FEAST Higher trophic level model
description
Transcript of FEAST Higher trophic level model
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FEAST Higher trophic level model
NPZ-B-DLower trophic
level
ROMSPhysical
Oceanography
Economic/ecological model
Climate scenarios
BSIERP Integrated modeling
Observational Data
Nes
ted
mod
els
BEST
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Goal• Provide forecasts of future population
trajectories of walleye pollock under anticipated climate warming; complement the vertically-integrated modeling effort
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Projections of Key Environmental Parameters for the Bering Sea: Empirical Downscaling from Global Climate Models
Nick Bond1, Franz Mueter2, Muyin Wang1, Anne Hollowed3, Carol Ladd4 1 Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, UW2 School of Fisheries & Ocean Sciences, UAF3 Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA4 Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA
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PredationSpatial
distribution
BiomassConsumption
ratePrey
composition
Spring conditions (Late) summer conditions
Prey
Timing of ice
retreat
SpringSST
Prey
Summer SST
Wind mixin
gStabilit
y
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Variables considered• Timing of ice retreat
– Date when average ice cover on southeast Bering Sea shelf first decreases below 20% (updated from Mueter et al 2006)
• Spring transition– Proxy for onset of thermal stratification based on change
in SST (NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST, Smith et al. 2008)
• Late summer SST– Mean Jul-Sep SST (NOAA ERSST) over shelf
• Summer wind mixing– Mean May-July wind mixing
(NCEP reanalysis, Kalnay et al. 1996)
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Variables considered (cont’d)• Water column stability
– Mooring 2 observations & proxy based on1-D model estimates
• Predation pressure (1977-2008)– Index of pollock predation based on consumption
rate and average prey composition in early 1990s estimated in Aydin et al (2007)
• Spatial distribution (juveniles, adults)– Anomalies in spatial distribution based on
summer trawl survey (Spatial EOF/PCA)
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Summer Bottom Temperature Parametric Term p-value ---------------------------------------- SLP (Winter) 0.453 SLP (Spring) 0.047 Ice Cover 0.012 Ice Retreat 0.022 Wind Mixing (JJ) 0.926
August Mixed Layer Depth Parametric Terms p-value ----------------------------------------- SLP(Spring) 0.633 Unimak Pass Wind 0.358 Ice Retreat 0.685 SST (May) 0.838 Wind Mixing (JJ) 0.136
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Estimated effects of summer SST & predation on log-recruitment
8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5
89
10
11
Summer SST, age-0
log
-re
cru
itme
nt
1000 1500 2000 25008
.59
.09
.51
0.0
11
.0
Predation, age-0
log
-re
cru
itme
nt
R2 =0.44P = 0.001
Prediction interval
Simulate effect of increase in average SST on recruitment at three levels of predation
Low Med High
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0e+0
02e
-05
4e-0
5
Observed recruitment1977-2007
0e+0
02e
-05
4e-0
56e
-05
Simulated recruitment(0.5 C warming)
0e+0
02e
-05
4e-0
56e
-05
8e-0
5
Simulated recruitment(1 C warming)
0 10000 30000 50000
Pro
bab
ility
Age-1 recruitment (millions)
Predicted distribution of pollock recruitment under 0.5oC and 1oC warming (relative to 1977-2001)
Assuming predation equal to 1977-2007 mean (dashed):
With 0.5 oC warming: 10% decline in median R 31% exceed ‘77-’07 average R
With 1 oC warming: 30% decline in median R 19% exceed ‘77-’07 average R
o
o
Median R
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H3: Winners and losers
Piscivorous fish abundance will increase.
Competition with abundant, piscivorous fish will lead to a decline in murres, kittiwakes and fur seals.
Growing populations of humpback and fin whales increasingly will both consume and compete with forage fish (including juvenile pollock) for zooplankton.
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Bering Sea SST (JAS) - B1 Scenario
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mean
SS
T (
JAS
)
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Bering Sea SST (JAS) - A1B Scenario
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mean
SS
T (
JAS
)
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Bering Sea SST (JAS) - A2 Scenario
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mean
SS
T (
JAS
)
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Pollock Recruitment (A1B Scenario)
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
log
(R)
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Number of Model Runs Indicating Collapse
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2
4
6
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14
1 2 3 4 5 6
Decades
2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s > 2050
Time of collapse based on 6-year running mean of recruitment estimated fromSST (constant predation) falling below 10% of present day median value
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Summary and Next Steps• Late summer/early fall conditions during larval
stage are best predictors of recruitment• Simulations suggest a considerable reduction in
average recruitment of walleye pollock under moderate warming
• Recruitment model will be revisited; potential predictors such as stratification may be added
• All of the sources of uncertainty (model, regional factors, global climate) will be quantified
• Projections will be made available for MSE