Fashion+Forecasting

fashion research methods

school of fashionLynne Hammond 2002

FASHION RESEARCH METHODS 2002

CONTENTS:

Fashion Research OverviewTrade ShowsForecastingPublicationsCatwalk ShowsDirectional Shopping TripsCultural EventsHistorical SourcesMedia/MusicInternetReferences


Fashion Research Overview

An insufficient flow of information leads to inadequately designed products. (Formosa 1991)The processes involved in designing new ranges and collections normally begins withresearching and gathering information. However, fashion designers have limited training inresearch, and rarely conduct their own research studies, resulting in intuitive and subjectivejudgements. Contributing to the problems is the limited amount of time available to conductthe research, and the heavy costs involved in designers gathering the information.Information gaps do occur, and being able to anticipate downward and emerging new trends,will ensure sustained profit performance. The effectiveness of the research method is difficultto measure, and the various members of the design team, undertake most of the methodsoutlined below to obtain a collective view.

Research Methods which can be used by the fashion designer

Trade ShowsForecastingPublicationsCatwalk ShowsDirectional Shopping TripsCultural EventsHistorical SourcesMedia/MusicInternet

Designers need to draw upon a diverse range of information to inform their decision-makingduring the process of range planning and development. Depending on the market level, typeof product, and the company will determine the types of methods used by the fashiondesigner. High Street retailers would use methods related to the here and now andsecondary sources, and would be influenced by current trends for mass-market consumers.Whereas designer labels would be more interested in influences external to fashion andprimary sources, to create highly original and innovative collections.

Fashion forecasting is an important activity to ensure that through the process ofobservation, related to short and long term planning can be based on sound and rationaldecision making not hype. Forecasting can bridge the gap between ambiguous, conflictingsigns and the action taken by the design team. Fashion forecasting combines theories offashion changes with the process of organising and analysing the information andsynthesizing the data into actionable forecasts. (Brannon 2000) Forecasting is a creativeprocess that can be understood, practiced and applied. Forecasting provides a way forexecutives to expand their thinking about changes, through anticipating the future, andprojecting the likely outcomes. (Lavenback and Cleary 1981)


Fashion Research Overview continued

Brannon (2000) puts forward steps in developing a forecast, which consists of tools andtechniques applied systematically.

Steps in developing a forecasting are:

Identifying the basic facts about past trends and forecasts; Determine the causes of change in the past; Determine the differences between past forecasters actual behaviour; Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future; Apply forecasting tools and techniques paying attention to issues of accuracy and

reliability; Follow the forecast continually to determine reasons for significant deviations from

expectations; Revise the forecast when necessary.

The methods of identifying and anticipating what will be successful ranges/collections fornext season, are influenced by how inspirational concepts are sourced, how information isgathered, and what references are utilised to create the new ranges.


Trade Shows

Designers visit trade shows to gain advanced knowledge of fabrics, and fashion products,such as garments, accessories, and footwear. These shows are organised by textile andfashion garment companies, to present new fabric or garment ranges, and the purpose is tosell their products to fashion buyers and designers. It is important that designers attend theseshows to be able to observe and obtain future insights, which influence their decision-makingabilities when designing the ranges. All fashion companies surveyed all sent designers tovisit trade shows on a regular basis, and stated the importance of international travel, in thecreative process was essential to design development. The advantages of attending tradeshows proved to be linked to networking, building relationships with suppliers, viewing newinformation and products and most of all the important ascertaining key information on whichto base range planning. Attending key trade shows also provide a wealth of information andideas for inspiration. These shows are normally held twice a year, and present new productranges at least 12 18months ahead of the season. There are usually two types of tradeshows, textile or garment.

Textiles shows are divided into two categories, yarn or fabric shows. The success of tradeshows is based on the attendance by leading figures in the industry. One very importantfabric trade show is Premier Vision, and has presents products from over 850 Europeanweaver-exhibitors and over 45,000 visitors over the four days. (Jackson 2001)

Garment and product shows are much more diverse, ranging from high profile catwalkdesigner shows to more mainstream and mass market shows. In addition, they aresegmented according to sector, such as sportswear, lingerie, menswear or womenswear.Garment Shows are held in international locations, and allow the fashion buyer to observenew merchandise, and liase with the manufacturers/suppliers to confirm new orders, or tobuy new ranges. The fashion buyer are constantly searching for new ranges/collections toadd interest to their existing portfolio of suppliers, as well as identifying cheaper versions withgood quality features.

These product trade shows are constantly changing, in terms of their locations and names,however the European textile trade shows have sustained their positions during volatiletrading conditions. The UK Textile industry has suffered a decline and does not attract theinternational audience it once did. The Elite Fabric Show in London, although small in scale,does provide a national service to UK fashion designers.

Trade shows present key trends through a variety of methods. They provide thematicgroupings of directional concepts in a central location at the venue. In addition, furtherinsights are gained from watching audiovisual shows, which fashion experts use asoverviews of the season and emerging trends.


Trade Shows continued

Key decision making stages in the development of a fashion season Spring/Summer 2001(adapted from Jackson 2001)

Date Event Textile Show Garment Shows

May Fashion Forecasters plancolour

June British Textile Colour Group(BTCG) meetsIntercolour Group meets ParisBTCG representative returnto review

October Premiere Vision (A/W00/01)(incorporating IndigoS/S 01)

November Filo Yarn Milan(mainly weavers)

December Expofil yarn show -Paris

January Pitti Filati yarn show -Florence

Paris Couture Shows

February Tissu Premier fabricshow - Lille

London Fashion WeekParis Fashion WeekMilan Fashion Week

March Prato Expo fabric show FlorencePremier Vision - Paris

July Pitto Uomo Menswear Florence

August 40 degrees YoungCasual wear LondonPure Womenswear LondonHerren Moda-InterJeans Cologne

September/October

Designer Ready to wearshowsDesigner CoutureShows


Fashion Forecasting Agencies

Trend identification enables companies to execute a strategy based on timing. Thesestrategic windows (Abel 1978) involves timing the firms product offering to the customersreadiness and willingness to accept and adopt those products. Forecasting agencies are theprimary vehicle for presenting this kind of information. We live in a time when the turnover ofstuff clothing, electronics, bands, holiday destinations, cooking ingredients has reachedblur speed, says Nick Barham, head of Profusion, the trend-spotting unit for the advertisingagency Bartle Bogle Hegarty, whose clients include Levis.

These agencies gather information and visual images on colour, fabric, yarn etc usually 2years ahead of schedule i.e if a company is designing 18months ahead, the information theyare using has been prepared anything between 6months to 1 year in advance. In the firstinstance internationally syndicated bodies such as Dupont or ICI discuss this information withthe relevant consultancies, which in turn sell this information to the forecasting agencies.They produce in the form of books or slides, all this assimilated knowledge to manufacturer/design teams within the garment industry. One of the leading trend predictors is Li Edelkoort,who has her business in Paris, provides directions for the next big thing.

The majority of fashion companies do refer to fashion forecasting books, not necessarilythrough employing agencies on a consultancy basis, but through purchasing informationthrough specialist fashion book suppliers. Fashion forecasting agencies have reduced innumber of the last 5 years, with the disappearance of key agencies such as DesignIntelligence. However, this particular function is now integrated into large companies as partof the design department, with in-house forecasting teams, who liase with designers indeveloping ranges. The advantages of such in-house forecasting is to ensure that formalisedstructured reporting is undertaken in line with the company strategy and market needs. Thedisadvantages of such integration can be the limited inspirational thinking. External agencieswho are not linked to the corporate structure of the fashion company can provide fresh, newand innovative thinking in the development of ranges.

There are a number of forecasting businesses that provide specialist information to thefashion company. Well known agencies are Peclers, Promostyle, and Li Edelkoort areinternational players and provide extensive visual books to fashion companies. Promostyleis a trends forecasting business, which offers services to a global client base as well ascustomised consulting service to companies. These forecasting agencies offer directions andadvisory information based on many years of experience, and have the ability to spot apotentially strong trend.

Fashion forecasting is used within the fashion/textile industry as a means of directingcompanies into new ideas of colour/fabric/theme/mood and yarn developments for differentproduct types and levels. Knowledge of trends and future market requirements isincreasingly important to the industry. While there is no definitive fashion story, accessing theright colour palette, researching fabric and styling trends to suit a particular niche andcustomer profile is essential. The degree and quality of information available to designersand its interpretation, given an effective marketing strategy, effectively dictates their successin the market place.


Fashion Forecasting Agencies continued

The dissemination of trend information in the textiles supply chain has evolved in afragmented manner. Contributing factors are the declining degree of vertical integrationoverall and the traditional small size of apparel manufacturers. Because of the dominance ofretail brands, firms have traditionally manufactured to their own requirements with nocompunction to investigate the trends themselves. This has adversely affected Small andMedium Enterprises wanting to develop their own brands and the large number of smallscale manufacturing aiming to diversify from Cut Make and Trim.

Attempts to define and analyse forecasting/prediction consultancies roles and how they areused are on the whole vague, confused and ill informed. The UK fashion and textile industryhas traditionally been production orientated with long runs of similar styles and colours of theseasonal norm. This is changing as manufacturers adapt to the more demanding consumerrequirements. The increasing need to become more market orientated necessitates up todate design information, to be analysed and adapted to particular markets and requirements.By accurately forecasting customer trend requirements less end of season discounting andincreased profits are realised by both manufacturers and retailers.

The increase of fashion prediction book, such as Textile View, Interior View, Textile Report,Juene Creatuers, are available through specialist book shops and provide a less expensivemethod of featuring fabric, colour and look combinations. The analysis of this publishedtrend information is another important task of the designer and the product developmentteam. These fashion books also provide important directions in terms of graphics, pagelayout, emerging product trends, contemporary images and overall presentational informationthat are part of the concept inspirational development process. However, these books areessential in confirming and assisting designers in understanding and developing futureranges.

Forecasting agencies usually have their own trend-spotting unit like the one at BBH, whileother industries hire the services of people like Faith Popcorn. Ms Popcorn, probably theworlds famous spotter, advises multinationals like IBM and Pepsi, and is credited withpredicting the cocooning craze in the early Nineties. Trend spotters are the middlemanbetween the underground and the overground. They travel the world, visiting clubs, bars andshops, sourcing fabrics and sensing the vibe. They gather their findings, and instead ofpassing on ideas through word of mouth, they package their findings in the form of trendsbooks.


Fashion Publications

All the fashion companies surveyed used fashion magazines extensively in researchingtrends and assessing the current ranges. There are 4 different types of fashion publicationswhich designers use during the creative process. Directional specialist lifestyle magazinessuch as Wallpaper, Spoon, Dutch provide visual information, which are not directly related tofashion products, but communicate messages about lifestyle products and contexts.Directional fashion magazines such as Purple, Tank, Another Fashion, provide images andfeature products from new generation designers, who are experimental in their fashion andstyling development. In addition, Fashion Consumer Magazines such as Vogue, MarieClaire, Elle, provide features on designer collections, and high street ranges to a mass-market audience. The fourth type of fashion publication is professional and trade magazines,which directly reports on business issues and provides information on trade show events.

Magazines provided secondary information about competitors products, as well asinspiration material for determining potential products for next seasons. They provide aneffective and efficient way of observing and viewing wide ranging themes and conceptspresented by the fashion press. The features provide clues about how styling stories are co-ordinated as well as emerging new product trends through reporting information. Dependingon the market level, segment, and sector will influence the types of fashion publications,which are used by the fashion designer.


Catwalk Shows

The catwalk show is a public event, a marketing exercise, where each show guards andmaintains its own aura of exclusivity. Such exclusivity is part of its very marketability, wherethe audience forms part of the spectacle and the product portrays an image that is reflectedonly in its semblance (Khan 200). The catwalk show according to Khan provides onepurpose which is to be noticed. However, the catwalk shows, although a powerful marketingtool, also provide not only a presentation of new ranges to the retail buyers, but are publicforums used by the high street retailers to influence water downed versions of the designerproducts.

Catwalk shows provide the high street retailers with ideas, which are often translated in acheaper version. The high street retailers are able to copy and supply to the shops within oneweek of observing the catwalk shows. The designer labels provide important key silhouettes,fabrics and overall styling directions, which are influence fashion designers thinking andconfirmation of the right direction. Presented twice a year, every 6 months, and one seasonahead ready for collections to be in the shops before the start of either the summer or winter.People who attend these events are buyers from retail outlets, such as independents,department stores, and designers from mass-market companies. The function of the catwalkis to presenting new and original fashion statements, and highly original styling looks.

Season 1 Season 2Catwalk Shows Shown at beginning of Autumn

SeptemberShown in at beginning of SpringFebruary

Collections Season Presenting Spring/Summer Presenting Autumn/Winter


Directional Shopping Trips

One important activity of the designer is producing directional shop reports. This task wasidentified as the most common method of researching new fashion ranges, and of all thecompanies surveyed this was the key approach utilised by the designer. This activity isundertaken by the designer and is usually involves trips to New York, Far East and WesternEuropean locations to gain ideas from different cultures. Shop reports informs the team andcompany of what is happening in the retail market, but is also used to communicate in moredetailed the merchandise seen. Designers would cover a wide range of market levels andmerchandise to ascertain a broad view of fashion and consumer lifestyles. The mass-marketapproach to product development would be to look at the designer labels and develop moreaffordable design ideas and water down the looks.

Shop reports also take into account a close examination of price, fabrication, colour, shape,trims, print etc. Retail reports are important to ensure that designers are constantly aware ofthe merchandise available at the high street stores, designer boutiques. Both high street anddesigner level have their influences on the designers decision making. Design teams have tocome to their own conclusions on how these design trends will evolve or be projected for thefollowing year. Without this information there can be no directions identified, and it isimportant to be well informed on the fashion, market and consumer environment. Fashion isa constant evolution of trends, rather than personal ideas plucked from nowhere, otherwisethe ideas would resemble the theatrical costumes rather than fashion. Retail reports are anaccount of current merchandise in retail outlets. Reports can be divided into individualgarment categories such as sportswear, accessories, womenswear. An informative retailreport is one of careful selection, not just reviews of common merchandise, designers haveto select the right garments, which could be utilised for future development.

The recording process is then organised into a coherent and organised information report.Once the information has been roughly gathered, it must be presented in a logical andpresentable manner and illustrate what is being projected. A retail report acts very much likea magazine, but with a more detailed and intense analytical account. The information isusually grouped around looks built around key items. E.g. sport, casual, knitwear,childrenswear. The selection of the design material gathered, is analysed and presented inproduct ranges or categories. The report must include written statements, with an account ofconclusions of the retail market, looks being projected and the key items for that season. Theretail report must project a universal account of the major looks and items of the season.


Cultural Events

Designers also take inspiration from cultural influences. Being sensitive to how peopledress, what they want from their clothes is very important to understanding their dress needs.By exploring different cultures and exploring diversity can expand the creative thinking toform new looks. Fashion is what has become the propelling momentum, the dominant modeof consumption itself, as both the organizational thematic and fluctuating dynamic ofconsumption, fashion is rapidly instituting itself as the universal code under which all otherprevious cultural codes are subsumed. (Faurschou 1990)

Researching fashion cultural trends are a complex and difficult task. A number of theorieshave been put forward on what influences fashion and explanations on the phenomenon ofchange. Traditional perspectives include the trickle down theory (Davis 1992), collectiveselection theory (Blumer 1969), mass-market theory (King 1963) and sub-culture leadershiptheory (Kaiser). Trickle down theories emphasis the vertical flow of ideas from upper to lowerclass. Collection selection emphasises collective taste and conforming to similar fashionlooks. Mass-market refers to the fact that mass production in the fashion industry is the mainsources of change. Subculture leadership theory holds that different subcultures can inspirenew fashion and how it is diffused among the general public.

However, recent contemporary research studies into these areas, views fashion change tobe divided into micro and macro level. The micro level refers to the individual searching fornew looks in the marketplace, but still wanting acceptance in society, and the second macrolevel theory by Keans (1997) interpretation that the fashion system is the key change agent.Small retailers follow the large and powerful retailers in providing similar styles in eachfashion season. People are forced to select from similar styles, but the main difference lies inthe way people mix and co-ordinate their outfits while expressing their individuality. Behling(1985) sees fashion change from role models in society and the populations disposableincome. He argues that a high rate of disposable include can accelerate the process offashion change and vice versa.

Historical Sources

Designers are constantly referring to past fashion movements to influence new looks andstyling statements. Attending exhibitions and museums are an important way of accessingand seeing historical costumes, which can provide a wealth of ideas. It provides sources ofinformation to assist in identifying classic and successful features from past fashionmovements. An example of how important it is to be aware of historical references isconstant use of the corset, which has been a highly commercial success for the last 5 years,and still features in the majority of designer and high street ranges.


Media/Music

Britain is known as being the leader in young leading edge fashion design, and a source offashion inspiration. It is seen as particularly good at taking trends from the street and it isoften allied to the music industry. The subculture movements normally derived from themusic industry, are very important indicators and signals to new forms of fashion statements.Designers need to constantly be aware of the sociological trends which influenceunderground movements and their adoption to mainstream fashion styling. Subcultures, andyouth cultures in general, have gradually separated out their particular imagery from theworld of daily labour and immediate social contexts. (Chambers 1990: 68-9). By analysingtrends in music and television, can have great impact to the success of new ranges beingcreated by the fashion designer.

In addition, films prove to be an important source of inspiration. Both Tom Ford and RalphLauren took 1930s black and white films are a starting point, with Ford going so far as togive us Fred Astaire white gloves and a silver-topped cane at Gucci. (Colin McDowell 2001)Old films have been an inspiration for Ralph Lauren throughout his career, and he usedcomboy films such as High Noon to mark his 35th year as a designer.

Internet

The Internet provides effortless accessibility to international environments, and products.Over the last few years there has been an increase in specialist websites providing fashioninformation to the fashion designer. The fashion websites provide up to date information onissues concerning the fashion industry. In addition, they provide online reporting systemssuch as merchandising surveys, trade show summaries, catwalk pictures. This provides thedesigners with access to current information instantly, and reduces the costs of researchingand travelling to gain this type of reference material. Websites are becoming a centralresource to designers to ensure they are armed with a set of tools to ensure that the rangesbeing produced are competitive and meet consumer demands. New websites are presentinghighly progressive ideas and exploring the use of multi media techniques, which providesinsights to fashion companies to ensure they are presenting themselves to the public in acontemporary manner. Specialist Internet sites also serve the fashion industry, such asWGSN, and first view.


References

Khan, N. (2000) Catwalk Politics in S. Bruzzi and P. Church Gibson (ed.), Fashion Cultures,theories, explorations and analysis, London: Routledge.

Faurschou, G. (1990) Obsolescence and desire: fashion and the commodity form, in H.J.Silverman (ed.), Postmodernism Philosophy and the Arts, London: Routledge.

Abel, D.F. (1978) Strategic Windows. Journal of Marketing, 42, 21-28

Brannon, E. (2000) Fashion Forecasting, United States of America, Fairchild Publishingwww.wgsn.com

Law, K.M., Zhang, Z.M., Leung, C.S. (1999) Fashion Change, Textile Asia. P.30 32

Davis, F. (1992). Fashion, Culture and Identity. The University of Chicago Press

Blumer, H. (1969) Fashion: From Class Differentiation to Collective Selection. In G.B.Sproles (Ed.), Perspectives of Fashion (pp.31-39) Burgess Publishing Company

King. C.W. (1963) Fashion Adoption: A Rebuttal to the Trickle-Down Theory. In G.B.Sproles (Ed.), Perspectives of Fashion (pp.31-39). Burgess Publishing Company

Kaiser S.B., Nagasawa R.H., Hutton S.S (1995). Constructing of an SI Theory of Fashion:Part 1: Ambivalence and Change. Clothing and Textiles Research Journal, vol. 13, 3,pp.172-183

Kean. R. (1997). The role of Fashion System in Fashion Change: A Response to the Kaiser,Nagasawa and Hutton Model. Clothing and Textile Research Journal, vol. 5, 3. pp. 8-15

Behling. D. (1985). Fashion Changes and Demographics: A Model. Clothing and TextilesResearch Journal, vol.14.1, pp.18-24

Chambers, I. (1990), Border Dialogues: Journeys in Postmodernity, London: Routledge

Jackson, T. (2001) The process of fashion trend development leading to a season, in T.Hines and M. Bruce (eds.) Fashion Marketing Contemporary Issues, Oxford, Butterworth-Heinemann.

McDowell, C. (2002) Sunday Times Style Supplement, 24th January 2002

Williamson, C. (2002) Evening Standard ES Supplement 25th January 2002

Lavenbach, H. and Cleary, J.P. (1981) The beginning forecaster: The forecasting processthrough data analysis. Belmont, CA; Lifetime Learning.

Formosa, D. (1991) Design and Information: The State of Information, Art Libraries Journal1991 16/3

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