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Farms.com Risk Management 20165th Annual Crop Tour Review

- Special Section -

Did all of the corn acres get planted or did someget switched to soybeans? And by how much?

Will La Nina affect the U.S. 2016 growing season?

Are we on the verge of a 4th record crop andwhat will happen to prices?

2016 Bin Busting Record U.S. Corn and Soybean Crops?

We Travelled 12 states:

riskmanagement.farms.com/tourLEARNMORE

HARVESTSERVICESA division of Ralph Mckay Inc.

• Harvest Feeder Chains• Conventional Concaves• Rotary Conacves• Cover Plates• Airfoil Chaffer• Adjustable Sieves

• Poly Skid Shoe Kits for all makes• Auger Liners

• Grain Tank Liners• Poly Auger Fingers

• Baler bands• Stock Stompers

2016 Bin Busting Record U.S. Corn and Soybean Crops?

Moe Agostino, Chief Commodity Strategist with Farms.com Risk Management conducted his 2016 5th Annual U.S. 12 state Corn Belt Crop Tour, which began on June 25th in Ohio and ended on July 10th, 2016 in the state of Michigan. This year’s tour provided a lot of variability from county to county, field to field and farmer to farmer.

In the first week of the tour, Moe observed that the month of June was drier than the past few years with temperatures averaging 20-25% higher than normal. Many farmers were saying that they had experienced summer weather already in the month of June. This led to many U.S. farmers complain-ing about rolling corn, and cracks were showing up in the ground. Despite a good start to the grow-ing season many farmers were looking for much needed moisture. Farmers were also complaining

about dealing with weeds in soy-beans, particularly Mares Tail. 50% of the U.S. corn crop was planted by April 1st while the remaining 50% was planted in late May due to delays from a very wet spring. What a difference a year makes! A soy-bean field in West Central, Indiana, on June 27, 2015, was under water vs. a soybean field that was almost waist high in the state of Iowa on July 7, 2016. Big vegetation in soybeans usually concerns us this early in the season as sometimes it’s all show and poor results.

However, despite these less than ideal/perfect growing conditions in the second week of the tour, many of those farmers who were dry received million dollar rains by the first few days of July (by as much as 1, 2, 3 – 4.5 inches). Eight to nine out of ten farmers who we interviewed on tour received rains, forcing us to conclude that 80%

Source: Farms.com Risk Management

of the U.S. Midwest was looking good while 10-20% was having some issues. A majority of the U.S. Corn Belt area that grow 20 million bushels or more of corn and soybeans were a garden spot, or Gods Country, with Iowa ranking the highest at a 9 out of 10 and Michigan the lowest at 5-6 (due to a very dry June). Indiana and Ohio had fallen behind to a late plant-ing season, but we are concluding that 50% of the U.S. corn crop had pollinated in the first half of July with flying colors. The remaining 50% that is expected to pollinate in the latter half of July needs to avoid heat stress and needs more moisture, or the average trend line yields may need to drop.

Both U.S. corn and soybean crops need to have ideal growing conditions in the month of July, August and September like in 2015 to finish strong and achieve record yields and above average kernel weights. La Nina had not really shown its power yet in the U.S. Midwest as a neutral phase has provided enough moisture and heat to produce the best crop conditions in 10 years with corn at 76% and soybeans at 71% good to excellent.

We are now forecasting an above average U.S. corn and soybean crop with a record U.S. corn yield of

170 bushels per acre (bpa) or bet-ter, and 48 bpa or better on soys, but weather in the months of July, August and September and kernel weights will be the deciding factor. 80% of the U.S. Midwest could trump any issues the 20% is having. The old record high for corn was in 2014, at 171 bpa, and soybeans at 48 bpa in 2015. The USDA says that 90% of their corn yield esti-mate comes from July weather. We baked the U.S. soybeans in 2012, but still made a crop with moisture in August/September during the critical pod filling stage. For those who want to know more about where prices are headed and what the new game plan is, sign up for an 8-week free trial commodity email and text marketing subscrip-tion and receive our Special Report: The 2015 US Corn Belt Crop Tour Results, Summary, New Game Plan and Price Target Outlook! Call Moe at 877-438-5729 x5028. Last but not least, special thanks goes out to you our followers, our valued clients and our sponsors, Pride Seeds and Penta Tillage.

Wild Wheat Harvest. What to do now?2016 was one of the earliest wheat harvests in Ontario. How will this impact your farming operation? Peter Johnson will discuss the 2016 wild wheat harvest and provide his insights into what impact this wheat harvest will have on future crops. Peter Johnson is an Agronomist and Independent Consultant in Southwestern Ontario. He records “Wheat Pete’s Word”, a weekly podcast update with current cropping information and answers to questions from growers. Peter retired from OMAFRA after a thirty-year career culminating as the Provincial Cereal Specialist. In 1997, Peter was honoured with the TR Hilliard Distinguished Agricultural Extension Award. His passion for agriculture continues today.

Residue Management is an important compo-nent of crop production in today’s agriculture industry. Morris Sagriff is an Ontario agronomist who worked with a leading seed firm for more than a quarter of a century. His goal when working with farmers is to share his knowledge and professional experience to help farmers get the most from their production. Morris believes that by gaining a better understanding of the dynamics of modern day agriculture, farmers will be able to better understand the growing season and the interactions of the environment and management that can have both a positive and negative affect on the performance of the 2016 crop in Southern Ontario.

MORRIS SAGRIFFResidue Management

PETER JOHNSONAgronomist

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