Extended range prediction during 2013 season Using Ensemble Prediction System based in CFSv2 And
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Extended range prediction during 2013 season Using Ensemble Prediction System based in CFSv2 And GFSv2 forced with Bias corrected CFSv2 forecasted SST Extended Range Prediction Group Indian Institute of Tropical Meteoro
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Extended range prediction during 2013 season Using Ensemble Prediction System based in CFSv2 And GFSv2 forced with Bias corrected CFSv2 forecasted SST. Extended Range Prediction Group Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Strategy:. Ensemble Prediction using CFS/GFSv2 (T126). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Extended range prediction during 2013 season Using Ensemble Prediction System based in CFSv2 And
Extended range prediction during 2013 season
Using Ensemble Prediction System based in CFSv2
AndGFSv2 forced with Bias corrected CFSv2 forecasted SST
Extended Range Prediction GroupIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Ensemble Prediction using CFS/GFSv2 (T126)
• Ocean and Atmospheric Initial conditions (IC) are obtained from NCEP.
• Technique was developed to perturb ICs to generate 11 members. (Abhilash et al., 2013)
• Model has been integrated for 45 days for each 11 ICs at five day intervals starting from 1st May (Eg: 01May, 06May, 11May, 16May, 21May, 26May,31May, 05Jun........etc).Climatology has been calculated from 10-year hindcast climatology.
• Bias correction in daily forecasted SST from CFSv2 for each lead time has been done by removing the daily mean bias for corresponding lead time (model climatology-observed climatology) from forecasted daily SST. (Sahai et al., 2013; Abhilash et al., 2013)
Strategy:
Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPaCFS forecast based on IC=21 May 2013
Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPabias corrected CFS forecasted SST forced GFS Forecast based on IC=21 May 2013
Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 200hPaCFS forecast based on IC=21 May 2013
Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 200hPabias corrected CFS forecasted SST forced GFS Forecast based on IC=21 May 2013
CFS forecast based on IC=21 May 2013
Actual Anomaly
GFS forecast based on IC=21 May 2013
Actual Anomaly
CFS-GFS Forecast Over Homogenous RegionsMZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI
CFS GFS
MZI
P1
P2
CFS GFS
MZI
P3
P4
CFS GFS
CEI
P1
P2
CFS GFS
CEI
P3
P4
CFS GFS
NEI
P1
P2
CFS GFS
NEI
P3
P4
CFS GFS
NWI
P1
P2
CFS GFS
NWI
P3
P4
CFS GFS
SPI
P1
P2
SPI
CFS GFS
P3
P4
How MISO is computed: (ref: Suhas etal., 2012)
Extended EOF analysis is carried out similar to Wheeler and Hendon 2004 using standardized rainfall anomalies up to lag -15 days, averaged between 60-95E for the latitudes -12 to 30. The rainfall anomalies for the lag days are appended side by side to create the extended data matrix.
The EOF analysis is carried out using IMD-TRMM merged data from 1998-2011. The real time data for 2013 is projected onto the EOFs created from the 14 years of past data.
The amplitude of EOF1 and EOF2 (PC1 and PC2 ) are plotted in a PC1/PC2phase space similar to Wheeler Hendon 2004 to get an idea of the evolutionof ISO and its strength.
Composite Rainfall anomalies in different phases
Phase1:Peninsular India
Phase2:Central India
Phase3:Central India
Phase4:North India
Phase5:Foothills
Phase6:South Indian Ocean
Phase7:Indian Ocean
Phase8:Southern tip
CFS GFS(bias corrected)
MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days
CFS GFS(bias corrected)
MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days
