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FCD CWI

The Foundation for Child Development Index of Child Well-

Being (CWI)1975 to 2004 with Projections for 2005

A Social Indicators Project Supported by the Foundation for Child Development

Draft Brookings Presentation for January 25, 2006

Kenneth C. Land, Ph.D., Project Coordinator

Duke University

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FCD CWI

What is the CWI?

• A composite measure of trends over time in the quality of life, or well-being, of America’s children and young people.

• It consists of several interrelated summary indices of annual time series of 28 social indicators of well-being.

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FCD CWI

The Objective of the CWI:

• To give a sense of the overall direction of change in the well-being of children and youth in the United States as compared to 1975.

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FCD CWI

The CWI is designed to address the following types of questions:

• Overall, on average, how did child and youth well-being in the United States change in the last quarter of the 20th century and into the present?

• Did it improve or deteriorate, and by how much?

• In which domains or areas of social life?

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FCD CWI

• For specific age groups?

• For particular race/ethnic groups?

• For each of the sexes?

• And did race/ethnic group and sex disparities increase or decrease?

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FCD CWI

Methods of Index Construction• Annual time series data (from vital statistics and sample

surveys) have been assembled on some 28 national level indicators in seven quality-of-life domains.– Family Economic Well-Being

– Health

– Safety/Behavioral Concerns

– Educational Attainments

– Community Connectedness

– Social Relationships (with Family and Peers)

– Emotional/Spiritual Well-Being

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FCD CWI

• These seven domains have been well-established in over two decades of empirical research on subjective well-being by numerous social psychologists and other social scientists.

• In this sense, the CWI is an evidence-based measure of trends in averages of the social conditions encountered by children and youths in the United States.

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FCD CWI

• Each of the 28 Key Indicators is indexed by percentage change from the base year, 1975.– That is, subsequent annual observations are

computed as percentages of the base year.– Three indicators being in the mid-1980s and use

corresponding base years.

• The base year is assigned a value of 100. – The directions of the indicator values are oriented

such that a value greater (lesser) than 100 in subsequent years means the social condition measured has improved (deteriorated).

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FCD CWI

• The time series of the 28 indicators are grouped together into the seven domains described above and domain-specific summary well-being indices are constructed.– Within these summary indices, each indicator is

equally weighted.

• The seven component indices are then combined into an equally-weighted summary index of child and youth well-being.

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FCD CWI

Significant Findings

• The following charts show changes over time in the CWI and its various components.– Overall Index of Child Well-Being– Domain Specific Index: Educational Attainment

• Math Scores

• Reading Scores

– Effects of Standardization

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FCD CWI

Figure 1. Child Well-Being Index, 1975-2004, Projected for 2005

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FCD CWI

Figure 2. Domain-Specific Summary Indices, 1975-2004, with Projections for 2005.

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90

100

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1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Year

Per

cen

t o

f B

ase

Yea

r

Material Well-BeingHealthSafety/Behavioral ConcernsEducational AttainmentsPlace in CommunitySocial RelationshipsEmotional/Spiritual Well-Being

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FCD CWI

Focus: Educational Attainment Measures

• NAEP-National Assessment of Educational Progress– Conducted by the U.S. Dept of Education,

National Center for Education Statistics.– Periodic assessment of student knowledge and

abilities in a number of subjects.– NAEP long-term trend assessments in Math

and Reading use the same testing instruments and procedures to replicate test results over time for children aged 9, 13, and 17.

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FCD CWI

Figure 3. NAEP Math Scores, 1978-2004

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220

240

260

280

300

320

Year

NA

EP

Ma

th S

co

re

Age 9

Age 13

Age 17

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FCD CWI

Figure 4. NAEP Reading Scores, 1975-2004

200

215

230

245

260

275

290

305

Year

NA

EP

Re

ad

ing

Sc

ore

Age 9

Age 13

Age 17

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Demographic Standardization

• A technique for examining how a trend might be affected if the characteristics of the students had not changed over time:– For example, what would the math trend be if

the race/ethnic composition of schools had remained the same as in 1978?

• Thus, standardization controls for the effects of compositional changes on overall rates.

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FCD CWI

The Impacts of Changes in Student Composition since the 1970s on

NAEP Test Scores

Two significant changes are studied here:

1) Changes in the racial and ethnic composition of U.S. students.

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FCD CWI

Figure 5. Changing Racial/Ethnic Distribution of NAEP Students Age 17, 1978-2004

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Year

Pe

rce

nt

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

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FCD CWI

The Impacts of Changes in Student Composition since the 1970s on

NAEP Test Scores

Two significant changes are studied here:

• Changes in the racial and ethnic composition of U.S. students.

• Changes in parents’ level of educational attainment.

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FCD CWI

Figure 6. Changing Distribution of Parents' Highest Level of Education for NAEP Students Age 17, 1978-2004

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10

20

30

40

50

60

Year

Pe

rce

nt

of

stu

de

nts

Less than HS diploma

HS graduate

Post HS education

College graduate

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FCD CWI

Figure 7. NAEP Math Scores, Age 17: As Reported and Standardized by 1978 and 2004 Racial/Ethnic Distribution

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305

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Year

NA

EP

Mat

h S

core

NAEP Math Score

Standardized to 1978

Standardized to 2004

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FCD CWI

Figure 8. NAEP Math Scores, Age 17: As Reported and Standardized by 1978 and 2004 Parents' Highest Level of Education

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297

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301

303

305

307

309

311

Year

NA

EP

Ma

th S

co

re

NAEP Math Score

Standardized to 1978

Standardized to 2004

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FCD CWI

Figure 9. NAEP Reading Score, Age 17: As Reported and Standardized by 1980 and 2004 Racial/Ethnic Distribution

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282

284

286

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290

292

294

Year

NA

EP

Re

ad

ing

Sc

ore

NAEP Reading Score

Standardized to 1980

Standardized to 2004

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FCD CWI

Figure 10. NAEP Reading Score, Age 17: As Reported and Standardized by 1980 and 2004 Parents' Highest Level of Education

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282

284

286

288

290

292

294

Year

NA

EP

Re

ad

ing

Sc

ore

NAEP Reading Score

Standardized to 1980

Standardized to 2004

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FCD CWI

Conclusions• The overall well-being of children and youth in the

United States showed substantial improvement for the ten years from 1994 to 2003.– These improvements continued at a slow pace in 2004, and

likely continued through 2005.

• However, historically, the CWI showed a decline in well-being for a number of years in the 1980s and reached low points in 1993 and 1994.– These declines mirror economic restructuring, recessions,

and demographic changes.

• Only since the year 2000 has the CWI improved to above 1975 levels.

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FCD CWI

Conclusions (cont.)• The Key Indicators in the Educational

Attainment Domain have shown only slight changes since the mid-1970s:– Math Scores:

• Slight improvement at all ages

– Reading Scores: • Some improvement for age 9

• Little change for age 13

• Decline for age 17

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FCD CWI

Effects of the Changing Mix of Students

• Our demographic standardization analyses show:– Improvements in parents’ education have had

positive effects on student math scores.– The changing racial/ethnic distribution of

students has had a smaller effect on test scores.– There has been a general downturn in age 17

reading test scores since 1992; the downturn would have been larger without increases in parental education levels over the past three decades.

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FCD CWI

Implications• Improvements in parental educational attainments

are partially transferred to the abilities of their children in mathematics and reading; this is consistent with over four decades of research on intergenerational socioeconomic status transfers.

• The increases in rates of college graduation of young adults in the 1990s should lead to higher math test scores as they rear children over the next decade.

• Increases in education levels for minorities should reduce race/ethnic disparities in future test scores.

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FCD CWI

Implications, Cont.

• Further research on the downturn in reading test scores for 17-year olds is required to explain the declines over the past decade. For instance, we do not know the extent to which the decline is related to the widespread use of new media for entertainment (e.g., video games, the Internet) and corresponding declines in time devoted to reading and the extent to which such changes are reversible.

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FCD CWI

The CWI on the Web:

http://www.soc.duke.edu/~cwi/