F A C T O R - afta-dfw.com Janus Factor - Gary Anderson.pdfJesse Livermore, Reminiscencs of a Stock...
Transcript of F A C T O R - afta-dfw.com Janus Factor - Gary Anderson.pdfJesse Livermore, Reminiscencs of a Stock...
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F A C T O R
J A N U S
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Jan
us
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“In some seasons trend following is
good; in others, reversing is good.”
Victor Niederhoffer, The Education of a Speculator
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1. Feedback systems
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1. Feedback systems
2. A binary method for
icalculating relative strength
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1. Feedback systems
2. A binary method for
icalculating relative strength
3. Key indicators
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1. Feedback systems
2. A binary method for
icalculating relative strength
3. Key indicators
4. A long strategy
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Feedback Systems
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Positive feedback creates
a trend.
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Negative feedback counters
the trend.
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The defensive qualities of a
stock/group are most severely
tested during periods of market
weakness, when the risk of loss
is most acute.
DEFENSE
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Since the risk of lost opportunity
is greatest as the market rises,
the offensive qualities of a
stock/group are best measured
as the market advances.
OFFENSE
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Relative
Strength
Relative
Weakness
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How Feedback
Generates Systematic
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Positive Feedback
Traders buy strength
and/or sell weakness.
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Expanding Universe
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Positive Feedback as the
Market Advances
Strongest stocks lead the way
higher.
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June 1999
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March 2000
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Positive Feedback as the
Market Declines
Weakest stocks lead the way
lower.
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December 2001
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May 2002
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Negative Feedback
Traders sell strength
and/or buy weakness.
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Contracting Universe
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December 2002
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“The prime mover in
a financial market is
not value or price,
but price differences;
not averaging, but
arbitraging.”
Benoit Mandelbrot, The (Mis)
Behavior of Markets
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Structure, Entropy
and
Traders’ Confidence
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1. Ace of Spades
2. King of Spades
3. Queen of Spades
4. Jack of Spades
5. Ten of Spades
6. Nine of Spades
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1. King of Spades
2. Three of Diamonds
3. Jack of Diamonds
4. Ten of Hearts
5. Two of Clubs
6. Seven of Hearts
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Positive Feedback structures
the market by increasing the
relative strength difference
between winners and losers.
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The emergence of structure
is the trend.
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Negative Feedback collapses
structures built up during
periods of positive feedback.
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The collapse of RS structure
“re-shuffles” the market.
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En tro py
The tendency for all matter and
energy in the universe to evolve
toward a state of inert uniformity;
deterioration of [the structure of]
a system or society.
Webster’s
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Two distinct market
environments
driven by two opposed
trading paradigms.
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“In some seasons
trend following is good.”
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“Trading strategies that buy
past winners and sell past
losers realized significant
abnormal returns over the
1965 to 1989 period.”
Jegadeesh and Titiman, “Returns to Buying
Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for
Stock Market Efficiency”, 1993
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“The historically strongest stocks
produced the best future results
and the historically weakest
stocks produced the worst.”
Robert Levy, The Relative Strength Concept of
Common Stock Price Forecasting, 1968.
(Study based on data from October 1960 to October 1965)
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“In others, reversing is good.”
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Harold M. Gartley, who had
pioneered relative strength to
study stock groups, abandoned
its use in the 1930s and 1940s
because it did not work.
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“In a narrow market, when
prices are not getting anywhere
to speak of but move within a
narrow range, there is no sense
in trying to anticipate what the
next big movement is going to
be, up or down. . . “
Jesse Livermore, Reminiscencs of a Stock
Operator (Lefevre)
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“Those were the lean years, 1911-
1914. The market flattened out.
Things drifted from bad to worse.
I not only lost all I had but got into
debt again. There was no money
to be made.”
Jesse Livermore, Reminiscencs of a Stock Operator
(Lefevre)
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20
40
60
80
100
120
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Daily
Dow Industrial Average
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Key Indicators
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The Relative Strength
Spread
Is feedback positive or negative?
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The Spread
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Rising Spread
- result of positive feedback
rrrrrrrrrrr(momentum)
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Falling Spread
- result of negative feedback
rrrrrrrrrrr(entropy)
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In what direction is momentum
(positive feedback) moving the
market?
Direction of Momentum
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Direction of Momentum
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Direction of Momentum
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Direction of Entropy
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The Janus Strategy The Janus Strategy The Janus Strategy
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The Janus Strategy The Janus Strategy
Morningstar
Sub-Industry Groups
- Stocks in each group
eequally balanced
- No survival bias
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The Janus Strategy The Janus Strategy
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The Janus Strategy The Janus Strategy
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The Janus Strategy The Janus Strategy
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The Janus Strategy The Janus Strategy
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The Janus Strategy The Janus Strategy
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The Janus Strategy The Janus Strategy
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The Janus Strategy The Janus Strategy December 1990 – January 2014
Long – 71%
Cash – 29%
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95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Direction of Momentum
Adaptive MA
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95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Performance Spread
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95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Performance of RM
Leaders versus SP-500
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“It is not the strongest of
the species that survives,
nor the most intelligent,
but the one most
responsive to change.”
Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species