1976-1994 figures are NSF data on obligations in the Federal Funds survey. © 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Life Sciences / GDP

Physical Sciences/GDP

Engineering / GDP

EnvironmentalSciences / GDP

Math / Comp.Sciences / GDP

Federal Funds by Discipline asPercent of GDP, FY 1970-2012

Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2010 and 2011 data are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0.00%

0.02%

0.04%

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

0.12%

0.14%

0.16%

0.18% Bio Sciences / GDP

Environmental Bio /GDP

Agricultural / GDP

Medical / GDP

Other Life Science /GDP

Federal Funds For Life Sciences asPercent of GDP, FY 1978-2010

Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. GDP figures are from OMB.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

-9.5%-6.8%-6.6%-6.6%-6.4%-5.2%-5.0%-4.6%-4.5%-4.5%-4.2%-4.0%-3.8%-2.5%

5.5%60.8%

-6.5%

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Other DODTransportation

NASAAgriculture

EPANIH

DOE ScienceDOD S&T

US Geological SurveyDOE Energy Programs

Other HHSNSF

DOE AtomicsVA

NISTDHS

TOTAL

Estimated FY 2013 R&D: Appropriations and Sequester Outcomes

percent change from FY 2012

Source: AAAS estimates based on agency R&D data and budget documents, appropriations documents, and OMB sequester analyses.© 2013 AAAS

DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Estimated FY 2013 R&D Funding

Agency / Dept

Nominal Cut from FY12

Nominal Percentage Cut from FY12

Resulting Budget On Par With…

Total R&D $9.3 billion -6.5% 2002

Defense S&T $619 million -4.6% 2002

NIH $1.6 billion -5.2% 2002

Energy* $479 million -4.4% 2001

NSF $227 million -4.0% 2010

NASA $749 million -6.6% Late 1980s?

Agriculture $154 million -6.6% 1998

*Includes Office of Science, Energy Programs, and NNSA

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Admin FY 2014 R&D Priorities Innovation / Science

Clear shifts from D to R (especially use-inspired + applied), and from Defense to Nondefense

COMPETES Agencies: $12.6 billion (+18% from 2012)

Advanced manufacturing (NIST + elsewhere)

Clean Energy

Homeland Security (Biodefense facility)

Rolling back sequestration Every agency would receive major increases above FY13

post-sequester levels

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

FY 2014 R&D - USDA $2.5B for R&D (+8.2%)

Boosts for intramural and extramural alike ARS: +15.8% from FY12

Bulk of increase: Southeast Poultry Disease Research Lab

Research programs: +2.3%

NIFA: +6.1% (not including Biomass R&D)

Agriculture and Food Research Initiative: $383m (+45%)

• Land and water resources, obesity, climate adaptation, safety and sustainability, etc

ERS, Forest Service R&D: at or below inflation

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

-2.9%-11.1%

-8.6%-5.4%-3.0%-2.4%-1.9%-1.4%

2.3%4.2%5.4%

10.0%10.8%

21.0%23.7%

44.6%181.7%

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

TOTALDOD Other

DOD S&TEPAVA

NIHDOT

NASADOE Science

USDANSF

Other HHSDOE Defense

NISTNOAA

DOE EnergyDHS

R&D in the FY 2014 Budgetpercent change from FY 2012 (INFLATION ADJUSTED)

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.© 2013 AAAS

DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

-14.8%

-8.2%

-7.8%

-7.3%

20.2%

66.5%

88.4%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Defense Activities

Agriculture

Health (NIH)

Environment Agencies

General Science (NSF, DOE SC)

Commerce (NIST)

Applied Energy Programs

R&D Changes by Function Since 2004percent change from FY 2004 to FY 2014, in constant FY 2013 dollars

Source: AAAS Research and Development series, OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%ARS

ERS

NIFA (previouslyCSREES)

Forest Service

Trends in USDA R&D Budgets, FY 2004-2014FY 2004 as base year

Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in AAAS Research and Development series. FY 2013 figure is an estimate. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Congress So Far Two budgets:

Pre-sequester: President’s Request and Senate

$1.058 trillion

Post-Sequester: House (and current law)

$967 billion

R&D funding decisions so far (mostly) reflect these differences

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Congress So Far (Cont) Areas of (rough) agreement:

Defense (including DOE), Homeland Security, planetary science, Veterans-related R&D, STEM reorganization

Areas of (rough) disagreement general support but divergent funding: NSF, NIST, NASA

exploration systems and technology, DOE Office of Science

Clearly different priorities: clean energy R&D, natural resources and environmental science

Unknown: NIH

USDA: Divergent, but not getting cut in House like other programs

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

ARS Request Current Approps

Ag Research Service R&Dmillions of constant FY 2013 dollars

Source: AAAS R&D reports, agency budget documents, and appropriations reports. FY 2011 does not include $230 million rescission of ARS budget authority. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities.© 2013 AAAS

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

Other NIFA AFRI

Other NIFA-Request AFRI - Request

Other NIFA - Approps AFRI - Approps

Nat'l Institute of Food and Ag R&Dmillions of constant FY 2013 dollars

Formerly CSREES. Source: AAAS R&D reports, agency budget documents, and appropriations reports. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Looking Ahead Congress now on recess and the clock is ticking

4 bills through House, none through Senate

Big question still remains: how do fit a $1.06 trillion budget into a $967 billion dollar hole? Senate: make the hole bigger

House: make the budget smaller

Almost certainly headed for a CR

Debt ceiling

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

For more info…

mhouriha@aaas.org

202-326-6607

www.aaas.org/spp/rd/