FARMWISE - SAGISb).pdf · Total available 6 601 560 9 687 000 3 367 448 SAGIS Deliveries 6 189 417...
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12 February 2019 Nico Hawkins General Manager FARMWISE
Transcript of FARMWISE - SAGISb).pdf · Total available 6 601 560 9 687 000 3 367 448 SAGIS Deliveries 6 189 417...
12 February 2019
Nico Hawkins
General Manager
FARMWISE
Maize
White Maize: Production & Producer DeliveriesCEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries (2018/19 Progr. 1 May ‘18 – 1 Feb ‘18)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19Progr.
May-Dec
18/19Proj.
WHITE MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES
CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield)
S&DEC
Ton Yield
1 May '18 - 1 Feb '19
Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries
White maize: Production, Retention & Deliveries
2018/19 * 2017/18 2016/17
Ton Ton Ton
CEC Production 6 801 560 9 916 000 3 408 500
Less Retentions 200 000 229 000 41 052
Total available 6 601 560 9 687 000 3 367 448
SAGIS Deliveries 6 189 417 9 268 593 3 551 822
Difference 412 143 418 407 -184 374
* 2018/19 - 1 May '18 - 1 Feb '19
Source: Sagis and CEC
White Maize: Imports & Exports (2018/19 Progr. 1 May ‘18 – 25 Jan ‘19)
Raw material
0
150 000
300 000
450 000
600 000
750 000
900 000
1 050 000
1 200 000
1 350 000
1 500 000
1 650 000
1 800 000
1 950 000
2 100 000
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19Progr.
May-Dec
18/19Proj.
WHITE MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS
Imports Exports S&DEC
Ton
1 May '18 - 25 Jan '19
White Maize: Exports (2018/19 Progr. 1 May ‘18 – 25 Jan ‘19)
Raw material – Major destinations
Italy13.4%
Botswana43.6%
Lesotho10.7%
Spain5.1%
Mozambique15.4%
Nambia9.0%
Swaziland2.9%
White Maize Exports1 May '18 - 25 Jan '19
Progr. Total: ton347 751
Yellow Maize: Production & Producer DeliveriesCEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries
(2018/19 Progr. 1 May ‘18 – 25 Jan ‘19)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
7 000 000
8 000 000
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19Progr.
May-Dec
18/19Proj.
YELLOW MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES
CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) S&DEC
Ton Yield
1 May '18 - 1 Feb '19
Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries
Yellow maize: Production, Retention & Deliveries
2018/19 * 2017/18 2016/17
Ton Ton Ton
CEC Production 6 129 650 6 904 000 4 370 000
Less Retentions 350 000 352 000 286 664
Total available 5 779 650 6 552 000 4 083 336
SAGIS Deliveries 5 432 804 6 360 089 3 917 778
Difference 346 846 191 911 165 558
* 2018/19 - 1 May '18 - 1 Feb '19
Source: Sagis and CEC
Yellow Maize: Imports & Exports
Raw material(2018/19 Progr. 1 May ‘18 – 25 Jan ‘19)
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 000
1 800 000
2 000 000
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19Progr.
May-Dec
18/19Proj.
YELLOW MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS
Imports Exports S&DEC
Ton
1 May '18 - 25 Jan '19
Yellow Maize: Exports (2018/19 Progr. 1 May ‘18 – 25 Jan ‘19)
Raw material – Major destinations
Thaiwan7.4%
Japan10.5%
Mozambique11.2%
Italy6.9%
Vietnam47.8%
Korea, Dem14.7%
Other7.6%
Yellow Maize Exports1 May '18 - 25 Jan '19
Progr. Total: ton1 445 481
Maize Exports: SARS FOB Prices
Exports Tariff line 1005.90.90 Maize - Other including:
Tariff line 1005.90.10 Maize - Dried Kernels
Country TonFOB value
R'000
Rand
per ton
Algeria 78.000 620.22 7 951.54
Angola 404.170 1 797.18 4 446.59
Argentina 125.000 582.97 4 663.76
Australia 19.762 176.25 8 918.72
Bahrain 75.048 634.92 8 460.23
Benin 104.000 788.02 7 577.13
Botswana 155 155.374 344 446.07 2 220.01
Cameroon 50.000 411.86 8 237.12
China 0.205 9.23 45 019.51
Congo 21.600 42.31 1 958.89
Congo Dem Rep Of 11.911 336.16 28 223.18
Cote D Ivoire 1 915.540 15 227.96 7 949.70
Egypt 225.001 1 425.97 6 337.61
France 14.498 271.51 18 726.95
Gambia 5 230.777 31 745.23 6 068.93
Georgia 125.000 883.82 7 070.56
Germany 22.000 173.93 7 905.73
Ghana 20 470.672 61 754.00 3 016.71
India 6 148.320 43 076.08 7 006.15
Ireland 0.008 0.53 66 625.00
Israel 20.180 110.31 5 466.30
Italy 128 000.000 323 363.94 2 526.28
Japan 150 584.751 399 697.02 2 654.30
Jordan 312.000 2 155.20 6 907.70
Kenya 892.303 7 612.72 8 531.54
Korea, Rep Of 150 924.700 404 559.73 2 680.54
Korea, Dem Peoples 1 288.000 4 349.18 3 376.69
Lebanon 47.988 270.81 5 643.37
Lesotho 47 373.217 108 159.63 2 283.14
Country TonFOB value
R'000
Rand
per ton
Madagascar 3.747 59.73 15 940.69
Malawi 30.637 345.27 11 269.55
Malaysia 352.605 3 150.09 8 933.76
Maldives 0.110 9.20 83 654.55
Mauritius 52.730 386.00 7 320.35
Mozambique 72 460.778 170 907.53 2 358.62
Namibia 63 130.992 155 732.89 2 466.82
Nigeria 104.035 809.57 7 781.65
Pakistan 468.000 3 767.25 8 049.68
Qatar 40.825 381.99 9 356.95
Russian Federation 1 072.110 8 040.00 7 499.23
Saint Helena 7.161 32.39 4 523.11
Sierra Leone 26.000 196.42 7 554.54
Singapore 53 827.008 144 685.86 2 687.98
Sri Lanka 555.959 4 616.69 8 304.01
Swaziland 79 160.726 170 221.31 2 150.33
Taiwan, Prov of China 52 220.450 137 957.52 2 641.83
Tanzania 0.542 61.54 113 540.09
Thailand 3 232.986 30 029.79 9 288.56
Togo 442.000 3 317.95 7 506.68
Turkey 26.000 207.30 7 973.15
Uganda 24.078 123.60 5 133.19
Ukraine 24.948 240.92 9 657.05
United Arab Emirates 8 835.980 67 132.79 7 597.66
United Kingdom 504.975 3 122.30 6 183.07
Unknown 1 584.886 4 789.91 3 022.24
Vietnam 695 008.874 1 856 527.80 2 671.23
Zambia 582.503 3 890.28 6 678.56
Zimbabwe 1 976.172 18 466.90 9 344.78
Total 1 705 397.843 4 543 893.52 2 664.42
Progr. May - Dec 18Source: SARS
(Progr. May – Dec ‘18)
Maize
2019/20
Production
Scenario’s
Maize production scenarios
for 2019/20 Marketing season%
T/ha Ton Ha T/ha Ton Ha T/ha Ton Possibility
1 1 480 600 4.44 6 579 460 1 045 200 5.29 5529740 2 525 800 4.79 12 109 200 0
2 1 257 000 4.44 5 581 080 1 011 900 5.29 5 352 951 2 268 900 4.82 10 934 031 0
3 1 148 400 4.52 5 190 768 966 000 5.50 5 313 000 2 114 400 4.97 10 503 768 10
4 1 148 400 3.66 4 198 360 966 000 5.71 5 511 748 2 114 400 4.59 9 710 108 40
5 1 148 400 3.42 3 926 403 966 000 5.07 4 898 907 2 114 400 4.17 8 825 310 10
6 1 035 900 4.12 4 268 178 911 500 5.49 5 002 143 1 947 400 4.76 9 270 321 30
7 1 023 480 4.10 4 196 000 885 000 5.46 4 828 148 1 908 480 4.73 9 024 148 10
2016/17 3.27 4.33
1 Area and Yield = 10 year ave
2 CEC Peliminary area : Yield = 10 year ave
AREA = % INTENTIONS FOR DRYLAND
3 Area FS and NW = 80%, rest = 100% : Yield = 4 year ave
4 Area FS and NW = 80%, rest = 100% : Yield = 4 year ave minus 30% for FS and NW
5 Area FS and NW = 80%, rest = 100% : Yield = 4 year ave minus 40% for FS and NW
6 Area FS and NW = 70%, rest = 100% : Yield = 4 year ave minus 20% for FS and NW
7 Area FS and NW = 70%, rest = 95% : Yield = 4 year ave minus 20% for FS and NW
Yellow TotaalWhite
Ha
White Maize:
Supply & Demand
(Ton)
Scenario Scenario
4 6
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Dec/18 Dec/18 Dec/18
2018/19 2019/20 2019/20
CEC (Crop Estimate) (2018/19 less 250 000 ton) 6 551 560 4 198 360 4 268 178
CEC (Retention) 200 000 150 000 150 000
Min Early deliveries current 117 369 150 000 150 000
Plus Early deliveries next 150 000 150 000 150 000
Available for the commercial market 6 384 191 4 048 360 4 118 178
SUPPLY
Opening stock (1 May) 2 428 653 1 691 844 1 691 844
Prod deliveries* 6 351 560 4 048 360 4 118 178
Imports 0 0 0
Early deliveries (Net)** 32 631 0 0
Surplus 10 000 10 000 10 000
Total Supply 8 822 844 5 750 204 5 820 022
DEMAND
Processed for the local market 6 512 000 4 862 000 4 862 000
- human 4 650 000 4 650 000 4 650 000
- animal and industrial 1 850 000 200 000 200 000
- gristing 12 000 12 000 12 000
Withdrawn by producers 16 000 16 000 16 000
Released to end-consumers 30 000 30 000 30 000
Net receipts(-)/disp(+) 5 000 5 000 5 000
Deficit
Local demand 6 563 000 4 913 000 4 913 000
Exports 568 000 468 000 468 000
- products 68 000 68 000 68 000
- whole maize 500 000 400 000 400 000
Total Demand 7 131 000 5 381 000 5 381 000
Ending Stock (30 Apr) 1 691 844 369 204 439 022
- processed p/month 542 666.7 405 166.7 405 166.7
- months' stock 3.1 0.9 1.1
- days' stock 94.8 27.7 33.0
Yellow Maize:
Supply & Demand(Ton)
Scenario Scenario
4 5
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Dec/18 Dec/18 Dec/18
2018/19 2019/20 2019/20
CEC (Crop Estimate) (2018/19 less 200 000 ton) 5 959 650 5 511 748 5 002 143
CEC (Retention) 350 000 350 000 350 000
Min Early deliveries current 122 548 350 000 350 000
Plus Early deliveries next 350 000 350 000 350 000
Available for the commercial market 5 837 102 5 161 748 4 652 143
SUPPLY
Opening stock (1 May) 1 260 823 1 355 925 1 355 925
Prod deliveries* 5 609 650 5 161 748 4 652 143
Imports 150 000 485 000 995 000
Early deliveries(netto) 227 452 0 0
Surplus 10 000 10 000 10 000
Total Supply 7 257 925 7 012 673 7 013 068
DEMAND
Processed 4 062 000 5 762 000 5 762 000
-human 550 000 550 000 550 000
-animal + industriel 3 500 000 5 200 000 5 200 000
-gristing 12 000 12 000 12 000
Withdrawn by producers 50 000 50 000 50 000
Released to end-consumers 140 000 140 000 140 000
Net receipts(-)/disp(+) 10 000 10 000 10 000
Deficit
Local demand 4 262 000 5 962 000 5 962 000
Exports 1 640 000 340 000 340 000
-products 140 000 140 000 140 000
-whole maize 1 500 000 200 000 200 000
Total Demand 5 902 000 6 302 000 6 302 000
Ending Stock (30 Apr) 1 355 925 710 673 711 068
- processed p/month 338 500.0 480 166.7 480 166.7
- months' stock 4.0 1.5 1.5
- days' stock 121.8 45.0 45.0
Total Maize:
Supply & Demand(Ton)
Scenario Scenario
4 6
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Dec/18 Dec/18 Dec/18
2018/19 2019/20 2019/20
CEC (Crop Estimate) (2018/19 less 450 000 ton) 12 511 210 9 710 108 9 270 321
CEC (Retention) 550 000 500 000 500 000
Min Early deliveries current 117 369 150 000 150 000
Plus Early deliveries next 500 000 500 000 500 000
Available for the commercial market 12 343 841 9 560 108 9 120 321
SUPPLY
Opening stock (1 May) 3 689 476 3 047 769 3 047 769
Prod deliveries* 11 961 210 9 210 108 8 770 321
Imports 150 000 485 000 995 000
Early deliveries (Net)** 260 083 0 0
Surplus 20 000 20 000 20 000
Total Supply 16 080 769 12 762 877 12 833 090
DEMAND
Processed for the local market 10 574 000 10 624 000 10 624 000
- human 5 200 000 5 200 000 5 200 000
- animal and industrial 5 350 000 5 400 000 5 400 000
- gristing 24 000 24 000 24 000
Withdrawn by producers 66 000 66 000 66 000
Released to end-consumers 170 000 170 000 170 000
Net receipts(-)/disp(+) 15 000 15 000 15 000
Deficit 0 0 0
Local demand 10 825 000 10 875 000 10 875 000
Exports 2 208 000 808 000 808 000
- products 208 000 208 000 208 000
- whole maize 2 000 000 600 000 600 000
Total Demand 13 033 000 11 683 000 11 683 000
Ending Stock (30 Apr) 3 047 769 1 079 877 1 150 090
- processed p/month 881 166.7 885 333.3 885 333.3
- months' stock 3.5 1.2 1.3
- days' stock 105.2 37.1 39.5
Oilseeds
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1 000 000
1 100 000
1 200 000
1 300 000
1 400 000
1 500 000
1 600 000
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19Mar-Dec
Progr.
18/19Proj.
19/20Proj.
SOYBEANS: CEC Crop Est., Ha, Yield & SAGIS Deliveries
SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield)Ton Yield
(S&DEC) (CEC)
Soybeans: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries(2018/19: Prog. Mar – Dec ‘18)
Soybeans: Production & Producer deliveries
Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries
2017/18 2016/17
CEC Production 1 550 800 * 1 316 000 742 000
Less Retentions 27 000 27 000 32 000
Total available 1 490 947 1 289 000 710 000
SAGIS Deliveries 1 471 710 ** 1 290 218 713 660
Difference 19 237 -1 218 -3 660
* Final estimate
** SAGIS Progressive: 1 Mar 31 Dec '18
Soybean
Ton
2018/19
Soybeans: Imports & ExportsSummarised info
2018/19
Progressive
Mar - Dec '18
2017/18 2016/17
Import 6 432 27 508 271 098
Export 32 744 414 6 745
Source: SAGIS
Marketing year
Soybean
Ton
Soybeans: Imports for RSA(2018/19: Progr. Mar – Dec ‘18)
Month Ethiopia Malawi Mozambique Ukraine Zambia Month TotalProgressive
Total
March 2018 0 0 0 0 464 464 464
Apr 2018 0 0 0 0 677 677 1 141
May 2018 0 0 0 0 135 135 1 276
June 2018 0 0 0 0 791 791 2 067
July 2018 0 0 0 0 1 187 1 187 3 254
August 2018 99 0 0 0 0 99 3 353
September 2018 61 301 0 0 0 362 3 715
October 2018 0 224 0 0 240 464 4 179
November 2018 0 640 343 276 0 1 259 5 438
December 2018 0 625 0 369 0 994 6 432
TOTAL 2018/19 160 1 790 343 645 3 494 6 432
2018/19: Mar - Dec '18
Source: SAGIS
Ton
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1 000 000
1 100 000
1 200 000
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19Mar-Dec
Progr.
18/19Proj.
SOYBEANS: Processed
Human Animal feed (full fat soya) Crush (oil/oilcake)
Ton
Source:S&DEC
Soybeans: Consumption(2018/19 : Progr. Mar – Dec ‘18)
Soybeans: SARS FOB PricesImports per country: 1201.90 Soybeans – whether or not broken2018/19: Progr. Mar – Dec ’18
Country Ton FOB value R'000 FOB Rand/ton
China 5.025 112.76 22 440.53
Ethiopia 220.000 855.20 3 887.27
France 1.500 25.82 17 213.33
Japan 0.001 0.02 20 000.00
Malawi 30.200 54.09 1 790.89
Mozambique 586.000 4 464.39 7 618.41
South Africa 92.140 373.58 4 054.48
Switzerland 0.006 0.01 1 666.67
Taiwan, Prov of China 0.099 0.30 3 083.16
Thailand 0.079 1.53 19 367.09
Ukraine 768.830 4 619.64 6 008.67
United Kingdom 0.001 0.74 744 000.00
United States 0.001 0.33 330 000.00
Zambia 3 281.896 13 788.90 4 201.50
All countries 4 985.778 24 297.32 4 873.33
Source: SARS
2018/19: Mar - Dec '18
Sunflower: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries(2018/19: Prog. Mar – Dec ‘18)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1 000 000
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19Mar-Dec
Progr.
18/19Proj.
19/20Proj.
SUNFLOWERSEED : CEC Crop Est., Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries
SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield)Ton
(S&DEC)
Yield
(CEC)
Sunflower: Production & Producer deliveries
Crop Estimate vs. Producer deliveries
2017/18 2016/17
CEC Production 858 605 * 874 000 755 000
SAGIS Deliveries 859 576 872 171 759 614
Difference -971 1 829 -4 614
* Final estimate
** SAGIS Progressive: 1 Mar 31 Dec '18
Sunflower
Ton
2018/19
Sunflower: Imports & ExportsSummarised info
2018/19
Progressive
Mar - Dec '18
2017/18 2016/17
Import 1 302 554 70 643
Export 413 274 205
Source: SAGIS
Marketing year
Sunflower
Ton
Sunflower: Consumption(2018/19 : Progr. Mar – Dec ‘18)
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1 000 000
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19Mar-Dec
Progr.
18/19Proj.
SUNFLOWERSEED : CrushedTon Source:
S&DEC
Oilseeds: Supply
& Demand
(Ton)
Soybeans Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Sunflower Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Area CEC CEC min 10% Area CEC CEC plus 20%
Yield 4 year ave 4 year min 10% Yield 4 year ave 4 year min 10%
Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate
Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan/19 Jan/19 Jan/19
2018/19 2019/20 2019/20 2018/19 2019/20 2019/20
CEC (Crop Estimate) 1 550 800 1 338 480 1 134 000 858 605 555 000 600 000
Retention 30 000 30 000 30 000 0 0 0
Available for the commercial market 1 520 800 1 308 480 1 104 000 858 605 555 000 600 000
SUPPLY
Opening stock (1 Mar) 330 535 538 535 538 535 154 841 107 646 107 646
Prod deliveries 1 520 800 1 308 480 1 104 000 858 605 555 000 600 000
Imports 6 700 0 0 1350 0 0
Surplus 11 000 11 000 11 000 8000 8000 8000
Total Supply 1 869 035 1 858 015 1 653 535 1 022 796 670 646 715 646
DEMAND
Processed* 1 285 000 1 335 000 1 335 000 906 250 626 250 656 250
- human 25 000 25 000 25 000 1 550 1 550 1 550
- animal feed (full fat soya) 210 000 210 000 210 000 4 700 4 700 4 700
- crush (oil/oilcake) 1 050 000 1 100 000 1 100 000 900 000 620 000 650 000
Withdrawn by producers 800 800 800 650 650 650
Released to end-consumers 600 600 600 2 200 2 200 2 200
Seed for planting purposes 10 600 10 600 10 600 3 550 3 550 3 550
Net receipts(-)/disp(+) 500 500 500 2 000 2 000 2 000
Deficit
Exports 33 000 0 0 500 500 500
Total Demand 1 330 500 1 347 500 1 347 500 915 150 635 150 665 150
Ending Stock (28 Feb) 538 535 510 515 306 035 107 646 35 496 50 496
- processed p/month 107 083 111 250 111 250 75 521 52 188 54 688
- months' stock 5.0 4.6 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.9
- days stock 153 140 84 43 21 28
Wheat
Wheat: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries
16
59
53
0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0
250 000
500 000
750 000
1 000 000
1 250 000
1 500 000
1 750 000
2 000 000
2 250 000
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19Progr.
Oct-Dec
18/19Proj.
WHEAT: CEC ESTIMATE vs. SAGIS DELIVERIES
CEC (Crop Est.) Prod deliveries (SAGIS) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield)S&DEC
Ton Yield
1 Oct '18 - 1 Feb '19
(Progr. 1 Oct ‘18 – 1 Feb ‘19)
Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries
Wheat Production, Retention & Deliveries
2018/19 * 2017/18 2016/17
Ton Ton Ton
CEC Production 1 789 800 1 535 000 1 910 000
Less Retentions 35 000 30 000 35 000
Total available 1 754 800 1 505 000 1 870 525
SAGIS Deliveries 1 659 530 1 547 486 1 699 546
Difference 95 270 -42 486 170 979
* 2018/19 - 1 Oct '18 - 1 Feb '18
Source: Sagis and CEC
Wheat Imports: Major origin of imports for RSA
Ukraine22 76312.34%
Russia83 35045.17%
Canada34 97818.96%
Argentina35 47619.23%
USA7 9504.31%
RSA: Wheat Imports per Country- 1 Oct '18 - 1 Feb '19 -
Total: t190 067
Lithuania182 241
8%
Germany282 312
13%Ukraine135 669
6%
Russia955 697
44%
Argentina132 433
6%
Other243 426
11%Romania101 449
5%
Latvia140 007
7%
RSA: Wheat Imports per Country- 1 Oct '17 - 30 Sep '18 -
Total: t2 173 234
Wheat Exports: 2018/19 Major origin of imports for RSA(Progr. 1 Oct ‘18 – 25 Jan ‘19)
Botswana
11 48649.08%
Lesotho8 201
35.04%
Namibia1 6887.21%
Zimbabwe2 0288.67%
Wheat Exports per country- 2018/19 -
Total exports: 23 403 t
Wheat Imports: SARS FOB
prices per country:
Wheat Other: 1001.99
2017/18: Prog. Oct ‘17 – Sep ’18
(12 months)
Country TonFOB value
R'000
FOB
Rand/ton
Argentina 148 329.211 340 651.96 2 296.59
Canada 96 830.015 297 428.09 3 071.65
Czech Republic 29 000.000 84 113.59 2 900.47
Germany 337 719.639 862 357.35 2 553.47
Ghana 0.097 0.16 1 628.87
India 4.334 30.07 6 937.93
Latvia 162 907.649 401 507.70 2 464.63
Lithuania 117 779.212 303 080.90 2 573.30
Namibia 100.018 220.34 2 203.02
Nigeria 0.431 0.99 2 301.62
Poland 30 644.519 90 148.06 2 941.74
Romania 51 863.300 125 175.66 2 413.57
Russian Federation 873 148.357 2 384 551.41 2 730.98
South Africa 25 581.445 74 506.01 2 912.50
Ukraine 11 000.000 29 551.42 2 686.49
United States 34 806.731 85 322.79 2 451.33
Unknown 68.026 339.55 4 991.47
Total 1 919 782.984 5 078 986.057 2 645.60
Progr. Oct 17 - Sep '18
Source: SARS
Wheat: Other - 1001.99
Estimate
Wheat Jan-19
17/18 18/19
CEC (Crop Estimate) 1 535 000 1 798 800
CEC (Retention) 30 000 35 000
SUPPLY
Opening stock (1 Oct) 341 424 721 534
Prod deliveries 1 547 486 1 763 800
Imports for RSA only 2 173 757 1 400 000
Surplus 5 611 8 000
Total Supply 4 068 278 3 893 334
DEMAND
Processed 3 207 944 3 303 000
-human 3 204 732 3 300 000
-animal 3 212 3 000
-gristing 0 0
Withdrawn by producers 884 1 300
Released to end-consumers 1 990 1 800
Seed for planting purposes 18 237 19 000
Net receipts(-)/disp(+) 4 992 5 000
Deficit
Exports 112 697 107 000
-products 36 848 37 000
-Whole wheat 75 849 70 000
Total Demand 3 346 744 3 437 100
Ending Stock (30 Sep) 721 534 456 234
- processed p/month 267 329 275 250
- months' stock 2.7 1.7
- days' stock 82 50
Final
Wheat: Supply & Demand: 2018/19 Season
Products for Human
Consumption
Maize Products
Maize Products manufactured 2018Jan – Dec ‘18 (12 months)
915 000
461 000
37 556
617 000
900 000 968 000
357 886
131 000
293 000
2 388 000
266 000
227 00077 000
10 376
2 125 000 2 181 000 2 149 000
2 869 565
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
1975
/76
1976
/77
1977
/78
1978
/79
1979
/80
1980
/81
1981
/82
1982
/83
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
Maize products Historic Information
Sifted WM Meal Special WM Meal Super WM Meal Unsifted WM Meal Total WM MealTon
Maize Products: Historic Consumption Info1975/76 – 2017/18
White Maize ProductsProgr. May – Dec ‘18 (8 months)
Super1 694 134
77.3%
Special255 27711.6%
Sifted24 6871.1%
Unsifted5 7740.3%
Other213 138
9.7%
White Maize Meal Products
Total Human Consumption: 2 193 010
(May - Dec '18)8 Months
Yellow Maize ProductsProgr. May – Dec ‘18 (8 months)
Special6 3462.3%
Super18 5406.8%
Rice/Grits/Samp173 29163.7%
Sifted16 4406.0%
Other57 24521.1%
Yellow Maize Meal Products
Total Human Consumption: 271 862
(May - Dec '18)8 Months
Maize Products: Price Index
Wheat Products
Wheaten Products: ConsumptionProgr. Jan – Dec ‘18 (12 months)
Per capita consumptionWheaten
products
Panbaked
breadPanbaked
bread
Total Maize
products
Oilseeds
products
Ton Ton Units Ton Ton
Manufactured 3 270 362 1 523 636 2 312 893 351 2 464 872 2 067 919
+ Imports 23 555 4 257 810 957
- Exports -31 727 -55 288 -70 326
Total "consumed" 3 262 190 1 523 636 2 312 893 351 2 413 841 2 808 550
Total population 56 522 000 56 522 000 56 522 000 56 522 000 56 522 000
Kg Kg Units Kg Kg
Per capita consumption 57.72 26.96 40.92 42.71 49.69
12 months (Jan - Dec '18)
Wheat Products (Manufactured, Imported & Exported)(Progr. Oct – Dec ‘18)
Wheaten Products : Bread Flour (Ton)(Jan – Dec ’18 : 12 months)
White1 142 040
68.24%
Brown410 74824.54%
Whole wheat3 0220.18%
Other Flour (Industrial)
117 6597.03%
Bread Flour-Jan to Dec '18-
- Ton -
Total: Bread Flour: ton1 673 469
Wheaten Products: Pan baked bread (Units)(Jan – Dec ’18 : 12 months) Jan - Dec '18
(12 months)
Units
WHITE BREAD
400g 1 654 182 0.1
600g 254 998 855 11.0
700g 865 453 279 37.4
Other 9 463 569 0.4
White Bread (Total Units) 1 131 569 885 48.9
BROWN BREAD
400g 821 913 0.0
600g 313 037 345 13.5
700g 815 780 576 35.3
Other 17 562 854 0.8
Brown Bread (Total Units) 1 147 202 688 49.6
WHOLE WHEAT
400g 15 286 0.0
600g 588 478 0.0
700g 6 111 521 0.3
Other 23 487 041 1.0
Whole Wheat (Total Units) 30 202 326 1.3
OTHER
400g 68 626 0.0
600g 333 988 0.0
700g 136 434 0.0
Other 3 379 404 0.1
Other (Total Units) 3 918 452 0.2
Total 2 312 893 351 100.0
Pan baked bread
manufactured% of Total
Wheaten Products: Pan-baked bread per type
(Jan – Dec ’18 : 12 months)
White1 131 569 885
48.9%
Brown1 147 202 688
49.6%
Whole wheat30 202 326
1.3%
Other3 918 452
0.2%
Panbaked Bread per type-Jan to Sep '18-
- Units -
Total:Ton
Units2 312 893 3511 523 636
57 60
51
73
89
56
56
57
93 93
92
87
5955
60 62
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1949
/50
1951
/52
1953
/54
1955
/56
1957
/58
1959
/60
1961
/62
1963
/64
1965
/66
1967
/68
1969
/70
1971
/72
1973
/74
1975
/76
1977
/78
1979
/80
1981
/82
1983
/84
1985
/86
1987
/88
1989
/90
1991
/92
1993
/94
1995
/96
1997
/98
1999
/00
2001
/02
2003
/04
2005
/06
2007
/08
2009
/10
2011
/12
2013
/14
2015
/16
2017
/18
Per capita whole Wheat & Maize whole grain consumption
Whole wheat Kg/head Maize Whole Grain Kg/head
I:Wheaten Prod Hist Info - Maize: Maize Prod Hist Info
Kg/head
Maize & Wheat: Per capita whole grain
Historic Consumption Info – 1949/50 – 2017/18
Grain + Oilseeds Products: Per Capita ConsumptionProgr. Jan – Dec ‘18 (12 months)
Per capita consumption Wheaten productsTotal Maize
products
Oilseeds
products
Ton Ton Ton
Manufactured 3 270 362 2 464 872 2 067 919
+ Imports 23 555 4 257 810 957
- Exports -31 727 -55 288 -70 326
Total "consumed" 3 262 190 2 413 841 2 808 550
Total population 56 522 000 56 522 000 56 522 000
Kg Kg Kg
Per capita consumption 57.72 42.71 49.69
Maize = Total less chop
12 months (Jan - Dec '18)
Thank you
