Extratropical Report: Simulating 2007 and 2005 storms in Massachusetts
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Extratropical Report: Simulating 2007 and 2005 storms in Massachusetts
Don Slinn, Jeff Ren, Go FujitaUniv of Florida
Coastal Engineering
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MDL’s ExtratropicalStorm Surge
An Introduction
Anne KramerScientific ProgrammerNOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA
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ETSS background• ETSS model is based on SLOSH, but
modified to use GFS winds on 1° grid
• Runs 4x daily in NCEP operations
• Basins updated at MDL’s discretion; updates:– Alaska, Bering Sea: 1996– Alaska, Arctic: 1998– Gulf of Alaska: 2008– East Coast: 1999, 2008– Gulf of Mexico: 1999, 2011– West Coast: 1998, 2011
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ETSS background• Resolution varies
– Gulf of Mexico ~ 4km– East Coast ~ 9.4km– Alaska ~ 6.7km– West Coast ~ 6.5km
• Each run has a 2 day initialization and a 4 day forecast period, for a total of 6 days
• Results posted to the web – http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ (text
& hydrographs)– http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/ST.
expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/ (gridded data)
– http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_GOM_EAST/SURGE_GOM_EAST_96_HR.shtml (gridded)
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MDL’s Participation in SURA Inundation Testbed Effort
• Completed– Uploaded to SURA server:• archived forecast graphs and text files for north East
Coast stations for the 3 periods of interest
• Projected– Reproduce gridded forecasts using archived GFS
wind data– Potentially create gridded hindcasts using
reanalysis GDAS winds
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Northeast Coast Basin: PV2
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Another 4 days of the 2007 storm when winds and waves were smaller
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2005 Storm 100 hours
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Summary• Simulated 2005 and 2007 storms for 4 or 8 days• Waves heights are reasonable• In the 2007 storm, 30% of the surge is from waves• Wind fields (no pressure fields) in different
formats implemented into SLOSH (no tides)• Waves on Nested grids• Operational Extratropical Slosh on coarser grid
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