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Pep CanadellGCP International Project Office
http://www.GlobalCarbonProject.org
The Partnership and Stakeholders
IPCC
NATIONAL / POLICY GOVERNMENT
NATIONAL/REGIONALCARBON PROGRAMS
INTERNATIONAL
PROTOCOLS
Observational ProgramsIGOS-P [IGCO]
CO2 Panel
[IOC-SCOR]
IGBP
WCRP
IHDP
Terrestrial National and Regional Programs
LBA
CarboEruope
China
Australia
North AmericaCarbon Plan
Siberia
Jp
SA
NZ
Canadian
2
Hydrographic Sampling Stations
Ships of Opportunity
Pacific Ocean
Indian Ocean
Ocean National and Regional Programs
Courtesy of Chris SabineCourtesy of Chris Sabine
To develop comprehensive, policy-relevant understanding of the global carbon cycle, encompassing its natural and human dimensions and their interactions.
Research Goal
The Conceptual Framework
Disturbances EcosystemPhysiology
AtmosphericCarbon
TerrestrialCarbon
Ocean/CoastalCarbon
BiologicalPump
ClimateChange
andVariabil.
SolubilityPump
Unperturbed C CyclePerturbed C Cycle
Land UseSystems
IndustryTransportSystems
Ocean-useSystems
FossilCarbon
Perceptionsof humanwelfare
Changes ininstitutions& technol.
Perception of a problem
1. To develop a research framework for integration of the biogeochemical, biophysical and human components of the global carbon cycle
The GCP Mandate
6. To develop a small number of new research initiatives that are feasible within a 3-5 year time framework on difficult and highly interdisciplinary problems of the carbon cycle
5. To strengthen the carbon-related research programs of nations and regions, and those in international programs such as IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, and the observation community, through better coordination, articulation of goals, and development of conceptual frameworks
4. To provide a global coordinating platform for regional and national carbon programs to improve observation network design, data standards, information and tools transfer, and timing of campaigns and process-based experiments, including the development of data-model fusion schemes, and design of cost effective observational and research networks
3. To develop tools and conceptual frameworks to couple the biophysical and human dimensions of the carbon cycle
2. To synthesize current understanding of the global C cycle and provide rapid feedback to the research and policy communities and general public
1. Patterns and Variability1.1. Enhancing Observations
• Coordination & Standardization• Lateral Movement of C• Non-CO2 compounds
1.2. Model-Data Fusion• Forward and Inverse Modeling• Model-data fusion techniques
1.3 Carbon Budgets• Standardized Methodologies• Developing Methodologies• Geographic/Sector Analyses
2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks2.1. Mechanisms
• Multiple mechanisms in oceans• Multiple mechanisms on land• Integrated anthrop. C emissions
2.2. Regional Development• Case studies• Drivers and C consequences• Management options
2.3 Emergent Properties• Carbon-Climate interactions• Carbon-climate-human interactions
3. Future Dynamics
3.1. Biological Control Points• C sequestration• Non-fossil emissions
3.2. FF Emissions Control Points• Mitigation options• Technological changes
3.3 Carbon 21• Institutional analyses and design• Interactions between adaptat & mitigat.• Interactions between C & others• Tools and approaches for C managem.
Portfolio of Activities & Products
2002 2003
Annual SSC Meeting
Land Use-Carbon SI
Publication Science Framework
Terrestrial Sinks Wk
Research Institute Data Assimilation
State-of-the-Art Synthesis Wk
Ocean Coordination Wk
2004
Regional T. C Budgets Confer.
CO2 Stabilization Pathways Wk
T. Data Assimilation: Data Wk
Respiration Book
International Project and Affiliate Offices
CSIRO,Canberra Australia
NCAR,Boulder USA
NIES,TsukubaJapan
Max Planck InstituteJena, Germany
IOC/SCOR-CO2 PanelParis, France
Co-Chairs:Michael Raupach, Australia (IGBP)Robert Dickinson, USA (WCRP)Oran Young, USA (IHDP)
Executive Director:Pep Canadell, Australia
Michael Apps, CanadaAlain Chedin, FranceCheng-Tung Arthur Chen, China (Tapei)
Peter Cox, UKEllen Druffel, USAChristopher Field, USAPatricia Romero Lankao, MexicoLouis Philipe Lebel, ThailandAnnan Partwardhan, IndiaMonika Rhein, GermanyChristopher Sabine, USARiccardo Valentini, ItalyYoshiki Yamagata, Japan
Scientific Steering Committee
www.GlobalCarbonProject.org
Focus 1: Patterns and Variability
Night LightsOcean C Storage (mol m-2)
Ocean C Fluxes Terrestrial NPP
Takahashi et al. 2002)
NASASabine (unpublished)
Cramer et al. 2000)
What are the geographical and temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks?
Canadell et al. 2000
Data-ModelFusion
[Use of multiplestreams of datasets]
C stock and flux measurementsInventory analysesProcess-based informationClimate dataRemote sensingCO2 column from spaceInverse modelingProcess-based modelingRetrospective and forward analysesMany others
Focus 2: Processes, Controls and Interactions
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
B = biomass
H =
hum
ans
Emerging Properties of the coupled system
Paleo Naturally dynamics Land Use Change
Institutional Responses
What are the controls and feedback mechanisms – both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic – that determine the dynamics of the carbon cycle on scales of years to millennia?
CO2 fertilization
Carb
o n S
tor a
ge
New Biospheric Responses
Fossil Fuel Emissions
Focus 2: Carbon Sink MechanismsCa
rbo n
Sto
rag e
in t h
e B i
osph
ere
aCO2 concentrationTemperature
Temperature
Land use
Ocean iron depositionNitrogen deposition
Warm ecosystems
Coldecosystems
Soil respiration
CO2 fertilization
N fertilization Fe fertilization
Forestconversion
Plant growth
x
x
x
x
Focus 2: Coupling the Climate-Carbon-Human System
(Biogeophysical)
(Biogeochemical)
Hadley Center Climate Model
Hum
an Dim
ension
Focus 3: Future Dynamics of the Carbon Cycle
Friedlingstein et al. 2000
Terrestrial Biosphere C Sink
Cramer et al. 2000
IPCC 2001
What are the likely dynamics of the global carbon cycle into the future?
Hydrographic Sampling Stations
Ships of Opportunity
International CLIVAR/CO2 Lines
GCP-CO2 Panel Workshop: [13-15 Jan. 2003, UNESCO, Paris]
Ocean Carbon Research and Observation Activities
• To gather information on activities
• To identify gaps and duplications
• To produce recommendations
• To integrate with other C data
Research Institute Series [2002-2005]:Data Assimilation in C Cycle Research
Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation, Boulder, Colorado (US), 20 – 31 May 2002
Research, Tool development, Educational, Outreach
1. Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation [2002]
2. Ocean Data-Model Assimilation [2003]
3. Land Data-Model Assimilation [2004]
4. Earth System Data-Model Assimilation [2005]
http://dataportal.ucar.edu/CDAS/
C Consequences of Regional Development Pathways
Contribution to: Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission, and
the Global Carbon CycleSTART-Packard FoundationNCAR, Boulder, Colorado,
4 – 22 August 2003
Integrating carbon management into development strategies of cities
and their surrounds in the Asia-Pacific Region: Establishing a network of regional case studies
APN proposal submitted
Sour
ce: D
iane
Pat
aki
Energy and Carbon: Options and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas signature over the next 50 years
By using a mix of:energy strategies (renewables, conservation, cogeneration, efficiency increases) carbon sequestration (in terrestrial biotic, geological and oceanic sinks)
agricultural practices linked with non-CO2 emissions.
2. To develop and analyse a suite of pathways (scenarios)
1. To assess mitigation and adaptation options against environmental, social and economic (triple-bottom-line) criteria, including:
(1) effectiveness(2) technological feasibility; (3) institutional viability; (4) economic viability; (5) social acceptability; (6) non-greenhouse impacts
Workshop proposal for 2003Australia as a case study
Impacts of land use/cover onthe C cycle: fire, erosion, plantations, agriculture, pasture
APN-GCTE-GCP, Kobe, 2001Publication due: Dec. 2002
Publication: Land Use and the C Cycle in Asia Pacific
Quantifying Terrestrial Carbon Sinks : Science, Technology and Policy Wengen, Switzerland, September 25 - 27, 2002
Wengen Series-GCP-GCTEPublication due: Feb 2004
Publication:Terrestrial Sinks and their Policy Relevance
Atmospheric Composition and Associated Climate Change
IPCC 20011
Toward CO2 Stabilization:Issues, Strategies, and ConsequencesWk: Feb. 2003, Ubatuba, Brazil SCOPE-GCP Synthesis Activity Publication due: End 2003
State-of-the-art Synthesis:Towards CO2 Stabilization
SCOPE Series
1. current status of the carbon cycle; 2. future trends in the carbon cycle; 3. potential for deliberate management of the C cycle; 4. carbon-climate-human interactions.
Topics:
Science: Rh in soils, freshwater, and coastal zones; disturbanc.; land use change.Methods: modeling, scaling, experimental approaches
Publication due: 2004
Publication: Carbon Oxidation Fluxes and Processes
IGBP Book Series
Proposal under development
Science Themes
• Focus 1: Patterns and Variability– A1.1: Enhancing observational knowledge of major C stores and fluxes– A1.2: Model-data fusion and model development– A1.3: Comprehensive regional and sectoral carbon budgets
• Focus 2: Processes, Controls and Interactions– A2.1: Mechanisms and feedbacks controlling carbon fluxes– A2.2: Carbon consequences of regional development pathways– A2.3: Emergent properties of the coupled carbon-climate-human system
• Focus 3: Future Dynamics of the Carbon Cycle– A3.1 Future of terrestrial and ocean sinks and sources– A3.2 Future of FF emissions– A3.3: Carbon21 - Integrated management strategies
• Synthesis, communication, coordination
Atmospheric CO2 and associated warming
Thousands of Years (x1000)
180
280
Global Carbon Project 2001IPCC 2001