Fair Winds Calm Seas & Sunny Skies Future Trends For LG 2020
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Transcript of Fair Winds Calm Seas & Sunny Skies Future Trends For LG 2020
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Fair Winds Calm Seas &
Sunny Skies
Future Trends For LG 2020
Annimac / Anni Macbeth
Futurist & Trend Forecaster www.annimac.com.au
2006 Annual LGMA Conference Esplanade Hotel 27 October 2006 Fremantle WA
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 2
Smooth sailing through 2020
It’s not what happens
but how
you deal with
what happens
that makes a
successful journey
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 3
Successful Navigation LG survive the rough seas
identify the best
destination
chart the best course
thrive on the journey
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 4
Few Stormy Squalls Ahead
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting politico economic
values
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 5
Squalls are creating for LG
diversity of client demands
changing role of governance
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 6
Decisions
decisions
decisions …
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 7
Navigating the Challenges
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting politico economic
values
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 8
Exponential
Amount of change in 1 day
grandparents had in 1 year
Younger means faster
Navigating the Challenges 1 :
Speed of Change
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 9
I’m never having kids. I hear they take nine months to download.
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 10
By 2020
70 % of job types then
do not exist now
because
Driving all Change : Technology
Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 11
By 2020
80 % technology then
not imagined yet
Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 12
Imagine
what those
jobs in LG
might be . . .
Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 13
Your future receptionist ?
Japanese Robanoid 2006
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 14
Likely jobs in next 15 years ? Director of Neighbour
Relations Virtual Parks Manager Planner of Nano Environment Chief Imagination Officer Hacker Relations Manager Virtual Information Librarian Director of Emerging Thought Holographic Traffic Manager
Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change
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Technology
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Navigating the Challenges
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting political economic
values
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 17
Cost
of
fuel
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 18
Navigating the Challenges 2 : Peak Oil
Peak Oil - oil depletion
When demand for oil exceeds
supply
industry experts say by 2010 -
2014
max range by 2007 - 2020
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Peak Oil - depletion forecasts
Navigating the Challenges 2 : Peak Oil
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 20
LG can lead by example
Downsize energy use
Localise - self sufficiency
- trade & barter
Innovate - population migration
- sea/tree changers
- bio/passive fuels
Navigating the Challenges 2 : Peak Oil
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 21
Hybrid Electric Diesel Bus
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Solar Thermal Energy Production
Woking UK
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Navigating the Challenges
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting political economic
values
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 24
Trends of Climate Change
Global warming : +2° - +4°
Changing rainfall :
“ Eastern desert moving West
Coastal tropics moving South ”
Navigating the Challenges 3 : Climate Change
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Calling for Help
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LG can lead the way
Adapt planning schemes
Diversity rural zoning
Innovate agri biz
Waterwise incentives
Navigating the Challenges 3 : Climate Change
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 27
Navigating the Challenges
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting political economic
values
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 28
Sea / Tree changers ?
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 29
Demographic Changes Trends in Rural WA
Farming communities downsizing
Family farms corporatising Urban encroachment Ageing population Succession : youth issues Women as farm biz managers Slow uptake : tech &
knowledge Sea / tree change
Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures
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Generational gap
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Generational Differences
Gaps widening - technology driven
Baby Boomers 45-60 not handing over
Gen X 30-40 frustrated Me journeys
DotComs 15-30 choosing virtual world
Ferals -15 driving major change
Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures
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New
client
demands
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Clients’ Changing Demands
• personal service
• personal options
• environmental concerns
• social concerns
• ageing population issues
• Q B L quadruple bottom line
Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures
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LG can lead the way : values Customer driven : community first
Communication skills
Cooperation Teaming
Flexibility eg zoning, management
Innovative thinking
Risk taking
Multi tasking
Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures
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Different Thinking Models
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Navigating the Challenges
1. speed of all change
2. Peak Oil
3. climate change
4. demographic pressures
5. shifting politico economic
values
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 38
Virtual Life
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Public Attitudes shifting
• distrust of leaders
• increased global knowledge
• want options & say
• local power
• faster decisions, less
bureaucracy
• less governance
Navigating the Challenges 5 : Politico Economic Values Shifts
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 41
Two Tiered Government
• two tiers eventually
• LG gaining relevance
• regional structures less so
• likely trend :
• Federal with decreased powers
• LG with increased powers
Navigating the Challenges 5 : Politico Economic Values Shifts
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Big Biz & Community
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27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 43
Big Biz vs Community
• corporate social responsibility
rising
• community engagement rising
• QBL values
• partnership model
• win – win – win biz + people +
planet
Navigating the Challenges 5 : Politico Economic Values Shifts
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Albany Highway Williams 2004
Changing agribiz attitudes
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Fair Winds Calm Seas & Sunny Skies
Future for LG 2020
• Increasing role in governance
• Increasing partnerships • biz• community• govt agencies
• Increasing charting of future course
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Facing the future successfully :
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thank you www. annimac.com.au