FAA Aerospace Forecast - Federal Aviation Administration · PDF file1 . Forecast Highlights...

Table of Contents Forecast Highlights (2017–2037) ................................................................................................ 1

Review of 2016 ........................................................................................................................... 3

Glossary of Acronyms ................................................................................................................. 4

Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... 5

FAA Aerospace Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 6

Economic Environment ........................................................................................................... 7

U.S. Airlines............................................................................................................................ 9

Domestic Market ................................................................................................................. 9

International Market ...........................................................................................................15

Cargo .................................................................................................................................19

General Aviation ....................................................................................................................21

FAA Operations .....................................................................................................................26

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................28

Unmanned Aircraft Systems ..................................................................................................30

Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast ................................................................................30

Commercial Small UAS Forecast .......................................................................................31

Remote Pilot Forecast .......................................................................................................33

Forecast Uncertainties ...........................................................................................................35

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................ 39

Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................39

Alternative Forecasts .............................................................................................................43

Enplanements ....................................................................................................................43

Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................44

Available Seat Miles ...........................................................................................................44

Load Factor .......................................................................................................................45

Yield ..................................................................................................................................46

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy ....................................................................................... 51

Appendix C: Forecast Tables ................................................................................................... 53

1

Forecast Highlights (2017–2037)

Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. commercial air carrier industry has been characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility that was associated with these cy-cles was thought by many to be a structural feature of an industry that was capital inten-sive but cash poor. However the great re-cession of 2007-09 marked a fundamental change in the operations and finances of U.S Airlines. Since the recession, U.S. air-lines have fine-tuned their business models to minimize losses by lowering operating costs, eliminating unprofitable routes, and grounding older, less fuel efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated new services that customers were willing to purchase and started charging separately for services that were historically bundled in the price of a ticket. The industry experienced an unprecedented period of consolidation with three major mergers in five years. These changes along with ca-pacity discipline exhibited by carriers have resulted in a seventh consecutive year of profitability for the industry in 2016. Looking ahead there is confidence that the industry has been transformed from that of a boom-to-bust cycle to one of sustainable profits.

Fundamentally, over the medium and long term, demand for aviation is driven by eco-nomic activity, and a growing U.S. and world economy provides the basis for avia-tion to grow over the long run. The 2017 FAA forecast calls for U.S. carrier passen-ger growth over the next 20 years to aver-age 1.9 percent per year, slightly slower than last year’s forecast. The sharp decline in the price of oil in 2015-16 was a catalyst for an uptick in passenger growth in 2016 that will continue into 2017. The price of oil

is projected to rise from around $39 per bar-rel in 2016 to $47 in 2017, and our forecast assumes that it will rise thereafter to exceed $100 by 2026 and approach $132 by the end of the forecast period. There are a number of headwinds that are buffeting the global economy – uncertainty surrounding “Brexit”, recession in Russia and Brazil and inconsistent performance in other emerging economies, a “hard landing” in China, and lack of further stimulus in the advanced economies. Although the U.S. economy has managed to avoid a recession, there is uncertainty regarding the impact of the new U.S. administration’s policies on economic growth.

System traffic in revenue passenger miles (RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.4 per-cent a year between 2017 and 2037. Do-mestic RPMs are forecast to grow 2.0 per-cent a year while International RPMs are forecast to grow significantly faster at 3.4 percent a year. U.S. carrier system capaci-ty measure in available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to grow in line with the increases in demand. The number of seats per aircraft is getting bigger, especially in the regional jet market, where we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful by 2023, replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft.

Although the U.S. and global economy con-tinued post disappointing growth in 2016, a combination of robust demand and contin-ued low energy prices resulted in record profits for U.S. airlines. U.S. carrier profita-bility may fall in the near term as rising en-ergy prices and higher labor costs offset higher revenues fed by solid demand. Over the long term, we see a competitive and

2

profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing demand for air travel and airfares growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting over the long term a growing U.S. and glob-al economy.

The long term outlook for general aviation is stable to optimistic, as growth at the high end offsets continuing retirements at the traditional low end of the segment. The ac-tive general aviation fleet is forecast to in-crease 0.1 percent a year between 2016 and 2037, resulting in an increase in the fleet of about 3,400 units. While steady growth in both GDP and corporate profits results in continued growth of the turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the largest segment of the fleet – fixed wing piston aircraft contin-ues to shrink over the forecast. Although fleet growth is minimal, the number of gen-eral aviation hours flown is projected to in-crease an average of 0.9 percent per year

through 2037, as growth in turbine, ro-torcraft, and experimental hours more than offset a decline in fixed wing piston hours.

With increasing numbers of regional and business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix changes, and carriers consolidating opera-tions in their large hubs, we expect in-creased activity growth which has the po-tential to increase controller workload. Op-erations at FAA and contract towers are forecast to increase 0.8 percent a year over the forecast period with commercial activity growing at five times the rate of non-commercial activity. The growth in U.S. air-line and business aviation activity is the primary driver. Large and medium hubs will see much faster increases than small and non-hub airports, largely due to the com-mercial nature of their operations.

3

Review of 2016

Despite slow economic growth at home and abroad, 2016 was a pretty good year for U.S. aviation. A combination of robust do-mestic traffic and falling costs offset a de-cline in revenue caused by lower yields re-sulting in record profits for the U.S. airline industry. The shift in focus from market share to boosting returns on invested capital has resulted in something the industry has rarely seen – sustained profitability. The U.S. airline industry has become more nim-ble in adjusting capacity to seize opportuni-ties or minimize losses. U.S. airlines contin-ue to refine strategies for developing addi-tional revenue streams such as charging fees for services that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal service), as well as for charging for services that were not previ-ously available (e.g. premium boarding and fare lock fees). The impact from these initi-atives is evident as the industry (passenger and cargo carriers combined) posted profits for the seventh consecutive year in 2016, despite falling yields.

Demand for air travel in 2016 grew at the fastest pace since 2005 despite modest economic growth in the U.S. In 2016 sys-tem revenue passenger miles (RPMs) in-creased 4.3 percent while enplanements grew 4.2 percent. Domestic RPMs were up 5.5 percent while enplanements were up by 4.3 percent. International RPMs increased by just 1.5 percent despite enplanements growing by 3.6 percent. The system-wide load factor rose 0.2 points to 83.5 percent.

Yields fell for the second consecutive year. In domestic markets, falling oil prices and rapid expansion by ultra-low cost carriers such as Spirit and Allegiant led to a 4.7 per-

cent decline. International yield fell 9.0 per-cent, impacted by weak demand and cur-rency fluctuations. Despite falling yields U.S. airlines posted record profits in FY 2016 as energy prices continued to decline, allowing profits at lower prices. Data for FY 2016 show that the reporting passenger car-riers had a combined operating profit of $26.6 billion (compared to a $24.1 billion operating profit for FY 2015). The network carriers reported combined operating profits of $19.1 billion while the low cost carriers reported combined operating profits of $6.7 billion as all carriers posted profits.

The general aviation industry recorded a small decline in deliveries in 2016, with only the business jet segment seeing a year over year increase. Overall deliveries were down by 4.2 percent in calendar year (CY) 2016; and U.S. billings decreased 11.7 percent to $10.6 billion. General aviation activity at FAA and contract tower airports recorded a 0.2 percent decline in 2016 as local activity fell 0.5 percent, more than offsetting a 0.1 percent increase in itinerant operations.

In 2016 total operations at all 517 FAA and contract towers rose for the second consec-utive year, up 0.5 percent, compared to 2015. This marks the first time since FY 1999-2000 that operations at FAA and funded towers have increased for two con-secutive years. Air carrier activity increased by 4.8 percent, more than offsetting de-clines in the air taxi, general aviation, and military categories. Activity at large hubs rose by 1.6 percent, while medium hub ac-tivity increased by 2.8 percent. Small/non-hub airport activity was down 0.4 percent in 2016 compared to the prior year.

4

Glossary of Acronyms

Acronym Term ASMs Available Seat Miles ATP Air Transport Pilot AUVSI Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International BVLOS Beyond Visual Line of Sight CFR Code of Federal Regulations CY Calendar Year FAA Federal Aviation Administration FY Fiscal Year GA General Aviation GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association GDP Gross Domestic Product ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization IFR Instrument Flight Rules LSA Light Sport Aircraft NAS National Airspace System NPRM Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking PCE Personal Consumption Expenditure RAC Refiners’ Acquisition Cost RP Remote Pilot RPA Remote Pilot Authorization RPMs Revenue Passenger Miles RTMs Revenue Ton Miles sUAS Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s) TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control TRB Transportation Research Board UAS Unmanned Aircraft System(s) USD United States Dollar VFR Visual Flight Rules

5

Acknowledgements

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr.

The following people may be contacted for further information:

Section Contact Name Phone Number Economic Environment Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306 Commercial Air Carriers

• Passenger Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306 Li Ding (202) 267-1846

• Cargo Nick Miller (202) 267-3309 General Aviation

• Forecasts H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070 • Survey data H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures

• Forecasts Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306 • Data Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Dipasis Bhadra (202) 267-9027 APO Websites

• Forecasts and statistical publications

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/

• APO databases http://aspm.faa.gov

Email for APO staff First name.last [email protected]

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/

http://aspm.faa.gov/

6

FAA Aerospace Forecasts Fiscal Years 2017-2037

7

Economic Environment

In the near term, IHS Global Insight projects that world economic growth will pick up from its 2016 low of 2.4 percent to 2.8 percent in 2017 and 3.1 percent in 2018. Growth is forecast to accelerate in the United States as the new U.S. administration puts a stimu-lus package in place while Europe remains sluggish as the impact from Brexit and polit-ical uncertainty hamper growth. Japan’s economic growth is projected to be slow

and steady, helped by a weaker yen. In emerging markets, China’s growth contin-ues to slow while others such as Brazil and Russia return to positive growth and see an acceleration helped by rising commodity prices and increased demand for exports. In 2016 real GDP in India grew 6.9%, down from 7.5% in 2015, but is projected in 2017-18 to return to levels close to the 2015 rate.

IHS Global Insight forecasts world real GDP to grow at 2.9 percent a year between 2017 and 2037. Emerging markets are forecast to grow above the global average but at lower rates than in the early 2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by India and China, is projected to have the fastest growth fol-lowed by Middle East and Africa, Latin

America, and Eastern Europe. Growth in the more mature economies will be lower than the global trend with the fastest rates in the U.S. followed by Europe. Growth in Ja-pan is projected to be very slow with rates below 1% a year reflecting deep structural issues associated with a shrinking and ag-ing population.

6.9 6.7

1.7 1.6 1.0

-0.6

-3.6

2.4

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

India and China led World Economic Growth in 2016

India China Eurozone U.S. Japan Russia Brazil World

Source: IHS Global Insight

8

Oil prices fell by 31% in 2016 to around $39 per barrel bringing the cumulative decline between 2013 and 2016 to 61%. However 2016 marks the bottom of the latest cycle and IHS Global Insight is projecting oil pric-es in 2017 to increase by about 20% to $47

per barrel. Over the long run, oil prices are projected to increase due to growing de-mand and higher costs of extraction. IHS Global Insight forecasts the price of oil to reach $101 per barrel by 2026 and continue to rise modestly thereafter to $131 by 2037.

0.8

1.4

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.6

4.9

Japan

Eurozone

U.S.

Emerging Europe

World

Latin America

Asia ex China

M.E. & Africa

China

Asia and Africa/Middle East lead global economic growth

Source: IHS Global Insight, Dec 2016 World Forecast

Annual GDP % growth 2017-2037

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

$ Pe

r Bar

rel o

f Oil

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost


9

U.S. Airlines

Domestic Market

Mainline and regional carriers1 offer domes-tic and international passenger service be-tween the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international ser-vice is confined to the border markets in Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean.

Shaping today’s commercial air carrier in-dustry are three distinct trends: (1) industry consolidation and restructuring; (2) contin-ued capacity discipline in response to exter-nal shocks, and (3) the proliferation of ancil-lary revenues.

The restructuring and consolidation of the U.S. airline industry that began in the after-math of the 2007-09 recession continued in 2016. In October 2015, the last U.S. Air-ways flight occurred marking the finalization of the American/US Airways merger and in April 2016, Alaska Airlines announced its intention to merge with Virgin America to create the nation’s 5th largest airline. As a result, there are now six airlines in the U.S. – American, Delta, Southwest, United, Alas-ka/Virgin, and Jet Blue – controlling approx-imately 85% of the domestic market as measured by revenue passenger miles.

1 Mainline carriers are defined as those provid-ing service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more seats. Regionals are defined as those providing service primarily via aircraft with 89 or less seats and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the mainline carriers.

Further consolidation is unlikely. In 2005 there were twelve major mainline airlines.2

The mergers and increasing market pres-ence of low cost carriers like Frontier, Jet-Blue and Southwest have had clear implica-tions on the fares, size of the aircraft being used and the load factors, topics that will be discussed later in this document.

One of the most striking outcomes of indus-try restructuring has been the unprecedent-ed period of capacity discipline, especially in domestic markets. Between 1978 and 2000, ASMs in domestic markets increased at an average annual rate of 4 percent a year, recording only two years of decline. Even though domestic ASMs shrank by 6.9 percent in FY 2002, following the events of September 11, 2001, growth resumed and by 2007, domestic ASMs were 3.6 percent above the FY 2000 level. Since 2009, U.S. domestic ASMs have increased at an aver-age rate of 2.0% per year. U.S. domestic ASMs are up just 4.1 percent when com-pared to 2007 as the industry responded first to the sharp rise in oil prices (up 155% between 2004 and 2008) and then the glob-al recession that followed (2009 to the pre-sent).

The period of domestic capacity restraint since 2007 has not been shared equally be-

2 A major carrier is defined as an air carrier with annual operating revenues exceeding $1 billion

10

tween the mainline carriers and their re-gional counterparts. In 2016, the mainline carrier group provided 5 percent more ca-pacity than it did in 2007 while carrying 8 percent more passengers. Capacity flown by the regional group has shrunk by 2.6 percent over the same period (with passen-gers carried down 3 percent).

The regional market has continued to shrink as the regionals compete for even fewer contracts with the remaining dominant carri-ers; this has meant slow growth in en-planements and yields.

575 589 639 676 721 770 825

152 152 165 175

186 198

212

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2016E 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Enpl

anem

ents

(mill

ions

)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regional

11

The regionals have less leverage with the mainline carriers than they have had in the past as the mainline carriers have negotiat-ed contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. Furthermore, the regional airlines are facing pilot shortages and tighter regulations re-garding pilot training. Their labor costs are increasing as they raise wages to combat the pilot shortage while their capital costs have increased in the short-term as they continue to replace their 50 seat regional jets with more fuel efficient 70 seat jets. The move to the larger aircraft will prove beneficial in the future, however, since their unit costs are lower.

Another continuing trend is that of ancillary revenues. Carriers generate ancillary reve-

nues by selling products and services be-yond that of an airplane ticket to customers. This includes the un-bundling of services previously included in the ticket price such as checked bags and on-board meals, and by adding new services such as boarding priority and internet access. As noted earli-er, U.S. passenger carriers posted record net profits for the seventh consecutive year in 2016 with ancillary revenues a contrib-uting factor to the favorable outcome as well as very low oil prices. Airlines are also moving ahead with plans to further segment their passengers into more discreet cost categories based on comfort amenities like seat pitch, leg room, and access to social media and outlets. Delta introduced “Basic Economy” fares in 2015 and expanded the number of markets throughout 2016. United

14.0 14.0 15.6

17.3 18.7

20.1 21.6

11.4 11.5 12.8

14.2 15.4

16.5 17.7

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2016E 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Rev

enue

Per

Mile

(¢)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield

Mainline Regionals

12

introduced its version of Basic Economy fares in November 2016 and American is planning to introduce its version in the first quarter of calendar year 2017.

U.S. commercial air carriers’ total number of domestic departures rose in 2016 for the first time since 2007, but still remain 17.3 percent below the 2007 level. ASMs, RPMs and enplanements all showed a rebound; these trends underlie the expanding size of aircraft and higher load factors.3 In 2016, the domestic load factor reached a historic high of 84.7 percent for commercial air car-riers. It is presently assumed that the load factor will not exceed 86.5 percent in the future due to the logistical difficulties inher-ent in matching supply perfectly with de-mand.

3 Commercial air carriers encompass both main-line and regional carriers.

13

System, that is, the sum of domestic plus international capacity, increased 4.2 percent to 1.112 trillion ASMs in 2016 while RPMs increased 4.3 percent to 928 billion. During the same period system-wide enplanements increased 4.2 percent to 819.6 million. In 2016, U.S. carriers continued to prioritize the domestic over the international market in terms of allocating capacity as domestic capacity increased 5.3 percent while inter-national capacity was up just 1.6 percent. U.S. carriers domestic capacity growth will exceed their international capacity growth in 2017 but carriers will start expanding capac-ity in international markets faster than do-mestic markets beginning in 2018 and this trend is projected to continue through 2037 as the domestic market continues to ma-ture.

U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in the combined domestic and international market was 5.4 percent in 2016 while re-gional carriers carried 0.6 percent fewer passengers.

In the domestic market, mainline enplane-ments increased for the sixth consecutive year, up 5.8 percent, marking the first time since 2000 that the industry recorded six consecutive years of passenger growth in the domestic market. Mainline passengers in international markets posted a seventh year of growth, up 3.1 percent.

With relatively robust demand, industry ca-pacity growth was up 4.2 percent after a 3.9 percent increase in 2015. Solid increases in passenger volume and traffic offset lower yields and along with higher ancillary reve-

84.0

84.5

85.0

85.5

86.0

86.5

87.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2016E 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Load

Fac

tor

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements Load Factor

14

nues and falling fuel prices resulted in U.S. carriers finishing up 2016 with record profits.

System load factor increased 0.1 points while trip length increased 1.2 miles (0.1 percent) in 2016, even as seats per aircraft mile increased by 1.6 percent; again reflect-

ing the trend towards using larger aircraft. Seats per aircraft mile system wide in-creased to 151.3 seats (up 2.3 seats per aircraft mile), the highest level since 1992.

15

International Market

Over the past decade, the international market has been the growth segment for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature U.S. domestic market. Since 2015 growth in the domestic market has outpaced inter-national markets and 2017 is expected to follow suit as airlines continue to focus on the domestic market. Starting in 2018 the international market (comprised of mainline and regional carriers) should again start outpacing the domestic market in terms of enplanements, RPMs and ASMs at average

annual rates (FY 2018-2037) of 3.4, 3.3, and 3.3 percent, respectively.

The weakness in international demand over the past few years is mainly due to weak worldwide economic growth. The near term outlook remains uncertain as oil prices are moving up, the impact of Brexit is unclear, growth in world trade is still weaker than before the Global Financial Crisis, and se-curity concerns continue to loom over the world as a threat to international tourism.

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - Enplanements

Domestic Market International Market

16

The next five years will feature a rebuilding of international demand by the U.S. carriers with moderate growth averaging around 3.5, 3.5, and 3.4 percent a year for enplane-ments, RPMs, and ASMs respectively. Air-

lines will exercise capacity restraint and the load factor is expected to stabilize around 81.3%. Load factors this high were last seen in 2014.

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - RPMs

Domestic Market International Market

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - ASMs

Domestic International

17

For U.S. carriers, Latin America is still the largest international destination despite the recent economic and political crises of Bra-zil. Enplanements in 2016 grew an estimat-ed 5.9% while RPMs increased 4.7%. Growth is projected to slow in 2017 as U.S. carriers trim capacity growth to help stabi-lize yields. Enplanements and RPMs are forecast to increase 1.6 and 1.2 percent, respectively, in 2017. Over the twenty year period 2017-2037, Latin America enplane-ments are forecast to increase at an aver-age rate of 4.1% a year while RPMs grow 4.4% a year.

Despite the economic growth and potential of air travel to China and India, the Pacific region remains a relatively small market for the U.S. and will remain so for the next twenty years. In 2016, U.S. carriers saw en-planements increase 0.6% over their 2015 levels while traffic (RPMs) increased by 2.5

percent. Between 2017 and 2037, U.S. car-rier enplanements and RPMs are forecast to grow 2.5 and 2.6 percent a year, respective-ly.

In 2016, the Atlantic region saw a drop in enplanements of 1.0% while RPMs fell 2.1% as concerns about Brexit and a weak Euro-pean economy kept demand in check. U.S. carriers have dialed back on capacity growth in 2017 as demand continues to be weak amid uncertainty associated with Brexit and European elections. As a result, enplanement and RPM growth will hover around 0% (-0.3% and 0.1%, respectively). The Atlantic is a mature region and over the twenty year period 2017-2037, enplane-ments in the Atlantic region (including the Middle East and Africa) are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.7% a year while RPMs grow 3% a year.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2016E 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers International Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements

18

Total passengers (including Foreign Flag carriers) between the United States and the rest of the world increased an estimated 5.3% in 2016 (218.5 million) as all regions posted gains led by an 8.4% increase in the Pacific region.

FAA projects total passenger growth of 4.7% in 2017 as global economic growth accelerates with the highest growth ex-pected in the Latin region. Stable global economic growth (2.8% a year) over the next 20 years (2017-2037) is the foundation for the forecast growth of international pas-sengers of 3.6% a year, as levels more than double from 229 million to 467 million.

The Latin American region is the largest in-ternational market and is projected to grow

at the fastest rate (3.9% a year) of any re-gion over the next 20 years. Within the re-gion, Mexico and Brazil are the two largest markets and are expected to remain so over the forecast period.

Powered by the economic growth and po-tential of air travel to China and India, total passengers in the Pacific region are fore-cast to double to 85 million by 2037. From 2017 to 2037, passengers between the United States and the Pacific region are forecast to grow 3.8 percent a year.

Both the Atlantic and Canada regions are more mature markets and are projected to have somewhat slower growth than the Lat-in or Pacific regions. The Atlantic region is forecast to grow at an average rate of 3.4%

73 77 89 103 117 132 149 79 83

92 108

127 149

177

39 41 48

57 66

76

85

27 28 33

38

43

49

56

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2016 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Mill

ions

of P

asse

nger

s

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S. American and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic* L. America Pacific Canada TransborderSource: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also received from Transport Canada * Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.

19

a year as an increasing share of the pas-sengers in this region come from the Middle East and Africa markets. The Canadian transborder market is the smallest market in

terms of passenger volumes and is forecast to grow 3.5% a year.

Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and international freight/express and mail. The demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Car-go carriers face price competition from al-ternative shipping modes such as trucks, container ships, and rail cars.

U.S. air carriers flew 35.5 billion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2016, down 0.9 percent from 2015 with domestic cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs) increasing 1.8 percent to 13.3 billion while international RTMs fell 2.4 per-cent to 22.2 billion. Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers comprised 77.6 percent of total RTMs in 2016, with passenger carri-ers flying the remainder. Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers decreased 0.4 per-cent in 2016 while total RTMs flown by pas-senger carriers declined by 2.6 percent.

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic can be divided into four regions consisting of Atlantic, Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other Interna-tional.’ In 2016 total international RTMs de-creased 2.4 percent to 22.2, with all regions posting declines.

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. Additional factors that affect air cargo growth are fuel price volatility, movement of real yields, and globalization. Significant structural changes have occurred in the air cargo industry; among these are air cargo

security regulations by the FAA and TSA, maturation of the domestic express market, a shift from air to other modes (especially truck), use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail, and the increased use of mail substitutes (e.g. e-mail, cloud-based services).

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the cargo industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second, most of the shift from air to ground transportation has oc-curred. Finally, long-term cargo activity will be tied to economic growth.

The forecasts of RTMs were based on models that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of domestic cargo RTMs were developed with real U.S. GDP as the prima-ry driver. Projections of international cargo RTMs were based on growth in world and regional GDP, adjusted for inflation. The distribution of RTMs between passenger and all-cargo carriers was forecast based on an analysis of historic trends in shares, changes in industry structure, and market assumptions.

After decreasing by 0.9 percent in 2016, total RTMs are forecast to grow 1.4 percent in 2017. Driven by steady U.S. and world economic growth, total RTMs are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent for the balance of the forecast peri-od.

20

Following a 1.8 percent increase in 2016, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to grow 1.7 percent in 2017 as the U.S. economic recovery continues. Between 2016 and 2037, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent. In 2016, all-cargo carriers carried 89.0 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The all-cargo share is forecast to grow to 90.5 percent by 2037 based on increases in ca-pacity for all-cargo carriers and ongoing se-curity considerations.

International cargo RTMs fell 2.4 percent in 2016 after posting a 0.9 percent increase in 2015 as slow growth in the U.S. and Europe along with the slowdown in China’s eco-nomic growth slowed worldwide trade. Growth is expected to turn positive in 2017

to 1.3 percent as global trade growth re-sumes. For the forecast period (2016-37) international cargo RTMs are forecast to increase an average of 3.8 percent a year based on projected growth in world GDP with the Pacific region having the fastest growth, followed by the Other International, Atlantic, and Latin regions, respectively.

The share of international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 49.3 percent in 2000 to 70.8 percent in 2016. Continuing the trend experienced over the past decade, the all-cargo share of international RTMs flown is forecast to in-crease modestly to 77.1 percent by 2037.

21

General Aviation

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization rates from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the GA fleet and activity. Forecasts of new air-craft deliveries, which use the data from General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), together with assumptions of re-tirement rates, produce growth rates of the fleet by aircraft categories, which are ap-plied to the GA Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts are carried out for “active air-craft,”4 not total aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts also rely on discussions with the industry experts conducted at indus-try meetings, including four Transportation Research Board (TRB) meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees conducted annually in May and January.

The results of the 2015 GA Survey, the lat-est available, were consistent with the re-sults of surveys conducted since 2004 im-provements to the survey methodology. The GA fleet was in decline between 2007 and 2013, especially between 2011 and 2013, primarily due to the impact of the 2010 Rule for Re-Registration and Renewal of Aircraft Registration, which removed can-celled, expired or revoked records from the Registry. In 2014, the GA fleet recorded its first increase since 2008, and the 2015 Sur-vey results showed an increase for the sec-ond consecutive year. The active GA fleet was estimated as 210,031 aircraft in 2015

4 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year.

(up 2.8 percent from 2014), with 24.1 million hours flown (up 3.7 percent from 2014).

In 2016, gradual decline in deliveries of the general aviation industry continued from the previous year. While the business jet deliv-eries by U.S. manufacturers continued their modest increase by 1.8 percent compared to the previous year, turboprop deliveries were down by 2.1 percent, single engine piston deliveries declined by 7.4 percent, and much smaller category of multi-engine piston deliveries declined 23.3 percent. Based on figures released by GAMA, U.S. manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered 1,525 aircraft in CY 2016, 4.2 per-cent fewer than CY 2015. This was the second year of declines since 2011. Overall piston deliveries were down 8.3 percent in 2016. In the turbine categories, total ship-ments went down by 0.2 percent.

22

GAMA and industry experts also reported continuing decreases in rotorcraft deliveries in 2016, particularly resulting from direct and indirect effects of oil price declines.

Against these current conditions, the long term outlook for general aviation, driven by turbine aircraft activity, remains stable to favorable. The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average an-nual rate of 0.1 percent over the 21-year forecast period, as increases in the turbine, experimental, and light sport fleets offset declines in the fixed wing piston fleet. The total active general aviation fleet increases from an estimated 209,905 in 2016 to 213,420 aircraft by 2037.

The more expensive and sophisticated tur-bine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is projected to grow by 14,700 aircraft -- an average rate of 1.9 percent a year over the forecast period, with the turbojet fleet in-creasing 2.3 percent a year. The growth in U.S. GDP and corporate profits are cata-lysts for the growth in the turbine fleet.

The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing piston aircraft is predicted to shrink over the forecast period by 22,500 aircraft (at an av-erage annual rate of -0.8 percent). Unfa-vorable pilot demographics, overall increas-ing cost of aircraft ownership, coupled with new aircraft deliveries not keeping pace with retirements of the aging fleet are the drivers of the decline.

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Billings ($B) Shipments

Calendar Year

General Aviation U.S. Manufacturers Shipments and Billings

Shipments Billings ($ Billion)Source: GAMA

23

On the other hand, the smallest category, light-sport-aircraft, (created in 2005), is forecast to grow by 4.1 percent annually,

adding about 3,355 new aircraft by 2037, more than doubling its 2015 fleet size.

Although the total active general aviation fleet is projected to increase minimally, the number of general aviation hours flown is forecast to increase an average of 0.9 per-cent per year through 2037, as the newer aircraft fly more hours each year. Fixed wing piston hours are forecast to decrease by 0.8 percent, the same rate as the fleet declines. Countering this trend, hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are

forecast to increase 2.4 percent yearly over the forecast period. Jet aircraft are ex-pected to account for most of the increase, with hours flown increasing at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent over the forecast period. The large increases in jet hours re-sult mainly from the increasing size of the business jet fleet, along with estimated in-creases in utilization rates.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2007 2017 2027 2037Calendar Year

Active General Aviation Aircraft

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing TurbineRotorcraft LSAExperimental and Other

24

Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily impacted by the previous economic down-turn as other aircraft and rebounded earlier, faces the challenges brought by lower oil prices. They impact utilization rates and new aircraft orders both directly through de-creasing activity in oil exploration, and also through associated slowdown in related economic activity. Rotorcraft hours are pro-jected to grow by 2.0 percent annually over the forecast period.

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is forecasted to see an increase of 4.6 percent a year in hours flown, primarily driven by growth in the fleet.

The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Mon-roney Aeronautical Center. There were 584,362 active pilots certificated by FAA at

the end of 2016. While private and com-mercial pilot categories kept their declining trends, ATP and student pilot certificates continued to increase. One regulatory change that affected the number of student pilot certificates was the 2010 rule that in-creased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 months to 60 months. Since 2011, the student pilot numbers have been rising and reached 128,501 in 2016.

Another change in the legislation impacted commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled airline) flight crew members would hold an ATP certificate by August 2013. The airline pilots holding a commercial pilot certificate and mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2007 2017 2027 2037Calendar Year

General Aviation Hours Flown (in thousands)

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing TurbineRotorcraft LSAExperimental and Other

25

longer operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data showed a faster decline in commercial pilot numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of increase in ATP certificates.

The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding ATPs) is projected to decrease about 7,500 (down 0.1 percent yearly) over the forecast period, while the ATP category

is forecast to increase by 15,500 (up 0.5 percent annually). The student pilots are forecast to increase by 0.4 percent and much smaller category of sport pilots are predicted to increase by 4.1 percent annual-ly over the forecast period. On the other hand, both private and commercial pilot cer-tificates are projected to decrease at an av-erage annual rate of 0.7 and 0.6 percent, respectively until 2037.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2006 2016 2026 2037

Calendar Year

Active Pilots by Type of Certificate

Students Sport PilotPrivate Pilot Commercial PilotAir Transport Pilots Rotorcraft only

26

FAA Operations

The growth in air travel demand and the business aviation fleet will drive growth in operations at FAA facilities over the forecast period. Activity at FAA and Contract towers is forecast to increase at an average rate of 0.8 percent a year between 2017 and 2037. Commercial operations5 at these facilities are forecast to increase 1.5 percent a year, 5 times faster than non-commercial opera-tions. The growth in commercial operations is less than the growth in U.S. airline pas-senger traffic (1.5 percent vs. 1.9 percent) over the forecast period due primarily to larger aircraft (seats per aircraft mile) and higher load factors. Both of these trends allow U.S. airlines to accommodate more passengers without increasing the number of flights. General aviation operations (which accounted for 51% of operations in 2016) are forecast to increase an average of 0.3 percent a year as increases in turbine powered activity more than offset declines in piston activity.

5 Sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi cate-gories.

FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Operations6 are forecast to grow slightly faster than at towered facilities. This is in part a reflection of the different mix of activity at Tracons. Total operations are forecast to increase an average of 1.0 per-cent a year between 2017 and 2037. Commercial operations accounted for ap-proximately 59 percent of Tracon operations in 2016 and are projected to grow 1.3 per-cent a year over the forecast period. Gen-eral aviation activity at these facilities is pro-jected to grow only 0.4 percent a year over the forecast.

Activity at FAA En-Route Centers is meas-ured by the number of IFR aircraft handled.

6 Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instru-ment Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules (VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and VFR overflights.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2007 2017 2027 2037

Ope

ratio

ns (0

00)

Fiscal Year

FAA & Contract Tower Operations

Commercial Non Commercial

27

In 2016, aircraft handled at FAA En-Route Centers increased 3.1 percent, led by in-creases in the Air Carrier and General Avia-tion categories. Growth in airline traffic and business aviation is expected to lead to in-creases in activity at En-Route centers. Over the forecast period, aircraft handled at En-Route centers are forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.3 percent a year as increases in Air Carrier and General Avia-tion activity offset declines in Air Taxi activi-ty. Activity at En-Route centers is forecast to grow faster than activity at towered air-ports because more of the activity at En-Route centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end (mainly turbine) general aviation flying. Much of the general aviation activity at towered airports, which is growing more slowly, is local in na-ture, and does not impact the centers.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2007 2017 2027 2037

AC H

andl

ed (0

00)

Fiscal Year

En-Route Center Aircraft Handled

Commercial Non Commercial

28

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet

The number of aircraft in the U.S. commer-cial fleet is forecast to increase from 7,039 in 2016 to 8,270 in 2037, an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent a year. Increased demand for air travel and growth in air cargo is expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets.

Between 2016 and 2037 the number of jets in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to grow from 4,073 to 5,199, an average of 54 aircraft a year as carriers continue to re-move older, less fuel efficient narrow body aircraft. The narrow body fleet (including E-series aircraft at American and JetBlue) is projected to grow 37 aircraft a year as carri-ers replace the 757 fleet and current tech-nology 737 and A320 family aircraft with the next generation MAX and Neo families. The wide-body fleet grows by an average of 17 aircraft a year as carriers add 777-8/9, 787’s, A350’s to the fleet while retiring 767-300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S. passenger carrier wide-body fleet increases by 67 percent over the forecast period.

The regional carrier fleet is forecast to de-cline from 2,156 aircraft in 2016 to 2,027 in

2037 as the fleet shrinks by 14 percent (309 aircraft) between 2016 and 2025. Carriers remove 50 seat regional jets and retire older small turboprop and piston aircraft, while adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the E-2 family after 2020. By 2025 only a handful of 50 seat regional jets remain in the fleet. By 2037, the number of jets in the regional car-rier fleet totals 1,828, up from 1,637 in 2016. The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to shrink by 62% from 519 in 2016 to 199 by 2037. These aircraft account for just 9.8 percent of the fleet in 2037, down from 24.1 percent in 2016.

The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is forecast to increase from 810 aircraft in 2016 to 1,044 aircraft in 2037 driven by the growth in freight RTMs. The narrow-body cargo jet fleet is projected to increase by less than 1 aircraft a year as 757’s and 737’s are converted from passenger use to cargo service. The wide body cargo fleet is forecast to increase 11 aircraft a year as new 747-800, 777-200, and new and con-verted 767-300 aircraft are added to the fleet, replacing older MD-11, A300/310, and 767-200 freighters.

29

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2006 2016 2026 2037Calendar Year

U.S. Carrier Fleet

Mainline NB Mainline WB

Cargo Jet Regionals

30

Unmanned Aircraft Systems

An unmanned aircraft system is defined by statute as an aircraft that is operated with-out the possibility of direct human interven-tion from within or on the aircraft. A UAS is the unmanned aircraft (UA) and its associ-ated elements (including communication links and the components that control the unmanned aircraft) that are required for the safe and efficient operation of the un-manned aircraft in the National Airspace System (NAS). This forecast is primarily driven by the ongoing evolution of the UAS regulatory environment, the ingenuity of manufacturers and operators, and underly-ing demand. While continuing to enable the thriving UAS industry, these efforts will fa-cilitate the safe integration of UAS into the NAS.

Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast

On December 14, 2015, the FAA issued a rule requiring all UAS weighing more than 0.55 pounds (250 grams) and less than 55 pounds to be registered using a new on-line system (UAS weighing more than 55 pounds must be registered using the exist-ing Aircraft Registration Process). FAA’s online registration system went into effect on Dec. 21st, 2015. By December 31, 2016, 626,245 owner-hobbyists had registered. The rule allows hobbyists to register once and apply their unique registration number to multiple aircraft, unlike non-hobbyists who must obtain a unique registration num-ber for each non-hobby aircraft. As a result, for each registration, one or more aircraft is likely to be owned (with a few exceptions of no aircraft being owned as well). For the entire online registration period up to the first week of February 2017, the cumulative registration trend has been one of growth,

with the trend slowing over time. Weekly registration currently averages between 5,000 and 7,000, with anticipated hikes dur-ing the holiday seasons.

A geographic distribution shows hobbyist UAS ownership are distributed across the country with denser ownership correlated with population centers.

In addition to information from the registra-tion database, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Science held a UAS forecast workshop on October 25-26, 2016 involving industry, ac-ademia, and numerous modeler (hobbyist) and industry groups. The primary focus of this workshop was to understand the per-sonalized nature and numerous applications of UAS, maturity trends and their drivers, and safety implications of the UAS fleet from gradual integration into NAS. Further-

31

more, the Agency engaged outside consult-ing firms to aid forecasting efforts for both the model and non-model UAS fleets.

The FAA recognizes that uncertainty is abundant in projecting both the model and the non-model UAS fleet. Hence, we pro-vide a base forecast (i.e., likely) with high and low ranges in the following table for the model UAS fleet.

With over 626,000 hobbyists registered as of December 31, 2016, FAA estimates that there are around 1.1 million units that can be identified as distinctly hobbyist or model aircraft. By an examination of last year’s data, from February 2016 to February 2017, we calculate the compound annual growth rate to be around 68%. This is a substantial growth rate as anticipated from the introduc-tion of drones as a hobby sport facilitated by falling prices, improved technology such as built-in camera and ease of use. The regis-tration database allowed early adopters to enroll easily. However, the trend is likely to slow as prices settle and early adopters

learn to make use of their aircraft. Given the registration trends observed, expert opin-ions collected during the TRB-workshop, a review of available industry forecasts, and market/industry research, FAA forecasts that the hobbyist fleet will likely (base sce-nario) more than triple in size over the next 5 years, from 1.1 million units in 2016 to over 3.5 million units by 2021. The high scenario may reach as high as 4.5 million units while the low scenario could be as low as 2.75 million units over the next 5 years. Growth rates underlying these numbers are fairly steady at the initial years but slowing in the last 2 years.

Total Hobbyist FleetMillion sUAS Units

Year Low Base High2016 1.10 1.10 1.102017 1.94 2.15 2.312018 2.37 2.80 3.182019 2.60 3.20 3.792020 2.69 3.40 4.152021 2.75 3.55 4.47

Commercial Small UAS Forecast

Prior to on-line registration, commercial UAS operators were required to register us-ing the legacy paper-based process. Since the on-line system went live on April 1, 2016, more than 44,000 commercial UAS have been registered.

For each week on-line registration has been available, around 1,000 non-hobby units have been registered.

32

Similar to hobbyists, a geospatial distribu-tion of commercial small UAS ownership shows denser areas correlated with eco-nomic or commercial activities across the country.

In June 2016 the FAA issued the Small UAS Rule (14 CFR part 107), which regulates the operation of small unmanned aircraft sys-tem in the National Airspace System. This rule, which took effect on August 29, 2016, provided a regulatory structure for the rou-tine operation of small UAS for commercial purposes.

The commercial drone sector is very dy-namic and appears to be at an early stage of growth. Unlike the hobbyist sector, FAA anticipates that growth in this sector will continue to accelerate over the next few years. Given the clarity that part 107 has provided to the industry, increasing com-mercial applications will become likely, which will facilitate additional growth.

Based on the registration trends observed, expert opinions collected during the TRB-workshop, review of available industry fore-casts, and market/industry research, FAA forecasts that the non-hobbyist fleet by 2021 will likely (base scenario) be ten times larger than the size of the fleet in 2016. FAA projects the number of units in the commercial small UAS fleet will exceed

420,000 by 2021, compared to 42,000 in 2016.

The forecast commercial small UAS fleet is primarily (over 95%) consumer grade off-the-shelf aircraft due to lower prices, ease of use, and availability. However, the high-er-end, bigger, professional grade fleet stands to expand rapidly over time, espe-cially as newer and more sophisticated uses are devised. Thus, while most (over 90%) of the growth in the commercial small UAS fleet will come from the consumer grade UAS, we anticipate a significant portion of commercial growth will come from profes-sional grade UAS as well.

Total Non-Hobbyist (Commercial) FleetMillion sUAS Units

Year Low Base High2016 0.042 0.042 0.0422017 0.095 0.108 0.2352018 0.133 0.167 0.4452019 0.173 0.242 0.7422020 0.207 0.327 1.1332021 0.238 0.422 1.616

Commercial small UAS are presently used for numerous applications. A review of available industry/market research (e.g., AUVSI (2015), Bard Primary Use in 2015, Bard Likely Use in 2016, Fredonia (2015), and other reports (2016)) reveals their over-all present (2015-2016) uses in the following chart:

33

Major applications of commercial small UAS are aerial photography (34%), construction, industrial and utility inspection (26%), real estate (26%) and agriculture (21%). Many of these UAS have multiple uses, and hence, the sum of the percentages in the above chart exceeds 100%.

One way to understand trends in commer-cial small UAS is to analyze the waiver ap-plications that are filed by commercial UAS operators. Both the magnitude and relative composition of the types of waiver requests may indicate the direction of the commercial UAS sector as a whole. A breakdown of the top 5 waiver requests is given in the chart below:

Beyond what is presently allowed under part 107, expanding commercial applications further would require waivers for night oper-ations (65%), operations over people (35%), and beyond visual line of sight or BVLOS (19%). Many of these waiver applications request relief for multiple types of opera-tions, and hence, the above total exceeds

100%. The Agency issues waivers to facili-tate case-by-case commercial activities be-yond the scope of what is allowed under part 107. Future regulatory development will allow these types of operations on a more routine basis. Meanwhile, analysis of these waiver applications allows us to un-derstand industry trends, one of many met-rics that is essential for projecting both the trajectory and growth trends of the sector.

Finally, more than 6,800 airspace waiver requests were submitted for operations in controlled airspace by the end of December, 2016. While almost half of them were for operations in class D airspace (i.e., smaller airports with control towers), other classes were also requested and regularly flown.

Remote Pilot Forecast

The other important metric to understand trends in the commercial small UAS industry is remote pilot certifications. The FAA is-sues Remote Pilots Certificates to individu-als who have passed an aeronautical knowledge test or completed online training (current part 61 airmen) under part 107. At present (December, 2016), the FAA has issued more than 29,000 Remote Pilot Cer-tificates. Over 90% of individuals who took the part 107 aeronautical knowledge exam passed, as of February, 2017.

34

26

26

21

8

5

0 10 20 30 40

Aerial Photography

Real Estate

Construction, Industrial…

Agriculture

Emergency Management

Insurance

Percent

Present uses of Commercial sUAS

34

The forecast for remote pilots (RPs) is thus based on two data sources: (a) trends in Remote Pilot certificates issued; and (b) trends in commercial small UAS registration and forecasts. For projecting Remote Pilot growth rates, we assume a ratio of the number of remote pilots to the number of aircraft in the non-hobbyist fleet.

Using these assumptions and the base sce-nario of commercial small UAS forecast, we

project the number of Remote Pilots will grow significantly following the growth trends of commercial small UAS sector.

Estimated Number of RPs2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1 UAS per RPA 20,362 107,800 166,800 241,800 327,000 422,0001.5 UAS per RPA 20,362 71,867 111,200 161,200 218,000 281,3332 UAS per RPA 20,362 53,900 83,400 120,900 163,500 211,000

35

Forecast Uncertainties

The forecasts in this document are fore-casts of aviation demand, driven by models built on forecasts of economic activity. There are many assumptions in both the economic forecasts and in the FAA models that could impact the degree to which these forecasts are realized. This year’s forecast is driven, at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including the strength of the U.S. and global economies. Shifting in-ternational dynamics and any impacts re-sulting from the new U.S. administration’s economic policies could drive further changes. Also, as numerous incidents in the past few years (like the downing of a Russian A321 in the Sinai in October 2015) remind us, terrorism remains among the greatest risks to aviation growth. Any terror-ist incident aimed at aviation could have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation services that could be greater than its impact on overall economic activity.

Although oil prices remained below $45 per barrel for most of 2016, the recent volatility reminds us there is still considerable uncer-tainty as to the future direction of oil prices. The FAA’s baseline forecast (derived from economic assumptions in IHS Global In-sight’s January 2017 U.S. macro forecast and 30-Year Focus released during the fourth quarter of 2016) calls for an increase in oil prices in 2017 to $47 per barrel and rise steadily thereafter, exceeding $70 by 2021, $100 by 2026, reaching $131 per bar-rel by the end of the forecast period in 2037. Some forecasters are calling for a more gradual rebound in the price of oil. In Janu-ary 2017, the World Bank released its latest commodity price forecast. The forecast calls for oil prices to rise to $55 per barrel in

2016, remaining below $65 until 2022, and reaching $80 per barrel by 2030. The Inter-national Monetary Fund (IMF) also sees oil price increasing at a more moderate rate than the FAA’s base forecast, as its October 2016 forecast called for oil prices increasing from $43 per barrel in 2016 to only $57.65 per barrel by 2021. Over the long run, lower oil prices give consumers an impetus for additional spending, including air travel, and should enhance industry profitability.

The baseline forecast assumes some level of tax cuts and additional infrastructure spending to the U.S. economy with the new administration. However there is consider-able uncertainty as to the magnitude, timing, and nature of these programs which ulti-mately determines the impact on the future growth of the U.S. economy. In addition there is still much to be worked out on how the U.S. will engage with the rest of the global economy over the next several years. Under the right conditions, a period of sus-tained high and more inclusive growth along with increased financial stability could occur but there is also the possibility of an out-come that leads to greater global economic fragmentation, slower growth, and in-creased financial instability.

The baseline forecast assumes that global economic growth will accelerate after 2016, but weakness in certain areas may threaten the strength and sustainability of the expan-sion. The baseline forecast assumes that China and India will be growth engines for emerging economies as China successfully transitions the economy from reliance on heavy manufacturing and resource indus-tries to one more oriented towards the ser-vices and technology sectors and India con-

36

tinues to implement reforms to make its economy more competitive. While economic growth appears to be accelerating in the U.S., there are concerns about the strength of demand in Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue to be con-strained by structural economic problems (high debt, slow population growth, weak public finances for example) and in the case of Europe, political elections in 2017. Fur-thermore, the steps that were taken to stabi-lize the global economy during the Great Recession have resulted in additional distor-tions and imbalances. There are concerns that central banks may not raise interest rates in time to contain asset bubbles and inflationary expectations. In advanced economies, governments need to shore up their finances but it is unclear if policy mak-ers will take the steps needed. Given the discomfort many policy makers feel about the measures adopted to combat the Great Recession and uncertainty about the ad-vanced economies’ prospects, the possibil-ity that authorities will either act prematurely or be excessively timid and late in taking necessary steps is not insignificant. The current forecasts assume strong passenger growth for travel between the United States and other world regions. Any slowing of worldwide economic activity could seriously inhibit the growth in global passenger de-mand.

With the merger of American Airlines and US Airways completed and the approval of the Alaska Airlines/Virgin America merger, the outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisitions (M&A) appears to be rather limited. Based on FY 2016 data, the top 6 (American, Delta, United, South-west) plus Alaska/Virgin and JetBlue ac-counted for more than 85% of the U.S. air-line industry capacity and traffic. Of the

network carriers, only Alaska remains inde-pendent, although it does have code share agreements with both American and Delta. For many low cost carriers, the sheer size of merger transactions or the amount of risk associated with a merger makes further merger activity unlikely. For the network carriers, it is unclear how regulatory authori-ties will respond to any future proposed mergers.

The forecast assumes the addition of siza-ble numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 seats) into the fleet of regional carriers. However, network carrier consolidation and new rules on pilot training have left regional carriers saddled with either excess capacity or a lack of pilots. Although air travel de-mand continues to recover, the bankruptcy filing of Republic Airlines in February 2016 is a reminder that financial pressures on regional operators have not abated. Net-work carriers continue to make adjustments to the size and breadth of their networks, without providing opportunities for regional carriers to backfill the loss of the mainline service. Delta is well along in its plans to reduce its small (read 50 seat) regional jet fleet and plans to retire another 50 to bring its total to just 125 by 2018, down from al-most 500 at the end of 2009. United has reduced the number of small regional jets flown by its partners from an estimated 380 in 2012 to 242 by the end of 2015 with a target of 100 by 2019. It is adding 85 Em-braer 175’s to its partners’ regional fleet to partially replace the reduction in small jet flying. Meanwhile American has trimmed its small regional jet fleet by 60 aircraft since the beginning of 2015 and is planning to remove another 55 from service in 2017. At the same time the carrier plans to add 31 larger regional jets to its fleet in 2017, on top of the 83 that have been added in the

37

past two years. While these actions may provide some opportunities for well posi-tioned regional carriers, the overall impact of consolidation so far has been to reduce opportunities for regional flying substantial-ly.

After suffering through a significant down-turn in 2009, business and corporate avia-tion have seen a partial recovery during the past six years. The pace of the recovery in business and corporate aviation is largely based upon the future prospects of econom-ic growth and corporate profits. Future un-certainty in these leading indicators could pose a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not limited to these factors. Other influences, such as potential environmental regulations and taxes do not seem to be as much of a concern in the short term, but over the long term, uncertainties about the direction of these influences may place downward pres-sure on the forecast. On the other hand, there could be a pent-up demand for busi-ness jets in the near term that could push the forecast higher. While corporate profits have been high for several years, perceived economic and political uncertainties have caused companies to postpone their pur-chase of new business aircraft. With the new administration’s emphasis on policies designed to stimulate economic growth and limit regulation, companies are feeling more optimistic about their future prospects that can translate into additional business jet sales. The impact of fuel price movements on business aircraft demand is also uncer-tain. Demand is increased due to the posi-tive effect of declining fuel prices on corpo-rate profits. However, business aircraft de-mand from energy related industries will be negatively impacted by low fuel prices.

Other factors, such as new and more effi-cient product offerings and increased com-

petition from new entrant manufacturers, serve to broaden the potential of the indus-try. Raising the level of security restrictions, and the subsequent travel hassles placed on airline passengers, could make corpo-rate jet travel look increasingly appealing.

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at most large hubs expected to increase over the next 20 years, but the mix of air-craft is changing for this same period. The expected increases in the numbers of re-gional jets and business jets as well as the anticipated widespread deployment of UAS into the national airspace system will make the FAA’s job more challenging. This change in the mix of aircraft will impact workload strictly due to the increasing de-mand for aviation services projected over the forecast period.

While overall activity at FAA and contract towers increased 0.5 percent in 2016, activi-ty at large and medium hub airports (61 in total) increased 1.9 percent in 2016 and de-lays remained at historically high levels at many U.S. airports. FAA forecasts opera-tions at these airports to grow substantially faster than the overall national trend. As demand continues to grow and workload increases, congestion and delays could be-come a critical limit to growth over the fore-cast period. FAA’s forecasts of both de-mand and operations are unconstrained in that they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be in-adequate and result in even more conges-tion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of both demand and operations would not be achieved.

Community concerns about aviation related impacts could potentially limit or delay the ability of the aviation sector to grow to meet

38

national economic and mobility needs. Air-port expansion or new construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and water quality concerns. Con-cerns about aviation noise have led to in-creasing levels of public debate, political interest, and even litigation. Without effec-tive measures to mitigate and abate aviation noise, the infrastructure projects that are needed to achieve aviation growth may be constrained. In addition to local community concerns outlined previously, the climate impacts of aviation also present global chal-lenges. Aviation currently accounts for two to three percent of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and without action this percentage is expected to increase with the growth in operations. The international avia-tion community is focused on implementing ICAO’s comprehensive approach achieving carbon neutral growth through a ‘basket of measures’ comprising of technical, opera-tional, and infrastructure enhancements, sustainable alternative fuels, and the im-

plementation of a global market-based measure as a gap-filler. In addition to providing economic benefits, technologies to improve aircraft fuel efficiency also pro-vide benefits in terms of reduced CO2 emis-sions. The use of alternative fuels can also mitigate CO2 emissions while also providing economic benefits in areas where the fuel is being produced while also mitigating jet fuel price volatility. A global market-based measured for international CO2 emissions will impose an additional cost to internation-al airlines; however this is economically preferable to a patchwork of State or Re-gional-level regulations around the world. Continued improvements in fuel efficiency, noise reduction and alternative fuels are required to ensure that access restrictions or operating limitations are not imposed on the fleet in service which in turn may de-press growth.

39

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but es-pecially in the commercial air travel industry. As volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for planning purposes has increased. In order to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA has provides alternative scenarios to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and capacity. To create the baseline domestic forecast, economic assumptions from IHS Global In-sight’s 10-year and 30-year U.S. Macro Baselines were used. To develop the alter-native scenarios, assumptions from IHS Global Insight’s 10-year optimistic and pes-simistic forecasts from their January 2017 Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook were com-bined with the optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their Fall 2016 30-year U.S. Macro forecast. Inputs from these alterna-tive scenarios were used to create a “high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield fore-cast. International passengers and traffic are pri-marily driven by country specific Gross Do-mestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by IHS Global Insight. Thus, the alternative scenarios use inputs based on ratios de-rived from IHS Global Insight’s Major Trad-ing Partner and Minor Trading Partners op-timistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to create a high and low case.

Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast as-sumes that the economy experiences a pickup in growth over the next few years as a result of tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Oil prices remain low by historic

standards and there are no financial sector collapses.

The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The op-timistic forecast sees a rollback in regula-tions and lower corporate taxes resulting in higher capital spending. Stronger growth in investment spending leads to a boost in productivity and raises economic growth above the baseline case. Given the strengthening outlook, both business and consumer confidence improve leading to robust consumer spending with the housing sector remaining an engine of growth. Con-tinuing oversupply in oil markets keep oil prices low. Inflation remains in check with higher productivity, lower oil prices, and higher interest rates than in the baseline case. In this scenario real personal con-sumption expenditure (PCE) per capita growth averages 0.4 percentage points faster per year than the baseline forecast and unemployment averages 0.3 points lower on a fiscal year basis than the base-line.7

Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s pessimistic scenario. In this forecast, strained relations with major trading partners fuels uncertainty that caus-es business to cut back on investment and slows productivity growth leading to a

7 Real personal consumption expenditure per capita and unemployment are used as an input variables to the FAA’s base, high and low fore-casts of enplanements.

40

pickup in both wage and price inflation. In addition, the Eurozone’s recovery will stall and growth in emerging markets will be less robust. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to keep inflation in check but business and consumer confidence deteriorate. The combination of higher inflation, higher inter-est rates, and uncertainty negatively impact consumer spending, the housing market, and business investment, and the U.S. economy suffers a shallow recession in 2018 and the unemployment rate peaks at

6.6%. The Federal Reserve responds by slashing interest rates which spurs a recov-ery in 2019. In the long run, compared to the baseline forecast, productivity growth remains subdued, oil prices are higher, and economic growth is slower. Real PCE per capita in this scenario grows 0.4 percentage points slower per year than in the baseline; and unemployment, on average, is 0.9 points higher on an annual basis than in the baseline.

(0.5)

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

Pessimistic Baseline OptimisticSource: IHS Global Insight

41

324 326

337

347 357

366 374

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

2016 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Anun

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Popu

latio

n ( m

illio

ns)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Population

All scenarios Annual Percent Change


3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

% U

nem

ploy

ed

Fiscal Year

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Pessimistic Baseline OptimisticSource: IHS Global Insight

42

The price of energy is one of the drivers in the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case, en-ergy prices and import prices grow more

slowly than in the baseline. In the pessimis-tic case the opposite occurs with energy prices, wages and import prices rising more rapidly compared to the baseline.

- 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Pric

e pe

r Bar

rel (

$)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic


2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

BLS

Inde

x U

nits

*

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers


* BLS Units: 1982-84 = 1.00 Source: IHS Global Insight

43

Alternative Forecasts

Enplanements

In the baseline forecast, system enplane-ments are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2017-2037 (with domes-tic and international passengers up 1.7 and 3.5 percent, respectively).

In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at a quicker pace, averaging 2.6 percent per year (up 2.3 percent domestically and 4.7 percent internationally). This scenario is marked by a more favorable business envi-ronment, and lower fuel prices which make the price of flying more affordable to busi-ness and leisure travelers. By the end of the forecast period in 2037, system passen-

gers in the optimistic case are 14.6 percent above the baseline, totaling 1.4 billion, 179 million greater than in the baseline.

The pessimistic case is characterized by a period of weakened consumer confidence brought on by persistent unemployment, low consumer demand, and higher inflation. In this scenario enplanements grow an aver-age of 1.5 percent per year (domestic up 1.3 percent and international up 3.0 per-cent). In the pessimistic case, system pas-sengers in 2037 are 8.3 percent below the baseline case, totaling 1.125 billion, 101 million fewer than in the baseline.

(1.0)

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements


44

Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent a year over the forecast horizon (2017-2037), with domestic RPMs increasing 2.0 percent annually and international RPMs growing 3.4 percent annually.

In the optimistic case, the faster growing economy coupled with lower energy prices drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with growth averaging 3.2 percent per year (do-

mestic and international RPMs up 2.6 and 4.5 percent, respectively).

In the pessimistic case, the combination of a slower growing economy and higher energy prices result in RPM growth averaging 2.0 percent annually with domestic markets growing 1.5 percent a year while interna-tional traffic grows 3.0 percent annually.

Available Seat Miles

In the base case, system capacity is fore-cast to increase an average of 2.3 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 1.8 percent annually in domestic markets and 3.4 percent a year in international markets.

In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a faster clip than in the baseline forecast, av-eraging 3.1 percent annually system-wide (2.4 and 4.5 percent for domestic and inter-national markets, respectively). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline forecast to accommodate increased travel

- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles


45

demand brought about by a more favorable economic environment.

In the pessimistic case, demand for air trav-el is lower than in the baseline, thus system

capacity grows at a slower pace of 1.9 per-cent annually (domestic growth of 1.4 per-cent annually and international up 2.9 per-cent annually).

Load Factor

System load factors over the 20-year fore-cast period are relatively similar for all three forecast scenarios. System load factor rises from 83.2 percent in 2017 to 84.4 (optimis-tic), 84.5 (pessimistic), and 84.6 (baseline) percent in 2037, respectively.

In all three scenarios it is assumed that car-riers will keep load factors on the high side by actively managing capacity (seats) to more precisely meet demand (passengers).

The domestic load factor increases over the forecast horizon from 84.1 percent to 86.3

percent in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively, while rising to 86.4 percent in the baseline.

The international load factor is forecast to rise gradually from 80.9 in 2016 to 81.2 per-cent in 2037 in the optimistic scenario and 81.3 percent in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. This reflects in part the relative growth in demand and capacity in the three (Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions under each scenario.

- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles


46

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system yield increases 2.1 percent annually, going from 13.56 cents in 2017 to 20.38 cents in 2037. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 13.76 cents in 2017 to 21.16 cents in 2037. International yield rises from 13.04 cents in 2017 to 18.89 cents in 2037.

System yield rises in the optimistic case at the same rate as in the baseline, up 2.1 percent annually to 20.46 cents by 2037. Domestic yield increases to 21.33 cents while international yield increases to 18.95 cents. The modest growth in yield in both cases is due to advancements in technolo-

gy, gains in productivity, and relatively fa-vorable fuel prices.

In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an average of 2.6 percent annually, reach-ing 22.62 cents by 2037 (24.55 cents do-mestically and 18.90 cents internationally). This scenario reflects higher general do-mestic inflation and higher energy prices than in the baseline, forcing carriers to in-crease fares in order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, and capital.

47

TABL

E A-

1

FAA

FORE

CAST

ECO

NOM

IC A

SSUM

PTIO

NS

FISC

AL Y

EARS

201

6-20

37

Hist

oric

alFO

RECA

STPE

RCEN

T AV

ERAG

E AN

NUAL

GRO

WTH

Varia

ble

Scen

ario

2016

E20

1720

2220

2720

3220

3720

16-1

720

17-2

220

17-2

720

17-3

220

17-3

7Ec

onom

icAs

sum

ptio

nsRe

al Pe

rson

al Co

nsum

ption

Pess

imist

ic35

,306

35,9

2038

,095

40,6

6843

,201

45,7

081.

7%1.

2%1.

2%1.

2%1.

2%Ex

pend

iture

per

Cap

itaBa

selin

e35

,306

36,0

2239

,406

42,3

3945

,575

49,1

022.

0%1.

8%1.

6%1.

6%1.

6%(2

009

$)O

ptim

istic

35,3

0636

,111

41,3

5944

,874

48,9

4653

,798

2.3%

2.8%

2.2%

2.0%

2.0%

Re

finer

s Ac

quisi

tion

Cost

-Pe

ssim

istic

39.1

59.5

81.9

112.

313

6.9

168.

352

.2%

6.6%

6.6%

5.7%

5.3%

Aver

age

- $ P

er B

arre

lBa

selin

e39

.146

.977

.410

4.8

117.

413

1.4

19.8

%10

.6%

8.4%

6.3%

5.3%

O

ptim

istic

39.1

44.0

67.0

92.6

97.3

104.

212

.6%

8.7%

7.7%

5.4%

4.4%

Co

nsum

er P

rice

Index

Pess

imist

ic2.

392.

462.

843.

323.

954.

723.

0%2.

9%3.

0%3.

2%3.

3%Al

l Urb

an, 1

982-

84 =

1.0

Base

line

2.39

2.45

2.77

3.16

3.56

4.01

2.4%

2.5%

2.6%

2.5%

2.5%

Opt

imist

ic2.

392.

452.

843.

253.

654.

122.

7%3.

0%2.

8%2.

7%2.

6%

Civil

ian U

nem

ploym

ent R

ate

Pess

imist

ic4.

94.

85.

35.

65.

55.

3-2

.6%

2.1%

1.6%

0.9%

0.5%

(%)

Base

line

4.9

4.7

4.4

4.7

4.7

4.7

-5.6

%-1

.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

Opt

imist

ic4.

94.

73.

64.

54.

54.

4-5

.4%

-4.9

%-0

.3%

-0.3

%-0

.3%

Sour

ce: I

HS G

lobal

Insig

ht

48

TABL

E A-

2

FAA

FORE

CAST

OF

AVIA

TIO

N AC

TIVI

TY*

FISC

AL Y

EARS

201

6-20

37

Hist

oric

alFO

RECA

STPE

RCEN

T AV

ERAG

E AN

NUAL

GRO

WTH

Varia

ble

Scen

ario

2016

E20

1720

2220

2720

3220

3720

16-1

720

17-2

220

17-2

720

17-3

220

17-3

7Sy

stem

Av

iatio

n Ac

tivity

Av

aila

ble

Seat

Mile

sPe

ssim

istic

1,11

1.6

1,14

7.0

1,25

3.7

1,37

7.0

1,51

6.5

1,67

1.5

3.2%

1.8%

1.8%

1.9%

1.9%

(BIL

)Ba

selin

e1,

111.

61,

147.

01,

297.

41,

444.

21,

618.

41,

814.

23.

2%2.

5%2.

3%2.

3%2.

3%O

ptim

istic

1,11

1.6

1,14

7.0

1,38

6.2

1,57

5.9

1,82

1.1

2,11

5.0

3.2%

3.9%

3.2%

3.1%

3.1%

R

even

ue P

asse

nger

Mile

sPe

ssim

istic

928.

095

4.1

1,05

2.5

1,16

1.0

1,28

1.1

1,41

3.0

2.8%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

(BIL

)Ba

selin

e92

8.0

954.

11,

089.

61,

217.

91,

367.

41,

534.

32.

8%2.

7%2.

5%2.

4%2.

4%O

ptim

istic

928.

095

4.1

1,16

3.8

1,32

7.6

1,53

6.1

1,78

4.8

2.8%

4.1%

3.4%

3.2%

3.2%

Enpl

anem

ents

Pess

imis

tic81

9.6

836.

089

4.2

964.

41,

042.

41,

125.

32.

0%1.

4%1.

4%1.

5%1.

5%(M

IL)

Base

line

819.

683

7.5

930.

61,

013.

81,

114.

01,

226.

62.

2%2.

1%1.

9%1.

9%1.

9%O

ptim

istic

819.

683

6.8

995.

71,

098.

01,

236.

91,

405.

52.

1%3.

5%2.

8%2.

6%2.

6%

Psgr

Car

rier M

iles

Flow

nPe

ssim

istic

7,34

6.0

7,51

8.2

7,95

0.6

8,53

4.8

9,21

0.2

9,94

8.0

2.3%

1.1%

1.3%

1.4%

1.4%

(MIL

)Ba

selin

e7,

346.

07,

518.

28,

243.

38,

953.

69,

827.

010

,808

.42.

3%1.

9%1.

8%1.

8%1.

8%

Opt

imis

tic7,

346.

07,

518.

28,

824.

19,

753.

811

,017

.212

,539

.22.

3%3.

3%2.

6%2.

6%2.

6%

Ps

gr C

arrie

r Dep

artu

res

Pess

imis

tic9,

058.

29,

280.

09,

506.

19,

946.

010

,359

.410

,816

.92.

4%0.

5%0.

7%0.

7%0.

8%(0

00s)

Base

line

9,05

8.2

9,28

9.8

9,89

3.8

10,4

43.6

11,0

53.0

11,7

78.2

2.6%

1.3%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

Opt

imis

tic9,

058.

29,

284.

710

,597

.911

,297

.612

,239

.213

,445

.52.

5%2.

7%2.

0%1.

9%1.

9%

Nom

inal

Pas

seng

er Y

ield

Pess

imis

tic13

.44

13.6

115

.35

17.4

619

.85

22.6

21.

3%2.

4%2.

5%2.

5%2.

6%(c

ents

)Ba

selin

e13

.44

13.5

515

.29

17.1

418

.69

20.3

80.

9%2.

4%2.

4%2.

2%2.

1%O

ptim

istic

13.4

413

.59

15.4

717

.35

18.8

220

.46

1.1%

2.6%

2.5%

2.2%

2.1%

* Inc

ludes

dom

estic

and

inte

rnat

iona

l act

ivity

.

49

TABL

E A-

3

FAA

FORE

CAST

OF

DOM

ESTI

C AV

IATI

ON

ACTI

VITY

FISC

AL Y

EARS

201

6-20

37

Hist

oric

alFO

RECA

STPE

RCEN

T AV

ERAG

E AN

NUAL

GRO

WTH

Varia

ble

Scen

ario

2016

E20

1720

2220

2720

3220

3720

16-1

720

17-2

220

17-2

720

17-3

220

17-3

7Do

mes

ticAv

iatio

n Ac

tivity

Av

aila

ble

Seat

Mile

sPe

ssim

istic

783.

081

3.3

859.

892

4.4

999.

11,

076.

93.

9%1.

1%1.

3%1.

4%1.

4%(B

IL)

Base

line

783.

081

3.3

894.

396

8.0

1,06

1.7

1,16

8.5

3.9%

1.9%

1.8%

1.8%

1.8%

Opt

imis

tic78

3.0

813.

395

7.3

1,04

1.0

1,16

3.4

1,31

4.5

3.9%

3.3%

2.5%

2.4%

2.4%

R

even

ue P

asse

nger

Mile

sPe

ssim

istic

663.

268

4.2

732.

579

2.9

860.

292

9.4

3.2%

1.4%

1.5%

1.5%

1.5%

(BIL

)Ba

selin

e66

3.2

684.

276

2.2

830.

791

4.7

1,00

9.2

3.2%

2.2%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

Opt

imis

tic66

3.2

684.

281

5.6

892.

91,

001.

71,

134.

43.

2%3.

6%2.

7%2.

6%2.

6%

Enpl

anem

ents

Pess

imis

tic72

6.2

741.

978

3.6

836.

889

5.8

955.

02.

2%1.

1%1.

2%1.

3%1.

3%(M

IL)

Base

line

726.

274

1.9

815.

387

6.7

952.

61,

037.

02.

2%1.

9%1.

7%1.

7%1.

7%O

ptim

istic

726.

274

1.9

872.

594

2.4

1043

.11,

165.

72.

2%3.

3%2.

4%2.

3%2.

3%

Psgr

Car

rier M

iles

Flow

nPe

ssim

istic

5,81

5.9

5,97

1.2

6,14

0.9

6,47

1.5

6,86

9.1

7,27

7.4

2.7%

0.6%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

(MIL

)Ba

selin

e5,

815.

95,

971.

26,

389.

66,

779.

07,

302.

77,

900.

62.

7%1.

4%1.

3%1.

4%1.

4%

Opt

imis

tic5,

815.

95,

971.

26,

842.

57,

293.

08,

005.

78,

892.

12.

7%2.

8%2.

0%2.

0%2.

0%

Ps

gr C

arrie

r Dep

artu

res

Pess

imis

tic8,

391.

58,

613.

78,

740.

49,

080.

19,

379.

99,

692.

42.

6%0.

3%0.

5%0.

6%0.

6%(0

00s)

Base

line

8,39

1.5

8,61

3.7

9,09

5.4

9,51

2.8

9,97

3.5

10,5

24.3

2.6%

1.1%

1.0%

1.0%

1.0%

Opt

imis

tic8,

391.

58,

613.

79,

740.

910

,234

.810

,934

.511

,846

.12.

6%2.

5%1.

7%1.

6%1.

6%

Nom

inal

Pas

seng

er Y

ield

Pess

imis

tic13

.68

13.8

415

.81

18.2

021

.09

24.5

51.

2%2.

7%2.

8%2.

8%2.

9%(c

ents

)Ba

selin

e13

.68

13.7

615

.71

17.7

419

.37

21.1

60.

6%2.

7%2.

6%2.

3%2.

2%O

ptim

istic

13.6

813

.81

15.9

618

.06

19.6

021

.33

0.9%

2.9%

2.7%

2.4%

2.2%

50

TABL

E A-

4

FAA

FO

REC

AST

OF

INTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

AVI

ATI

ON

AC

TIVI

TY*

FISC

AL

YEA

RS

2016

-203

7

His

toric

alFO

REC

AST

PER

CEN

T AV

ERAG

E AN

NU

AL G

RO

WTH

Varia

ble

Scen

ario

2016

E20

1720

2220

2720

3220

3720

16-1

720

17-2

220

17-2

720

17-3

220

17-3

7In

tern

atio

nal

Avia

tion

Activ

ity

Avai

labl

e Se

at M

iles

Pess

imis

tic32

8.6

333.

7

39

4.0

452.

6

51

7.4

594.

6

1.

5%3.

4%3.

1%3.

0%2.

9%(B

IL)

Base

line

328.

6

33

3.7

403.

1

47

6.3

556.

6

64

5.6

1.5%

3.9%

3.6%

3.5%

3.4%

Opt

imis

tic32

8.6

333.

7

42

8.8

534.

9

65

7.7

800.

5

1.

5%5.

1%4.

8%4.

6%4.

5%

Rev

enue

Pas

seng

er M

iles

Pess

imis

tic26

4.8

269.

8

32

0.0

368.

1

42

0.8

483.

7

1.

9%3.

5%3.

2%3.

0%3.

0%(B

IL)

Base

line

264.

8

26

9.8

327.

4

38

7.3

452.

7

52

5.1

1.9%

3.9%

3.7%

3.5%

3.4%

Opt

imis

tic26

4.8

269.

8

34

8.2

434.

7

53

4.4

650.

4

1.

9%5.

2%4.

9%4.

7%4.

5%

Enpl

anem

ents

Pess

imis

tic93

.4

94.1

11

0.7

127.

5

14

6.6

170.

3

0.

7%3.

3%3.

1%3.

0%3.

0%(M

IL)

Base

line

93.4

95

.6

115.

3

13

7.1

161.

4

18

9.6

2.3%

3.8%

3.7%

3.6%

3.5%

Opt

imis

tic93

.4

94.9

12

3.2

155.

6

19

3.8

239.

8

1.

5%5.

4%5.

1%4.

9%4.

7%

Psgr

Car

rier M

iles

Flow

nPe

ssim

istic

1,53

0.1

1,

546.

9

1,80

9.7

2,

063.

3

2,34

1.1

2,

670.

6

1.1%

3.2%

2.9%

2.8%

2.8%

(MIL

)Ba

selin

e1,

530.

1

1,54

6.9

1,

853.

7

2,17

4.6

2,

524.

3

2,90

7.8

1.

1%3.

7%3.

5%3.

3%3.

2%

Opt

imis

tic1,

530.

1

1,54

6.9

1,

981.

6

2,46

0.7

3,

011.

5

3,64

7.1

1.

1%5.

1%4.

8%4.

5%4.

4%

Ps

gr C

arrie

r Dep

artu

res

Pess

imis

tic66

6.8

666.

4

76

5.7

865.

8

97

9.5

1,12

4.5

-0

.1%

2.8%

2.7%

2.6%

2.7%

(000

s)Ba

selin

e66

6.8

676.

1

79

8.4

930.

8

1,

079.

4

1,25

4.0

1.

4%3.

4%3.

2%3.

2%3.

1%O

ptim

istic

666.

8

67

1.1

857.

0

1,

062.

8

1,30

4.7

1,

599.

4

0.6%

5.0%

4.7%

4.5%

4.4%

Nom

inal

Pas

seng

er Y

ield

Pess

imis

tic12

.83

13.0

3

14

.31

15.8

5

17

.31

18.9

0

1.

6%1.

9%2.

0%1.

9%1.

9%(c

ents

)Ba

selin

e12

.83

13.0

3

14

.31

15.8

5

17

.31

18.8

9

1.

6%1.

9%2.

0%1.

9%1.

9%O

ptim

istic

12.8

3

13

.03

14.3

3

15

.89

17.3

7

18

.95

1.6%

1.9%

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%

*Inc

lude

s m

ainl

ine

and

regi

onal

car

riers

.

51

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncertainty incorporated in them. They in-volve not only statistical analyses and vari-ous scientific methods, but also judgment and reliance on industry knowledge and the forecaster’s experience to incorporate in-dustry trends not yet reflected in recent re-sults. The FAA’s annual Aerospace Fore-cast is no exception. Given the volatile na-ture of the U.S. airline industry, it is not sur-prising that each year’s forecast would con-tain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be able to adjust for the predictable variance from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for a primary forecast assumption along with five key forecast metrics during the FY 2010-2016 forecast period. Although many of the fore-casts prepared for the period examined were developed while the U.S. airline indus-try was going through upheaval, the FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to inconclusive or inac-curate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current forecast methodology.

The table below contains the mean ab-solute percent errors for the projected val-ues versus the actual results for U.S. carri-ers’ system operations along with the pro-jected values versus actual results for U.S.

GDP. Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance by the number of years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the “3 Years” column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute percent error was 5.6 per-cent for ASM forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For the period under examination, preparation of the forecasts for FY 2010 through FY 2016 occurred in FY 2006 through FY 2015. 8

8 It should be noted that the first forecasted year for each respective fiscal year is that very same year. Therefore, FY 2010’s first forecasted year is FY 2010, and the third forecasted year is FY 2012.

52

Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplifies a review of longer-term trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to decrease as the forecast year is closer to the year the fore-cast is prepared. Presenting forecast vari-ances in this way allows an examination of changes in the relative variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur. Examination of the forecast variances re-veals several items. First, the forecast vari-ances for GDP, a key exogenous variable, are similar to the variances of the key traffic measures, Passenger Enplanements and RPMs. This suggests that a substantial amount of the forecast variance for the traf-fic variables may be attributed to the fore-cast error in the exogenous variables. Sec-

ond, all the metrics examined show increas-ing variances as the forecast time horizon lengthens. Third, the variance in the IFR aircraft handled relative to ASM variance is fairly consistent for the 2 to 4 year out hori-zon. This suggests that beyond a 2 year forecast horizon carriers are able to ac-commodate changes in capacity by means other than adjusting operations. Many car-riers have been systematically reducing the number smaller regional jets in their fleets, replacing them with larger 70-90 seat air-craft. This has allowed carriers to increase capacity without increasing flights. It is worth noting that the forecast variance in these two metrics is relatively consistent even as the time horizon increases suggest-ing that over the long run ASM growth is a good indicator of operations growth.

Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2010 - FY 2016)Forecast (Forecast Variance from Actual)Variable Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

U.S. Real GDP 1.3% 3.0% 5.7% 8.6% 10.6%ASMs 1.0% 2.3% 5.6% 10.3% 15.2%RPMs 1.1% 1.9% 4.6% 8.6% 12.5%Passenger Enplanements 0.8% 1.7% 4.6% 8.5% 12.0%Mainline Domestic Yield 3.0% 4.8% 5.2% 5.9% 7.5%IFR Aircraft Handled* 1.6% 3.5% 7.0% 11.6% 17.7%*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial

SYSTEM SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITYFORECAST EVALUATION

U.S. AIR CARRIERS

53

Appendix C: Forecast Tables

54

TAB

LE 1

U.S

. SH

OR

T-TE

RM

EC

ON

OM

IC F

OR

ECAS

TS

FISC

AL Y

EAR

2016

FISC

AL Y

EAR

2017

FISC

AL Y

EAR

2018

ECO

NOM

IC V

ARIA

BLE

1ST.

QTR

.2N

D. Q

TR.

3RD

QTR

.4T

H. Q

TR.

1ST.

QTR

.2N

D. Q

TR.

3RD

QTR

.4T

H. Q

TR.

1ST.

QTR

.2N

D. Q

TR.

3RD

QTR

.4T

H. Q

TR.

Real

Per

sona

l Con

sum

ptio

n Ex

pend

iture

pe

r Cap

ita

(2

009

$)35

,045

35,1

3235

,433

35,6

1435

,765

35,9

5436

,101

36,2

6536

,433

36,6

9036

,946

37,1

68Ye

ar o

ver y

ear c

hang

e1.

7%1.

5%1.

9%2.

0%2.

1%2.

3%1.

9%1.

8%1.

9%2.

0%2.

3%2.

5%

Refin

ers'

Acq

uisi

tion

Cost

- Av

erag

e

(D

olla

rs p

er b

arre

l)40

.61

30.7

842

.18

42.9

044

.32

45.6

348

.25

49.2

248

.46

47.3

950

.46

52.0

5Ye

ar o

ver y

ear c

hang

e-4

5.0%

-35.

8%-2

6.5%

-9.8

%9.

1%48

.2%

14.4

%14

.7%

9.3%

3.9%

4.6%

5.8%

Cons

umer

Pric

e In

dex

(198

2-84

equ

als

100)

238.

123

7.9

239.

424

0.4

242.

424

4.0

245.

424

6.6

247.

724

8.9

250.

425

1.8

Seas

onal

ly A

djus

ted

Annu

al R

ate

0.8%

-0.3

%2.

5%1.

6%3.

5%2.

6%2.

2%2.

0%1.

9%1.

8%2.

5%2.

3%So

urce

: IHS

Glo

bal I

nsig

ht

55

TAB

LE 2

U.S

. LO

NG

-TER

M E

CO

NO

MIC

FO

REC

AST

S

RE

AL

GR

OS

S

DO

ME

STI

C P

RO

DU

CT

RE

AL

PE

RS

ON

AL

CO

NS

UM

PTI

ON

E

XP

EN

DIT

UR

E P

ER

CA

PIT

AC

ON

SU

ME

R P

RIC

E

IND

EX

RE

FIN

ER

S'

AC

QU

ISIT

ION

CO

ST

AV

ER

AG

EFI

SC

AL

YE

AR

(Billi

ons

2009

$)

(20

09 $

)(1

982-

84=1

.00)

(Dol

lars

per

bar

rel)

His

toric

al20

1014

,685

32,1

862.

1774

.61

2011

14,9

5832

,787

2.23

96.0

020

1215

,306

33,0

342.

2910

2.81

2013

15,5

1033

,217

2.32

100.

7820

1415

,884

33,7

862.

3697

.79

2015

16,3

2134

,682

2.37

56.6

920

16E

16,5

8135

,306

2.39

39.1

2

Fore

cast

2017

16,9

3736

,022

2.45

46.8

520

1817

,365

36,8

102.

5049

.59

2019

17,7

9137

,651

2.56

55.4

820

2018

,163

38,2

592.

6262

.83

2021

18,5

6338

,832

2.69

70.1

9

2022

18,9

6039

,406

2.77

77.4

120

2319

,353

39,9

652.

8484

.22

2024

19,7

3040

,545

2.92

90.3

820

2520

,099

41,1

453.

0095

.95

2026

20,4

5441

,729

3.08

100.

92

2027

20,8

3442

,339

3.16

104.

7920

2821

,262

42,9

893.

2410

7.42

2029

21,6

8343

,623

3.31

109.

7920

3022

,114

44,2

443.

3911

2.24

2031

22,5

5744

,896

3.47

114.

76

2032

23,0

0245

,575

3.56

117.

3820

3323

,448

46,2

603.

6412

0.05

2034

23,9

2746

,962

3.73

122.

7920

3524

,411

47,6

623.

8212

5.60

2036

24,9

0148

,369

3.91

128.

4820

3725

,392

49,1

024.

0113

1.44

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

10-1

62.

0%1.

6%1.

6%-1

0.2%

2016

-17

2.1%

2.0%

2.4%

19.8

%20

16-2

62.

1%1.

7%2.

6%9.

9%20

16-3

72.

1%1.

6%2.

5%5.

9%S

ourc

e: IH

S G

loba

l Ins

ight

56

TABL

E 3

INTE

RNAT

IONA

L G

DP F

ORE

CAST

S BY

TRA

VEL

REG

ION

GROS

S DO

MES

TIC

PROD

UCT

(In B

illion

s of

201

0 U.

S. D

ollar

s)

CALE

NDAR

YEA

RCA

NADA

EURO

PE /

AFRI

CA/

MID

DLE

EAST

LATI

N AM

ERIC

A /

CARI

BBEA

N /

MEX

ICO

JAPA

N / P

ACIF

IC

BASI

N / C

HINA

/ OT

HER

ASIA

/ AU

STRA

LIA

/ NEW

ZE

ALAN

DW

ORLD

Histo

rical

2010

1,61

425

,032

5,20

119

,001

65,8

1120

111,

664

25,6

515,

430

19,8

9667

,844

2012

1,69

325

,854

5,57

820

,838

69,5

0420

131,

735

26,0

985,

737

21,8

5471

,226

2014

1,78

026

,579

5,79

722

,808

73,1

4020

151,

796

27,0

525,

773

23,8

1975

,037

2016

E1,

820

27,5

015,

711

24,8

5176

,739

Fore

cast

2017

1,85

827

,974

5,77

825

,928

78,7

7920

181,

902

28,5

405,

909

27,0

6481

,110

2019

1,94

529

,137

6,09

228

,252

83,5

2720

201,

984

29,7

746,

296

29,4

7386

,004

2021

2,02

630

,447

6,48

930

,802

88,6

42

2022

2,06

731

,137

6,69

432

,195

91,3

8420

232,

109

31,8

316,

902

33,6

2994

,165

2024

2,15

032

,530

7,12

235

,109

96,9

9420

252,

192

33,2

347,

344

36,6

0899

,832

2026

2,23

633

,930

7,57

838

,137

102,

713

2027

2,27

934

,639

7,81

839

,684

105,

659

2028

2,32

235

,353

8,06

441

,232

108,

641

2029

2,36

536

,071

8,31

642

,791

111,

643

2030

2,40

936

,802

8,57

644

,350

114,

677

2031

2,45

437

,539

8,84

345

,898

117,

725

2032

2,50

038

,284

9,11

947

,447

120,

792

2033

2,54

739

,040

9,40

349

,019

123,

910

2034

2,59

539

,806

9,69

750

,609

127,

097

2035

2,64

540

,584

10,0

0152

,240

130,

353

2036

2,69

641

,376

10,3

1353

,914

133,

678

2037

2,74

842

,186

10,6

3555

,623

137,

073

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

2.0%

1.6%

1.6%

4.6%

2.6%

2016

-17

2.1%

1.7%

1.2%

4.3%

2.7%

2016

-26

2.1%

2.1%

2.9%

4.4%

3.0%

2016

-37

2.0%

2.1%

3.0%

3.9%

2.8%

Sour

ce:

Glob

al In

sight

web

site,

GDP

Com

pone

nts

Table

s (In

terim

For

ecas

t, M

onth

ly)

57

TAB

LE 4

INTE

RN

ATIO

NAL

GD

P FO

REC

ASTS

– S

ELEC

TED

AR

EAS/

CO

UN

TRIE

S

GRO

SS D

OM

ESTI

C P

ROD

UCT

(In B

illion

s of

201

0 U.

S. D

olla

rs)

CAL

END

AR Y

EAR

NORT

H AM

ERIC

A (N

AFTA

)EU

ROZO

NEUN

ITED

KI

NGD

OM

JAPA

NC

HINA

Hist

oric

al20

1017

,629

12,6

452,

431

5,71

36,

085

2011

17,9

6212

,846

2,46

85,

708

6,66

820

1218

,371

12,7

362,

500

5,79

37,

190

2013

18,6

9212

,708

2,54

85,

910

7,74

820

1419

,137

12,8

582,

626

5,92

58,

314

2015

19,6

0513

,106

2,68

45,

999

8,89

020

16E

19,9

1413

,326

2,74

06,

058

9,48

5

Fore

cast

2017

20,3

6213

,516

2,77

66,

120

10,0

8920

1820

,889

13,7

322,

809

6,17

610

,717

2019

21,3

7513

,932

2,85

26,

219

11,3

7020

2021

,830

14,1

242,

904

6,23

012

,062

2021

22,3

1314

,333

2,97

06,

290

12,7

87

2022

22,8

0914

,550

3,03

96,

351

13,5

5720

2323

,297

14,7

673,

107

6,41

814

,355

2024

23,7

7114

,984

3,17

36,

483

15,1

9120

2524

,230

15,1

973,

239

6,54

516

,036

2026

24,7

0015

,409

3,30

66,

607

16,8

96

2027

25,2

0115

,620

3,37

56,

666

17,7

6520

2825

,725

15,8

323,

444

6,72

218

,621

2029

26,2

4816

,045

3,51

46,

779

19,4

6820

3026

,786

16,2

583,

584

6,83

320

,302

2031

27,3

3516

,472

3,65

66,

885

21,1

16

2032

27,8

8816

,685

3,73

06,

936

21,9

1120

3328

,453

16,8

983,

805

6,98

722

,707

2034

29,0

5017

,112

3,88

17,

037

23,5

0720

3529

,657

17,3

273,

959

7,08

524

,326

2036

30,2

7017

,541

4,03

87,

133

25,1

6620

3730

,894

17,7

584,

119

7,17

826

,019

Avg

Annu

al G

rowt

h20

10-1

62.

1%0.

9%2.

0%1.

0%7.

7%20

16-1

72.

2%1.

4%1.

3%1.

0%6.

4%20

16-2

62.

2%1.

5%1.

9%0.

9%5.

9%20

16-3

72.

1%1.

4%2.

0%0.

8%4.

9%So

urce

: G

loba

l Ins

ight

web

site

, GD

P C

ompo

nent

s Ta

bles

(Int

erim

For

ecas

t, M

onth

ly)

58

TABL

E 5

U.S.

COM

MERC

IAL

AIR

CARR

IERS

1

TOTA

L SC

HEDU

LED

U.S.

PAS

SENG

ER T

RAFF

IC

REVE

NUE

PASS

ENGE

R EN

PLAN

EMEN

TS (M

illion

s)RE

VENU

E PA

SSEN

GER

MILE

S (B

illion

s)FI

SCAL

YEA

RDO

MEST

ICIN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

TOTA

L D

OMES

TIC

INTE

RNAT

IONA

L TO

TAL

Histo

rical

2010

635

7771

255

523

178

620

1165

081

731

572

242

815

2012

654

8373

757

824

582

220

1365

485

739

584

250

834

2014

669

8875

760

025

785

720

1569

690

786

629

261

890

2016

E72

693

820

663

265

928

Fore

cast

2017

742

9683

868

427

095

420

1876

299

861

705

281

986

2019

783

103

886

726

292

1,01

820

2079

410

790

173

830

41,

042

2021

805

111

916

750

316

1,06

6

2022

815

115

931

762

327

1,09

020

2382

611

994

677

433

91,

114

2024

838

124

962

788

351

1,13

920

2585

112

897

980

236

31,

165

2026

863

132

996

816

375

1,19

1

2027

877

137

1,01

483

138

71,

218

2028

892

142

1,03

484

840

01,

248

2029

907

147

1,05

486

441

31,

277

2030

921

151

1,07

388

042

61,

306

2031

937

156

1,09

389

743

91,

336

2032

953

161

1,11

491

545

31,

367

2033

968

167

1,13

593

246

61,

399

2034

985

172

1,15

895

148

11,

432

2035

1,00

217

81,

180

970

495

1,46

520

361,

019

184

1,20

398

951

01,

499

2037

1,03

719

01,

227

1,00

952

51,

534

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

2.3%

3.2%

2.4%

3.0%

2.3%

2.8%

2016

-17

2.2%

2.3%

2.2%

3.2%

1.9%

2.8%

2016

-26

1.7%

3.6%

2.0%

2.1%

3.5%

2.5%

2016

-37

1.7%

3.4%

1.9%

2.0%

3.3%

2.4%

Sour

ce: F

orms

41

and

298-

C, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

1 Sum

of U

.S. M

ainlin

e an

d Re

giona

l Air

Carri

ers.

59

TAB

LE 6

U.S

. CO

MM

ERC

IAL

AIR

CAR

RIE

RS1

SCH

EDU

LED

PAS

SEN

GER

CAP

ACIT

Y, T

RAF

FIC

, AN

D L

OAD

FAC

TOR

S

DO

MES

TIC

INTE

RNAT

IONA

LSY

STEM

FISC

AL Y

EAR

ASM

s (B

IL)

RPM

s (B

IL)

% L

OAD

FA

CTO

RAS

Ms

(BIL

)RP

Ms

(BIL

)%

LO

AD

FAC

TOR

ASM

s (B

IL)

RPM

s (B

IL)

% L

OAD

FA

CTO

RHi

stor

ical

2010

679

555

81.7

281

231

82.1

961

786

81.8

2011

693

572

82.5

300

242

80.7

994

815

82.0

2012

694

578

83.2

300

245

81.4

995

822

82.6

2013

700

584

83.4

303

250

82.6

1,00

383

483

.220

1471

160

084

.431

525

781

.41,

026

857

83.5

2015

744

629

84.5

323

261

80.7

1,06

789

083

.420

16E

783

663

84.7

329

265

80.6

1,11

292

883

.5

Fore

cast

2017

813

684

84.1

334

270

80.9

1,14

795

483

.220

1883

570

584

.434

728

180

.91,

182

986

83.4

2019

857

726

84.7

361

292

81.0

1,21

81,

018

83.6

2020

870

738

84.9

375

304

81.1

1,24

51,

042

83.7

2021

882

750

85.1

389

316

81.1

1,27

11,

066

83.9

2022

894

762

85.2

403

327

81.2

1,29

71,

090

84.0

2023

907

774

85.4

417

339

81.3

1,32

41,

114

84.1

2024

921

788

85.5

432

351

81.3

1,35

31,

139

84.2

2025

936

802

85.6

446

363

81.3

1,38

31,

165

84.2

2026

952

816

85.7

461

375

81.3

1,41

31,

191

84.3

2027

968

831

85.8

476

387

81.3

1,44

41,

218

84.3

2028

987

848

85.9

492

400

81.3

1,47

91,

248

84.4

2029

1,00

586

486

.050

841

381

.31,

513

1,27

784

.420

301,

023

880

86.0

524

426

81.3

1,54

71,

306

84.4

2031

1,04

289

786

.154

043

981

.31,

582

1,33

684

.5

2032

1,06

291

586

.255

745

381

.31,

618

1,36

784

.520

331,

082

932

86.2

574

466

81.3

1,65

51,

399

84.5

2034

1,10

395

186

.259

148

181

.31,

694

1,43

284

.520

351,

124

970

86.3

609

495

81.3

1,73

31,

465

84.5

2036

1,14

698

986

.362

751

081

.31,

773

1,49

984

.620

371,

169

1,00

986

.464

652

581

.31,

814

1,53

484

.6

Avg

Annu

al G

rowt

h20

10-1

62.

4%3.

0%2.

6%2.

3%2.

5%2.

8%20

16-1

73.

9%3.

2%1.

5%1.

9%3.

2%2.

8%20

16-2

62.

0%2.

1%3.

4%3.

5%2.

4%2.

5%20

16-3

71.

9%2.

0%3.

3%3.

3%2.

4%2.

4%So

urce

: For

ms

41 a

nd 2

98-C

, U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.1 Su

m o

f U.S

. Mai

nlin

e an

d Re

gion

al A

ir C

arrie

rs.

60

TAB

LE 7

U.S

. CO

MM

ERC

IAL

AIR

CA

RR

IER

S1

TOTA

L SC

HED

ULE

D U

.S. I

NTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

PASS

ENG

ER T

RA

FFIC

REVE

NUE

PASS

ENG

ER E

NPLA

NEM

ENTS

REVE

NUE

PASS

ENG

ER M

ILES

ATLA

NTIC

LATI

N AM

ERIC

APA

CIF

ICTO

TAL

INTE

RNAT

IONA

LAT

LANT

ICLA

TIN

AMER

ICA

PAC

IFIC

TOTA

L IN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

FISC

AL Y

EAR

(Mil)

(Mil)

(Mil)

(Mil)

(Bil)

(Bil)

(Bil)

(Bil)

Hist

oric

al20

1025

4013

7710

963

5923

120

1125

4214

8111

267

6424

220

1225

4414

8310

870

6624

520

1325

4614

8510

775

6925

020

1425

4914

8810

880

6925

720

1525

5214

9010

783

7126

120

16E

2455

1493

105

8773

265

Fore

cast

2017

2457

1496

105

8877

270

2018

2559

1599

110

9279

281

2019

2661

1510

311

597

8129

220

2027

6416

107

119

102

8330

420

2128

6716

111

123

107

8531

6

2022

2970

1611

512

711

288

327

2023

3073

1711

913

111

790

339

2024

3076

1712

413

512

393

351

2025

3179

1812

813

912

895

363

2026

3282

1813

214

313

498

375

2027

3386

1913

714

714

010

138

720

2833

8919

142

150

146

103

400

2029

3493

2014

715

415

210

641

320

3035

9620

151

158

159

109

426

2031

3610

021

156

162

165

112

439

2032

3710

421

161

166

172

114

453

2033

3710

821

167

171

179

117

466

2034

3811

222

172

175

186

120

481

2035

3911

623

178

179

193

123

495

2036

4012

023

184

183

201

126

510

2037

4112

524

190

188

209

129

525

Avg

Annu

al G

rowt

h20

10-1

6-0

.1%

5.5%

1.4%

3.2%

-0.6

%5.

6%3.

5%2.

3%20

16-1

7-0

.3%

3.4%

2.8%

2.3%

0.1%

1.1%

5.4%

1.9%

2016

-26

2.7%

4.1%

2.6%

3.6%

3.2%

4.4%

3.0%

3.5%

2016

-37

2.5%

4.0%

2.5%

3.4%

2.8%

4.2%

2.8%

3.3%

Sour

ce: F

orm

s 41

and

298

-C, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

1 Sum

of U

.S. M

ainl

ine

and

Regi

onal

Air

Car

riers

.

61

TABL

E 8

U.S.

AND

FO

REIG

N FL

AG C

ARRI

ERS

TOTA

L PA

SSEN

GER

TRA

FFIC

TO

/FRO

M T

HE U

NITE

D ST

ATES

TOTA

L PA

SSEN

GERS

BY

WOR

LD T

RAVE

L AR

EA (M

illion

s)

CALE

NDAR

YEA

RAT

LANT

ICLA

TIN

AMER

ICA

PACI

FIC

U.S.

/CAN

ADA

TRAN

SBOR

DER

TOTA

LHi

storic

al20

1056

5327

2215

720

1158

5728

2316

620

1261

6131

2517

820

1363

6532

2618

520

1466

6934

2819

720

1570

7536

2720

720

16E

7379

3927

219

Fore

cast

2017

7783

4128

229

2018

7984

4330

235

2019

8286

4431

243

2020

8689

4632

252

2021

8992

4833

262

2022

9296

5034

273

2023

9699

5335

283

2024

9910

355

3729

420

2510

310

857

3830

520

2610

611

259

3931

6

2027

110

117

6240

328

2028

113

122

6442

340

2029

117

127

6643

353

2030

121

132

6944

366

2031

124

138

7146

379

2032

128

143

7347

392

2033

132

149

7649

406

2034

136

156

7851

421

2035

140

163

8052

436

2036

145

170

8354

451

2037

149

177

8556

467

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

4.6%

6.8%

6.6%

3.8%

5.6%

2016

-17

4.6%

5.2%

4.4%

3.8%

4.7%

2016

-26

3.7%

3.6%

4.3%

3.6%

3.8%

2016

-37

3.4%

3.9%

3.8%

3.5%

3.7%

Sour

ce:

US C

usto

ms

& Bo

rder

Pro

tect

ion

data

pro

cess

ed a

nd re

lease

d by

Dep

artm

ent o

f Com

mer

ce;

data

also

rece

ived

from

Tra

nspo

rt Ca

nad

62

TABL

E 9

U.S.

COM

MERC

IAL

AIR

CARR

IERS

' FOR

ECAS

T AS

SUMP

TION

S1

SEAT

S PE

R AI

RCRA

FT M

ILE

AND

PASS

ENGE

R TR

IP L

ENGT

H

AVER

AGE

SEAT

S PE

R AI

RCRA

FT M

ILE

AVER

AGE

PASS

ENGE

R TR

IP L

ENGT

H

FISC

AL Y

EAR

DOM

ESTI

C (S

eats/

Mile

)IN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

SYST

EM

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

DOM

ESTI

C (M

iles)

INTE

RNAT

IONA

L (M

iles)

SYST

EM

(Mile

s)Hi

storic

al20

1012

1.8

216.

413

9.7

874.

82,

988.

01,

104.

220

1112

2.5

216.

814

1.1

880.

12,

992.

71,

114.

220

1212

3.4

213.

914

1.5

883.

62,

949.

61,

116.

120

1312

4.9

214.

414

3.0

893.

62,

942.

11,

129.

520

1412

7.4

214.

814

5.6

897.

02,

917.

01,

131.

820

1513

1.5

214.

814

9.0

902.

72,

892.

31,

131.

020

16E

134.

621

4.8

151.

391

3.2

2,83

3.7

1,13

2.2

Fore

cast

2017

136.

221

5.7

152.

692

2.3

2,82

1.8

1,13

9.1

2018

137.

121

6.3

153.

692

4.7

2,83

6.0

1,14

4.6

2019

138.

021

6.6

154.

692

7.2

2,83

8.7

1,14

9.6

2020

138.

721

6.9

155.

692

9.8

2,83

8.7

1,15

6.5

2021

139.

421

7.2

156.

593

2.3

2,83

9.4

1,16

3.7

2022

140.

021

7.5

157.

493

4.8

2,83

9.4

1,17

0.8

2023

140.

621

7.8

158.

293

7.3

2,84

0.0

1,17

7.7

2024

141.

221

8.1

159.

193

9.9

2,83

6.4

1,18

4.0

2025

141.

721

8.4

159.

894

2.4

2,83

3.6

1,18

9.8

2026

142.

221

8.7

160.

694

4.9

2,82

9.7

1,19

5.7

2027

142.

821

9.0

161.

394

7.5

2,82

5.6

1,20

1.4

2028

143.

321

9.3

162.

095

0.1

2,82

1.3

1,20

6.6

2029

143.

921

9.6

162.

795

2.6

2,81

7.5

1,21

1.9

2030

144.

421

9.9

163.

495

5.2

2,81

3.1

1,21

7.4

2031

144.

922

0.2

164.

095

7.7

2,80

8.7

1,22

2.5

2032

145.

422

0.5

164.

796

0.3

2,80

4.5

1,22

7.5

2033

145.

922

0.8

165.

396

2.8

2,79

7.8

1,23

2.3

2034

146.

422

1.1

166.

096

5.4

2,79

0.4

1,23

6.9

2035

146.

922

1.4

166.

696

7.9

2,78

3.3

1,24

1.6

2036

147.

422

1.7

167.

297

0.5

2,77

6.4

1,24

6.3

2037

147.

922

2.0

167.

897

3.1

2,76

9.9

1,25

0.8

Sour

ce: F

orm

s 41

and

298

-C, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

1 Sum

of U

.S. M

ainli

ne a

nd R

egio

nal A

ir Ca

rrier

s.

63

TABL

E 10

U. S

. MAI

NLIN

E AI

R CA

RRIE

RS

SCHE

DULE

D PA

SSEN

GER

TRAF

FIC

REVE

NUE

PASS

ENGE

R EN

PLAN

EMEN

TSRE

VENU

E PA

SSEN

GER

MIL

ES(M

illion

s)(B

illion

s)FI

SCAL

YEA

RDO

MES

TIC

INTE

RNAT

IONA

LSY

STEM

DOM

ESTI

CIN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

SYST

EMHi

storic

al20

1047

375

548

480

230

710

2011

488

7956

749

724

173

820

1249

580

575

503

243

746

2013

498

8258

051

124

875

920

1451

585

600

527

255

782

2015

543

8763

055

625

981

520

16E

575

9066

559

026

285

2

Fore

cast

2017

589

9268

161

126

787

820

1860

695

701

629

278

907

2019

622

9972

164

829

093

720

2063

110

373

465

930

196

020

2163

910

774

766

931

398

2

2022

648

111

759

680

325

1,00

420

2365

711

677

269

133

61,

027

2024

666

120

786

702

348

1,05

020

2567

612

480

071

536

01,

075

2026

686

128

815

727

372

1,09

9

2027

697

133

830

740

384

1,12

520

2870

913

784

775

539

71,

152

2029

721

142

863

770

410

1,17

920

3073

314

788

078

442

31,

207

2031

745

152

897

799

436

1,23

5

2032

757

157

914

815

449

1,26

420

3377

016

293

283

046

31,

293

2034

783

168

951

847

477

1,32

420

3579

717

397

086

449

11,

355

2036

811

179

989

881

506

1,38

720

3782

518

51,

009

898

521

1,41

9

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

3.3%

3.2%

3.3%

3.5%

2.2%

3.1%

2016

-17

2.6%

2.4%

2.6%

3.5%

1.9%

3.0%

2016

-26

1.8%

3.6%

2.1%

2.1%

3.6%

2.6%

2016

-37

1.7%

3.5%

2.0%

2.0%

3.3%

2.5%

Sour

ce: F

orm

41,

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.

64

TAB

LE 1

1

U.S

. MAI

NLI

NE

AIR

CAR

RIE

RS

SCH

EDU

LED

PAS

SEN

GER

CAP

ACIT

Y, T

RAF

FIC

, AN

D L

OAD

FAC

TOR

S

DO

MES

TIC

INTE

RNAT

IONA

LSY

STEM

FISC

AL Y

EAR

ASM

s (B

IL)

RPM

s (B

IL)

% L

OAD

FA

CTO

RAS

Ms

(BIL

)RP

Ms

(BIL

)%

LO

AD

FAC

TOR

ASM

s (B

IL)

RPM

s (B

IL)

% L

OAD

FA

CTO

RHi

stor

ical

2010

581

480

82.7

279

230

82.2

860

710

82.5

2011

594

497

83.6

299

241

80.8

893

738

82.6

2012

599

503

84.1

298

243

81.5

897

746

83.2

2013

607

511

84.2

301

248

82.6

907

759

83.7

2014

620

527

85.0

313

255

81.4

933

782

83.8

2015

653

556

85.1

321

259

80.8

973

815

83.7

2016

E69

259

085

.332

526

280

.71,

017

852

83.8

Fore

cast

2017

722

611

84.6

330

267

80.9

1,05

287

883

.520

1874

162

984

.934

427

881

.01,

085

907

83.7

2019

761

648

85.1

357

290

81.0

1,11

893

783

.820

2077

265

985

.437

130

181

.11,

143

960

84.0

2021

782

669

85.6

385

313

81.2

1,16

798

284

.1

2022

793

680

85.7

399

325

81.3

1,19

21,

004

84.2

2023

804

691

85.9

413

336

81.4

1,21

81,

027

84.3

2024

817

702

86.0

428

348

81.4

1,24

41,

050

84.4

2025

830

715

86.1

442

360

81.4

1,27

21,

075

84.5

2026

843

727

86.2

457

372

81.4

1,30

01,

099

84.5

2027

858

740

86.3

472

384

81.4

1,33

01,

125

84.6

2028

874

755

86.4

488

397

81.4

1,36

21,

152

84.6

2029

890

770

86.5

503

410

81.4

1,39

41,

179

84.6

2030

906

784

86.5

519

423

81.4

1,42

51,

207

84.7

2031

923

799

86.6

535

436

81.4

1,45

81,

235

84.7

2032

940

815

86.7

552

449

81.4

1,49

21,

264

84.7

2033

958

830

86.7

569

463

81.4

1,52

61,

293

84.7

2034

976

847

86.8

586

477

81.4

1,56

21,

324

84.7

2035

995

864

86.8

604

491

81.4

1,59

91,

355

84.8

2036

1,01

488

186

.862

250

681

.41,

636

1,38

784

.820

371,

034

898

86.9

640

521

81.4

1,67

41,

419

84.8

Avg

Annu

al G

rowt

h20

10-1

63.

0%3.

5%2.

6%2.

2%-0

.3%

2.8%

3.1%

2016

-17

4.3%

3.5%

1.6%

1.9%

0.4%

3.4%

3.0%

2016

-26

2.0%

2.1%

3.5%

3.6%

0.1%

2.5%

2.6%

2016

-37

1.9%

2.0%

3.3%

3.3%

0.0%

2.4%

2.5%

Sour

ce:

Form

41,

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.

65

TABL

E 12

U.S.

MAI

NLIN

E AI

R CA

RRIE

RS

SCHE

DULE

D IN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

PASS

ENGE

R EN

PLAN

EMEN

TS

REVE

NUE

PASS

ENGE

R EN

PLAN

EMEN

TS (M

IL)

FISC

AL Y

EAR

ATLA

NTIC

LATI

N AM

ERIC

APA

CIFI

CTO

TAL

Histo

rical

2010

24.5

37.2

12.9

74.6

2011

25.3

39.8

13.5

78.6

2012

24.8

41.0

14.0

79.9

2013

24.8

43.0

14.4

82.2

2014

25.0

46.2

14.0

85.1

2015

24.6

48.6

14.0

87.2

2016

E24

.451

.514

.089

.9

Fore

cast

2017

24.3

53.3

14.4

92.1

2018

25.5

55.1

14.8

95.4

2019

26.4

57.7

15.2

99.3

2020

27.2

60.4

15.6

103.

220

2128

.163

.216

.010

7.3

2022

28.9

66.1

16.4

111.

420

2329

.769

.016

.811

5.5

2024

30.4

72.1

17.3

119.

820

2531

.175

.117

.712

4.0

2026

31.9

78.3

18.2

128.

3

2027

32.6

81.6

18.6

132.

920

2833

.485

.019

.113

7.5

2029

34.2

88.4

19.6

142.

220

3035

.091

.920

.114

7.0

2031

35.8

95.5

20.5

151.

9

2032

36.6

99.2

21.0

156.

820

3337

.410

3.1

21.5

162.

120

3438

.310

7.2

22.0

167.

520

3539

.211

1.4

22.5

173.

120

3640

.211

5.6

23.0

178.

820

3741

.111

9.9

23.6

184.

6

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

-0.1

%5.

6%1.

4%3.

2%20

16-1

7-0

.3%

3.6%

2.8%

2.4%

2016

-26

2.7%

4.3%

2.6%

3.6%

2016

-37

2.5%

4.1%

2.5%

3.5%

Sour

ce: F

orm

41, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

66

TABL

E 13

U.S.

MAI

NLIN

E AI

R CA

RRIE

RS

SCHE

DULE

D PA

SSEN

GER

CAPA

CITY

, TRA

FFIC

, AND

LOA

D FA

CTOR

SBY

INTE

RNAT

IONA

L TR

AVEL

REG

IONS

ATLA

NTIC

LATI

N AM

ERIC

APA

CIFI

CIN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

FISC

AL Y

EAR

ASMs

(B

IL)

RPMs

(B

IL)

% L

OAD

FACT

ORAS

Ms

(BIL

)RP

Ms

(BIL

)%

LOA

D FA

CTOR

ASMs

(B

IL)

RPMs

(B

IL)

% L

OAD

FACT

ORAS

Ms

(BIL

)RP

Ms

(BIL

)%

LOA

D FA

CTOR

Histo

rical

2010

131

109

82.9

7862

79.2

7059

84.1

279

230

82.2

2011

138

112

80.7

8266

79.9

7864

81.8

299

241

80.8

2012

132

108

81.5

8568

80.9

8166

82.0

298

243

81.5

2013

128

107

83.3

9073

81.1

8369

83.1

301

248

82.6

2014

132

108

81.7

9778

80.6

8469

82.0

313

255

81.4

2015

133

107

80.0

101

8180

.386

7182

.532

125

980

.820

16E

134

105

78.0

104

8581

.487

7383

.932

526

280

.7

Fore

cast

2017

133

105

78.9

105

8681

.692

7783

.233

026

780

.920

1814

011

079

.010

989

81.6

9579

83.2

344

278

81.0

2019

145

115

79.2

115

9481

.697

8183

.235

729

081

.020

2015

011

979

.412

199

81.6

100

8383

.237

130

181

.120

2115

512

379

.612

710

481

.610

385

83.2

385

313

81.2

2022

160

127

79.8

134

109

81.6

106

8883

.239

932

581

.320

2316

413

180

.014

011

581

.610

990

83.2

413

336

81.4

2024

169

135

80.0

147

120

81.6

112

9383

.242

834

881

.420

2517

413

980

.015

412

581

.611

595

83.2

442

360

81.4

2026

178

143

80.0

161

131

81.6

118

9883

.245

737

281

.4

2027

183

147

80.0

168

137

81.6

121

101

83.2

472

384

81.4

2028

188

150

80.0

175

143

81.6

124

103

83.2

488

397

81.4

2029

193

154

80.0

183

149

81.6

128

106

83.2

503

410

81.4

2030

198

158

80.0

190

155

81.6

131

109

83.2

519

423

81.4

2031

203

162

80.0

198

162

81.6

134

112

83.2

535

436

81.4

2032

208

166

80.0

207

168

81.6

137

114

83.2

552

449

81.4

2033

213

171

80.0

215

175

81.6

141

117

83.2

569

463

81.4

2034

218

175

80.0

224

182

81.6

144

120

83.2

586

477

81.4

2035

224

179

80.0

233

190

81.6

148

123

83.2

604

491

81.4

2036

229

183

80.0

242

197

81.6

151

126

83.2

622

506

81.4

2037

235

188

80.0

251

205

81.6

155

129

83.2

640

521

81.4

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

0.4%

-0.6

%4.

9%5.

4%3.

7%3.

6%2.

6%2.

2%20

16-1

7-0

.9%

-0.2

%1.

3%1.

0%5.

8%4.

9%1.

6%1.

9%20

16-2

62.

9%3.

1%4.

4%4.

4%3.

1%3.

0%3.

5%3.

6%20

16-3

72.

7%2.

8%4.

3%4.

3%2.

8%2.

7%3.

3%3.

3%So

urce

: For

m 41

, U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.

67

TABL

E 14

U.S.

MAI

NLIN

E AI

R CA

RRIE

R FO

RECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NS

SEAT

S PE

R AI

RCRA

FT M

ILE

INTE

RNAT

IONA

L

FISC

AL Y

EAR

DOM

ESTI

C (S

eats/

Mile

)AT

LANT

IC

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

LATI

N AM

ERIC

A (S

eats/

Mile

)PA

CIFI

C (S

eats/

Mile

)TO

TAL

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

SYST

EM

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

Histo

rical

2010

152.

023

1.7

171.

728

7.2

220.

916

9.2

2011

152.

323

0.5

173.

228

2.9

221.

017

0.0

2012

152.

723

0.4

171.

827

8.3

219.

416

9.9

2013

153.

923

3.3

171.

827

6.2

219.

217

0.8

2014

155.

523

6.1

173.

027

6.2

219.

717

2.4

2015

157.

723

7.0

173.

927

2.1

219.

517

3.8

2016

E15

9.8

241.

717

4.1

266.

621

9.8

175.

1

Fore

cast

2017

160.

424

2.2

174.

626

7.3

220.

617

5.4

2018

161.

124

2.7

175.

126

8.1

221.

117

6.2

2019

161.

724

3.2

175.

626

8.8

221.

417

6.9

2020

162.

324

3.7

176.

126

9.6

221.

517

7.7

2021

162.

924

4.2

176.

627

0.3

221.

717

8.5

2022

163.

524

4.7

177.

127

1.1

221.

917

9.3

2023

164.

024

5.2

177.

627

1.8

222.

118

0.0

2024

164.

624

5.7

178.

127

2.6

222.

318

0.7

2025

165.

124

6.2

178.

627

3.3

222.

618

1.4

2026

165.

624

6.7

179.

127

4.1

222.

818

2.0

2027

166.

124

7.2

179.

627

4.8

223.

118

2.6

2028

166.

624

7.7

180.

127

5.6

223.

318

3.2

2029

167.

024

8.2

180.

627

6.3

223.

518

3.8

2030

167.

524

8.7

181.

127

7.1

223.

818

4.4

2031

167.

924

9.2

181.

627

7.8

224.

018

4.9

2032

168.

324

9.7

182.

127

8.6

224.

318

5.4

2033

168.

725

0.2

182.

627

9.3

224.

518

5.9

2034

169.

125

0.7

183.

128

0.1

224.

818

6.4

2035

169.

525

1.2

183.

628

0.8

225.

018

7.0

2036

169.

925

1.7

184.

128

1.6

225.

318

7.5

2037

170.

425

2.2

184.

628

2.3

225.

618

8.0

Sour

ce: F

orm

41,

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.

68

TAB

LE 1

5

U.S

. MAI

NLI

NE

AIR

CAR

RIE

R F

OR

ECAS

T AS

SUM

PTIO

NS

AVER

AGE

PASS

ENG

ER T

RIP

LEN

GTH

INTE

RNAT

IONA

L

FISC

AL Y

EAR

DO

MES

TIC

(M

iles)

ATLA

NTIC

(M

iles)

LATI

N AM

ERIC

A (M

iles)

PAC

IFIC

(M

iles)

TOTA

L (M

iles)

SYST

EM

(Mile

s)Hi

stor

ical

2010

1,01

54,

433

1,66

04,

587

3,07

71,

296

2011

1,01

74,

415

1,65

54,

707

3,06

81,

301

2012

1,01

74,

356

1,66

84,

725

3,04

01,

298

2013

1,02

64,

313

1,69

34,

774

3,02

31,

309

2014

1,02

44,

321

1,69

64,

910

2,99

31,

303

2015

1,02

34,

336

1,66

95,

080

2,96

91,

292

2016

E1,

027

4,29

11,

650

5,17

62,

917

1,28

3

Fore

cast

2017

1,03

64,

311

1,61

15,

303

2,90

31,

288

2018

1,03

94,

332

1,61

95,

316

2,91

71,

294

2019

1,04

14,

354

1,62

75,

328

2,91

91,

300

2020

1,04

44,

376

1,63

55,

340

2,91

71,

307

2021

1,04

74,

393

1,64

45,

351

2,91

51,

315

2022

1,04

94,

411

1,65

25,

362

2,91

31,

323

2023

1,05

24,

428

1,66

05,

372

2,91

21,

330

2024

1,05

44,

446

1,66

45,

381

2,90

71,

337

2025

1,05

74,

464

1,66

85,

391

2,90

21,

343

2026

1,06

04,

477

1,67

35,

399

2,89

71,

349

2027

1,06

24,

491

1,67

75,

407

2,89

11,

355

2028

1,06

54,

504

1,68

15,

415

2,88

61,

361

2029

1,06

84,

518

1,68

55,

422

2,88

01,

366

2030

1,07

04,

527

1,68

95,

428

2,87

51,

372

2031

1,07

34,

536

1,69

45,

434

2,86

91,

377

2032

1,07

64,

545

1,69

85,

440

2,86

41,

382

2033

1,07

84,

554

1,69

95,

445

2,85

61,

387

2034

1,08

14,

559

1,70

15,

449

2,84

71,

392

2035

1,08

44,

563

1,70

35,

453

2,83

91,

397

2036

1,08

74,

568

1,70

55,

456

2,83

11,

402

2037

1,08

94,

572

1,70

65,

459

2,82

31,

406

Sour

ce: F

orm

41,

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.

69

TABL

E 16

U.S.

MAI

NLIN

E AI

R CA

RRIE

R FO

RECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NS

PASS

ENGE

R YI

ELDS

REVE

NUE

PER

PASS

ENGE

R MI

LE

DOME

STIC

INTE

RNAT

IONA

LSY

STEM

FISC

AL Y

EAR

CURR

ENT

$

(Cen

ts)FY

201

6 $

(C

ents)

CURR

ENT

$

(Cen

ts)FY

201

6 $

(C

ents)

CURR

ENT

$

(Cen

ts)FY

201

6 $

(C

ents)

Histo

rical

2010

12.6

213

.87

12.8

414

.11

12.6

913

.95

2011

13.6

214

.59

14.0

915

.09

13.7

714

.75

2012

14.0

814

.73

14.7

415

.41

14.3

014

.95

2013

14.4

214

.83

14.8

015

.23

14.5

414

.96

2014

15.1

115

.30

14.9

415

.12

15.0

615

.24

2015

14.7

914

.93

14.1

614

.29

14.5

914

.72

2016

E13

.96

13.9

612

.88

12.8

813

.62

13.6

2

Fore

cast

2017

14.0

313

.70

13.0

812

.78

13.7

413

.42

2018

14.2

913

.68

13.2

812

.71

13.9

813

.38

2019

14.6

813

.72

13.5

112

.63

14.3

213

.39

2020

15.1

313

.78

13.7

912

.56

14.7

113

.40

2021

15.5

813

.82

14.0

712

.48

15.1

013

.39

2022

16.0

213

.84

14.3

612

.41

15.4

913

.38

2023

16.4

713

.84

14.6

712

.33

15.8

813

.35

2024

16.9

013

.82

14.9

812

.25

16.2

613

.30

2025

17.3

213

.79

15.2

912

.17

16.6

413

.25

2026

17.7

213

.74

15.6

012

.10

17.0

013

.19

2027

18.0

913

.68

15.9

012

.02

17.3

513

.11

2028

18.4

213

.60

16.1

911

.95

17.6

513

.03

2029

18.7

413

.52

16.4

711

.88

17.9

512

.95

2030

19.0

713

.43

16.7

611

.81

18.2

612

.86

2031

19.4

113

.35

17.0

711

.74

18.5

812

.78

2032

19.7

613

.27

17.3

711

.67

18.9

112

.70

2033

20.1

113

.19

17.6

711

.59

19.2

412

.62

2034

20.4

713

.11

17.9

911

.52

19.5

812

.54

2035

20.8

413

.03

18.3

011

.44

19.9

212

.45

2036

21.2

112

.95

18.6

211

.37

20.2

712

.37

2037

21.5

912

.87

18.9

511

.30

20.6

212

.29

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

1.7%

0.1%

0.1%

-1.5

%1.

2%-0

.4%

2016

-17

0.5%

-1.8

%1.

6%-0

.8%

0.9%

-1.5

%20

16-2

62.

4%-0

.2%

1.9%

-0.6

%2.

2%-0

.3%

2016

-37

2.1%

-0.4

%1.

9%-0

.6%

2.0%

-0.5

%So

urce

: For

m 41

, U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.

70

TABL

E 17

U.S.

MAI

NLIN

E AI

R CA

RRIE

R FO

RECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NSIN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

PASS

ENGE

R YI

ELDS

BY

REGI

ON

REVE

NUE

PER

PASS

ENGE

R MI

LEAT

LANT

ICLA

TIN

AMER

ICA

PACI

FIC

TOTA

L IN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

FISC

AL Y

EAR

CURR

ENT

$

(Cen

ts)FY

201

6 $

(C

ents)

CURR

ENT

$

(Cen

ts)FY

201

6 $

(C

ents)

CURR

ENT

$

(Cen

ts)FY

201

6 $

(C

ents)

CURR

ENT

$

(Cen

ts)FY

201

6 $

(C

ents)

Histo

rical

2010

12.7

314

.00

13.3

314

.65

12.5

013

.74

12.8

414

.11

2011

13.4

814

.44

15.1

316

.21

14.0

715

.07

14.0

915

.09

2012

13.9

514

.58

15.7

916

.51

14.9

515

.63

14.7

415

.41

2013

14.4

514

.86

15.8

016

.25

14.3

014

.71

14.8

015

.23

2014

14.8

415

.02

15.7

615

.96

14.1

514

.32

14.9

415

.12

2015

14.6

414

.77

14.3

814

.51

13.2

013

.32

14.1

614

.29

2016

E13

.83

13.8

312

.72

12.7

211

.69

11.6

912

.88

12.8

8

Fore

cast

2017

14.0

813

.76

12.9

012

.60

11.9

011

.62

13.0

812

.78

2018

14.3

113

.69

13.0

712

.51

12.0

911

.57

13.2

812

.71

2019

14.5

713

.62

13.2

712

.40

12.3

011

.50

13.5

112

.63

2020

14.8

813

.55

13.5

112

.30

12.5

611

.44

13.7

912

.56

2021

15.2

013

.49

13.7

612

.20

12.8

211

.37

14.0

712

.48

2022

15.5

313

.42

14.0

112

.11

13.0

911

.31

14.3

612

.41

2023

15.8

813

.35

14.2

912

.01

13.3

811

.25

14.6

712

.33

2024

16.2

413

.28

14.5

611

.91

13.6

711

.19

14.9

812

.25

2025

16.6

013

.22

14.8

311

.81

13.9

811

.13

15.2

912

.17

2026

16.9

613

.15

15.1

111

.72

14.2

811

.07

15.6

012

.10

2027

17.3

113

.09

15.3

711

.62

14.5

811

.02

15.9

012

.02

2028

17.6

413

.02

15.6

211

.54

14.8

510

.96

16.1

911

.95

2029

17.9

612

.96

15.8

711

.45

15.1

310

.91

16.4

711

.88

2030

18.3

012

.89

16.1

311

.37

15.4

210

.86

16.7

611

.81

2031

18.6

412

.83

16.4

211

.29

15.7

210

.81

17.0

711

.74

2032

19.0

012

.76

16.6

711

.20

16.0

210

.76

17.3

711

.67

2033

19.3

612

.70

16.9

311

.10

16.3

410

.71

17.6

711

.59

2034

19.7

312

.63

17.1

911

.01

16.6

510

.66

17.9

911

.52

2035

20.1

112

.57

17.4

510

.91

16.9

810

.62

18.3

011

.44

2036

20.4

912

.51

17.7

210

.82

17.3

110

.57

18.6

211

.37

2037

20.8

812

.45

18.0

010

.73

17.6

410

.52

18.9

511

.30

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

1.4%

-0.2

%-0

.8%

-2.3

%-1

.1%

-2.7

%0.

1%-1

.5%

2016

-17

1.8%

-0.5

%1.

5%-0

.9%

1.8%

-0.6

%1.

6%-0

.8%

2016

-26

2.1%

-0.5

%1.

7%-0

.8%

2.0%

-0.5

%1.

9%-0

.6%

2016

-37

2.0%

-0.5

%1.

7%-0

.8%

2.0%

-0.5

%1.

9%-0

.6%

Sour

ce: F

orm

41, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

71

TABL

E 18

U.S.

MAI

NLIN

E AI

R CA

RRIE

R FO

RECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NS

JET

FUEL

PRI

CES

DOM

ESTI

CIN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

SYST

EM

FISC

AL Y

EAR

CURR

ENT

$

(Cen

ts)FY

201

6 $

(C

ents)

CURR

ENT

$

(Cen

ts)FY

201

6 $

(C

ents)

CURR

ENT

$

(Cen

ts)FY

201

6 $

(C

ents)

Histo

rical

2010

219.

1624

0.87

220.

1224

1.93

219.

4924

1.23

2011

289.

3230

9.89

288.

1030

8.58

288.

8730

9.41

2012

314.

5632

8.93

309.

5232

3.66

312.

6432

6.92

2013

308.

9131

7.82

299.

3930

8.03

305.

2431

4.05

2014

300.

7030

4.44

292.

5629

6.21

297.

6130

1.31

2015

207.

2920

9.21

211.

7721

3.73

208.

9621

0.90

2016

E14

6.17

146.

1714

7.01

147.

0114

6.47

146.

47

Fore

cast

2017

157.

2215

3.58

158.

1315

4.47

157.

5515

3.90

2018

179.

1117

1.39

180.

1417

2.38

179.

4717

1.75

2019

202.

6618

9.45

203.

8219

0.54

203.

0718

9.84

2020

227.

5920

7.29

228.

9020

8.48

228.

0620

7.71

2021

257.

8322

8.69

259.

3223

0.00

258.

3622

9.16

2022

284.

9124

6.13

286.

5524

7.54

285.

5024

6.63

2023

309.

6326

0.25

311.

4126

1.74

310.

2726

0.78

2024

338.

2227

6.67

340.

1727

8.26

338.

9227

7.24

2025

362.

4428

8.61

364.

5229

0.27

363.

1928

9.21

2026

377.

0529

2.43

379.

2129

4.11

377.

8229

3.03

2027

387.

2529

2.77

389.

4829

4.45

388.

0529

3.37

2028

396.

4429

2.70

398.

7229

4.38

397.

2629

3.30

2029

405.

3829

2.39

407.

7129

4.07

406.

2129

2.99

2030

414.

4629

2.01

416.

8429

3.69

415.

3129

2.61

2031

423.

8429

1.58

426.

2829

3.25

424.

7129

2.18

2032

433.

4929

1.17

435.

9829

2.84

434.

3829

1.77

2033

443.

3729

0.79

445.

9229

2.46

444.

2829

1.39

2034

453.

5329

0.41

456.

1429

2.08

454.

4629

1.01

2035

463.

9329

0.08

466.

5929

1.74

464.

8829

0.67

2036

474.

5528

9.73

477.

2829

1.40

475.

5329

0.33

2037

485.

4628

9.42

488.

2529

1.08

486.

4629

0.01

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

-6.5

%-8

.0%

-6.5

%-8

.0%

-6.5

%-8

.0%

2016

-17

7.6%

5.1%

7.6%

5.1%

7.6%

5.1%

2016

-26

9.9%

7.2%

9.9%

7.2%

9.9%

7.2%

2016

-37

5.9%

3.3%

5.9%

3.3%

5.9%

3.3%

Sour

ce: F

orm

41,

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n

72

TABL

E 19

U.S.

COM

MERC

IAL

AIR

CARR

IERS

AIR

CARG

O RE

VENU

E TO

N MI

LES1,

2, 3

ALL-

CARG

O CA

RRIE

R RT

MS

PA

SSEN

GER

CARR

IER

RTM

STO

TAL

RTM

SFI

SCAL

(Milli

ons)

(Milli

ons)

(Milli

ons)

YEAR

DOM

ESTI

CIN

T'L.

TOTA

LDO

MES

TIC

INT'L

.TO

TAL

DOM

ESTI

CIN

T'L.

TOTA

LHi

storic

al20

1011

,243

16,7

3327

,976

1,58

06,

332

7,91

212

,823

23,0

6535

,888

2011

10,6

0118

,980

29,5

811,

446

6,25

07,

696

12,0

4725

,230

37,2

7720

1210

,886

18,3

1029

,196

1,40

95,

952

7,36

112

,295

24,2

6236

,557

2013

10,9

9616

,741

27,7

371,

381

5,70

07,

080

12,3

7722

,441

34,8

1820

1411

,226

15,8

9027

,115

1,44

16,

614

8,05

412

,666

22,5

0335

,169

2015

11,6

3616

,008

27,6

431,

453

6,70

48,

157

13,0

8922

,712

35,8

0120

16E

11,8

5115

,687

27,5

381,

469

6,47

67,

944

13,3

2022

,163

35,4

83

Fore

cast

2017

12,0

5915

,954

28,0

131,

483

6,49

17,

974

13,5

4222

,444

35,9

8620

1812

,446

16,5

4428

,990

1,51

96,

633

8,15

213

,965

23,1

7737

,142

2019

12,8

1317

,149

29,9

621,

552

6,77

58,

326

14,3

6523

,924

38,2

8820

2013

,013

17,7

7630

,788

1,56

36,

919

8,48

314

,576

24,6

9539

,271

2021

13,2

6918

,556

31,8

251,

582

7,11

68,

698

14,8

5125

,672

40,5

23

2022

13,4

9919

,431

32,9

301,

597

7,34

08,

937

15,0

9626

,771

41,8

6720

2313

,702

20,3

3734

,038

1,60

87,

567

9,17

515

,309

27,9

0443

,213

2024

13,8

4221

,255

35,0

961,

611

7,78

99,

400

15,4

5329

,044

44,4

9720

2513

,943

22,1

6736

,110

1,61

08,

000

9,61

015

,553

30,1

6745

,720

2026

13,9

9223

,139

37,1

311,

603

8,22

29,

825

15,5

9531

,361

46,9

56

2027

14,0

8924

,209

38,2

981,

600

8,47

010

,071

15,6

8932

,679

48,3

6920

2814

,287

25,3

5739

,644

1,61

08,

734

10,3

4315

,897

34,0

9149

,988

2029

14,4

5226

,521

40,9

731,

615

8,99

110

,606

16,0

6635

,512

51,5

7920

3014

,620

27,7

3742

,357

1,62

09,

255

10,8

7516

,240

36,9

9253

,232

2031

14,8

0128

,988

43,7

891,

627

9,51

811

,145

16,4

2738

,507

54,9

34

2032

14,9

6630

,266

45,2

321,

631

9,77

811

,409

16,5

9740

,045

56,6

4220

3315

,114

31,5

9746

,711

1,63

310

,043

11,6

7616

,748

41,6

4058

,388

2034

15,3

2333

,025

48,3

471,

641

10,3

2511

,967

16,9

6443

,350

60,3

1420

3515

,521

34,5

0950

,030

1,64

810

,612

12,2

6017

,169

45,1

2162

,290

2036

15,7

1636

,044

51,7

601,

655

10,9

0012

,554

17,3

7146

,943

64,3

1420

3715

,890

37,6

3653

,526

1,65

911

,190

12,8

4917

,548

48,8

2666

,374

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

0.9%

-1.1

%-0

.3%

-1.2

%0.

4%0.

1%0.

6%-0

.7%

-0.2

%20

16-1

71.

8%1.

7%1.

7%1.

0%0.

2%0.

4%1.

7%1.

3%1.

4%20

16-2

61.

7%4.

0%3.

0%0.

9%2.

4%2.

1%1.

6%3.

5%2.

8%20

16-3

71.

4%4.

3%3.

2%0.

6%2.

6%2.

3%1.

3%3.

8%3.

0%So

urce

: For

m 4

1, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion

1 Inclu

des

freig

ht/e

xpre

ss a

nd m

ail r

even

ue to

n m

iles

on m

ainli

ne a

ir ca

rrier

s an

d re

gion

als/c

omm

uter

s.2 Do

mes

tic fi

gure

s fro

m 2

000

thro

ugh

2002

exc

lude

Airb

orne

Exp

ress

, Inc

.; in

tern

atio

nal f

igur

es fo

r 200

3 an

d be

yond

inclu

de n

ew

repo

rting

of c

ontra

ct s

ervic

e by

U.S

. car

riers

for f

orei

gn fl

ag c

arrie

rs.

3 Dom

estic

figu

res

from

200

3 an

d be

yond

inclu

de A

irbor

ne E

xpre

ss. I

nc.

73

TABL

E 20

U.S.

COM

MERC

IAL

AIR

CARR

IERS

INT

ERNA

TION

AL A

IR C

ARGO

REV

ENUE

TON

MIL

ES B

Y RE

GION

1, 2

ATLA

NTIC

LATI

N AM

ERIC

APA

CIFI

COT

HER

INTE

RNAT

IONA

LTO

TAL

FISC

AL Y

EAR

(MIL

LION

S)(M

ILLI

ONS)

(MIL

LION

S)(M

ILLI

ONS)

(MIL

LION

S)Hi

storic

al20

106,

865

1,99

18,

348

5,86

023

,065

2011

7,23

61,

832

9,10

57,

057

25,2

3020

127,

026

1,87

08,

569

6,79

724

,262

2013

6,66

21,

789

8,18

45,

806

22,4

4120

146,

887

1,74

08,

429

5,44

722

,503

2015

6,66

91,

639

9,02

15,

383

22,7

1220

16E

6,60

11,

566

8,76

15,

253

22,1

81

Fore

cast

2017

6,61

31,

569

9,03

35,

229

22,4

4420

186,

694

1,60

69,

590

5,28

723

,177

2019

6,79

91,

637

10,0

985,

389

23,9

2420

206,

927

1,65

910

,580

5,52

924

,695

2021

7,08

41,

680

11,1

935,

714

25,6

72

2022

7,26

11,

704

11,8

695,

937

26,7

7120

237,

448

1,72

112

,547

6,18

727

,904

2024

7,64

21,

732

13,2

056,

465

29,0

4420

257,

840

1,73

513

,829

6,76

330

,167

2026

8,04

61,

739

14,4

917,

085

31,3

61

2027

8,26

51,

750

15,2

317,

434

32,6

7920

288,

495

1,76

516

,028

7,80

434

,091

2029

8,73

01,

776

16,8

148,

193

35,5

1220

308,

974

1,78

917

,628

8,60

136

,992

2031

9,22

41,

802

18,4

549,

027

38,5

07

2032

9,48

01,

813

19,2

819,

470

40,0

4520

339,

743

1,82

520

,137

9,93

641

,640

2034

10,0

171,

841

21,0

6510

,427

43,3

5020

3510

,298

1,85

722

,021

10,9

4445

,121

2036

10,5

861,

872

22,9

9711

,489

46,9

4320

3710

,881

1,88

623

,998

12,0

6148

,826

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

-0.7

%-3

.9%

0.8%

-1.8

%-0

.6%

2016

-17

0.2%

0.2%

3.1%

-0.5

%1.

2%20

16-2

62.

0%1.

1%5.

2%3.

0%3.

5%20

16-3

72.

4%0.

9%4.

9%4.

0%3.

8%

Sour

ce: F

orm

41,

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n1 In

clude

s fre

ight

/exp

ress

and

mai

l rev

enue

ton

mile

s on

mai

nline

air

carri

ers

and

regi

onals

/com

mut

ers.

2 Figu

res

for 2

003

and

beyo

nd in

clude

new

repo

rting

of c

ontra

ct s

ervic

e by

U.S

. car

riers

for f

orei

gn fl

ag c

arrie

rs.

74

TABL

E 21

U.S.

MAI

NLIN

E AI

R CA

RRIE

RS

PASS

ENGE

R JE

T AI

RCRA

FT

LARG

E NA

RROW

BODY

LARG

E W

IDEB

ODY

LARG

ERE

GION

ALTO

TAL

CALE

NDAR

YEA

R2

ENGI

NE3

ENGI

NE4

ENGI

NETO

TAL

2 EN

GINE

3 EN

GINE

4 EN

GINE

TOTA

LJE

TSJE

TSJE

TSHi

storic

al20

103,

120

81

3,12

947

09

4352

23,

651

713,

722

2011

3,12

77

13,

135

471

741

519

3,65

476

3,73

020

123,

123

70

3,13

048

03

4052

33,

653

823,

735

2013

3,15

95

03,

164

482

040

522

3,68

693

3,77

920

143,

224

20

3,22

647

50

3751

23,

738

983,

836

2015

3,31

92

03,

321

492

031

523

3,84

499

3,94

320

16E

3,45

72

03,

459

490

022

512

3,97

197

4,06

8

Fore

cast

2017

3,38

92

03,

391

506

09

515

3,90

610

04,

006

2018

3,44

22

03,

444

523

00

523

3,96

790

4,05

720

193,

476

20

3,47

853

70

053

74,

015

804,

095

2020

3,51

02

03,

512

564

00

564

4,07

680

4,15

620

213,

525

20

3,52

758

60

058

64,

113

824,

195

2022

3,55

51

03,

556

604

00

604

4,16

085

4,24

520

233,

584

00

3,58

461

60

061

64,

200

884,

288

2024

3,61

40

03,

614

625

00

625

4,23

991

4,33

020

253,

650

00

3,65

063

50

063

54,

285

954,

380

2026

3,67

90

03,

679

647

00

647

4,32

699

4,42

5

2027

3,71

30

03,

713

661

00

661

4,37

410

24,

476

2028

3,74

10

03,

741

673

00

673

4,41

410

24,

516

2029

3,78

40

03,

784

684

00

684

4,46

810

24,

570

2030

3,85

10

03,

851

697

00

697

4,54

810

04,

648

2031

3,89

70

03,

897

719

00

719

4,61

610

04,

716

2032

3,95

00

03,

950

748

00

748

4,69

810

04,

798

2033

4,00

60

04,

006

773

00

773

4,77

910

04,

879

2034

4,07

40

04,

074

794

00

794

4,86

810

04,

968

2035

4,12

90

04,

129

819

00

819

4,94

810

05,

048

2036

4,17

60

04,

176

844

00

844

5,02

010

05,

120

2037

4,23

20

04,

232

867

00

867

5,09

910

05,

199

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

1.7%

-20.

6%N/

A1.

7%0.

7%N/

A-1

0.6%

-0.3

%1.

4%5.

3%1.

5%20

16-1

7-2

.0%

0.0%

N/A

-2.0

%3.

3%N/

A-5

9.1%

0.6%

-1.6

%3.

1%-1

.5%

2016

-26

0.6%

N/A

N/A

0.6%

2.8%

N/A

N/A

2.4%

0.9%

0.2%

0.8%

2016

-37

1.0%

N/A

N/A

1.0%

2.8%

N/A

N/A

2.5%

1.2%

0.1%

1.2%

75

TABL

E 22

U.S.

MAI

NLIN

E AI

R CA

RRIE

RS

CAR

GO J

ET A

IRCR

AFT

LARG

E NA

RROW

BODY

LARG

E W

IDEB

ODY

CALE

NDAR

YEA

R2

ENGI

NE3

ENGI

NE4

ENGI

NETO

TAL

2 EN

GINE

3 EN

GINE

4 EN

GINE

TOTA

LTO

TAL

Histo

rical

2010

153

104

3128

826

520

097

562

850

2011

176

8926

291

281

203

9658

087

120

1218

767

1226

629

218

893

573

839

2013

192

192

213

296

175

6453

574

820

1421

518

223

529

417

069

533

768

2015

228

222

252

309

156

7253

778

920

16E

235

192

256

328

149

7755

481

0

Fore

cast

2017

237

192

258

336

138

7855

281

020

1823

619

225

734

412

578

547

804

2019

239

192

260

362

112

7855

281

220

2024

219

226

337

810

079

557

820

2021

243

182

263

391

9782

570

833

2022

248

152

265

399

9785

581

846

2023

249

142

265

410

9786

593

858

2024

251

132

266

419

9885

602

868

2025

253

122

267

426

9885

609

876

2026

256

91

266

434

9886

618

884

2027

261

40

265

448

9488

630

895

2028

262

20

264

460

9088

638

902

2029

263

10

264

475

8691

652

916

2030

265

00

265

494

8092

666

931

2031

266

00

266

508

7395

676

942

2032

267

00

267

530

6797

694

961

2033

267

00

267

547

6110

070

897

520

3426

80

026

856

955

101

725

993

2035

269

00

269

587

4910

574

11,

010

2036

269

00

269

609

4310

775

91,

028

2037

269

00

269

627

3910

977

51,

044

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

7.4%

-24.

7%N/

A-1

.9%

3.6%

-4.8

%-3

.8%

-0.2

%-0

.8%

2016

-17

0.9%

0.0%

N/A

0.8%

2.4%

-7.4

%1.

3%-0

.4%

0.0%

2016

-26

0.9%

N/A

N/A

0.4%

2.8%

-4.1

%1.

1%1.

1%0.

9%20

16-3

70.

6%N/

AN/

A0.

2%3.

1%-6

.2%

1.7%

1.6%

1.2%

76

TABL

E 23

TOTA

L JE

T FU

EL A

ND A

VIAT

ION

GASO

LINE

FUE

L CO

NSUM

PTIO

NU.

S. C

IVIL

AVI

ATIO

N AI

RCRA

FT(M

illion

s of

Gall

ons)

JET

FUEL

AVIA

TION

GAS

OLIN

ETO

TAL

U.S.

AIR

CAR

RIER

S1, 2

GENE

RAL

AIR

GENE

RAL

FUEL

FISC

AL Y

EAR

DOM

ESTI

CIN

T'L.

TOTA

LAV

IATI

ONTO

TAL

CARR

IER

AVIA

TION

TOTA

LCO

NSUM

EDHi

storic

al20

1011

,973

6,29

018

,263

1,43

519

,698

222

122

319

,921

2011

12,0

926,

547

18,6

391,

456

20,0

952

216

218

20,3

1320

1212

,124

6,59

518

,720

1,43

520

,155

220

620

820

,363

2013

12,0

446,

418

18,4

611,

260

19,7

212

197

199

19,9

2020

1412

,167

6,34

818

,514

1,46

619

,981

221

021

220

,192

2015

12,6

826,

481

19,1

631,

383

20,5

452

196

198

20,7

4320

16E

13,3

376,

363

19,6

991,

471

21,1

702

208

210

21,3

80

Fore

cast

2017

13,7

156,

397

20,1

121,

541

21,6

532

203

205

21,8

5920

1813

,942

6,59

420

,536

1,59

422

,130

220

020

222

,332

2019

14,1

716,

789

20,9

601,

646

22,6

062

198

200

22,8

0620

2014

,242

6,97

621

,218

1,69

822

,916

219

719

923

,114

2021

14,2

927,

164

21,4

561,

744

23,2

002

195

197

23,3

97

2022

14,3

497,

353

21,7

021,

781

23,4

842

194

196

23,6

8020

2314

,411

7,53

721

,948

1,81

223

,760

219

319

523

,956

2024

14,4

867,

723

22,2

101,

841

24,0

512

193

195

24,2

4620

2514

,583

7,90

222

,485

1,86

924

,354

219

319

524

,549

2026

14,6

728,

082

22,7

541,

896

24,6

492

192

194

24,8

43

2027

14,7

778,

266

23,0

431,

922

24,9

652

191

193

25,1

5820

2814

,915

8,45

323

,368

1,95

225

,320

219

119

325

,513

2029

15,0

418,

637

23,6

781,

983

25,6

602

190

192

25,8

5220

3015

,157

8,82

223

,979

2,01

025

,990

219

019

226

,182

2031

15,2

869,

007

24,2

942,

038

26,3

322

190

192

26,5

24

2032

15,4

219,

192

24,6

132,

067

26,6

802

190

192

26,8

7220

3315

,555

9,37

724

,932

2,09

427

,026

219

019

227

,218

2034

15,7

029,

568

25,2

702,

120

27,3

902

189

191

27,5

8120

3515

,849

9,75

925

,608

2,14

727

,755

218

919

127

,946

2036

15,9

989,

951

25,9

492,

175

28,1

242

189

191

28,3

1620

3716

,149

10,1

4426

,293

2,20

428

,497

219

019

228

,689

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

1.8%

0.2%

1.3%

0.4%

1.2%

0.0%

-1.0

%-1

.0%

1.2%

2016

-17

2.8%

0.5%

2.1%

4.8%

2.3%

0.0%

-2.2

%-2

.1%

2.2%

2016

-26

1.0%

2.4%

1.5%

2.6%

1.5%

0.0%

-0.8

%-0

.8%

1.5%

2016

-37

0.9%

2.2%

1.4%

1.9%

1.4%

0.0%

-0.4

%-0

.4%

1.4%

Sour

ce:

Air c

arrie

r jet

fuel,

For

m 4

1, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion;

all o

thers

, FAA

APO

esti

mate

s.1 In

clude

s bo

th pa

ssen

ger (

main

line

and

regio

nal a

ir ca

rrier

) and

car

go c

arrie

rs.

2 Fore

cast

assu

mes

1.0

% a

nnua

l impr

ovem

ent i

n av

ailab

le se

at m

iles

per g

allon

for U

.S. C

omm

erci

al Ai

r Car

rier

77

TABL

E 24

U.S.

REG

IONA

L CA

RRIE

R FO

RECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NS

REVE

NUE

PER

AVER

AGE

SEAT

S PE

R AI

RCRA

FT M

ILE

AVER

AGE

PASS

ENGE

R TR

IP L

ENGT

HPA

SSEN

GER

MIL

E**

FISC

AL Y

EAR

DOM

ESTI

C (S

eats/

Mile

)IN

T'L

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

TOTA

L (S

eats/

Mile

)DO

MES

TIC

(Mile

s)IN

T'L.

(Mile

s)TO

TAL

(Mile

s)CU

RREN

T $

(C

ents)

2016

$

(Cen

ts)Hi

storic

al20

1056

.153

.256

.046

450

346

515

.74

17.3

020

1156

.452

.756

.346

753

146

815

.10

16.1

820

1256

.154

.856

.046

760

647

013

.16

13.7

720

1356

.166

.856

.446

964

147

211

.65

11.9

820

1457

.258

.857

.347

366

947

711

.37

11.5

220

1559

.962

.860

.047

569

648

010

.94

11.0

420

16E

61.3

68.8

61.5

481

721

487

11.3

211

.32

Fore

cast

2017

62.2

69.1

62.4

482

722

487

11.3

911

.12

2018

63.1

69.4

63.3

484

725

489

11.6

011

.10

2019

64.1

69.7

64.2

486

728

491

11.9

111

.13

2020

64.7

70.0

64.9

488

731

494

12.2

711

.17

2021

65.3

70.3

65.5

490

734

496

12.6

311

.20

2022

65.8

70.6

66.0

492

737

498

12.9

911

.22

2023

66.3

70.9

66.5

494

740

500

13.3

411

.22

2024

66.8

71.2

67.0

496

743

502

13.6

911

.20

2025

67.3

71.5

67.4

498

746

504

14.0

211

.17

2026

67.8

71.8

67.9

500

749

506

14.3

511

.13

2027

68.3

72.1

68.4

502

752

508

14.6

511

.08

2028

68.8

72.4

68.9

504

755

510

14.9

111

.01

2029

69.3

72.7

69.4

506

758

512

15.1

710

.94

2030

69.8

73.0

69.9

508

761

514

15.4

310

.87

2031

70.4

73.3

70.5

510

764

516

15.7

110

.81

2032

70.9

73.6

71.0

512

767

518

15.9

910

.74

2033

71.4

73.9

71.5

514

770

520

16.2

810

.67

2034

71.9

74.2

72.0

516

773

522

16.5

710

.61

2035

72.5

74.5

72.5

518

776

524

16.8

610

.54

2036

73.0

74.8

73.1

520

779

526

17.1

610

.48

2037

73.5

75.1

73.6

522

782

528

17.4

710

.41

Av

g An

nual

Grow

th20

10-1

61.

5%4.

4%1.

6%0.

6%6.

2%0.

8%-5

.3%

-6.8

%20

16-1

71.

5%0.

4%1.

5%0.

1%0.

1%0.

1%0.

5%-1

.8%

2016

-26

1.0%

0.4%

1.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

2.4%

-0.2

%20

16-3

70.

9%0.

4%0.

9%0.

4%0.

4%0.

4%2.

1%-0

.4%

Sour

ce:

Form

41

and

298C

, U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.

** R

epor

ting

carri

ers.

78

TABL

E 25

U.S.

REG

IONA

L CA

RRIE

RS

SCHE

DULE

D PA

SSEN

GER

TRAF

FIC

(In M

illion

s)

REV

ENUE

PAS

SENG

ERS

REVE

NUE

PASS

ENGE

R M

ILES

FISC

AL Y

EAR

DOM

ESTI

CIN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

TOTA

LDO

MES

TIC

INTE

RNAT

IONA

LTO

TAL

Histo

rical

2010

162

316

475

,030

1,34

776

,377

2011

162

216

475

,513

1,27

076

,783

2012

159

316

274

,330

1,85

676

,187

2013

155

315

872

,956

1,85

174

,807

2014

154

315

772

,953

1,92

674

,878

2015

153

315

672

,753

2,12

774

,880

2016

E15

24

155

72,9

712,

556

75,5

27

Fore

cast

2017

152

415

673

,482

2,57

476

,056

2018

157

416

075

,793

2,65

578

,448

2019

161

416

578

,128

2,73

780

,865

2020

163

416

779

,598

2,78

882

,386

2021

165

416

980

,953

2,83

683

,788

2022

167

417

182

,343

2,88

485

,227

2023

170

417

483

,768

2,93

486

,703

2024

172

417

685

,276

2,98

788

,263

2025

175

417

986

,918

3,04

589

,963

2026

177

418

188

,528

3,10

191

,629

2027

180

418

490

,253

3,16

193

,415

2028

183

418

792

,191

3,22

995

,420

2029

186

419

094

,079

3,29

597

,375

2030

189

419

395

,927

3,36

099

,287

2031

192

419

697

,912

3,43

010

1,34

2

2032

195

520

099

,955

3,50

110

3,45

620

3319

85

203

102,

022

3,57

410

5,59

620

3420

25

207

104,

205

3,65

010

7,85

520

3520

55

210

106,

413

3,72

811

0,14

120

3620

95

214

108,

668

3,80

711

2,47

420

3721

25

217

110,

974

3,88

711

4,86

1

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

-1.1

%4.

8%-1

.0%

-0.5

%11

.3%

-0.2

%20

16-1

70.

6%0.

6%0.

6%0.

7%0.

7%0.

7%20

16-2

61.

6%1.

6%1.

6%2.

0%2.

0%2.

0%20

16-3

71.

6%1.

6%1.

6%2.

0%2.

0%2.

0%So

urce

: Fo

rm 4

1 an

d 29

8C, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

79

TABL

E 26

U.S.

REG

IONA

L CA

RRIE

RS

SCHE

DULE

D PA

SSEN

GER

CAPA

CITY

, TRA

FFIC

, AND

LOA

D FA

CTOR

S

DOME

STIC

INTE

RNAT

IONA

LTO

TAL

YEAR

ASMs

(MIL

)RP

Ms

(M

IL)

% L

OAD

FACT

ORAS

Ms

(M

IL)

RPMs

(MIL

)%

LOA

D FA

CTOR

ASMs

(MIL

)RP

Ms

(M

IL)

% L

OAD

FACT

ORHi

storic

al20

1098

,461

75,0

3076

.21,

857

1,34

772

.510

0,31

876

,377

76.1

2011

99,0

7575

,513

76.2

1,81

81,

270

69.9

100,

893

76,7

8376

.120

1295

,748

74,3

3077

.62,

595

1,85

671

.598

,343

76,1

8777

.520

1393

,084

72,9

5678

.42,

994

1,85

161

.896

,078

74,8

0777

.920

1491

,169

72,9

5380

.02,

644

1,92

672

.893

,813

74,8

7879

.820

1590

,679

72,7

5380

.22,

832

2,12

775

.193

,511

74,8

8080

.120

16E

91,0

5772

,971

80.1

3,50

52,

556

72.9

94,5

6275

,527

79.9

Fore

cast

2017

91,6

0373

,482

80.2

3,52

62,

574

73.0

95,1

2976

,056

79.9

2018

94,1

3275

,793

80.5

3,62

32,

655

73.3

97,7

5678

,448

80.2

2019

96,7

2578

,128

80.8

3,72

32,

737

73.5

100,

448

80,8

6580

.520

2098

,277

79,5

9881

.03,

783

2,78

873

.710

2,06

082

,386

80.7

2021

99,7

1880

,953

81.2

3,83

82,

836

73.9

103,

556

83,7

8880

.9

2022

101,

228

82,3

4381

.33,

897

2,88

474

.010

5,12

485

,227

81.1

2023

102,

803

83,7

6881

.53,

957

2,93

474

.210

6,76

086

,703

81.2

2024

104,

496

85,2

7681

.64,

022

2,98

774

.310

8,51

988

,263

81.3

2025

106,

370

86,9

1881

.74,

095

3,04

574

.411

0,46

489

,963

81.4

2026

108,

217

88,5

2881

.84,

166

3,10

174

.411

2,38

291

,629

81.5

2027

110,

216

90,2

5381

.94,

243

3,16

174

.511

4,45

893

,415

81.6

2028

112,

482

92,1

9182

.04,

330

3,22

974

.611

6,81

295

,420

81.7

2029

114,

696

94,0

7982

.04,

415

3,29

574

.611

9,11

197

,375

81.8

2030

116,

867

95,9

2782

.14,

499

3,36

074

.712

1,36

599

,287

81.8

2031

119,

210

97,9

1282

.14,

589

3,43

074

.712

3,79

910

1,34

281

.9

2032

121,

628

99,9

5582

.24,

682

3,50

174

.812

6,31

010

3,45

681

.920

3312

4,08

010

2,02

282

.24,

776

3,57

474

.812

8,85

610

5,59

681

.920

3412

6,67

510

4,20

582

.34,

876

3,65

074

.913

1,55

110

7,85

582

.020

3512

9,30

410

6,41

382

.34,

977

3,72

874

.913

4,28

111

0,14

182

.020

3613

1,99

110

8,66

882

.35,

081

3,80

774

.913

7,07

211

2,47

482

.120

3713

4,74

311

0,97

482

.45,

187

3,88

774

.913

9,93

011

4,86

182

.1

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

-1.3

%-0

.5%

11.2

%11

.3%

0.1%

-1.0

%-0

.2%

2016

-17

0.6%

0.7%

0.6%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

0.7%

2016

-26

1.7%

2.0%

1.7%

2.0%

0.2%

1.7%

2.0%

2016

-37

1.9%

2.0%

1.9%

2.0%

0.1%

1.9%

2.0%

Sour

ce: F

orm

41 a

nd 2

98C,

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.

80

TABL

E 27

U.S.

REG

IONA

L CA

RRIE

RS

PASS

ENGE

R AI

RCRA

FT

REGI

ONAL

AIR

CRAF

TAS

OF

LESS

THA

N10

TO

1920

TO

3031

TO

40 S

EATS

OVER

40

SEAT

STO

TAL

FLEE

TJA

NUAR

Y 1

9 SE

ATS

SEAT

SSE

ATS

PROP

JET

TOTA

LPR

OPJE

T*TO

TAL

NON

JET

JET

TOTA

LHi

storic

al20

1044

092

8214

428

172

991,

728

1,82

785

71,

756

2,61

320

1144

794

6711

327

140

135

1,68

31,

818

857

1,71

02,

567

2012

394

9055

115

2313

810

41,

559

1,66

375

81,

582

2,34

020

1333

794

5237

037

511,

642

1,69

357

11,

642

2,21

320

1432

190

5632

032

561,

602

1,65

855

51,

602

2,15

720

1534

668

1332

032

571,

628

1,68

551

61,

628

2,14

420

16E

365

550

590

5940

1,63

71,

677

519

1,63

72,

156

Fore

cast

2017

352

530

570

5741

1,54

21,

583

503

1,54

22,

045

2018

339

510

550

5543

1,49

61,

539

488

1,49

61,

984

2019

327

490

530

5344

1,48

41,

528

473

1,48

41,

957

2020

311

470

500

5045

1,47

71,

522

453

1,47

71,

930

2021

298

450

480

4847

1,46

91,

516

438

1,46

91,

907

2022

285

430

460

4649

1,46

41,

513

423

1,46

41,

887

2023

272

410

440

4450

1,49

31,

543

407

1,49

31,

900

2024

259

390

420

4252

1,48

31,

535

392

1,48

31,

875

2025

247

370

400

4053

1,47

01,

523

377

1,47

01,

847

2026

237

360

380

3855

1,48

61,

541

366

1,48

61,

852

2027

224

340

360

3656

1,52

21,

578

350

1,52

21,

872

2028

211

320

340

3457

1,54

61,

603

334

1,54

61,

880

2029

199

300

320

3258

1,56

41,

622

319

1,56

41,

883

2030

186

280

300

3059

1,58

71,

646

303

1,58

71,

890

2031

173

260

280

2860

1,61

51,

675

287

1,61

51,

902

2032

160

240

260

2662

1,64

61,

708

272

1,64

61,

918

2033

147

220

240

2463

1,68

11,

744

256

1,68

11,

937

2034

134

200

220

2265

1,72

31,

788

241

1,72

31,

964

2035

122

180

200

2066

1,75

81,

824

226

1,75

81,

984

2036

112

170

180

1867

1,80

01,

867

214

1,80

02,

014

2037

9915

016

016

691,

828

1,89

719

91,

828

2,02

7

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

-3.1

%-8

.2%

-100

.0%

-13.

8%N/

A-1

6.3%

-14.

0%-0

.9%

-1.4

%-8

.0%

-1.2

%-3

.2%

2016

-17

-3.6

%-3

.6%

N/A

-3.4

%N/

A-3

.4%

2.5%

-5.8

%-5

.6%

-3.1

%-5

.8%

-5.1

%20

16-2

6-4

.2%

-4.1

%N/

A-4

.3%

N/A

-4.3

%3.

2%-1

.0%

-0.8

%-3

.4%

-1.0

%-1

.5%

2016

-37

-6.0

%-6

.0%

N/A

-6.0

%N/

A-6

.0%

2.6%

0.5%

0.6%

-4.5

%0.

5%-0

.3%

81

TABL

E 28

ACTI

VE G

ENER

AL A

VIAT

ION

AN

D A

IR T

AXI A

IRC

RAF

T

FIXE

D W

ING

TOTA

LPI

STON

TURB

INE

ROTO

RCRA

FTGE

NERA

L

AS O

F DE

C. 3

1SI

NGLE

EN

GINE

MUL

TI-

ENGI

NETO

TAL

TURB

O PR

OPTU

RBO

JET

TOTA

LPI

STON

TURB

INE

TOTA

LEX

PERI

- M

ENTA

L**

SPOR

T AI

RCRA

FT**

OTHE

RAV

IATI

ON

FLEE

TTO

TAL

PIST

ONS

TOTA

L TU

RBIN

ESHi

storic

al*20

1013

9,51

915

,900

155,

419

9,36

911

,484

20,8

533,

588

6,51

410

,102

24,7

846,

528

5,68

422

3,37

015

9,00

727

,367

2011

E13

6,89

515

,702

152,

597

9,52

311

,650

21,1

733,

411

6,67

110

,082

24,2

756,

645

5,68

122

0,45

315

6,00

827

,844

2012

128,

847

14,3

1314

3,16

010

,304

11,7

9322

,097

3,29

26,

763

10,0

5526

,715

2,00

15,

006

209,

034

146,

452

28,8

6020

1312

4,39

813

,257

137,

655

9,61

911

,637

21,2

563,

137

6,62

89,

765

24,9

182,

056

4,27

719

9,92

714

0,79

227

,884

2014

126,

036

13,1

4613

9,18

29,

777

12,3

6222

,139

3,15

46,

812

9,96

626

,191

2,23

14,

699

204,

408

142,

336

28,9

5120

1512

7,88

713

,254

141,

141

9,71

213

,440

23,1

523,

286

7,22

010

,506

27,9

222,

369

4,94

121

0,03

114

4,42

730

,372

2016

E12

6,82

013

,200

140,

020

9,46

013

,770

23,2

303,

335

7,36

510

,700

28,4

752,

530

4,95

020

9,90

514

3,35

530

,595

Fore

cast

2017

125,

760

13,1

5513

8,91

59,

285

14,1

0023

,385

3,38

07,

510

10,8

9028

,970

2,68

54,

955

209,

800

142,

295

30,8

9520

1812

4,73

013

,115

137,

845

9,18

014

,415

23,5

953,

425

7,65

011

,075

29,4

902,

835

4,96

020

9,80

014

1,27

031

,245

2019

123,

705

13,0

8013

6,78

59,

110

14,7

6023

,870

3,47

07,

785

11,2

5529

,910

3,00

04,

960

209,

780

140,

255

31,6

5520

2012

2,68

513

,045

135,

730

9,08

015

,115

24,1

953,

515

7,92

011

,435

30,2

403,

160

4,95

020

9,71

013

9,24

532

,115

2021

121,

645

13,0

0513

4,65

09,

075

15,4

8024

,555

3,56

08,

055

11,6

1530

,640

3,31

54,

950

209,

725

138,

210

32,6

10

2022

120,

600

12,9

6513

3,56

59,

115

15,8

4524

,960

3,60

58,

195

11,8

0030

,895

3,48

04,

955

209,

655

137,

170

33,1

5520

2311

9,54

012

,915

132,

455

9,18

516

,210

25,3

953,

650

8,33

511

,985

31,1

753,

640

4,95

520

9,60

513

6,10

533

,730

2024

118,

475

12,8

6513

1,34

09,

295

16,5

8525

,880

3,69

58,

480

12,1

7531

,510

3,79

54,

955

209,

655

135,

035

34,3

6020

2511

7,41

012

,820

130,

230

9,42

016

,965

26,3

853,

740

8,62

512

,365

31,8

353,

965

4,95

520

9,73

513

3,97

035

,010

2026

116,

335

12,7

6512

9,10

09,

570

17,3

4526

,915

3,78

58,

775

12,5

6032

,065

4,12

54,

970

209,

735

132,

885

35,6

90

2027

115,

245

12,7

0512

7,95

09,

755

17,7

4527

,500

3,83

58,

925

12,7

6032

,345

4,28

54,

965

209,

805

131,

785

36,4

2520

2811

4,14

512

,640

126,

785

9,96

018

,155

28,1

153,

885

9,07

512

,960

32,6

404,

445

4,97

520

9,92

013

0,67

037

,190

2029

113,

065

12,5

7512

5,64

010

,180

18,5

6528

,745

3,93

59,

230

13,1

6532

,970

4,61

04,

970

210,

100

129,

575

37,9

7520

3011

2,01

012

,505

124,

515

10,4

2018

,975

29,3

953,

985

9,39

013

,375

33,3

404,

770

4,98

521

0,38

012

8,50

038

,785

2031

110,

990

12,4

3012

3,42

010

,675

19,3

8530

,060

4,04

09,

555

13,5

9533

,595

4,93

04,

990

210,

590

127,

460

39,6

15

2032

110,

000

12,3

5512

2,35

510

,950

19,8

0530

,755

4,09

59,

725

13,8

2033

,900

5,09

54,

995

210,

920

126,

450

40,4

8020

3310

9,03

512

,280

121,

315

11,2

3020

,225

31,4

554,

150

9,90

514

,055

34,1

205,

255

5,00

521

1,20

512

5,46

541

,360

2034

108,

095

12,2

0012

0,29

511

,530

20,6

5532

,185

4,20

510

,090

14,2

9534

,480

5,41

54,

995

211,

665

124,

500

42,2

7520

3510

7,20

512

,125

119,

330

11,8

3521

,105

32,9

404,

265

10,2

8014

,545

34,7

205,

575

5,00

021

2,11

012

3,59

543

,220

2036

106,

350

12,0

4511

8,39

512

,150

21,5

7033

,720

4,32

510

,475

14,8

0035

,015

5,73

05,

010

212,

670

122,

720

44,1

9520

3710

5,55

011

,970

117,

520

12,5

8522

,040

34,6

254,

385

10,6

8015

,065

35,3

105,

885

5,01

521

3,42

012

1,90

545

,305

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

-1.6

%-3

.1%

-1.7

%0.

2%3.

1%1.

8%-1

.2%

2.1%

1.0%

2.3%

N/A

-2.3

%-1

.0%

-1.7

%1.

9%20

16-1

7-0

.8%

-0.3

%-0

.8%

-1.8

%2.

4%0.

7%1.

3%2.

0%1.

8%1.

7%6.

1%0.

1%-0

.1%

-0.7

%1.

0%20

16-2

6-0

.9%

-0.3

%-0

.8%

0.1%

2.3%

1.5%

1.3%

1.8%

1.6%

1.2%

5.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.8

%1.

6%20

16-3

7-0

.9%

-0.5

%-0

.8%

1.4%

2.3%

1.9%

1.3%

1.8%

1.6%

1.0%

4.1%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.8

%1.

9%* S

ourc

e: 2

001-

2010

, 201

2-20

14, F

AA G

ener

al Av

iatio

n an

d Ai

r Tax

i Act

ivity

(and

Avio

nics

) Sur

veys

.**

Expe

rimen

tal L

ight

-spo

rt ca

tego

ry th

at w

as p

revio

usly

show

n un

der S

port

Airc

raft

is m

oved

und

er E

xper

imen

tal A

ircra

ft ca

tego

ry, s

tarti

ng in

201

2.

Note

: An

activ

e ai

rcra

ft is

one

that

has

a c

urre

nt re

gistr

atio

n an

d wa

s flo

wn a

t leas

t one

hou

r dur

ing

the

calen

dar y

ear.

82

TAB

LE 2

9

ACTI

VE G

ENER

AL A

VIAT

ION

AN

D A

IR T

AXI H

OU

RS

FLO

WN

(In T

hous

ands

)

FIXE

D W

ING

TOTA

LPI

STO

NTU

RBIN

ERO

TORC

RAFT

GEN

ERAL

CAL

END

AR Y

EAR

SING

LE

ENG

INE

MUL

TI-

ENG

INE

TOTA

LTU

RBO

PR

OP

TURB

O

JET

TOTA

LPI

STO

NTU

RBIN

ETO

TAL

EXPE

RI-

MEN

TAL*

*SP

ORT

AI

RCRA

FT**

OTH

ERAV

IATI

ON

HOUR

STO

TAL

PIST

ONS

TOTA

L TU

RBIN

ESHi

stor

ical

*20

1012

,161

1,81

813

,979

2,32

53,

375

5,70

079

42,

611

3,40

51,

226

311

181

24,8

0214

,773

8,31

120

11E

11,8

441,

782

13,6

262,

463

3,40

75,

871

757

2,65

43,

411

1,20

327

818

124

,570

14,3

838,

524

2012

11,4

411,

766

13,2

062,

733

3,41

86,

151

731

2,72

33,

454

1,24

316

918

024

,403

13,9

378,

874

2013

10,7

061,

646

12,3

522,

587

3,48

86,

076

636

2,31

22,

949

1,19

117

313

522

,876

12,9

898,

388

2014

10,3

951,

573

11,9

672,

613

3,88

16,

494

818

2,42

43,

242

1,24

416

515

823

,271

12,7

868,

918

2015

11,2

171,

608

12,8

252,

538

3,83

76,

375

798

2,49

63,

294

1,29

519

116

224

,142

13,6

238,

871

2016

E11

,191

1,60

312

,794

2,53

94,

173

6,71

278

42,

565

3,35

01,

335

204

162

24,5

5813

,578

9,27

8

Fore

cast

2017

11,0

071,

596

12,6

042,

538

4,44

56,

983

777

2,63

63,

413

1,37

221

816

324

,753

13,3

819,

619

2018

10,7

601,

590

12,3

502,

539

4,65

57,

194

793

2,70

53,

497

1,41

123

216

324

,847

13,1

439,

899

2019

10,5

731,

584

12,1

572,

542

4,86

37,

405

809

2,77

33,

582

1,44

624

616

325

,000

12,9

6610

,178

2020

10,4

161,

577

11,9

922,

545

5,06

47,

609

828

2,84

33,

671

1,47

926

016

325

,174

12,8

2110

,451

2021

10,2

951,

570

11,8

652,

554

5,25

07,

804

848

2,90

53,

754

1,51

527

516

325

,375

12,7

1310

,709

2022

10,1

801,

566

11,7

462,

570

5,43

78,

007

869

2,97

13,

839

1,54

429

016

325

,589

12,6

1510

,978

2023

10,0

771,

562

11,6

382,

593

5,59

78,

190

886

3,03

73,

922

1,57

530

516

325

,794

12,5

2411

,227

2024

9,99

51,

556

11,5

512,

626

5,75

08,

376

902

3,10

54,

007

1,60

832

016

426

,025

12,4

5311

,481

2025

9,90

11,

550

11,4

512,

662

5,89

48,

556

919

3,17

44,

092

1,64

033

516

426

,239

12,3

6911

,730

2026

9,80

71,

547

11,3

542,

706

6,03

98,

745

934

3,23

54,

169

1,66

935

116

426

,451

12,2

8811

,980

2027

9,72

41,

543

11,2

672,

759

6,19

18,

949

950

3,29

74,

247

1,70

136

616

426

,694

12,2

1612

,247

2028

9,63

71,

542

11,1

792,

816

6,35

19,

167

966

3,35

94,

326

1,73

338

216

526

,951

12,1

4512

,526

2029

9,56

11,

543

11,1

042,

881

6,51

19,

392

983

3,42

44,

406

1,76

539

816

527

,230

12,0

8712

,815

2030

9,50

11,

543

11,0

442,

947

6,66

29,

609

999

3,48

84,

488

1,79

941

416

527

,519

12,0

4313

,097

2031

9,43

61,

545

10,9

813,

017

6,82

09,

838

1,01

63,

555

4,57

11,

825

430

165

27,8

1011

,997

13,3

92

2032

9,38

51,

549

10,9

343,

094

6,97

610

,070

1,03

33,

623

4,65

61,

857

446

166

28,1

2811

,966

13,6

9420

339,

339

1,55

310

,892

3,17

57,

125

10,3

001,

049

3,69

64,

745

1,88

346

316

628

,449

11,9

4113

,996

2034

9,27

71,

558

10,8

353,

258

7,27

010

,529

1,06

53,

770

4,83

51,

919

479

166

28,7

6311

,901

14,2

9820

359,

239

1,55

910

,799

3,34

97,

422

10,7

701,

083

3,84

64,

929

1,94

849

616

629

,107

11,8

8214

,616

2036

9,20

51,

563

10,7

683,

439

7,58

311

,022

1,10

13,

923

5,02

41,

980

512

167

29,4

7311

,868

14,9

4620

379,

187

1,56

610

,754

3,56

17,

736

11,2

961,

118

4,00

55,

124

2,00

752

916

729

,876

11,8

7215

,302

Avg

Annu

al G

rowt

h20

10-1

6-1

.4%

-2.1

%-1

.5%

1.5%

3.6%

2.8%

-0.2

%-0

.3%

-0.3

%1.

4%N/

A-1

.8%

-0.2

%-1

.4%

1.9%

2016

-17

-1.6

%-0

.4%

-1.5

%0.

0%6.

5%4.

0%-0

.8%

2.7%

1.9%

2.8%

6.8%

0.4%

0.8%

-1.4

%3.

7%20

16-2

6-1

.3%

-0.4

%-1

.2%

0.6%

3.8%

2.7%

1.8%

2.3%

2.2%

2.3%

5.5%

0.1%

0.7%

-1.0

%2.

6%20

16-3

7-0

.9%

-0.1

%-0

.8%

1.6%

3.0%

2.5%

1.7%

2.1%

2.0%

2.0%

4.6%

0.1%

0.9%

-0.6

%2.

4%*

Sour

ce:

2001

-201

0, 2

012-

2014

, FAA

Gen

eral

Avia

tion

and

Air T

axi A

ctivi

ty (a

nd A

vioni

cs) S

urve

ys.

**Ex

perim

enta

l Lig

ht-s

port

cate

gory

that

was

pre

vious

ly s

hown

und

er S

port

Airc

raft

is m

oved

und

er E

xper

imen

tal A

ircra

ft ca

tego

ry, s

tarti

ng in

201

2.

Note

: An

activ

e ai

rcra

ft is

one

that

has

a c

urre

nt re

gist

ratio

n an

d wa

s flo

wn a

t lea

st o

ne h

our d

urin

g th

e ca

lend

ar y

ear.

83

TABL

E 30

ACTI

VE P

ILO

TS B

Y T

YPE

OF

CER

TIFI

CAT

E

ROTO

R-TO

TAL

INST

RUM

ENT

AS O

F DE

C. 3

1ST

UDEN

TSRE

CREA

- TI

ONAL

SPOR

T PI

LOT

PRIV

ATE

COM

MER

CIAL

AIRL

INE

TRAN

SPOR

TCR

AFT

ONLY

GLID

ER

ONLY

TOTA

L PI

LOTS

LESS

AT

PILO

TSRA

TED

PI

LOTS

1

Histo

rical*

2010

119,

119

212

3,68

220

2,02

012

3,70

514

2,19

815

,377

21,2

7562

7,58

848

5,39

031

8,00

120

1111

8,65

722

74,

066

194,

441

120,

865

142,

511

15,2

2021

,141

617,

128

474,

617

314,

122

2012

119,

946

218

4,49

318

8,00

111

6,40

014

5,59

015

,126

20,8

0261

0,57

646

4,98

631

1,95

220

1312

0,28

523

84,

824

180,

214

108,

206

149,

824

15,1

1420

,381

599,

086

449,

262

307,

120

2014

120,

546

220

5,15

717

4,88

310

4,32

215

2,93

315

,511

19,9

2759

3,49

944

0,56

630

6,06

620

1512

2,72

919

05,

482

170,

718

101,

164

154,

730

15,5

6619

,460

590,

039

435,

309

304,

329

2016

128,

501

175

5,88

916

2,31

396

,081

157,

894

15,5

1817

,991

584,

362

426,

468

302,

572

Fore

cast

2017

130,

950

175

6,35

016

0,00

092

,500

159,

600

15,4

8017

,700

582,

755

423,

155

301,

400

2018

132,

150

175

6,70

015

8,05

089

,950

159,

900

15,5

0017

,500

579,

925

420,

025

300,

300

2019

132,

850

175

7,05

015

6,05

088

,150

160,

500

15,6

0017

,400

577,

775

417,

275

299,

900

2020

133,

400

175

7,45

015

4,45

086

,900

161,

100

15,7

0017

,300

576,

475

415,

375

300,

000

2021

133,

950

170

7,75

015

3,25

085

,950

161,

800

15,9

0017

,200

575,

970

414,

170

300,

300

2022

134,

450

170

8,05

015

2,20

085

,350

162,

600

16,1

0017

,100

576,

020

413,

420

301,

000

2023

134,

950

170

8,35

015

1,25

084

,900

163,

400

16,3

0017

,000

576,

320

412,

920

301,

700

2024

135,

400

170

8,65

015

0,35

084

,550

164,

100

16,6

0016

,950

576,

770

412,

670

302,

600

2025

135,

900

170

9,00

014

9,45

084

,350

164,

800

16,8

5016

,850

577,

370

412,

570

303,

600

2026

136,

400

165

9,35

014

8,60

084

,150

165,

600

17,1

5016

,750

578,

165

412,

565

304,

700

2027

136,

900

165

9,70

014

7,70

084

,050

166,

400

17,5

0016

,700

579,

115

412,

715

305,

800

2028

137,

350

165

10,0

5014

6,75

083

,950

167,

200

17,8

0016

,700

579,

965

412,

765

307,

000

2029

137,

850

165

10,4

5014

5,80

083

,900

168,

100

18,1

5016

,650

581,

065

412,

965

308,

300

2030

138,

350

165

10,8

5014

4,95

083

,850

168,

900

18,5

0016

,650

582,

215

413,

315

309,

500

2031

138,

800

165

11,2

5014

4,20

083

,850

169,

800

18,8

5016

,600

583,

515

413,

715

310,

800

2032

139,

250

165

11,6

5014

3,45

083

,850

170,

700

19,2

5016

,600

584,

915

414,

215

312,

100

2033

139,

650

165

12,0

0014

2,65

083

,800

171,

500

19,6

0016

,550

585,

915

414,

415

313,

400

2034

140,

100

165

12,4

0014

1,75

083

,800

172,

400

20,0

0016

,550

587,

165

414,

765

314,

700

2035

140,

500

165

12,8

0014

0,85

083

,800

173,

300

20,4

5016

,550

588,

415

415,

115

316,

100

2036

140,

850

165

13,2

0013

9,95

083

,800

174,

200

20,8

5016

,550

589,

565

415,

365

317,

600

2037

141,

200

165

13,6

0013

9,00

083

,800

175,

100

21,3

0016

,550

590,

715

415,

615

319,

100

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

1.3%

-3.1

%N/

A-3

.6%

-4.1

%1.

8%0.

2%-2

.8%

-1.2

%-2

.1%

-0.8

%20

16-1

71.

9%0.

0%7.

8%-1

.4%

-3.7

%1.

1%-0

.2%

-1.6

%-0

.3%

-0.8

%-0

.4%

2016

-26

0.6%

-0.6

%4.

7%-0

.9%

-1.3

%0.

5%1.

0%-0

.7%

-0.1

%-0

.3%

0.1%

2016

-37

0.4%

-0.3

%4.

1%-0

.7%

-0.6

%0.

5%1.

5%-0

.4%

0.1%

-0.1

%0.

3%* S

ourc

e: F

AA U

.S. C

ivil A

irmen

Sta

tistic

s.1 In

strum

ent r

ated

pilo

ts sh

ould

not b

e ad

ded

to o

ther

cat

egor

ies

in d

erivi

ng to

tal.

Note

: An

activ

e pi

lot is

a p

erso

n wi

th a

pilo

t cer

tific

ate

and

a va

lid m

edic

al ce

rtific

ate.

84

TAB

LE 3

1

GEN

ERAL

AVI

ATIO

N A

IRC

RAF

T F

UEL

CO

NSU

MPT

ION

(In M

illio

ns o

f Gal

lons

)

FIXE

D W

ING

PIST

ON

TURB

INE

ROTO

RCRA

FTEX

PERI

-TO

TAL

FUEL

CO

NSUM

ED

CAL

END

AR Y

EAR

SING

LE

ENG

INE

MUL

TI-

ENG

INE

TURB

O

PRO

PTU

RBO

JET

PIST

ON

TURB

INE

MEN

TAL*

*/

OTH

ERSP

ORT

**AV

GAS

JET

FUEL

TOTA

LHi

stor

ical

*20

1013

354

187

1,12

311

125

221

221

1,43

51,

656

2011

E13

053

195

1,12

510

136

211

216

1,45

61,

672

2012

126

5420

91,

077

1014

916

120

61,

435

1,64

120

1311

754

189

945

912

616

119

71,

260

1,45

720

1412

048

199

1,13

511

132

291

210

1,46

61,

676

2015

128

4019

11,

063

1012

815

119

61,

383

1,57

820

16E

128

4319

01,

150

1013

126

120

81,

471

1,67

9

Fore

cast

2017

126

4118

91,

219

1013

325

120

31,

541

1,74

420

1812

341

188

1,27

010

136

251

200

1,59

41,

794

2019

121

4118

71,

320

1013

925

219

81,

646

1,84

420

2011

940

187

1,36

811

142

252

197

1,69

81,

894

2021

117

4018

71,

411

1114

626

219

51,

744

1,93

9

2022

116

4018

71,

447

1114

726

219

41,

781

1,97

620

2311

539

188

1,47

511

150

262

193

1,81

22,

006

2024

114

3918

91,

500

1115

327

219

31,

841

2,03

520

2511

339

192

1,52

212

155

272

193

1,86

92,

062

2026

111

3919

41,

544

1215

828

219

21,

896

2,08

8

2027

110

3919

61,

567

1216

028

219

11,

922

2,11

320

2810

939

199

1,59

112

162

292

191

1,95

22,

143

2029

108

3820

41,

615

1216

429

219

01,

983

2,17

320

3010

738

207

1,63

613

167

303

190

2,01

02,

200

2031

106

3921

21,

658

1316

930

319

02,

038

2,22

8

2032

105

3921

61,

679

1317

230

319

02,

067

2,25

720

3310

439

221

1,69

713

175

313

190

2,09

42,

284

2034

103

3922

61,

715

1317

931

318

92,

120

2,30

920

3510

239

231

1,73

314

182

323

189

2,14

72,

336

2036

101

3923

61,

753

1418

632

318

92,

175

2,36

520

3710

139

243

1,77

014

190

323

190

2,20

42,

393

Avg

Annu

al G

rowt

h20

10-1

6-0

.7%

-3.7

%0.

2%0.

4%-1

.1%

0.8%

2.9%

N/A

-1.0

%0.

4%0.

2%20

16-1

7-1

.6%

-3.8

%-0

.5%

6.0%

-0.8

%1.

7%-2

.9%

5.7%

-2.2

%4.

8%3.

9%20

16-2

6-1

.4%

-1.0

%0.

2%3.

0%1.

7%1.

9%0.

9%5.

3%-0

.8%

2.6%

2.2%

2016

-37

-1.1

%-0

.4%

1.2%

2.1%

1.6%

1.8%

1.1%

4.5%

-0.4

%1.

9%1.

7%*S

ourc

e: F

AA A

PO E

stim

ates

.**

Expe

rimen

tal L

ight

-spo

rt ca

tego

ry th

at w

as p

revio

usly

sho

wn u

nder

Spo

rt Ai

rcra

ft is

mov

ed u

nder

Exp

erim

enta

l Airc

raft

cate

gory

, sta

rting

in 2

012.

No

te: D

etai

l may

not

add

to to

tal b

ecau

se o

f ind

epen

dent

roun

ding

.

85

TABL

E 3

2

TOTA

L C

OMBI

NED

AIR

CRAF

T OP

ERAT

IONS

AT

AIRP

ORTS

WIT

H F

AA A

ND C

ONTR

ACT

TRAF

FIC

CONT

ROL

SERV

ICE

(In T

hous

ands

)

AIR

AIR

TAXI

/GE

NERA

L AV

IATI

ONM

ILIT

ARY

NUM

BER

OF T

OWER

SFI

SCAL

YEA

RCA

RRIE

RCO

MM

UTER

ITIN

ERAN

TLO

CAL

TOTA

LIT

INER

ANT

LOCA

LTO

TAL

TOTA

LFA

ACO

NTRA

CTHi

storic

al20

1012

,658

9,41

014

,864

11,7

1626

,580

1,30

91,

298

2,60

751

,255

264

244

2011

12,8

669,

279

14,5

2811

,437

25,9

651,

319

1,31

12,

630

50,7

4026

424

820

1212

,873

8,99

414

,522

11,6

0826

,130

1,30

91,

270

2,57

950

,576

264

250

2013

12,7

768,

803

14,1

1711

,688

25,8

061,

275

1,27

62,

552

49,9

3726

425

220

1413

,015

8,44

013

,979

11,6

7525

,654

1,27

01,

245

2,51

549

,624

264

252

2015

13,7

557,

895

13,8

8711

,691

25,5

781,

292

1,20

32,

495

49,7

2226

425

220

16E

14,4

177,

580

13,9

0411

,632

25,5

361,

317

1,14

52,

462

49,9

9526

425

2

Fore

cast

2017

15,0

227,

381

13,9

3611

,664

25,6

001,

318

1,14

62,

464

50,4

6626

425

320

1815

,677

6,98

313

,972

11,7

0625

,678

1,31

81,

146

2,46

450

,802

264

253

2019

16,3

386,

530

14,0

0911

,747

25,7

561,

318

1,14

62,

464

51,0

8826

425

320

2016

,980

6,09

014

,046

11,7

8925

,835

1,31

81,

146

2,46

451

,369

264

253

2021

17,5

965,

687

14,0

8411

,831

25,9

151,

318

1,14

62,

464

51,6

6126

425

3

2022

18,0

935,

451

14,1

2111

,873

25,9

951,

318

1,14

62,

464

52,0

0226

425

320

2318

,450

5,43

314

,159

11,9

1626

,075

1,31

81,

146

2,46

452

,422

264

253

2024

18,7

575,

483

14,1

9711

,959

26,1

561,

318

1,14

62,

464

52,8

5926

425

320

2519

,067

5,53

714

,235

12,0

0326

,238

1,31

81,

146

2,46

453

,305

264

253

2026

19,4

005,

593

14,2

7312

,046

26,3

201,

318

1,14

62,

464

53,7

7526

425

3

2027

19,7

335,

649

14,3

1212

,090

26,4

021,

318

1,14

62,

464

54,2

4826

425

320

2820

,067

5,70

614

,351

12,1

3526

,486

1,31

81,

146

2,46

454

,723

264

253

2029

20,4

105,

764

14,3

9012

,179

26,5

691,

318

1,14

62,

464

55,2

0826

425

320

3020

,754

5,82

414

,430

12,2

2426

,654

1,31

81,

146

2,46

455

,695

264

253

2031

21,0

995,

883

14,4

6912

,270

26,7

391,

318

1,14

62,

464

56,1

8526

425

3

2032

21,4

455,

944

14,5

0912

,315

26,8

251,

318

1,14

62,

464

56,6

7726

425

320

3321

,794

6,00

514

,550

12,3

6126

,911

1,31

81,

146

2,46

457

,173

264

253

2034

22,1

536,

067

14,5

9012

,408

26,9

981,

318

1,14

62,

464

57,6

8126

425

320

3522

,526

6,12

914

,631

12,4

5427

,085

1,31

81,

146

2,46

458

,205

264

253

2036

22,9

026,

193

14,6

7212

,501

27,1

741,

318

1,14

62,

464

58,7

3226

425

320

3723

,272

6,25

714

,713

12,5

4927

,262

1,31

81,

146

2,46

459

,255

264

253

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

2.2%

-3.5

%-1

.1%

-0.1

%-0

.7%

0.1%

-2.1

%-0

.9%

-0.4

%20

16-1

74.

2%-2

.6%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.9%

2016

-26

3.0%

-3.0

%0.

3%0.

4%0.

3%0.

0%0.

0%0.

0%0.

7%20

16-3

72.

3%-0

.9%

0.3%

0.4%

0.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.8%

Sour

ce:

FAA

Air T

raffi

c Ac

tivity

.

86

TABL

E 33

TOTA

L TR

ACON

OPE

RATI

ONS

(In T

hous

ands

)

AIR

AIR

TAXI

/GE

NERA

LFI

SCAL

YEA

RCA

RRIE

RCO

MM

UTER

AVIA

TION

MIL

ITAR

YTO

TAL

Histo

rical

2010

13,1

749,

511

13,8

642,

438

38,9

8720

1113

,068

9,34

913

,503

2,37

538

,295

2012

13,0

458,

977

13,4

242,

332

37,7

7820

1312

,914

8,79

713

,048

2,22

536

,984

2014

13,1

868,

390

13,0

182,

229

36,8

2320

1513

,948

7,86

113

,076

2,28

637

,171

2016

E14

,640

7,67

213

,090

2,31

137

,713

Fore

cast

2017

15,2

507,

457

13,0

932,

311

38,1

1120

1815

,902

7,01

013

,137

2,31

138

,361

2019

16,5

586,

501

13,1

762,

311

38,5

4720

2017

,197

6,00

513

,215

2,31

138

,728

2021

17,8

095,

551

13,2

562,

311

38,9

27

2022

18,3

055,

283

13,3

022,

311

39,2

0220

2318

,664

5,25

813

,358

2,31

139

,591

2024

18,9

725,

309

13,4

172,

311

40,0

0920

2519

,284

5,36

413

,476

2,31

140

,436

2026

19,6

195,

422

13,5

382,

311

40,8

90

2027

19,9

545,

480

13,6

002,

311

41,3

4520

2820

,290

5,53

913

,662

2,31

141

,803

2029

20,6

365,

599

13,7

262,

311

42,2

7220

3020

,982

5,66

013

,789

2,31

142

,742

2031

21,3

295,

722

13,8

532,

311

43,2

15

2032

21,6

775,

785

13,9

172,

311

43,6

9020

3322

,028

5,84

713

,982

2,31

144

,169

2034

22,3

905,

911

14,0

482,

311

44,6

6020

3522

,765

5,97

714

,115

2,31

145

,168

2036

23,1

436,

043

14,1

832,

311

45,6

8020

3723

,516

6,10

914

,251

2,31

146

,186

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

1.8%

-3.5

%-1

.0%

-0.9

%-0

.6%

2016

-17

4.2%

-2.8

%0.

0%0.

0%1.

1%20

16-2

63.

0%-3

.4%

0.3%

0.0%

0.8%

2016

-37

2.3%

-1.1

%0.

4%0.

0%1.

0%So

urce

: FA

A Ai

r Tra

ffic

Activ

ity.

87

TABL

E 34

IFR

AIR

CRAF

T H

ANDL

ED

AT F

AA E

N RO

UTE

TRA

FFIC

CON

TROL

CEN

TERS

(In T

hous

ands

)

IFR

AIRC

RAFT

HAN

DLED

FISC

AL Y

EAR

AIR

CARR

IER

AIR

TAXI

/ CO

MM

UTER

GENE

RAL

AVIA

TION

MIL

ITAR

Y

TOT

ALHi

storic

al20

1022

,342

8,62

46,

550

2,98

240

,498

2011

23,4

329,

010

6,55

72,

228

41,2

2720

1223

,651

8,93

26,

472

1,86

040

,915

2013

23,2

058,

673

6,44

01,

676

39,9

9420

1424

,267

8,50

76,

741

1,83

041

,346

2015

25,2

707,

847

7,00

71,

795

41,9

1820

16E

26,3

187,

787

7,30

11,

826

43,2

31

Fore

cast

2017

27,2

737,

710

7,42

81,

826

44,2

3620

1827

,925

7,53

37,

470

1,82

644

,755

2019

28,5

257,

333

7,49

41,

826

45,1

7820

2029

,114

7,12

37,

510

1,82

645

,573

2021

29,6

826,

944

7,52

51,

826

45,9

77

2022

30,3

046,

772

7,54

91,

826

46,4

5120

2331

,023

6,61

67,

596

1,82

647

,061

2024

31,7

796,

458

7,65

01,

826

47,7

1420

2532

,514

6,34

37,

709

1,82

648

,392

2026

33,1

806,

329

7,77

71,

826

49,1

12

2027

33,8

576,

313

7,84

71,

826

49,8

4320

2834

,544

6,29

47,

918

1,82

650

,582

2029

35,2

486,

272

7,99

31,

826

51,3

3920

3035

,952

6,25

78,

068

1,82

652

,103

2031

36,6

196,

284

8,14

51,

826

52,8

73

2032

37,2

926,

310

8,22

21,

826

53,6

5020

3337

,973

6,33

68,

301

1,82

654

,436

2034

38,6

696,

361

8,38

21,

826

55,2

3920

3539

,373

6,39

88,

467

1,82

656

,064

2036

40,0

786,

441

8,55

31,

826

56,9

0020

3740

,784

6,48

48,

640

1,82

657

,734

Avg

Annu

al Gr

owth

2010

-16

2.8%

-1.7

%1.

8%-7

.8%

1.1%

2016

-17

3.6%

-1.0

%1.

7%0.

0%2.

3%20

16-2

62.

3%-2

.1%

0.6%

0.0%

1.3%

2016

-37

2.1%

-0.9

%0.

8%0.

0%1.

4%So

urce

: FA

A Ai

r Tra

ffic

Activ

ity

FAA Aerospace Forecast - Federal Aviation Administration · PDF file1 . Forecast Highlights...

Documents

Transcript of FAA Aerospace Forecast - Federal Aviation Administration · PDF file1 . Forecast Highlights...