Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.
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Transcript of Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.
![Page 1: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death,
miracles and resurrection
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
-0.25
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0.25
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1.00
Age
Greg J. DuncanDrew BaileyWinnie Yu
School of Education
University of California, Irvine
IQEarnings
Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection
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ImpactDeath
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IQ impacts in Perry
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
AgeSolid marker denotes p<.05
End of program
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Achievement impacts for Head Start 3 year olds
3 4 K 1st 3rd-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
Eff
ect
siz
e in s
d u
nit
s
Solid marker denotes p<.05
Letter-WordMath
End of program
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Cognitive impacts in 67 ECE studies
0 0-1 1-2 2-4 4+0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.23
0.10 0.090.05 0.06
Eff
ect
siz
e in s
d u
nit
s
Solid marker denotes p<.05
End of pro-gram
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0 5 11 17 23 29 35 41 47
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Months From Random Assignment
Perc
enta
ge E
mplo
yed F
ull-
Tim
e
Program pe-riod
Employment impacts for the 36-month Canadian Self-Sufficiency Program
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ImpactPersistence
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IQ impacts in Perry and Abecedarian
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
Age
Perry
Abecedarian
Solid marker denotes p<.05
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IQ and Earnings impacts in Perry
3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
Age
Age 27 earn-ings
Solid marker denotes p<.05
IQ
A “noncognitive”
miracle occurs…
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Earnings impacts for the Job Training Partnership Act Program
7-18 19-30-$500
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500Adult women Adult men Female youth
Months since random assignmentSolid marker denotes p<.05
Pro-gram
period
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Patterns of fade-out
A mess!
• Impacts fade out in some interventions but don’t in seemingly similar interventions
• Sometimes, for the same intervention, some impacts fade out but others emerge decades later
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Outline
I. OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE
II. OTHER AVENUES FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE
III. HOW TO RECONCILE ECE PROGRAM FADEOUT ON IQ WITH IMPACTS ON ADULT OUTCOMES?
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Outline
I. OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE
II. OTHER AVENUES FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE
III. HOW TO RECONCILE ECE PROGRAM FADEOUT ON IQ WITH IMPACTS ON ADULT OUTCOMES?
![Page 14: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
What conditions lead to impact persistence?
• the “right kinds” of skills or capacities, or
• the “right kinds” of environments
When interventions change:
![Page 15: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
What conditions lead to impact persistence?
• the “right kinds” of skills or capacities, or
• the “right kinds” of environments
When interventions change:
![Page 16: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
“Right kinds” of skills:
• Skills or behaviors fundamental for success in adulthood or for childhood attainments…
• that are malleable…
• and would not develop eventually in counterfactual conditions
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“Right kinds” of environments:
• Malleable features of environments that are fundamental for promoting the “right kinds” of skills and behaviors
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Fundamental and malleable skills
Fundamental Peripheral
More mallea
ble
Lessmallea
ble
• Conscientiousness (grit)
• g (IQ)
Who cares?
• Teaching to the test SAT test prep Flash cards• FAFSA rule knowledge?...
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Fundamental AND malleable skills?
• Math• Literacy
• Implicit theories (Dweck)
• Self-concept (Cohen) • Academic motivation
• Executive function• Emotional self-
regulation
• Background knowledge
• Fixed vs. malleable intelligence (Dweck)
• Self-worth (Cohen et al.)
• Math: number line, fractions, algebra
• Literacy• Background
knowledge• Executive function• Prosocial behaviors
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“Right kinds” of skills:
Skills or behaviors fundamental for success in adulthood or for childhood attainments…
that are malleable…
and would not develop eventually in counterfactual conditions
![Page 21: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Fundamental AND malleable skills?
• Math• Literacy
• Implicit theories (Dweck)
• Self-concept (Cohen) • Academic motivation
• Executive function• Emotional self-
regulation
• Background knowledge
• Fixed vs. malleable intelligence (Dweck)
• Self-worth (Cohen et al.)
• Math: number line, fractions, algebra
• Literacy• Background
knowledge• Executive function• Prosocial behaviors
Which would develop
eventually and therefore generate impact
fadeout?
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Pace of development in counterfactual conditionsNull/slow => no
fadeout?Eventually =>
fadeout?• Math• Literacy
• Implicit theories (Dweck)
• Self-concept (Cohen) • Academic motivation
• Executive function• Emotional self-
regulation
• Background knowledge
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Pace of development in counterfactual conditionsNull/slow => no
fadeout?Eventually =>
fadeout?• Fractions, algebra• Large vocabulary
• Implicit theories (Dweck)
• Self-concept (Cohen) • Academic motivation
• EF working memory• Emotional self-reg for
some
• Background knowledge
• Counting• Alphabet knowledge
• Implicit theories (Dweck)
• Self-concept (Cohen) • Academic motivation
• EF impulse control• Emotional self-reg for
most• Background knowledge
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Examples of impact persistence
• Algebra
– Chicago’s double-dose algebra
• Self-concept
– Value affirmation
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Persistent impacts of 9th grade double-dose algebra in Chicago
Source: Cortres et al. (2011)
ImpactB or higher in 9th-grade algebra
+13% *
A in 9th-grade algebra ns
Passed geometry in 10th grade +12% *Grade 11 math scores +.24 sd *
Graduated within 5 years +12% *Enrolled in any college +11% *
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Cohen values affirmation impacts on low-GPA Black students
Prein-terven-
tion
Term 1 Term 2 Term 3 Term 4 Term 1 Term 2 Term 3 Term 4
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Me
an
GPA
in
Co
re C
ou
rse
s
Year 1 Year 2
Program period
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Cohen caveats
• No impacts on higher-achieving Blacks and whites
• Some replication attempts show no consistent impacts (Dee, 2014)
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Conditions where “eventual” development in counterfactual may
lead to fadeout
– Impulse control by age
– Did the Canadian SSP accelerate return to labor force that would have happened anyway?
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Distraction time by age
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Age
Tim
e t
o s
olv
e c
on
-fl
ict
in m
s
Adult lev-els
Posner and Rothbart (2007)
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-12 -6 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49
-10
0
10
20
30
Months From Random Assignment
Perc
enta
ge E
mplo
yed F
ull-
Tim
e
Program pe-riod
Did Canadian SSP speed up employment that would have occurred anyway?
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-12 -6 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49
0
10
20
30
40
50
Months From Random Assignment
Perc
enta
ge E
mplo
yed F
ull-
Tim
e
Program pe-riod
Con-trol
group
Did Canadian SSP speed up employment that would have occurred anyway?
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-12 -6 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49
0
10
20
30
40
50
Months From Random Assignment
Perc
enta
ge E
mplo
yed F
ull-
Tim
e
Program pe-riod
Con-trol
group
Treat-ment group
Did Canadian SSP speed up employment that would have occurred anyway?
![Page 33: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
What conditions lead to impact persistence?
• the “right kinds” of skills or capacities, or
• the “right kinds” of environments
When interventions change:
![Page 34: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
“Right kinds” of environments:
• Malleable features of environments that are fundamental for promoting the “right kinds” of skills and behaviors
![Page 35: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
School quality can be a fundamental environmental feature
• Winning the lottery to enter one of NYC’s small high schools of choice (Untermann et al., 2014)
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Outcomes SSC Control group Effect
Graduation
Graduated from high school 71.6 62.2 9.4 **
Regents diploma granted 50.2 43.5 6.7 **
Advanced Regents diploma granted
8.2 7.3 0.9
College readiness
Passed English Regents Exam at 75+
42.1 35.8 6.3 **
Passed Math Regents Exam at 75+
25.1 24.5 0.5
Post-secondary enrollment
Enrolled in post-secondary education
49.0 40.7 8.4 **
Winning the lottery to enter a NYC Small High School of Choice (n=14,608)
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Is neighborhood quality a fundamental environmental feature?
• Moving to Opportunity suggests not for many outcomes in the US
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MTO: Huge Differences in Neighborhood Poverty (Duration-Weighted)
01
23
45
0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
Con Compliers (Exp) Exp Compliers
De
nsity
Neighborhood Poverty Rate
Experimental Compliers vs Control Compliers
38
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Outcome
Interventions
ImpactsBaseline Ages 0 to 5
Reading Assessment ns
Math Assessment ns
Baseline Ages 6 to 11
Reading Assessment ns
Math Assessment ns
Took SAT/ACT? ns
No Impacts on School Achievement
39
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What else can sustain impacts?
When interventions:
• (from before) boost the “right kinds” of skills or environment
• are supported by post-TX sustaining environment
• lead to foot-in-the-door access to sustaining environments
• are sufficiently intensive to change foundational skills for children with bad counterfactual conditions
• treat enough children to generate positive peer effects
![Page 41: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
What can sustain impacts?
When interventions:
• (from before) boost the “right kinds” of skills or environment
• are supported by post-TX sustaining environment
• lead to foot-in-the-door access to sustaining environments
• are sufficiently intensive to change foundational skills for children with bad counterfactual conditions
• treat enough children to generate positive peer effects
![Page 42: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Building Blocks and sustaining environments
K-1 TX follow-through
No K-1 TX follow-through
High math in K-1
Low math in K-1
End of pre-K TX
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
0.17
0.19
0.66
Impact on math in sd units
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Building Blocks and sustaining environments
K-1 TX follow-through
No K-1 TX follow-through
High math in K-1
Low math in K-1
End of pre-K TX
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
0.17
0.15
0.19
0.66
Impact on math in sd units
nsSimilar results for low vs. high math home environments
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Building Blocks and sustaining environments
K-1 TX follow-through
No K-1 TX follow-through
High math in K-1
Low math in K-1
End of pre-K TX
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
0.32
0.17
0.15
0.19
0.66
Impact on math in sd units
ns
p=.07
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Sustain environments
Building Blocks suggest that environmental supports must be tailored explicitly to the nature of the prior treatment
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What can sustain impacts?
When interventions:
• (from before) boost the “right kinds” of skills or environment
• are supported by post-TX sustaining environment
• lead to foot-in-the-door access to sustaining environments
• are sufficiently intensive to change foundational skills for children with bad counterfactual conditions
• treat enough children to generate positive peer effects
![Page 47: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Foot-in-the-door examples?
• SAT prep may affect college quality, which is known to have a positive impact on earnings
• Can FAFSA knowledge lead to college and later success?
• Was some of Abecedarian’s long-run success caused by lower rates of special ed and grade retention?
• Can pro-social behavioral interventions reduce or delay first arrests?
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Foot-in-the-door
Foot-in-the-door links to the emerging literature on developmental cascades (Dodge et al. 2008)
• Sequence of positive or negative conditions that cumulate to good or bad outcomes
• Since <100% probabilities multiply, relying on cascades seems like a risky intervention strategy
![Page 49: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
What can sustain impacts?
When interventions:
• (from before) boost the “right kinds” of skills or environment
• are supported by post-TX sustaining environment
• lead to foot-in-the-door access to sustaining environments
• are sufficiently intensive to change foundational skills for children with difficult counterfactual conditions
• treat enough children to generate positive peer effects
![Page 50: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
IQ impacts in Perry and Abecedarian
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
Age
Perry
Abecedarian
![Page 51: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Perry vs. Abecedarian
• 1 or 2 years• Part-day ECE +
weekly home visits• Urban setting
• 5 years• Year-round full-day
ECE• Cumulative
curriculum• Rural setting
Perry Abecedarian
• African American children with low tested IQs
• High risk/low SES families
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What can sustain impacts?
When interventions:
• (from before) boost the “right kinds” of skills or environment
• are supported by post-TX sustaining environment
• lead to foot-in-the-door access to sustaining environments
• are sufficiently intensive to change foundational skills for children with bad counterfactual conditions
• treat enough children to generate positive peer effects
![Page 53: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Generating peer effects
• Measles vaccination!• Deworming treatments in
Kenya generated large benefits for untreated children in treated schools (Miguel and Kremer, 2004)
• County spending on preschool?
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More county spending on ECE boosts grades 3-5 achievement
Ladd, Dodge, & Muschkin (2014, JPAM), Muschkin, Dodge, & Ladd (in press, EEPA), Dodge, Ladd, Muschkin, & Bai (under review)
Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 50
1
2
3
4
5
6More At Four Reading Scores
More At Four Math Scores
Month
s of
Learn
ing
Gain
ed
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Outline
I. OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE
II. OTHER AVENUES FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE
III. HOW TO RECONCILE ECE PROGRAM FADEOUT ON IQ WITH IMPACTS ON ADULT OUTCOMES?
![Page 56: Fadeout in human capital interventions: Death, miracles and resurrection.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070407/56649e3f5503460f94b30984/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Death
Resurrection
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4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
.44 sd
.87 sd
Age
IQ
Earnings
Perry’s IQ Swan Dive and Earnings Resurrection
A miracle
occurs…
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Perry and Abecedarian both affected adult earnings
Do they have common (statistical) mediators?
Are they “cognitive” or “non-cognitive”?
ECE treatment
MediatorsAdult
earnings
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Perry’s IQ Effects by Age
4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Age
Eff
ect
Siz
e in s
d
unit
s
IQ
Source: Schweinhart et al., 2005; Effect sizes >.30 are p<.05, one-tailed test
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Perry’s IQ and Achievement Effects by Age
4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Age
Eff
ect
Siz
e in s
d
unit
s
IQLan-
guage
Math
Reading Adult liter-acy
Source: Schweinhart et al., 2005; Effect sizes >.30 are p<.05, one-tailed test
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Perry’s Noncognitive Effects Ages 6-9
Source: Pinto, based on Heckman et al. (2014)
Index Sample item Impact
Academic potential
Creativity .31ns
Academic motivation
Alert and interested; motivated; persists
.37ns
Classroom conduct
Disobedient; impulsive; blames others
.40*
Personal behavior Absences; swears .36ns
Teacher dependence
Seeks constant reassurance .03ns
Emotional state Depressed; withdrawn .29ns
Emotional adjustment
Trust; level of emotional adjustment
.30ns
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Perry (statistical) mediators
• Perry generated a raft of potential mediational effects
– achievement, but not IQ
– a number of potentially important “noncognitive” domains
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Abecedarian’s IQ and Achievement Effects by Age
4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Age
Eff
ect
Siz
e i
n s
d
un
its
IQ
Source: Campbell et al., 2001; all effect sizes are p<.05.
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Abecedarian’s IQ and Achievement Effects by Age
4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Age
Eff
ect
Siz
e i
n s
d
un
its
IQMath
Reading
Source: Campbell et al., 2001; all effect sizes are p<.05.
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Abecedarian’s Cognitive and Noncognitive Effects by Age
4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Age
Eff
ect
Siz
e i
n s
d
un
its
IQMath
Reading
Cognitive compe-tence
Global self-worth
Social compe-tence
Source: Campbell et al. (2001) and Campbell et al. (2002)
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Abecedarian (statistical) mediators
• Abecedarian generated a number of potential mediational effects
– achievement and IQ
– but not a limited number of “noncognitive” measures
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Two other relevant studies
• Both the Chicago Parent-Child program (Reynolds et al.) and kindergarten class quality (Chetty) affected adult earnings
– CPC affected reading and math achievement more than its “noncognitive” measures
– Chetty et al. found more impact on a noncognitive index than on achievement
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Bottom lines on impact resurrection
An even bigger mess!
• Q: haven’t developmental psychologists invented a word for a big mess like this?• A: YES – “equifinality,” when many roads lead to the same outcomes
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Summary
• Impact persistence requires treating fundamental and malleable skills that would not develop eventually in counterfactual conditions
• Other avenues are possible– Foot-in-the-door cascades from
peripheral skills are possible but risky– Environmental or intensive individual
interventions may work but are expensive
– Targeting children in the worst counterfactual conditions may be the best strategy
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Bottom linesResearch priorities
• Long-run follow-ups, perhaps using administrative data
• Design better post-TX sustaining environment
• For interventions involving implicit theories, self-concept and motivation, we need more independent replications and longer-run follow-ups
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That’s it!
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Fundamental and malleable skills
Fundamental Peripheral
More mallea
ble
Lessmallea
ble
• Conscientiousness (grit)
• g (IQ)
Who cares?
• Teaching to the test SAT test prep Flash cards• FAFSA rule knowledge?...
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Pace of development in counterfactual conditionsNull/slow => no
fadeout?Eventually =>
fadeout?• Fractions, algebra• (much) Vocabulary
• Implicit theories (Dweck)
• Self-concept (Cohen) • Academic motivation
• EF working memory• Emotional self-reg for
some
• Background knowledge
• Counting• Alphabet knowledge
• Implicit theories (Dweck)
• Self-concept (Cohen) • Academic motivation
• EF impulse control• Emotional self-reg for
most• Background knowledge