1st EC-JRC Urbanization Workshop

Modelling urbanization processes

in Europe

Filipe Batista and LUISA team

Ispra, 27th May 2015

EC-JRC-IES, Sustainability Assessment Unit http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/luisa/

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Cities…

� Environmental and social issues: soil imperviousness,

pollution, local climate change, congestion, crime, spread

of diseases… But…

� Socio-economic and environmental advantages due

to scaling: economies of scale (more efficient use of

resources), concentration of critical mass and economic

opportunities, productivity, innovation, economic growth…

Super linear growth?

Bettencourt et al. (2007) PNASOECD (2014)

Regions with big cities experience more economic growth

Higher wages and more

innovation in bigger cities

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Cities in Europe…

� Have expanded greatly in the last two centuries due to

economic growth and urbanization.

� But what is the future of cities in Europe in a period of

demographic decline? Which cities will win and which will

loose?

� Either way, the future of Europe is tied to the future of its

cities…

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� What is LUISA

� How LUISA works

� Baseline trajectory of future urbanization

� On-going and future work

Contents

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� What is LUISA

� How LUISA works

� Baseline trajectory of future urbanization

� On-going and future work

Contents

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What is LUISA? (1)

� EC-based modeling platform: JRC (development and

application) ENV, REGIO, CLIMA (funders , costumers);

� Conceived to contribute to Territorial Impact Assessment of EU

policies in an integrated manner;

� More than one stand-alone model. It is a platform of inter-linked

data, processes, models and indicators;

� Linked to several upstream models to capture sector trends

and multi-policy scenarios;

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What is LUISA? (2)

� A core, state-of-the-art, land use model simulates future land use

changes given a set of scenario specifications, and resolving

competition for land by the different sectors;

� Beyond conventional land use/cover modeling. From discrete land

use allocation to activity-based modeling:

� Endogenous dynamic allocation of population (implemented),

activities, and services (foreseen);

� Endogenous modelling of effects of infrastructure improvements

and other spatial planning policies.

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Macro and exogenous dynamicsDemography, Economy

(define demand for land)

Local conditionsGeography, neighborhood effects, accessibility, soil

characteristics.

(define local suitabilities)

Land

allocation

Policies with

territorial impact

Current Land Uses;

Conversion rules,

transition costs, etc..

Eg. Zoning,

spatial planning

regulations

Eg. Policies

influencing macro

dynamics (usually

through scenarios)

What is LUISA? (3)

LUISA merges top-down and bottom-up dynamics:

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What is LUISA? (4)

Main technical characteristics

� Originally based on the CLUE model family (EUClueScanner)

� Supported by the GeoDMS Data Model Server (GeoDMS)

� Spatial extent: EU-28

� Spatial resolution: 100 meters

� Thematic resolution: 8 fully simulated land use classes (+ agricultural breakdown +

‘abandoned’ land uses)

� Temporal resolution / time span: yearly / up to 2050

� Base-map: CORINE Land Cover 2006 ‘refined’

� Primary outputs: Maps of land use, population, and accessibility

� Secondary outputs: Spatially explicit thematic indicators

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Main land use categories in LUISA

Urban areas Industrial/commercial areas

Forested areasAgricultural areas

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� What is LUISA

� How LUISA works

� Baseline trajectory of future urbanization

� On-going and future work

Contents

Land requirements from different sectors are

estimated given exogenous macro-drivers:

Economy and Demography.

Computes land function indicators.

Resolves the spatial arrangement of land uses at

fine pixel scale, taking into consideration

competition for land, land suitability, and

neighborhood.

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Demand

module

Allocation

module

Indicator

module

Accessibility

Nr. of people

3 tier structure

151 June 2015

100 m pixels

Biophysical & economic suitability

Regions (NUTS2)

Regional land demands

Allow rules + discrete allocationNeighbourhood

dependencies

How does LUISA work?

161 June 2015

Allow rules + discrete allocation

AccessibilityNr of people

100 m

Land-use pattern

Outputs from LUISA

at pixel level

171 June 2015

AccessibilityNr of people

100 m

Land-use pattern

Indicators obtained through combination and/or

aggregation

}50+ indicators

- Land use- Resources- Productivity- Air quality- Ecosystems- Hydrology- Accessibility

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� The expected land surface required to support future

societal and economic activities;

� Defined for the ‘active land use classes’ (urban, industry-

services, agriculture, forest);

� Determined within LUISA exogenously;

� The output of LUISA is very sensitive to the ‘demand’ definition.

Land demand

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Population

projection

Nr.

households

Urban land

demand

Parameter:Average

household size

*

*

*

* Subject to scenario / policy option specification

Parameter:Urban

density

Other drivers of urban land (e.g. tourism)

Demand for urban land use

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1. Continuous allocation of residents, given:

� Net regional population = (Pt1 – Pt0) + (0.1 * Pt0), given

population projections;

� Location suitability factors: Potential accessibility, proximity

to road, slope, land uses (based on spatial econometric

calibration);

� Housing supply -> penalizes/incites population changes in

case of shortage/surplus.

Land allocation

211 June 2015

LUISA Population potentialsRed: highestYellow: mediumGreen: lowest

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2. Discrete allocation of land uses:

� Based on multinomial logistic regression – addressing

competition for land;

� The highest bidder takes land (i.e. the land use type with

the highest overall suitability level at each location).

� Overall suitability (for each land use in each location) is a

combination of bio-physical suitability, allow rules, transition

costs, neighborhood and land demand.

Land allocation

100 m

Outputs of LUISA

241 June 2015

Outputs of LUISA

Population Urban sprawl

Potential accessibility

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� What is LUISA

� How LUISA works

� Baseline trajectory of future urbanization

� On-going and future work

Contents

A European baseline scenario

A baseline scenario…

� assumes the most likely socio-economic trends (often business-as-

usual approach) and the expected effect of established policies;

� serves as benchmark for comparison of policy alternatives, allowing

their ex-ante evaluation.

The “Energy-Climate Reference Scenario 2013” is used as BASELINE:

� Known EU level policies (Cohesion policy, biodiversity and habitat

protection, renewables directive…);

� Most likely future regional demands;

� Business as usual preferences.Dependence on several

upstream sector models

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On aggregate… further losses of land use intensity

Results

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1990-2010

2010-2050

But… large spectrum of behaviors among NUTS3 regions…

Results

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LAND TAKE / YEAR LAND TAKE / CAPITA / YEAR BUILT-UP PER MN INHABITANTS

Focus on Large Urban Zones…

Population density - 2010

Population density - 2050

Expansion

2010 2050

Stagnation / de-growth

2010 2050

Concentration

2010 20502050

Absolute changes in population 2010-2050

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Density profiles in Functional Urban Areas

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RC= Vd x Conc x GA

Pollutant concentration maps (current & future) Pollutant removal capacity

Focus on environmental/quality of life indicators (e.g. Air Quality)

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Urban population exposed to pollutant concentration exceeding the daily

limit value for more than 35 days in a year.

Focus on environmental/quality of life indicators (e.g. Air Quality)

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� What is LUISA

� How LUISA works

� Baseline trajectory of future urbanization

� On-going and future work

Contents

� Urban efficiency indicators (land use, and energy/transport efficiency);

� Scenarios of sustainable urban development;

� Up-date of the reference Scenario (include new macro-assumptions);

� Pan-European coverage (2015-16 – gradual extension);

� Update of base year – 2012;

On-going and planned activities / improvements

� More economic rationale in LUISA:

� spatial allocation with net present value considerations

� modeling of services and employment distribution

� economic-demographic feedbacks (population following jobs)

� Validation activities and cross model comparison exercises.

On-going and planned activities / improvements

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� Lavalle C, et al. 2011. A High Resolution Land use/cover Modelling Framework for

Europe: introducing the EU-ClueScanner100 model. In Computational Science and

Its Applications - ICCSA 2011, Part I, Lecture Notes in Computer Science vol. 6782,

edited by B. Murgante et al. Apduhan. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

� Batista e Silva F, et al. 2014. Estimating demand for industrial and commercial

land use given economic forecasts. PLOS ONE 9 (3):e91991.

� Jacobs-Crisioni C, et al. 2014. Accessibility and territorial cohesion in a case of

transport infrastructure improvements with endogenous population

distributions. Forthcoming.

� Lavalle C, et al. et al. Land use and scenario modelling for Integrated

Sustainability Assessment. Forthcoming.

� More at: http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/luisa/

Some references

Thank you