F1. Sustainable food consumption and production in a resource-contrained world
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Transcript of F1. Sustainable food consumption and production in a resource-contrained world
Sustainable food consumption and production in a resource-constrained world
Erik Mathijs
INEVITABLE…?
“By 2050 the world’s population will reach 9.2 billion (…). Nearly all of
this population increase will occur in developing countries. (…) about 70
percent of the world’s population will be urban (…). Income levels will be
many multiples of what they are now. In order to feed this larger, more
urban and richer population, food production (net of food used for
biofuels) must increase by 70 percent.” (FAO)
…UNDERLYING WORLDVIEW?
INTRODUCTION
• Purpose: guide European agricultural research with respect to future orientations
• Final aim: building blocks to prepare transition towards a sustainable ag and food system
• Client: EU Standing Committee on Agricultural Research & European Commission (DG RTD, DG Agri)
• Timing: June 2010 – February 2011• Execution: 8 external experts, supported by SCAR working group and
stakeholder consultation/validation through workshop
METHOD
• Meta-study: scan foresight activities and academic papers (2009 / 2010)
• Framework: transition theory
• Emphasis: resource scarcity
• Discourse analysis: make implicit underlying worldview
RESULTS
1. Sense of urgency due to resource scarcities accelerates (due to interactions)
2. Way we look at problems and solutions differs fundamentally between productivity-oriented (“more with less”) and sufficiency-oriented thinking (“less is more”)
3. Not productivity or sufficiency, but productivity and sufficiency – all approaches are necessary, no silver bullet
Source: Rockstrom et al.
TRANSITION PATHWAYS
• Consumer driven• Technology driven (biotech,
GMO, nano, ICT, agro-ecologyg)
• Organizational innovation driven (CSR, social innovation, global governance)
Narratives of food productionand consumption
Biophysical scarcities
Socio-economic and political context
Transition pathways
Long-term vision - Research needs
Research policy implications
IMPACT AND CALL TO ACTION
• Take into account often implicit underlying values and worldviews and stimulate diversity
• Consider multiple pathways that may contradict or reinforce each other• Help stakeholders engage into frame-breaking thinking, not only in future
scenarios, but also with respect to current system
Cattle Feedlot. NDSU Ag Communication February 11, 2011
CSA farm in Leuven, Belgium