Farm Bill ARC and PLC Payout Projections 2014-2018 Greg Halich [email protected] 311...
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Transcript of Farm Bill ARC and PLC Payout Projections 2014-2018 Greg Halich [email protected] 311...
Farm Bill ARC and PLC Payout
Projections 2014-2018
Greg [email protected]
311 CE Barnhart Dept. Agricultural EconomicsUniversity of KentuckyLexington, KY 40546
Agricultural Economics
Corn and Soybean Prices2015-2018
Price Scenario: Corn Beans Wheat
Low $3.00 $7.75 $4.25 Med $4.00 $10.00 $5.75 High $5.00 $12.25 $7.25
Agricultural Economics
Corn and Soybean Prices2015-2018
Price Scenario: Corn Beans Wheat
Low $3.00 $7.75 $4.25 Low-Med $3.50 $8.88 $5.00 Med $4.00 $10.00 $5.75
Agricultural Economics
PLCCorn $3.70
Soybeans $8.40
Wheat $5.50
85% base acres
90% payment yield (for updated yields)
→ 76.5% multiplier
ExampleCorn 150 bu production history
$3.00/bu avg. marketing year price
$3.70 – $3.00 = $.70/bu margin
$.70/bu margin x 150 bu x .765
= $80/base acre PLC payout
Agricultural Economics
Three Farm Level Yields
Corn YieldSoybean
YieldWheat Yield
125 bu 39.0 bu 60 bu
150 bu 45.5 bu 70 bu
175 bu 51.5 bu 80 buNote: Farm level avg. yields before 90% payment adjustment.
Baseline Scenario 2014 (per acre)$10.00 Soybeans
$3.50 Corn $6.00 Wheat
Estimated PLC Payment
Corn
PaymentSoybeansPayment
WheatPayment
125 bu corn $19 $0 $0
150 bu corn $23 $0 $0
175 bu corn $27 $0 $0
Note: per base acre
Baseline Scenario 2015-18 (per acre)$10.00 Soybeans
$4.00 Corn $5.75 Wheat
Estimated PLC Payment
Corn
PaymentSoybeansPayment
WheatPayment
125 bu corn $0 $0 $0
150 bu corn $0 $0 $0
175 bu corn $0 $0 $0
Note: per base acre
Low Price Scenario 2015-18 (per acre)$7.75 Soybeans
$3.00 Corn $4.25 Wheat
Estimated PLC Payment
Corn
PaymentSoybeansPayment
WheatPayment
125 bu corn $67 $19 $57
150 bu corn $80 $23 $67
175 bu corn $94 $26 $77
Note: per base acre
Low-Med Price 2015-18 (per acre)$8.88 Soybeans
$3.50 Corn $5.00 Wheat
Estimated PLC Payment
Corn
PaymentSoybeansPayment
WheatPayment
125 bu corn $19 $0 $23
150 bu corn $23 $0 $27
175 bu corn $27 $0 $31
Note: per base acre
Agricultural Economics
ARC (County)
85% base acres
86% program crop revenue benchmark
10% payment range
→ 76 – 86% coverage
Estimated ARC Coverage Larue County 2014
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Olympic Avg Yield 150.0 47.3 63.3
Olympic Avg Price $5.29 $12.27 $6.39
Olympic Avg Revenue $793 $581 $405
Revenue Guarantee (start) $682 $499 $348
Revenue Guarantee (end) $603 $441 $308
Baseline Scenario 2014 (per acre)$10.00 Soybeans
$3.50 Corn $6.00 Wheat ARC Payout
Corn
PaymentSoybeansPayment
WheatPayment
125 bu corn $67 $25 $0
150 bu corn $67 $25 $0
175 bu corn $67 $25 $0
Note: Assumed 143 bu corn, 47 bu soybeans, 74 bu wheat 2014; per base acre
Estimated ARC Coverage Larue County 2015
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Olympic Avg Yield 140.0 46.3 67.7
Olympic Avg Price $5.29 $12.27 $6.56
Olympic Avg Revenue $740 $568 $444
Revenue Guarantee (start) $637 $489 $382
Revenue Guarantee (end) $563 $432 $337
Baseline Scenario 2015 (per acre)$10.00 Soybeans
$4.00 Corn $5.75 Wheat ARC Payout
Corn
PaymentSoybeansPayment
WheatPayment
125 bu corn $48 $7 $2
150 bu corn $48 $7 $2
175 bu corn $48 $7 $2
Note: Assumed 143/47/74 bu corn/beans/wheat 2014; 145/48/66 bu corn/beans/wheat 2015
Med-Low Price 2015 (per acre)$8.88 Soybeans
$3.50 Corn $5.00 Wheat ARC Payout
Corn
PaymentSoybeansPayment
WheatPayment
125 bu corn $63 $48 $38
150 bu corn $63 $48 $38
175 bu corn $63 $48 $38
Note: Assumed 143/47/74 bu corn/beans/wheat 2014; 145/48/66 bu corn/beans/wheat 2015
Low Price Scenario 2015 (per acre)$7.75 Soybeans
$3.00 Corn $4.25 Wheat ARC Payout
Corn
PaymentSoybeansPayment
WheatPayment
125 bu corn $63 $48 $38
150 bu corn $63 $48 $38
175 bu corn $63 $48 $38
Note: Assumed 143/47/74 bu corn/beans/wheat 2014; 145/48/66 bu corn/beans/wheat 2015
ARC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)$4.00 Corn $10.00 Soybeans $5.75 Wheat
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $67 $25 $0
2015 $48 $7 $2
2016 $15 $22 $15
2017 $0 $0 $0
2018 $0 $0 $0
Note: Assumed 143/47/74 bu corn/beans/wheat 2014; 145/48/66 bu corn/beans/wheat 2015-2018
PLC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)$4.00 Corn $10.00 Soybeans $5.75 Wheat
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $23 $0 $0
2015 $0 $0 $0
2016 $0 $0 $0
2017 $0 $0 $0
2018 $0 $0 $0
ARC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)$4.00 Corn $10.00 Soybeans $5.75 Wheat
Yields Drop 20% in 2017
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $67 $25 $0
2015 $48 $7 $2
2016 $15 $22 $15
2017 $44 $47 $36
2018 $0 $0 $0
Note: Assumed 145/48/66 bu corn/beans/wheat 2015,16,18; 116/38/53 bu corn/beans/wheat 2017
PLC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)$4.00 Corn $10.00 Soybeans $5.75 Wheat
Yields Drop 20% in 2017
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $23 $0 $0
2015 $0 $0 $0
2016 $0 $0 $0
2017 $0 $0 $0
2018 $0 $0 $0
ARC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)$4.00 Corn $10.00 Soybeans $5.75 Wheat
Low Price Scenario 2017
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $67 $25 $0
2015 $48 $7 $2
2016 $15 $22 $15
2017 $51 $47 $36
2018 $0 $0 $0
Note: Assumed 143/47/74 bu corn/beans/wheat 2014; 145/48/66 bu corn/beans/wheat 2015-2018
PLC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)$4.00 Corn $10.00 Soybeans $5.75 Wheat
Low Price Scenario 2017
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $23 $0 $0
2015 $0 $0 $0
2016 $0 $0 $0
2017 $80 $23 $67
2018 $0 $0 $0
Sharp Increase and then Decrease in Prices
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $3.50 $10.00 $6.00
2015 $4.00 $10.00 $5.75
2016 $5.00 $12.25 $7.25
2017 $4.00 $10.00 $5.75
2018 $3.50 $8.88 $5.00
ARC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)Sharp Increase then Decrease in Prices
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $67 $25 $0
2015 $48 $7 $2
2016 $0 $0 $0
2017 $0 $21 $14
2018 $9 $15 $31
Average $25 $14 $9
Note: Assumed 143/47/74 bu corn/beans/wheat 2014; 145/48/66 bu corn/beans/wheat 2015-2018
PLC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)Sharp Increase then Decrease in Prices
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $23 $0 $0
2015 $0 $0 $0
2016 $0 $0 $0
2017 $0 $0 $0
2018 $23 $0 $27
Average $9 $0 $5
Major Drop in Prices
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $3.50 $10.00 $6.00
2015 $4.00 $10.00 $5.75
2016 $3.50 $8.88 $5.00
2017 $3.00 $7.75 $4.25
2018 $3.00 $7.75 $4.25
ARC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)Major Drop in Prices
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $67 $25 $0
2015 $48 $7 $2
2016 $59 $50 $39
2017 $50 $47 $36
2018 $33 $22 $34
Average $51 $30 $22
Note: Assumed 143/47/74 bu corn/beans/wheat 2014; 145/48/66 bu corn/beans/wheat 2015-2018
PLC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)Major Drop in Prices
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $23 $0 $0
2015 $0 $0 $0
2016 $23 $0 $27
2017 $80 $23 $67
2018 $80 $23 $67
Average $41 $9 $32
Even Worse Prices
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $3.50 $10.00 $6.00
2015 $3.50 $8.88 $5.00
2016 $3.00 $7.75 $4.25
2017 $2.50 $6.62 $3.50
2018 $3.00 $7.75 $4.25
ARC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)Even Worse Prices
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $67 $25 $0
2015 $63 $48 $38
2016 $58 $50 $39
2017 $49 $45 $36
2018 $22 $3 $33
Average $52 $34 $29
Note: Assumed 143/47/74 bu corn/beans/wheat 2014; 145/48/66 bu corn/beans/wheat 2015-2018
PLC Payout 2015-18 (per acre)Even Worse Prices
Corn Soybeans Wheat
2014 $23 $0 $0
2015 $23 $0 $0
2016 $80 $23 $67
2017 $138 $62 $107
2018 $80 $23 $67
Average $69 $21 $48
Agricultural Economics
Discussion
• ARC vs PLC
→ Corn
→ Soybeans
→ Wheat • PLC better with pessimistic prices. • PLC + SCO may be better overall• Low base acre % favors PLC + SCO