Eye on the EconomyBuilders Look Forward

September 19, 2014

eyeonhousing.org

Housing Starts2

• Housing Starts fell in August

• 14.4% below the July pace

• Multifamily starts down 32%

• Single family starts down 2.4%

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Housing Starts3

• HMI increased four points

• Confidence up in all four regions

• Highest reading of post-recession period

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Residential Construction Spending

4

• July: Three-month moving average

• Single family spending up 9.9%

• Multifamily spending up 38.4%

• Annual pace of $358 billion

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Consumer Price Index5

• Conditions still favor home buying

• Inflation adjusted real rents have increased 1.4%

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Consumer Confidence6

• Expanding consumer credit

• Expanding purchases of durable goods

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• Mortgage interest rates remains low

• Federal funds rate expected to increase in 2015

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Labor Market Conditions7

• Employment growth of 142,000 in August

• Unemployment fell to 6.1%

• Driven by fewer people in the labor force

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Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey8

• Unfilled construction jobs highest since 2008

• June count revised up to 152,000

• Highest since May 2008

• July estimate declined to 140,000

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Producer Price Index9

• Building material prices continue to ease

• Inflation in prices received by producers was flat in August

• Softwood lumber rose 2.4%

• OSB declined 4.9%

• Gypsum declined 0.9%

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Analysis News10

• Characteristics of American Subdivisions

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• Most common material used for home exteriors

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• The Great Delay – Student Loans and their affect on home buying

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