FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS COPS – DWD Contributions Hans-Joachim Koppert, Michael Baldauf,...
-
date post
20-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
222 -
download
4
Transcript of FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS COPS – DWD Contributions Hans-Joachim Koppert, Michael Baldauf,...
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
COPS – DWD Contributions
Hans-Joachim Koppert, Michael Baldauf, Michael Denhard, Werner Wergen
Deutscher Wetterdienst
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
OverviewOverview COSMO-K
GoalsCase Studies & VerificationStatus
NinJo PEPS
BackgroundImplementationMicro PEPS
Data-Assimilation Issues
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
COSMO-K COSMO-K (formerly known as LMK (formerly known as LMK LLokal-okal-MModell-odell-KKürzestfrist)ürzestfrist)
Goals Development of a model-based NWP system for very short range (‘Kürzestfrist’) forecasts (18 h) of severe weather events on the meso- scale, especially those related to
deep moist convection (super- and multi-cell thunderstorms, squall-lines, MCCs, rainbands,...)
interactions with fine-scale topography(severe downslope winds, Föhn-storms, flash floodings, fog, ...)
GME (global)x = 40 km368642 * 40 GPt = 133 sec.T = 7 days
COSMO-E (Europe)x = 7 km665 * 657 * 40 GPt = 40 sec.T= 78 h
COSMO-K (regional)x = 2.8 km421 * 461 * 50 GPt = 25 sec.T = 18 h8 forecasts / day
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
Convectively enhanced frontal precipitation, 1.10.2006, 18 UTC
Obs.: up to 20 mm/12 h
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
LAF-ensemble, 1h-precip.-sum, target time: 1.10.2006, 18 UTC
0 + 18 h 3 + 15 h 6 + 12 h
9 + 9 h 12 + 6 h 15 + 3 h
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
Convectively enhanced frontal precipitation 1.10.2006, +06-30 h
(from 0 UTC & 12 UTC-run)
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
Problem: missed convection initiation in LMK 11.09.2006
other examples: July 2006
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
Sept. 2006
Oct. 2006
Synop-VerificationRMSE of wind speed |v|10m
LMK LME
0 UTC-runs 12 UTC-runs U. Damrath
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
Synop-Verification of pre-operational LMKGusts and Precipitation, 01.-31.Oct. 2006, 12 UTC-runs
LMK LME
ETS
TSS
Gusts
Precipitation
Precipitation: July ‘05: TSS generally higherSept. ‘06: LMK higher TSS due to LHN, Oct. + Nov. ‘06: LMK mostly higher TSS (FBI ~ equal)Dec. ‘06: LMK smaller TSS (no LHN?)
Gusts: ETS generally higher (but sometimes also higher FBI)
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
COSMO-K in pre-operational use since 14.08.2006 18 h- (21 h-) forecasts are simulated every 3 h (LAF-
ensemble) explicit simulation of deep moist convection with its life cycle
generates good predicitions of precipitation in the case of synoptic forced events(e.g. lines of thunderstorms)
dynamical effects better represented due to higher resolution strong downslope winds lee waves (e.g. improved glider forecasts)
radar observations of the DWD-radar network have an essential influence on the initial state(improved precipitation forecast for the first ~ 4..5 h)
Status and Summary COSMO-KStatus and Summary COSMO-K
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
NinJoNinJo NinJo is an international Workstation project
Partners are: MeteoSuisse, DMI, MSC
Focus on Supporting Process Weather Forecasting Base Functionality
Data decoding Data storage 2D-display of all data types needed for operations
Smooth 3D-extension currently worked on, prototype exists Interactive and batch ( this summer ) processing Chart-based display with zooming and panning Diagram-based display: time series, cross sections, tephigramms Data display in different layers Animation and automatic updates
Meteorological Functionality Interactive chart generation ( fronts etc. ) “On Screen” analyses Weather monitoring and warning generation
Old workstation system is currently phased out
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
NinJoNinJoSupported Data TypesSupported Data Types
Surface and upper air observations Synop, Ship, Metar, Temp ….
Grid GME, COSMO, ECMWF, HIRLAM,
GEM, GFS, Satellite
Geostationary satellite Polar orbiters
Radar SCIT Storm cell and identification
Lightning Different networks
Geo data Vector Raster
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
NinJoNinJoThe ApplicationThe Application
The main window Multiple scenes Layers Basic operation
bar Zoom, pan,
measure , reproject, print …
Layer bar Layer specific tool
bar Layer specific
menu bar Animation bar
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
NinJoNinJo - - DiagramsDiagrams
A COSMO-E (LME) sounding With several derived parameters
( CAPE .. ) Available interactively for every
point on the map and every model that’s in the database
A COSMO-K (LMK) Cross-Section Works with model and p-surfaces 2D-cross sections ( wind, temperature, clouds, …. ) 1D- cross section ( hourly rainrates, T2m… )
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
NinJo-StatusNinJo-StatusKarlsruhe and HohenheimKarlsruhe and Hohenheim
NinJo servers and clients availableSoftware installed by Consultant (paid by DWD)Single server installation Currently runs on data provided by DWD and routed
through FU BerlinSupply through DWDSAT also possible
2MBit satellite data streamObservations ( surface, Upper air, lightning, radar … ) and model
dataSubsampled GME and COSMO-E, no COSMO-K
Prepared for additional data e.g. COSMO-KAdditional data needed ( e.g. Konrad ) has to reported
– FTP based supply has to be set-up well in advance– Band-widths issues ?
Standard operational DWD-installation, based on NinJo 1.22
Still low-cost alternative JavaMAP
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
European regional multi-model ensemble SRNWP-PEPS
Combines the most
sophisticated operational
limited area models
in Europe
the ensemble size depends on location
ensemble size
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
SRNWP-PEPS …. used to generate warnings of extreme events
Output variables (surface fields only) Total precipitation Total snow Maximum 10 m wind speed Maximum 10 m wind gust
speed 2 m temperature relative humidity 2m global radiation at surface
Products:Ensemble meanProbabilities of
exceeding thresholds+18h and +30h
6 AM and 6 PM
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
Participating ModelsParticipating Models
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS [%]
ensemble mean
observations
probabilities RR >50mm
[mm]
24h precipitationrun: 22.08.05 0 UTC, available: 22.08.05 6:05 UTC valid: 22. 8. - 23. 8., 6 UTC
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
Output variables: tigge+ list
Models:
model hor. res. institution
COSMO-CH2 2,2 MeteoSwiss
ITA-LM 2,8 CNMCA
COSMO-LAMI 2,8 ARPA-SIM
COSMO-K 2,8 DWD
MOLOCH 2,2 ISAC-CNR /
ARPAL-CFMI
AROME 2,5 Météo-France
GEM-LAM 2,5 Environment Canada
Time schedule: March dry-run : Thu 29.03 - Wed 04.04
April: set up of MICRO-PEPS
April dry-run : Tue 24.04 - Mon 30.04
4 5 6 7 8 9
ensemble size
MICRO-PEPS
FE 1 Koppert et al., DWD4COPS
ScenariosScenarios for Data Assimilation for Data Assimilation
Real time• Experiment data are available for
operational runs
• Impact studies in delayed mode by excluding data from experiment
• Pro: Potentially better operational forecasts, direct feedback from monitoring
• Con: More difficult to monitor and need for extra delayed mode assimilations because of incomplete coverage
Delayed mode
• Operational runs only use standard observations
• Impact studies in delayed mode by including data from experiment
• Pro: More controlled set-up and easier monitoring, complete data set
• Con: No impact on operational forecasts
Common requirements
Detailed list of experimental stations for blacklist and possibly whitelist.Distribution of data in agreed formats and in known ways