Exports of steel - OECD · 2016-03-29 · Exports Imports 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 9 9...
Transcript of Exports of steel - OECD · 2016-03-29 · Exports Imports 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 9 9...
12-May-2011
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Steel trade and policy
developments
DSTI/SU/SC(2011)3
70th Steel Committee Meeting
Paris
12-13 May 2011
Exports of steel
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2000
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10000
China
1000
1500
2000
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4000
4500
Japan
1000
1500
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3500
Russia
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1500
2000
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3000
3500
Ukraine
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2600
2800
South Korea
• East Asia has enjoyed a very strong expansion in trade.
• Russia and Ukraine, suppliers mainly of semi-finished steel for markets in Europe and the Middle East, registered only small increases.
1000
1200
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2200
2400
2600
European Union 27
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Exports of steel
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Turkey
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
United States
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
Brazil
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
Chinese Taipei
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
South Korea
Imports of steel
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
European Union 27
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
United States
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
China
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
Turkey
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300
500
700
900
1100
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1500
Thailand
• EU, the United States and Korea posted very robust growth in imports.
• Chinese imports declined considerably.
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Imports of steel
100
300
500
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1100
1300
Chinese Taipei
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600
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1000
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1400
India
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Canada
200
300
400
500
600
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800
Mexico
Steel trade balances
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan
/09
Mar
/09
May
/09
Jul/
09
Sep
/09
No
v/0
9
Jan
/10
Mar
/10
May
/10
Jul/
10
Sep
/10
No
v/1
0
EU (external trade)
Exports
Imports
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan
/09
Mar
/09
May
/09
Jul/
09
Sep
/09
No
v/0
9
Jan
/10
Mar
/10
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/10
Jul/
10
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/10
No
v/1
0
NAFTA (external trade)
Exports
Imports
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Jan
/09
Mar
/09
May
/09
Jul/
09
Sep
/09
No
v/0
9
Jan
/10
Mar
/10
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/10
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10
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/10
No
v/1
0
CIS
Exports
Imports
0
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/09
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09
Sep
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No
v/0
9
Jan
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No
v/1
0
South America
Exports
Imports
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7,000
8,000
9,000
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/09
Mar
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May
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Jul/
09
Sep
/09
No
v/0
9
Jan
/10
Mar
/10
May
/10
Jul/
10
Sep
/10
No
v/1
0
Asia (excl. China)
Exports
Imports
0
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3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan
/09
Mar
/09
May
/09
Jul/
09
Sep
/09
No
v/0
9
Jan
/10
Mar
/10
May
/10
Jul/
10
Sep
/10
No
v/1
0
China
Exports
Imports
• NAFTA’s strong growth in imports have led to a growing trade deficit.
• China recorded a trade surplus of 22.4 million tonnes in 2010, however, still lower than the 44 million tonnes recorded in 2008.
• EU’s surplus narrowed in 2010, as imports gained some momentum in response to increasing demand to feed the gradual export-led economic recovery.
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Steel Antidumping/CVD initiations
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
401
99
0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
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20
09
20
10
20
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Non OECD
OECD
Policy side: recent trade measures
• Import measures
– Brazil : Temporary tariff reduction on the ad-valorem import duty on product code 721090(limited to a quota of 800 tonnes) for reasons of shortage.
– Vietnam:The import licensing scheme was extended from the end of 2010 to the end of 2011.
• Antidumping cases
– Brazil started an investigation into the possible dumping of seamless pipes from China(December 2010).
– Russia initiated an antidumping investigation in against imports of pre-painted coil from China(February 2011).
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Share of steel product categories in
AD/CVD filings • Steel pipes and tubes have become increasingly
important in antidumping/CVD cases in recent years.
• This has occurred alongside strong growth in world exports of these products, particularly from Asia.
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10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1991-95 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-10
Alloy/stainless (excl. pipes)
Pipes & tubes
Long products
Cold & other flats
Hot rolled flats
Semi-finished
Steel trade structures
• China may have experienced a significant shift in their export structure towards higher quality steel, as seen in a much higher percent change in its unit value over the past five years compared to other major exporters.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Percent change
(2010/2006)
Japan 458.6 460.9 628.6 582.3 619.7 35.1
China 303.3 338.9 579.4 572.1 557.4 83.8
EU 667.6 753.6 915.7 802.0 811.0 21.5
Russia 262.0 298.0 435.1 291.8 341.7 30.4
Ukraine 241.7 281.4 431.0 277.8 362.0 49.8
Korea 474.8 490.8 641.2 544.6 635.2 33.8
Turkey 262.6 306.4 481.1 328.9 402.0 53.0
United States 701.4 670.7 785.9 870.7 903.3 28.8
Chinese Taipei 508.8 545.6 677.0 545.6 707.2 39.0
Brazil 297.5 321.9 474.8 356.8 419.0 40.8
World total 437.8 478.1 643.0 562.1 613.3 40.1
Unit value of steel exports
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Unit value of narrow steel product exports
Japan China EU Russia Ukraine Korea Turkey
United
States
Chinese
TaipeiBrazil
INGOTS 689 3,561 817 592 2,507 652 2,042 951 566 1,031
SEMIS 341 382 488 290 307 362 344 562 456 319
BARS AND ROD IN COILS 698 429 535 297 331 658 364 675 960 431
DEFORMED REINFORCING BARS 360 479 360 327 329 366 357 446 377 394
HOT ROLLED BARS AND FLATS 724 456 880 385 508 699 457 809 642 673
COLD FINISHED BARS AND FLATS 2,265 1,415 1,676 549 1,300 1,252 509 1,578 1,358 1,476
HOT ROLLED LIGHT SECTIONS 667 472 687 496 377 469 394 554 569 435
HOT ROLLED HEAVY SECTIONS 448 395 502 377 364 428 401 529 432 412
RAILS AND ROLLED ACCESSORIES 621 509 582 334 531 617 937 618 625 1,175
HOT ROLLED WIDE STRIP 458 445 529 341 344 531 415 523 477 369
HOT ROLLED PLATES 566 440 801 371 400 532 493 716 921 439
HOT ROLLED SHEETS 387 508 654 346 347 535 452 917 515 407
CR PLATE/SHEET:COILS/LENGTHS 622 653 992 417 410 647 580 971 907 580
HOT ROLLED STRIP 1,810 482 806 411 400 1,458 627 655 575 524
COLD ROLLED STRIP 3,696 825 1,757 478 417 1,192 733 1,185 1,182 1,269
TINPLATE AND TFS 732 671 687 638 559 751 752 554 726 693
ZINC COATED SHEET AND STRIP 577 507 586 544 541 589 563 628 533 894
OTHER COATED SHEET AND STRIP 960 564 867 773 834 699 750 984 618 948
ELECTRICAL SHEET 1,080 713 848 808 921 893 1,618 1,340 582 1,005
ELECTRICAL STRIP 1,970 874 1,191 597 272 850 1,381 1,090 726 1,043
STEEL TUBES, SEAMLESS 1,671 789 1,720 673 781 1,980 1,099 2,214 1,185 1,551
STEEL TUBES, WELDED 794 587 1,129 631 586 775 568 1,260 1,198 1,118
STEEL TUBE FITTINGS 9,240 1,545 5,161 4,354 3,592 3,095 2,912 8,627 3,552 34,825
WIRE 2,236 696 1,184 506 474 1,363 584 1,239 1,148 814
FORGED BARS 2,933 909 1,639 901 1,159 1,106 1,085 3,485 2,322 1,597
Are countries with lower unit values net
exporters of the product category?
(e.g. semi-finished steel)
– Russia and Ukraine have the lowest unit values , and these countries are large net exporters.
(e.g. electrical steel )
– Japan has relatively high unit values, yet it is a major net exporter.
Product innovation and how well the product is adapted to special needs may also be important factors that can influence demand.
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Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index
• What is Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index?
– An RCA index measures a given economy’s export share of a commodity compared with the world export share of that same commodity.
– If the RCA is greater than unity, the country is said to have a comparative advantage, and therefore specialisation, in the product.
RCA indices for the 10 largest steel exporters
2010Change
2010-062010
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2010-062010
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2010-062010
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2010-062010
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2010-062010
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2010-06
INGOTS 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 2.7 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.4 1.8 1.4 0.0 0.0
SEMIS 0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.9 0.4 0.0 3.3 0.6 2.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.7 1.0
BARS AND ROD IN COILS 0.6 0.1 0.9 -0.8 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.9 -0.3
DEFORMED REINFORCING BARS 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -1.0 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.2 1.7 0.0 0.5 0.3 6.7 -4.7 0.8 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.7 -0.2
HOT ROLLED BARS AND FLATS 0.7 0.1 1.6 0.8 0.8 -0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.2 1.4 -0.2 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.0
COLD FINISHED BARS AND FLATS 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 0.5 1.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.3 -0.1 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.2
HOT ROLLED LIGHT SECTIONS 0.2 -0.2 0.8 -0.2 1.2 0.3 0.3 -0.3 1.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 4.6 1.5 2.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.5
HOT ROLLED HEAVY SECTIONS 0.6 0.0 0.8 0.0 2.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.8 0.3 1.5 -0.3 1.0 0.7 1.6 -0.3 0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.3
RAILS AND ROLLED ACCESSORIES 1.4 -0.1 0.9 0.3 3.6 0.4 1.2 -0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.5 -1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
HOT ROLLED WIDE STRIP 1.4 0.0 1.1 0.3 0.7 -0.2 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 1.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.2 1.3 0.1 0.6 -0.1
HOT ROLLED PLATES 1.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.5 0.0 0.3 -0.1 1.2 -0.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.9 0.2
HOT ROLLED SHEETS 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 1.4 0.3 2.7 -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.6 -0.1 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.3
CR PLATE/SHEET:COILS/LENGTHS 1.3 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.6 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 1.8 -0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.0 2.5 -0.7 0.6 -0.3
HOT ROLLED STRIP 0.1 -0.1 0.9 -0.3 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 3.0 -0.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 -0.1
COLD ROLLED STRIP 0.3 -0.1 0.6 -0.5 2.0 0.6 0.6 -0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.6 0.0 1.7 0.3 0.2 -0.1
TINPLATE AND TFS 1.0 -0.1 0.9 0.7 2.6 -0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 -1.3 0.2 0.1 1.1 -0.3 1.0 0.1 0.9 -0.2
ZINC COATED SHEET AND STRIP 1.3 -0.3 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 -0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3 -0.1 1.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.2
OTHER COATED SHEET AND STRIP 0.3 -0.2 2.4 2.0 0.7 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 -1.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 -0.3 2.2 -0.7 0.0 -0.2
ELECTRICAL SHEET 2.0 -0.4 0.3 -0.1 1.9 0.9 1.1 -0.6 0.0 n.a. 2.0 -0.3 0.0 n.a. 1.8 0.2 4.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
ELECTRICAL STRIP 0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.1 2.4 -0.2 2.3 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 -0.8 1.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1
STEEL TUBES, SEAMLESS 0.7 -0.4 2.3 1.1 1.7 -0.8 0.3 -0.3 0.7 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.2
STEEL TUBES, WELDED 0.5 -0.3 1.0 0.0 1.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 1.2 0.1 1.6 0.0 1.4 -0.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 -0.1
STEEL TUBE FITTINGS 0.1 -0.1 3.0 0.8 1.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 -0.4 0.2 0.1 1.5 -0.4 0.7 -0.2 0.0 0.0
WIRE 0.3 0.0 1.7 0.7 1.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.9 -0.4 0.5 0.3 0.9 -0.2 0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.0
FORGED BARS 0.2 -0.2 1.8 0.6 3.9 1.1 0.2 -1.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0
Turkey United States Chinese Taipei BrazilJapan China EU Russia Ukraine Korea
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RCA indices by product
• Semi-finished products
– Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine all have high RCA values
– China’s specialisation appears to have declined significantly.
• Long steel products
– The EU, Turkey, and the United States seem to be strong in products like bars and sections.
– Turkey’s specialisation may change in the future as capacity for flat steelmaking increases.
RCA indices by product(cont’d)
• Flat steel products
– The EU, Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei are relatively strong exporters.
– China’s specialisation appears to have declined significantly.
• Tubes
– The EU and the United States have traditionally been the biggest players, but specialisation in tubular products appears to have declined in these economies.
– China’s importance has risen very rapidly in recent years.