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Transcript of February 2015. Market Intelligence – Core Products TEAM MEMBERS TEAM MEMBERS WHERE WE FIT IN WHERE...
February 2015
Market Intelligence – Core Products
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
Market Intelligence – MI Portal
Market Intelligence has launched its MI Portal, that can be accessed by Lloyd’s Managing Agents via Secure Store. Visit https://secure.lloyds.com
MI Portal
The MI Portal contains detailed and tailored* analysis for each Managing Agent.
The MI Portal currently contains:
AnalysisMarket Insight Reports (Brazil & Indonesia) that highlight the size of the prize for Lloyd’s in these markets and provides detailed forecasts of the opportunity by line of business. (Future reports include Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Malaysia and the UAE)
Profiles50 local insurer / cedents and broker profiles covering high level financial information, strategy and key classes / segments. (Mexico, India, China, Brazil and Turkey)
Managing Agent Compare Countries*Detailed premium & loss ratio statistics that are tailored to each Managing Agent. (*Tailored Excel dashboard will be hosted securely during Q1 2015 for subscribing Managing Agents)
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
Visit www.lloyds.com/MIPortalfor further detail on access.
Market Intelligence – Team Members
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
TBC, Market Intelligence ManagerEmail: TBCFocus: Team Leader / Product Development
Lara Green, Soft Intelligence ExecutiveEmail: [email protected] Focus: Country Roundups Development & Roll Out, Blogs
Francesca Thompson, Graduate TraineeEmail: [email protected]: Compare Countries Enhancements, Market Presentation & Class Review
George Delis, Analytics SpecialistEmail: [email protected] Focus: Compare Countries / MI Portal
Chris Brown, Market Development & Intelligence Analyst, AmericasEmail: [email protected]: Americas / Italy / Spain / Class Review / Engagement Strategy / MI Surgery Sessions
Tom Grace, Market Development & Intelligence Analyst, Asia PacificEmail: [email protected]: Asia Pacific / South Africa & Ireland / V25 Strategy
Elizabeth Vinning, Apprentice Email: [email protected] Focus: Class Review Lite Roll Out, Market Presentation
Henry Laurie, Graduate TraineeEmail: [email protected]: Compare Countries Enhancements, Market Presentation & Class Review
Clare Anelay, Graduate TraineeEmail: [email protected]: Compare Countries Enhancements, Market Presentation & Class Review
Sandra Zukowska, Junior Analyst, Europe (start on 02 March 2015)Email: [email protected] Focus: Europe
Market Intelligence – Where we fit in…
CRYSTAL
CRYSTAL provides Lloyd's market
participants with access to international
regulatory & taxation requirements
www.lloyds.com/crystal
MARKET ANALYSIS & BUSINESS
INTELLIGENCE
MARKET ANALYSIS & BUSINESS
INTELLIGENCE provide analysis on past, present and future performance of syndicates and the
market www.lloyds.com/stats
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
provides Lloyd's market participants with information on
international insurance markets from a Lloyd’s
perspective
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
Market Intelligence – Schedule
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
Compare Countries•Lloyd’s data once a year for annual update of premiums by 1 July; loss ratios to be shared with MAs no sooner than 1 January (i.e. 1 year lag)•Insurance market statistics: once a year; driven by local sources (regulator, association or third party such as SNL)•Macro statistics are updated once a year for all third party sources (apart from Business Monitor forecasting pilot)
Country Profiles•Lloyd’s data: updated once a year for annual update of premiums by 1 July•Country Development Plan once a year for annual update in early Q1 (ideally in December each year)•Insurance market statistics: once a year; driven by local sources (regulator, association or third party such as SNL)•Macro statistics / Political information can be updated when needed; but at least once a year
Market Presentations: •Schedule determined between Phil McCarty & Country Manager; update once a year> short term schedule as per : www.lloyds.com/marketpresentations
Class Review•Update once a year; ideally in time for Market Presentation where available; otherwise driven by regulatory local stats update•We are striving to have Class Reviews for all Lloyd’s core markets (i.e. where we have a Country Manager)
Country Roundups•PDF / Email one pager: not more often than once a quarter; dependent on demand from Country Manager and type of market (i.e. there are more developments in large developing market such as China than in mature markets such as Scandinavia)
© Lloyd’s 2012
One-stop shop for country stats(Economic Trends, Insurance Market Size by Class & Lloyd’s Premium Trends by Detailed Class)
* Based on Emails, Telephone Calls, Surgery Session with around 150 Market Participants in 2012/2013
WHAT OUR MARKET SAID*…
Visual Representation(Ability to see trends using via visualisation tools)
Raw data(Ability to download raw data for own analysis)
> MARKET INTELLIGENCE SOLUTION
Compare Countries Tool launched Macro Stats (e.g. from IMF (2000-2019)) Insurance Market Stats (around 60) Lloyd’s detailed premium trends (2000-2013)
for 200+ territories
Google Motion Chart
Raw Data in Excel
www.lloyds.com/CompareCountries
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE) Excel Dashboards
© Lloyd’s 2012
2015 DEVELOPMENTS
www.lloyds.com/CompareCountries
Enhancing Insurance Data Adding loss ratios and local insurance classes (as per regulator / association) for Lloyd’s Managing Agents (phased roll out starting in December 2014; adding more enhanced forecasting that include sector forecasts)
Enhancing Lloyd’s Data Adding further dimensions (where appropriate) for Lloyd’s Managing Agents(phased roll out starting in Q1 2015)
Managing Agent Compare CountriesManaging Agents will receive their own data vs Lloyd’s total for benchmarking analysis
Shared via the MI Portal (i.e. not hosted on lloyds.com) (phased roll out starting in Q1 2015)
https://secure.lloyds.com
MI Portal
MI Portal is designed for sharing sensitive and tailored Market Intelligence with Managing Agents
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
Managing Agent Appetite Business development communication channel with Lloyd’s Country Managers Capture Managing Agent appetite by class of business/territory/distribution
(business case to be built in 2015)
© Lloyd’s 2012
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AREAS
www.lloyds.com/CompareCountries
Forecasting table to include “soft intelligence” moderatorsIn addition to the forecast that are based on modelling, soft intelligence views could be included. Accordingly, there are a number of various forecasting steps.
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
Actual Insurance Market Data
ProjectedInsurance Market Data
Projection based on constant penetration rates and IMF GDP forecasts up to 2019
Live
Actual Insurance Market Data
ForecastInsurance Market Data
Econometric Model Forecast based on sector forecasts from Business Monitor International for 40 territories up to 2025
Q2 2015
Actual Insurance Market Data
Forecast & Soft Intelligence moderated
Insurance Market Data
Econometric Model Forecast based on sector forecasts from Business Monitor International for 40 territories up to 2025
+
Opportunity to reflect local soft intelligence views that moderate upwards or downwards the Econometric Model forecast.
TBC
© Lloyd’s 2012* Based on Emails, Telephone Calls, Surgery Session with around 150 Market Participants in 2012/2013
WHAT OUR MARKET SAID*…
www.lloyds.com/Countryprofiles
Standardised Country Fact Sheet(Quick summary of Lloyd’s business, insurance markets and macroeconomic indicators; Lloyd’s licence)
Latest update on economy & political situation in key markets(Ability to see latest economic & political analysis)
List of top insurers/cedants, key classes & Lloyd’s stats by country(Top market players, classes of business, Lloyd’s business profiles by class, office contact details)
> MARKET INTELLIGENCE SOLUTION
Country Profiles launched(54 Country Profiles on the world’s top insurance markets)
Economic & Political Summary(Partnership with Global Insight allows the team to concentrate on insurance market analysis)
Key Insurance & Lloyd’s stats(Top Market Players, key classes of business, Lloyd’s business snapshot & summary of Lloyd’s Country Development Plan)
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
Country Profilebr azilwww.lloyds.com/BrazilMI
June 2014
© Lloyd’s 3
Insurance: No (with exceptions)
Reinsurance: Yes, as an admitted reinsurer
Coverholders: No
LLOYD’S TRADING POSITIONBrazil
www.lloyds.com/crystal
All data, sources & data limitations are available for download at www.lloyds.com/comparecountries; * 2013 total non-life based on CAGR projection
Percentile Rank (1-100) 2012 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basisin International $ bn
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basisin International $
GOVERNANCE INDICATORS SIZE OF ECONOMY WEALTH PER CAPITA
Premiums in US$ m
TOTAL NON-LIFE DIRECT INSURANCE MARKET* NON-LIFE DIRECT INSURANCE MARKETPremiums in US$ m; by OECD Class
LLOYD’S GROSS SIGNED PREMIUMSGross Signed Premiums in US$ m; by country of origin
KEY STATISTICS
29
9
39
8
50
3
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2006 2012 2018f
VE CL BR
11,1
45
13
,48
0
15
,51
6
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2006 2012 2018f
VE CL BR
4,034
6,684
717
650
405984Motor
PA & Health
Property
Liability
MAT
Miscellaneous
CL BRVE
Chile BrazilVenezuela2012
87 50Government Effectiveness 13
Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism
18 59 48
Control of Corruption 7 91 56
Regulatory Quality 5 93 55
Rule of Law 1
Voice and Accountability 22
88 52
80 61
10
,13
5
13
,47
4
15
,66
4
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2011 2012 2013
VE CL BR
Brazil2012
US$ 27.4bn 13
4
99 10
1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013
VE CL BR
© Lloyd’s 4
The largest public protests in 20 years will shape the political agenda for remainder of presidential term. During the June 2013 football Confederations Cup, the largest public protests since 1992 occurred throughout Brazil. A five-point plan presented by the government will be seen as a commitment by President DilmaRousseff to address the protesters' demands on corruption, public transportation, health, and education. Congress also seems to be prioritising bills related to these issues. Ultimately, however, legislators' personal interests will prevail. This means there will be further corruption cases and resistance to any far-reaching political reform proposals.
The FIFA World Cup and presidential election will be the main focus through mid-2014. There will be little legislative activity from early June onwards, as Brazil focuses on the football World Cup through to mid-July and then on campaigning for the October presidential election through the third quarter of 2014. Government effectiveness and image is likely to be tested by social protests during the World Cup period. That could affect Rousseff’s popularity ratings, which fell sharply after the June 2013 protests, and makes a second-round run-off more likely, although Rousseff remains favourite for re-election.
The Brazilian economy is moving very slowly. Our latest forecast calls for Brazil's GDP to expand 1.9–2.4% in 2014 before accelerating to 3.0–3.3% in 2015. An aggressive stance by the central bank against inflation may help improve business sentiment and investment. Interest rates in Brazil are now similar to 2012 levels, so there is no room for the government to save on interest payments or to execute fiscal stimuli without hurting public finances significantly. We should not expect a major boost from government spending, even though 2014 is an election year; the possibility of a fiscal spree (political business cycle) under tight fiscal conditions has become one of the major risks for the Brazilian economy for 2014. Investment will be the driver of the forecasted modest growth in 2014.
High levels of taxation and bureaucracy undermine Brazil's competitiveness. Despite increased investor confidence in the economy, security concerns and operational risks – such as high levels of government bureaucracy, an over-complicated tax system, insufficient investment in infrastructure, and shortcomings in the educational system – continue to restrain Brazil. The government's programme to accelerate economic growth seeks to prioritise investment in infrastructure projects, and some progress has been made on other fronts. Nevertheless, many challenges remain.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)(nominal GDP levels in billion US$; Real GDP change)
For daily updates visit: > www.ihsglobalinsight.com
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT INFORMATION(provided by IHS Global Insight, May 2014)
TOP-10 SECTORS (BY VALUE ADDED)(value added in billion US$ & 2014 Change in real %)
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
7.5%
2.7%
1.0%
2.1% 2.3%
3.3%3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
TOP SECTORS2013 Value Added
2014 Percentage
Change
1. Public Admin. & Defense 167.2 3.6
2. Wholesale trade 154.2 4.2
3. Sanitation, trade organizations 151.0 3.3
4. Construction 108.5 4.5
5. Agriculture 104.6 3.1
6. Hotels & restaurants 89.1 3.3
7. Retail trade - total 87.2 2.5
8. Education 83.2 3.5
9. Real estate 77.1 3.1
10. Mining of metals & stone 71.3 -1.6
Top-10 Total 1093.4
© Lloyd’s 2012
www.lloyds.com/Countryprofiles
2014 DEVELOPMENTS
Country MI pages which contain all available MI on one page
Country MI pages now available: www.lloyds.com/marketintelligence > Pick a Country
1COUNTRY ROUNDUPS & MI ANALYST DETAILS
2 COUNTRY SNAPSHOT& OFFICE DETAILS
3ALL AVAILABLE MI CORE
PRODUCTS FOR THIS MARKET
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
© Lloyd’s 2012* Based on Emails, Telephone Calls, Surgery Session with around 150 Market Participants in 2012/2013
WHAT OUR MARKET SAID*…
www.lloyds.com/Marketpresentations
Detailed insurance & Lloyd’s business trends & outlook(Analysis of premium development in territories where Lloyd’s has a Country Manager)
Summary of key opportunities & challenges for Lloyd’s in market(A Lloyd’s perspective on how our market performs locally)
Outline of local Market Development Initiatives & Events(Summary of key local initiatives and local Lloyd’s events)
> MARKET INTELLIGENCE SOLUTION
Market Presentation launched(Market Presentations covering 28 markets held annually & hosted on lloyds.com)
Business Class & distribution trends(Local intelligence coupled with detailed analysis of soft & hard intelligence tailored to specific markets)
Opportunities for Lloyd’s(Key pointers for who & what to target; meet the Lloyd’s Country Manager & peers from the market)
MANAGING AGENTS & LLOYD’S BROKERS CAN SIGN UP TO BE ON INVITE LIST: www.lloyds.com/misignup
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
© Lloyd’s 2012* Based on LMA Working Group + Surgery Sessions during 2012 / 2013
WHAT OUR MARKET SAID*…
www.lloyds.com/ClassReview
Class of business premiums & loss trends by territory(Specialist class of business premium & loss trends by geography)
Comparison of Lloyd’s premiums & loss ratios trends (Class of business premiums and loss trends by geography)
> MARKET INTELLIGENCE SOLUTION
Class Review built with LMA Support(Panel of underwriters used to devise reports in 2010 for US E&S Market)
Class Review roll out for key territoriesTop 4 E&S Markets, Total US, UK, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, China, India,Japan, Canada, Australia, South Korea
Further commentary added to paint fuller picture(China also includes further commentary in addition to merely stats, this has been applied to any updates or new Class Reviews since)
SIGN UP TO BE ALERTED ON NEW RELEASES: www.lloyds.com/misignup
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
© Lloyd’s 2012
WHAT OUR MARKET SAID*…
www.lloyds.com/CountryRoundups C SIGN UP TO BE ALERTED ON NEW RELEASES: www.lloyds.com/misignup
Local intelligence from Country Managers(Local news including key news from cedants, local brokers, service companies & coverholders)
“Plugged into key local industry and Lloyd’s events”(Ability for Managing Agents to be notified of key events)
> MARKET INTELLIGENCE SOLUTION
Country Roundups launched(Local news summary sourced from the participating offices were launched for Europe (10) and extended to Asian offices (4) in 2013)
Total universe of 4,000+ sign ups (A marketing list of around 4k+ contacts has been built up since its launch in Q1 2012; sign ups are by geography, which allows Country Managers to target messages to an audience of underwriters & brokers who are interested in a specific territory.
Provides a direct channel to CMs(Provides Country Managers (CMs) with a list of “clients” they can target for Market Development Activities)
Receive notification for new Market Intelligence(Ensuring that Managing Agents & Brokers are notified of material MI updates – i.e. Class Review)
* Based on Emails, Telephone Calls, Surgery Session with around 150 Market Participants in 2012/2013
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
© Lloyd’s 2012
www.lloyds.com/CountryRoundups C
2014/2015 DEVELOPMENTS
Redeveloped webpage to turn stories into searchable content
Launched Market Intelligence LinkedIn page at> www.lloyds.com/LinkedInMarketIntelligence
Seek market feedback on further development (March 2015)
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
© Lloyd’s 2012
https://secure.lloyds.com
2014 DEVELOPMENTS (1 of 3)
Launch of MI Portal via Secure Store (July 2014)
1
Log into via Lloyd’s
Authentication Framework (LAF)
2
Click Secure Store
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
© Lloyd’s 2012
https://secure.lloyds.com
2014 DEVELOPMENTS (2 of 3)
Log into MI Portal via Secure Store (July 2014)
3 Click Market
Intelligence – by Country
4Download
Market Insights Reports
(“Analysis”)
5Download
Broker / Insurer Profiles
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
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WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
6Download
Managing Agent Compare
Countries*
Tailored premium stats for each Managing Agents
Managing Agent Lloyd’s benchmarking statistics
*To be released in phases during October 2014
Managing Agent Appetite capture mechanism to be implemented in 2015
© Lloyd’s 2012
https://secure.lloyds.com
2014 DEVELOPMENTS (3 of 3)
Managing Agent Compare Countries (phased roll out in Q1 2015)
Compare your Managing Agent with that of Lloyd’s along:
PREMIUM TRENDS* by Country of Origin (where policyholder is based)
Lloyd’s detailed classes (Airline XL, Energy Offshore, Professional Indemnity… etc.)
Region / Country (Asia Pacific, South-Eastern Asia, Malaysia… etc.)
Method of Placement (To be explored)
TEAM MEMBERS
WHERE WE FIT IN
COMPARE COUNTRIES
COUNTRY PROFILES
MARKET PRESENTATIONS
CLASS REVIEW
COUNTRY ROUNDUPS
WHERE TO FIND US
MI PORTAL (SECURE STORE)
View your Managing Agent SYNDICATE BUSINESS FORECAST
View collected LOCAL MARKET PREMIUM, CLAIMS AND LOSS RATIOS (where available) (in phases)
PREMIUM TRENDS by platform View aggregated LLOYD’S PLATFORM figures (Singapore, Japan** and China**) (**TBC)
INCURRED LOSS RATIOS* by Country of Origin
Lloyd’s detailed classes (Airline XL, Energy Offshore, Professional Indemnity… etc.)
Region / Country (Asia Pacific, South-Eastern Asia, Malaysia… etc.)
! *Premiums & Loss Ratios will only be shared for cuts where more than 9 Syndicates write business, premium is greater than US$ 1m and the largest syndicate does not write more than 50% of that cut.
PREMIUM TRENDS* by Risk Location
Country (Asia Pacific, South-Eastern Asia, Malaysia… etc.)
QUESTIONS [email protected]
STAY INFORMED www.lloyds.com/MISignup
Market Intelligence – Where to find us
MI CONSULTANCY* [email protected]
*MI Consultancy Sessions can be held at Lloyd’s for Syndicates & Lloyd’s Brokers or in their respective London offices
VISIT OUR WEBSITE www.lloyds.com/MarketIntelligence
TEAM MEMBERS
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JOIN OUR LINKEDIN PAGE www.lloyds.com/LinkedInMarketIntelligence