Fatih Özatay, TOBB-ETÜ and TEPAV Sarajevo, 20 October 2009 tepav Economic Policies in the...
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Transcript of Fatih Özatay, TOBB-ETÜ and TEPAV Sarajevo, 20 October 2009 tepav Economic Policies in the...
Fatih Özatay, TOBB-ETÜ and TEPAV Sarajevo, 20 October 2009
tepavEconomic Policies in the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Emerging Economies
Why? EM are less fragile now, compared to past
crises. EM as a whole have given less response
to contractory forces than developed countries.
Within the EM, considerable differences in the implementation of countercyclical policies have been observed.
What are the potential underlying reasons?
Aftermath of financial crises Slide 2
Fiscal stimulus and macroeconomic indicators
Aftermath of financial crises Slide 3
Fiscal st./GDP Debt/GDP Fiscal bal. / GDP CAB / GDP FX Reserves Output gap2009+2010 2007 2007 2007 end2007 (bil$) 2009
Argentina 1.5% 67.9% -2.2 1.6 46.2 -3.5%Brasil 1.2% 67.7% -2.5 0.1 180.3 -3.6%China 5.8% 20.2% 0.9 11.0 1528.2 -2.1%India 1.2% 80.5% -5.2 -1.0 275.3 -0.5%Indonesia 2.0% 35.1% -1.2 2.4 56.9 -1.1%Korea 8.3% 29.6% 3.5 0.6 262.2 -9.4%Mexico 2.5% 38.2% -1.4 -0.8 78.0 -9.8%Russia 5.4% 7.4% 6.8 5.9 477.9 -8.1%Saudi Arabia 6.8% 18.5% 15.7 25.1 423.0 -2.5%South Africa 5.1% 28.5% 1.2 -7.3 33.0 -3.7%Turkey 1.1% 39.4% -2.1 -5.8 76.4 -9.5%Czec Rep.* 1.9% 25.3% -0.6 -3.2 34.9 -5.7%Hungary* 4.0% 65.8% -4.9 -6.4 24.1 -5.0%Poland* 5.5% 42.7% -1.4 -5.8 65.7 -3.0%
Fiscal stimulus vs public debt (EM in G-20 + 3)
Aftermath of financial crises Slide 4
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
.01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
STIMULUS (2009+2010)
PUBLIC
DEBT / GDP (2
007)
Fiscal stimulus vs fiscal balance (EM in G-20+3)
Aftermath of financial crises Slide 5
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
.01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
STIMULUS (2009+2010)
FIS
CAL B
ALANCE/G
DP (2
007)
Fiscal stimulus vs current account balance (EM in G-20+3)
Aftermath of financial crises Slide 6
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
.01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
STIMULUS (2009+2010)
CA B
ALANCE / GDP (2
007)
In previous crises…
Countercyclical policies were generally not an option for most of the EM countries in previous crises.
Asian crisis, The contagious Russian crisis, 2001 Turkey, Argentina…
Aftermath of financial crises Slide 7
Vulnerability dominance… Capital flows (CF): Portfolio choice CF = f[Rrf-εeR*/ε-kΘ*p] A positive relationship between the
real exchange rate and probability of default.
Aftermath of financial crises Slide 8
Vulnerability dominance: Risk and credit supply
CR = L. [CR0+PB.B0-(D0d+ ε.D0
fx)]As p and θ* increases;
PB decreases,Real depreciation (ε increases).Credit supply can decrease.
Aftermath of financial crises Slide 9
Aggregate demand As default probability increases, AD
decreases (if the usual NX channel does not offset).
Vicious spiral:As p increases Rr and ε increases,As Rr and ε increases, vulnerabilities
increase, Hence, p increases.
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 10
Countercyclical policies??? Basic principle: Your policy response should
decrease default probability and risk aversion.
So the main task of the policymakers is to identify the source(s) of existing and potential vulnerabilities that increase p and θ* and address these problems.
This is the basic logic behind expansionary fiscal consolidations, for instance.
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 11
A Case: Turkey 2001
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 12
Fiscal policy indicators (Turkey, % of GDP, old series)Fiscal Fiscal Public Growth
impulse1 impulse2 debt (%)
2001 -3.0 -5.6 104.3 -5.7
2002 -0.5 1.3 90.7 6.2
2003 0.6 3.1 80.6 5.3
2004 1.9 2.9 74.9 9.4
2005 5.0 5.1 68.9 8.4
2006 0.8 0.2 63.0 6.9
Countercyclical policies??? However, as a response to a contractory
crisis, in order a tightening cycle (monetary+fiscal) to work, there should be significant vulnerabilities prevailing.
Of course, the appropriate policy response should not only depend on monetary and fiscal mesures. For example, the financial sector can be problematic.
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 13
Countercyclical polices??? This is no longer the case for many EM
countries: These countries are more resiliant to shocks:Healthier financial sectors,Improved fiscal balances,Reduction in government debt,Low inflation,More flexible exchange rate regimes,Insurance: More reserves.
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 14
EMBI spreads (1998.1 – 2009.9)
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 15
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Russian crisis End 2007
LAC7: Government debt/GDP (%)
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 16
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
LAC7: FX Reserves/GDP (%)
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 17
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Turkey: Government debt /GDP and FX reserves /GDP (%)
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 18
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
2
4
6
8
10
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
TUR:B/GDP TUR:FX/GDP
Response to the global crisis: EM vs developed economies
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 19
Response of G-20 to the crisis (% GDP)Advanced Other G-20
2009 2010 Total 2009 2010 TotalFiscal 1.9 1.6 3.5 2.2 1.6 3.8Financial* 8.7 8.7 0.5 0.5 (Financial used) (2.5) (2.5) (0.3) (0.3)Automatic stab. 2.4 2.5 4.9 1.1 1.2 2.3Total 13 4.1 17.1 3.8 2.8 6.6
Fiscal indicators of G-20 (%)Advanced Other G-20
2007 2009 ∆ 2007 2009 ∆Public debt / GDP 78.8 100.6 21.8 37.5 38.8 1.3Fiscal Bal. / GDP -1.9 -10.2 -8.3 0.2 -4.9 -5.1*: Announced capital injection and purchase of assets
Response to the global crisis: EM vs developed economies
In developed countries automatic stabilizers are at work.
Nonetheless, their policy responses (fiscal + financial) have been much sharper than EM. Moreover, some ‘extraordinary’ mesures have been taken.
This is striking; excluding countries like China and Korea, it is even more so.
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 20
Then: Why are some of EM shying off countercyclical polices?
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 21
Fiscal st./GDP Debt/GDP Fiscal bal. / GDP CAB / GDP FX Reserves Output gap St. Spread2009+2010 2007 2007 2007 end2007 (bil$) 2009 2007 av.**
Argentina 1.5% 67.9% -2.2 1.6 46.2 -3.5% -0.72Brasil 1.2% 67.7% -2.5 0.1 180.3 -3.6% -1.26China 5.8% 20.2% 0.9 11.0 1528.2 -2.1% -0.71India 1.2% 80.5% -5.2 -1.0 275.3 -0.5%Indonesia 2.0% 35.1% -1.2 2.4 56.9 -1.1% -0.67Korea 8.3% 29.6% 3.5 0.6 262.2 -9.4% -0.87Mexico 2.5% 38.2% -1.4 -0.8 78.0 -9.8% -1.00Russia 5.4% 7.4% 6.8 5.9 477.9 -8.1% -0.62Saudi Arabia 6.8% 18.5% 15.7 25.1 423.0 -2.5%South Africa 5.1% 28.5% 1.2 -7.3 33.0 -3.7% -0.94Turkey 1.1% 39.4% -2.1 -5.8 76.4 -9.5% -1.02Czec Rep.* 1.9% 25.3% -0.6 -3.2 34.9 -5.7% -0.43Hungary* 4.0% 65.8% -4.9 -6.4 24.1 -5.0% -0.27Poland* 5.5% 42.7% -1.4 -5.8 65.7 -3.0% -0.90*UN; ** A negative sign indicates below the mean spread.
Why shying off? Relative to past, less fragile; but still
fragile?There are still some country specific problems
(dollarization, current account deficits, etc.),But most of the indicators are in the positive
side, Powerful memories?
“They are again implementing unsound polices.”
Fear of “punishment”?
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 22
Why shying off? Less fiscal room?
Yes, debt to GDP ratios have declined considerably,
But, financial systems of these countries are much shallower than those of developed countries,
However, correcting for this fact, for most of these countries still there is room for maneuver.
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 23
Why shying off? Great uncertainties leading to a ‘wait
and see’ mode?Accumulated FX reserves: “however let us
do not use them, liquidity situation can get worse”?
No expertise?Addicted to Washington institutions for
designing a policy package?Know how to tighten, but lack of expertise
in countercyclical policies?
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 24
Turkey: What could have been the policy response?
Turkey is one of the main victims of this crisis (%6.5 contraction, %15 unemployment).
However, did not give a significant policy response.
What has been done was put in place too late (March and June 2009) and weak.
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 25
Turkey: What could have been the policy response?
Extraordinary times need extraordinary measures,
When most of the countries are taking such measures, risk of punishment decreases,
Main problems are drying-up of international liquidity and lack of foreign demand,
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 26
Turkey: What could have been the policy response?
Show that as a policymaker you are doing your best without jeopardizing the future stability,
Do not expect too much, but try to mitigate contractionary forces as much as you can.
Use your limited fiscal room to get maximum multiplier effect
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 27
Turkey: What could have been the policy response?
To increase demand for domestically produced goods:Target unemployed and poor: Increase
unemployment coverage and benefits,Temporary increase in pensions and
transfers to poor.
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 28
Turkey: What could have been the policy response?
To trigger credit supply, try to decrease risk perception of banks,Credit guarantee systems (Budget),FX credit guarantee systems: (Budget and
CB), Commitment to medium term stability,
Fiscal rule?How to widen the tax base?How to increase human capital? Especially
for unemployed?
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 29
Short-run response of the economy to alternative policies (calculated in January 2009)
Growth rate (%) Unemployment rate (%)
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 30
Full response of the economy to alternative policies (calculated in January 2009)
Growth rate (%) Unemployment rate (%)
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 31
Thank you…
Aftermath of financial crisesSlide 32