Factors impeding global disaster resilience
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Transcript of Factors impeding global disaster resilience
LET’S WAKE UP THE SLEEPING GIANT
THAT IS IMPEDING GLOBAL
DISASTER RESILIENCE
RIP VAN WINKLE
RIP VAN WINKLE,
THE SLEEPING GIANT,
IS YOU
(AND ME), AND OUR COMMUNITY
ASLEEP--WE FAIL
AWAKE—WE CAN
CHANGE OUR PARADIGMS
IF WE CAN WAKE UP THE
SLEEPING GIANT
- - - WE WILL OVERCOME THE GLOBAL
RIP VAN WINKLE EFFECT
THAT WILL ALLOW
THE 21ST CENTURY
TO BECOME THE CENTURY OF NEAR
RECORD DISASTERS
IT IS PAST TIME FOR A
“GLOBAL WAKE UP CALL”
UNDER-
STAND
IDENT-
IFY
HEAR
PERSON-
ALIZEACT
1990-2014
PERIOD OF
INTEGRATION NOW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY
21ST
CENTURYPERIOD OF
IMPLEMEN-
TATION
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that occur when
three continuums: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs),
and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods,
earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in
space and time, when and where the
people and community are not ready.
WHEN AN INTERSECTION OCCURS, A
DISASTER OCCURS - - -
- - - IF THE PEOPLE AND THE COMMUNITY
ARE ASLEEP; NOT READY FOR WHAT HAPPENS
PEOPLE COMMUNITY
RECURRING
EVENTS
P
T
S
O
CP
A RIP VAN WINKLE IS NOT PREPARED TO
BE A CHAMPION OF DISASTER
RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY
--- He slept
through the most
important 20
years of his life --
- the IDNDR
(1990-1999) AND
ISDR (2000-2014)
HE IS UNPREPARED AFTER MISSING
20 YEARS OF INNOVATION
• --- VULNERABILITY REDUCTION
• --- RISK REDUCTION
• --- PREVENTION
• --- PROVENTION
• --- MITIGATION
• --- DISASTER REDUCTION
• --- DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
• --- DISASTER RESILIENCE
BY MISSING 10,000+
OPPORTUNITIES TO LEARN
FROM THE NOTABLE EVENTS
AND DISASTERS THAT
HAPPENED DURING THE PERIOD
1990—2014,
HE IS UNPREPARED.
ARIZONA: JUNE 8, 2011
VOLCANO PUYEHUE’S ASH
CLOUD: JUNE 4, 2011
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BARGE
TRAFFIC HALTED: MAY 6
WESTERN TANZANIA: INUNDATION;
MAY 6
NEW SOUTH WALES,
AUSTRALIA: JANUARY, 2011
NORTH DAKOTA LEVEE
BREACHED:JUNE 23, 2011
TUSCALOOSA, AL: APRIL 27, 2011
SENDAI, JAPAN”BEFORE
MARCH 12TH
AFTER MARCH 12th
NOTABLE EVENTS AND DISASTERS
OF 2014
ATLANTIC BASIN
TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES
HURRICANE ARTHUR
November 30th marked the official
end of a quiet 2014 Atlantic Basin
hurricane season. There were
eight named storms, six of which
were hurricanes, with only two
(Edouard and Gonzalo) becoming
major storms; NOT SO IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN
El Niño (cyclical surges of
warm water at the equator) • In general, meteorologists believe that
El Niño conditions suppress hurricane
activity in the Atlantic and increase it in
the Pacific.
• A new study suggests that there may
be a delayed reaction, with peak
hurricane activity in the northeastern
Pacific happening two or three years
after an El Niño peak.
PACIFIC BASIN TROPICAL
STORMS AND TYPHOONS
The 2014 season ran throughout the
entire year, although most storms
developed between May and October
2014’s STORM TRACKS
Total Storms: 22
Typhoons: 11
Super Typhoons: 8
Fatalities: 481
Damage: $8.29 billion
TYPHOON VONGFONG: 2014’S
6TH SUPER TYPHOON
CYCLONES
CYCLONE HUDHUD ARRIVED:
OCT. 12
2014: EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI
DISASTER OF THE YEAR
THE DISASTER OF THE YEAR
OCCURRED IN
IQUIQUE, CHILE
WHERE THE NAZCA PLATE IS
SUBDUCTING BENEATH CHILE-PERU
IQUIQUE, CHILE
EARTHQUAKE (April 1, 2014)
IQUIQUE, CHILE: FLOODING
FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP
MOUNT ONTAKE
ERUPTS AFTER 35 YEARS
OF DORMANCY
ONTAKE, ONE OF 100 ACTIVE
VOLCANOES IN JAPAN, ERUPTED A
LITTLE BEFORE NOON ON
SEPTEMBER 27, 2014
MOUNT ONTAKE: SATURDAY,
SEPTEMBER 27, 2014
LAVA FLOW—A SILENT
VOLCANIC HAZARD IN HAWAII
Thursday, October 30, 2014
Monday, November 10, 2014
LAVA FLOW MOVING AT 5 M PER
HOUR TOWARDS PAHOA
LAVA FLOW ARRIVES AND SETS FIRE
TO FIRST HOUSE
FLOOD-INDUCED
MUDSLIDE IN WASHINGTON
STATE, USA
SATURDAY, MARCH 22, 2014
LOCATION MAP
THE 2014 MUDSLIDE
• The slide, which occurred on
Saturday morning, was
triggered by heavy rainfall and
reported to be about 25 m (80
feet) deep in some parts.
THE MUDSLIDE
The 15 million cubic foot
mudslide destroyed about
50 homes
176 MISSING
14 DEAD
AS OF TUESDAY, MARCH
25
2015: IT IS PAST TIME FOR A
“GLOBAL WAKE UP CALL”
UNDER-
STAND
IDENT-
IFY
HEAR
PERSON-
ALIZEACT
1990-2014
PERIOD OF
INTEGRATION NOW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY
21ST
CENTURYPERIOD OF
IMPLEMEN-
TATION
EXAMPLE OF A 21ST CENTURY’S WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY
• WE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY AFTER EACH
RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD DISASTER OF
THE 21ST CENTURY TO ACCELERATE THE
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION
PROCESS, ONE OF THE FIVE PILLARS OF
GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGY: TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCTION
• THE POLITICAL AND MEDIA SPOTLIGHT
IS ON ALL DECISIONS AND ACTIVITIES
• POLITICAL PRIORITY: RESTORATION TO
NORMAL (OR BETTER) AS QUICKLY AS
POSSIBLE
• INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE,
INSURANCE PAYOUTS, AND DONORS:
ALWAYS AVAILABLE
TYPICAL TOP PRIORTIES
1) RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION
INFRASTRUCTURE
2) RESTORATION OF ESSENTIAL
FACILITIES-- SCHOOLS
“VAN WINKLE BARRIERS” TO ACHIEVING
GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
• MYTH– there is a “general
public,” so one glove fits all.
• REALITY--there are many
different sectors of the public
having different motivations and
needs that require sector-
specific knowledge.
“VAN WINKLE BARRIERS” TO ACHIEVING
GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
• MYTH– people will do what they
say they will do
• REALITY—the coefficient of
correlation between what people
say and what they actually do is
VERY LOW; only legal man-
dates ensure compliance.
“VAN WINKLE BARRIERS” TO ACHIEVING
GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
• MYTH– mailing OR e-mailing a report
is communication
• REALITY—communication is an
active 2-way process involving: A
SOURCE and A RECEIVER, A
MESSAGE, and A CHANNEL
(or multiple channels) to develop
programmes with a long time line.
RECOVERY/RECON-
STRUCTION AFTER
A DISASTER
“DISASTER
RESILIENCE”
ACADEMIA
FUNCTIONAL
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
INFORMATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
ORGANIZATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
COMMUNI-
CATION
COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDERS
Stratec Consulting
“VAN WINKLE BARRIERS” TO ACHIEVING
GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
• MYTH– mailing a report or sending
an e-mail will transfer ownership of
knowledge and trigger policy
adoption
• REALITY—transfer of ownership of
knowledge is a long process:
HEARING, UNDERSTANDING, and
PERSON-ALIZING FOR ACTION.
WHAT IS THE PAYOFF OF
GLOBAL DISASTER
RESILIENCE
FAILURE: WE WILL HAVE DISASTERS
DURING THE 21ST CENTURY THAT COULD
MAKE 1990—2014’S DISASTERS LOOK
LIKE “A WALK IN THE PARK.”
SUCCESS: EVERYONE WINS